Discuss SuperTradeSystem.com

[Pharaoh]

Looks like some of the old gang is back!

I can't wait to see that book. I definitely vote for "Why Your Trading Sucks" as the title.

 

[Cyclon]

Looks like some of the old gang is back!
I can't wait to see that book. I definitely vote for "Why Your Trading Sucks" as the title.

Heh Pharaoh good to virtually see you again too!

I was hoping for some more votes but thanks for yours which is weighty indeed.

Here is a long overdue example of some of the improvements
to STAR which I mentioned.

STAR is a reversal system with entries early in a new trend on
a prime retracement of the early pullbacks of an exhausted trend.

This gives low drawdown and risk is therefore minimized and
price moving away fairly quickly from the entry is what every
trader likes. Using your equity on the retracement side of a
reversal is better because you know where your stops will be
and you don't have to watch the reversal argument between
the bulls and bears.

We can use this in both directions though.

There was an H4 setup on the uptrend in AUD/JPY that had
already shown the traits fulfilled so at a certain pullback depth
we will read the signal. Last evening this did pullback to the
threshold of the criteria.

That pullback (down) also became a setup of its own on M5
and when reading the signal it came up Continuation.

Now at some point I had to go to sleep but our members
in the Eurozone and South Africa discussed a new pullback
to the downtrend M5 setup as an even faster uptrend setup
on M1. Now we are talking fast because the new speed was
.202 on M1 so this changes our tools Fibbo family of indis
to an effective speed of 12.12 seconds.

This is now done as a global change all at once and by making
the speed multiplier .202 it was the slowest speed in which
the traitset would remain valid to criteria.

This is done using a tool called a 52s traitset tool which is
our bread and butter because markets are predominently
in corrective formations most of the time. When they do
come out of shell-shock jitters and give followthrough it
is obvious and we have another tool for that.

The tool and traitset for corrections is a simpler one and
built for more frequent reversals. Here is the latest tool
showing the traits for the fast M1 setup:

In the middle of that uptrend is a trait which is a main
regulator for speed matching with our Fibbo Family of
indicators and the behavior displayed as a result of price
action gives a FLIP of the indis. We call that trait a FLIP.

You may only have one flip in a valid traitset. Those orange
and black arrows show that the slowest indi has flipped and
are now accurate to the full Metatrader internal precision of
8 places. Our speed multiplier is a 3 place setting.

Then after that flip in the middle there is another trait and
that is a cut which is when the thin gold crosses the fat red.

All the traits are collected in a sequence and everything has
a very basic type of criteria like those.

At the high on that setup tool's chart the traitset is complete
and matches all criteria. It's pretty basic.

What has happened however is not basic at all. At least not
in last-bar TA-land. That traitset being complete was a way
to show exhaustion but at the speed of the market. Not at my
whim of what timeframe, TA setup and my special sauce s
ettings that I always like (none of which means anything to
the market which changes speed to get its job done).

Obviously that is a fast move. Is your setup fast or slow?
You cannot tell me. So you cannot compare it to the data.

Yeah, Technical Analysis is Data Analysis. Know any data
analysts with 95% fail rates? Employed ones I mean?

No that's because it's bad math to allow unknown variables
into equations. Seriously do you know to 3 places if your
technical (data) setup is matched to the move's speed?

Do you know what the speed controls are in your analysis?

I guarantee that your favorite setup or your EA has already
declared its "speed of analysis" and I can prove it. Whether
it is 1.000 or not if you only choose a timeframe that is how
you are using it and it won't match up well with a .202 speed
market movement.

STAR matches the speed first and only then performs an analysis.

That is the only true way to analyze the data in a meaningful way.

The kicker: Every move chooses a new speed.

Now about the analysis. Since you have a potential reversal you
want to know its speed and take the analysis in a way that will
balance the old trend's speed with the new move's speed.

That information is only in one place... the market itself. You have
to get it there.

After the traitset is complete and a pullback happens we evaluate
it to get that information out of the market at that exact location
because as you may imagine with changing speeds there is not
any rigid one-size-fits-all technique that is any good.

We will use a tool built with a full set of two Fibbo Families and
look for one of the oldest things, an MA cross. The periods of the
indis of the 2 sets in each Fibbo Family are arranged as pairs.

There is an EMA set and an SMA set on this tool. The fastest in
each set is Plum and the slowest in each set is Gold. What we
will do is find the nearest color matched pair to the pullback end.

Here is the pullback evaluation on the setup and there are of
course some hard fixed criteria we apply so it is all objective.
That little boxed red up-arrow was added to show where the
pullback's end or extreme was located.

(Some of the fast EMA's hide at a virtual 12 second speed but we
know the cross takes place in order and can tell Red is the nearest
cross here. The faster ones cross first, then slower ones etc.).

With the info from the market that Red crossed we call
up our signal tool. It is the X-factor tool that has the
settings for Red built-in. This is a Continuation signal
but we may pursue alternate trades with good risk/reward
using the faster X-factors which also crossed within a set
criteria.

