Forex Signal (Friday March 9, 2012 - 8:30am EDT) - US NFP Employment Change

Stavro D'Amore

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
547
Hello

Please see m trade plan for today’s NFP employment change, US unemployment rate is forecasted to arrive at 8.3% today we will be trading the Unemployment change number

US NFP Employment Change
Forecast 210K
Previous 243K
Pair to trade: USD/JPY
Triggers we need: SELL -60 BUY +60

Economic Impact: High
Typical Result: Forecast is good for the currency
Occurrence: Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends

About our Triggers:
If the US NFP Employment Change number comes out at +270 or more, the USD/JPY should go up by about 40 pips. We are using a deviation of +60 for the Long.
If it comes out at 150 or less USD/JPY should go down by about 45 pips. We are using -60 to trigger to determine our short position entry.


What is it? Why do we care?
The Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States.
It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered offering the best overview of the economy.
The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Method to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

See my views on the Euro crisis

Pre News
Prior to the news release (20 minutes) I will be looking for a short term LONG position in EUR/USD and I will get out of this trade 2 minute before the actual release earlier. I will look for momentum indicators to see my long trade.

Spike
Yes. I would recommend spike trading as an option.

After Spike
If you are not spike trading or if you did do a spike trade and your already out, I will look for a 30% retrace in the original spike before entering a trade again. I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a level, looking at a 15 min chart. The main indicator I will use for this retrace is Fibonacci

Historical Chart and Data for US NFP Employment Change

All the best

Stavro D’Amore
 
Back
Top