Trying the next faster, the Magenta did give the go ahead
(by criteria) for an alternate trade if it would trigger in the
correct way. That did happen on the next faster X-factor
which was the Aqua. Here is that triggered signal:

The lime and purple arrows are accurate to 8 places and
show that criteria has been met for the alternate trade.

The actual risk was 2.6 pips plus spread. The actual
drawdown was 1.6 pips. So far still running at over
85 pips. Here is the resulting move. Do you have the
pips in your pocket and the way to gage the speed of
this move? (As I said I was fast asleep but I do have
the tools to do it all again up and down).

The book will go into the problems with TA in more depth
but some people won't care - they just want to know if
there is a solution. Speed matching is the only solution
because of speed changes. STAR is a solution.

So I wanted to let you know a bit about the way it works
because it works and some of the new improvements.
The standard STAR implementation would not have
identified this setup and given a nice way to rejoin the
existing downtrend on the M5 setup (which also uses
3 place speed multiplier for its traitset).

Cheers,
Cyclon

 

[CTGUY]

Thank you for the excellent posting Cyclon. I still say this is the BEST forex trading system available to traders. Many of us appreciate your introducing this system to us a few years ago. Also thanks for the great forum that has fantastic member and admin support.

 

[Cyclon]

The Trouble with Today's Technical Analysis

Well I was going to write this in a book as I last posted. It seemed to be better that
it be in video form so that is what I did.


NEW VIDEO: The Trouble with Today's Technical Analysis


I know technical videos are not always fun to watch. My ability in making videos and
my voice may make you cringe ...BUT...


If there is one video that every person who calls themselves a trader needs, yes, needs
to watch it is this one.


It was quite a project to plan, script and 'shoot' this. It is in my opinion more important
than the new elliott wave rule.


You can see this on my Supertradersclub youtube channel.
http://supertradersclub.com/info/ytube_fpa.htm


Hope it makes you sit up and take notice.




ALSO: STAR is in the process of being repackaged to a new version which
you see in the video.

STAR Owners, Go to http://supertradersclub.com to pick up your new version.

Please bear with any transition lags between my sites as I update things in
the different pages on the different sites and sections.

STAR Owners will be emailed about this.

 

[Cyclon]

There was a not so busy thread in a busy fx forum

There was a not so busy thread in a busy fx forum that
revealed a human part of traders (as well as some
newbie-ness). The title was something like, "Can you
sleep while you are holding any position?".

After 3 months and 16 replies that gave no more than an
opportunity to participate in a discussion, this came:

trade lot size that is good size for You... and sleep well!

Finally after all that the position size! Thank you "fxmember"!

You know there is something I observe in humans & traders.

We seek an element which is 'the illusion' of control.
Trading is a great thing for fooling ourselves into
thinking we will be able to do some things and gain
the satisfaction of that desire.

I should inform you of something now which will save you
the inevitable disappointment. True control is not there
and the market is always the boss.

However the risk control of position sizing is another and
more professional trade planning method that does let you
take the control - over yourself.

If you want to get a real nice money management and trade
handling technique that will control Fear and Greed at the
SAME time plus let you sleep all the way to the bank
watch this Youtube Video, The Trouble with Today's Technical Analysis.

Nothing like having free riding positions.

It's about just past half way into the video.

Cheers,
Cyclon

 

[Cyclon]

Announcements for STAR Owners

There are some key announcements for STAR Forex Trading System Owners.


I am sending out emails but in case you see this first or yours did not get through,


There is a Completely New Version of STAR.

So in case you missed the email...


Get Your New STAR Upgrade

Watch STAR Video on Youtube


​

Cheers,
TS Hennessy
(Cyclon)

 

[witzcowitz]

I recently subscribed to Tom Hennessy's trade copier SuperTradeSystem, i.e. his 100% accuracy system, in which Hennessy himself, the designer of the system, places trades and remote copies them to subscribers. The following image shows the abysmal result from a man who, as stated in another post, is either deluded or in reality has no idea how to trade. Suffice to say, the market is the market and Hennessy's MAs are the same as any other MA, they paint a picture of the PAST, it's all history.





Hennessy, in his wisdom, traded mostly only one pair, AUDGBP, then failed to manage any of the trades even to achieve a break-even result. About 25% of the losing trades had at one time a reasonable profit, but Hennessy chose to ignore them and not advance the SL, ensuring that all those trades which he opened in the prevailing sideways market ended in substantial losses. The man is an idiot.

My recommendation? Don't go near anything Tom Hennessy tries to sell you, it will cost dearly and provide only disappointment, he should be imprisoned for fraud or better still, shot.

 

[Cyclon]

Fibonacci Festival over at the Forex Market Tent.

This week there's a Fibonacci Festival over at the Forex Market Tent and you're invited.

I've put together a video to show just how much Fibonacci is really under-girding price reversal points.
Actually that was just one of the takeaways of my accidental discovery ( previously unknown not just to me, but everybody else too ).


CLICK IMAGE TO Watch This VIDEO

(it's a Fibonacci Festival like you won't believe and have NEVER Seen - no matter HOW much experience you've got).

 

[Cyclon]

BTW... The Fibonacci that is detailed in that video (previous post) is of a different sort than the Fibonacci Retracement variety most commonly seen.

The actual topic of the video is the Forex market's best kept secret (and as I said, I never knew it until I stumbled over it by accident)...

I'll preview the secret for you:

Each Base Currency has its OWN unique frequency and it is a Fibonacci Ratio.

What does that mean?

Only that if as we place a standard technical indicator or indicator group on a chart it will ignore these DIFFERENT base currency running speeds and treat them as though they are all the same - and they are DEFINITELY NOT.

 

[Cyclon]

STAR is a reversal system [post includes Money Management]

I got an email with a question and it is fairly common (I will update my site's FAQ). The person asked how trades are reversed in STAR. In the reply we can see not only the answer but a preview of our actual training and why I have suggested all traders adopt this form of Money Management...

Here is a pic of one trade that took place a few hours ago. It shows items referenced below and the setup has been in our watchlist as a developing possibility for 13 days and it was marked WAITING (for trigger) yesterday and once it did trigger it was also given notice in our chat a few minutes afterwards (collaboration is a great thing).

Quickly (in less than an hour) it went into the first profit target and as I write this it has continued to storm forward for about 200 pips.

Here is the answer I sent to his question:


STAR is a reversal system and is used the same at both ends however not for the full trade lot, there are intermediate profits taken.


We have a resource that you get with the system for criteria facts and other reference needs called the STAR Setup Checklist. Here below is the text from the last 2 pages of the STAR Setup Checklist which details the money management and trade handling.



[Note: For what you read here you would already know that once a traitset (STAR speed matching signature) is fully meeting criteria, any pullback against that trend that also meets another separate criteria would tell you to evaluate for a signal. The existing trend's price extreme and the extent of the current pullback against that trend are referenced below as Trend Extreme (TX) and Pullback Extreme (PX).]

I included a pic to show you these references on a Eur/Nzd trade that triggered a couple hours ago at the check mark on 2nd latest bar shown at 1.54648 going LONG. I marked these TX and PX references with "X" - the trend extreme (Lowest on left) and the pullback extreme above that (a high near middle). The 1st Take Profit 1 has already been hit for hundreds of pips... read on:

----------------------


Money Management and Trade Handling


A maximum 3% of equity is suggested and controlled through
position sizing. You should take your risk to the trend extreme as
your stoploss and figure a total of 3% of your equity which that
much risk represents to your equity. Split 1% of equity across
each of 3 separate partials at the trigger.


Set stoploss at former trend extreme on all 3 partials. [NOTE: You
may use an additional 5 pips if you wish to save occasional minor
trend extreme breaches which may or may not be due to
manipulation or just formation norms. Statistically the gains on
runners from there in your intended direction VS. the extra 5 pips
loss on each one which substantially stops out tends to become
somewhat balanced in positive favor over time due to STAR's low
drawdown entries.]


The 1st target for the trade is the pullback extreme price and
called Take Profit 1 or TP1. Set Take Profit for 1st partial at the
pullback extreme.


Partial 2 and 3 Take Profit levels are not set at this time.


If 1st Target hits (usually do) 1st partial comes off automatically in
profit. At this point set partial 2's stop to break even and leave
partial 3's stop at trend extreme where it is.


You now have only 1% equity at risk yet 2% has potential! You
have also banked at least 1%, usually more.


Now you are sitting in a very lucrative position but you are still
human so we will satisfy the desire for profit AND a good
trading addage which is very hard to put into practice:


"Let your winners run".


When the next STRONG move comes beyond the 1st target you
will take partial 2 off and move partial 3's stop to the 1st target
area. This is not defined because it may be whatever makes you
happy. Draw a line, use a trailing stop or whatever you wish. No
need to fret because it is partial 3 slated for the long runs.


Partial 3 is let ride until you are in substantial profit or it stops out
IN PROFIT at TP1. In the case that the run moves you into
substantial profit, then and only then, once the system shows a
nice setup to reverse it you will take that profit and the new
opposing trade.


If the scale of that last part is growing into a much bigger move
the STAR speed signature catching mechanism (matching traits)
will show that it is and you can let ride more.


The usual profitable outcome will have gained at least 3%, usually
MUCH more and risked no more than 3%.


All of that functions identically in slow or fast, choppy or trendy
market formations and speeds so it will become routine and
render the fear and greed harmless. This is not to say that
production is always uniform but your method will be. The market
always dictates production, all else being equal.
ENJOY!


Let some of your trader colleagues know about STAR by posting
favorable posts and reviews on your favorite forex forums or
blogs. Most traders are still unaware that their TA is 17th Century
and they really value your opinion.


TS Hennessy




----------------------

Yeah, that's what I want!


Cheers,
Cyclon

Get STAR at Supertradesystem