฿ Bitcoin BTC/USD Weekly, August 13 - 17, 2018

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
18,551
Greetings guys,

Here is our update on BTC. On Friday we've said that it would be nice if we get B&B "Sell" pattern on daily chart. For this puprose market needs to show 3/8 upside retracement, but previously we had no signs of it.

As panic on the market is calming down a bit, BTC starts to form bullish pattern on hourly chart - this is reverse H&S. I'm not sure that it makes sense to go long here, but if BTC will climb to major 3/8 resistance area - this will be chance to sell with daily B&B pattern. Also take a look at Friday chart above - it will be simpler to understand the whole picture.

BTC_1h_13_08_18.png
 
Good morning,

Market has failed to complete our H&S pattern on hourly chart. That's why now we need to increase analysis scale and return back to daily picture and our major 1.27 butterfly. Here also we have two different AB=CD patterns with the same target circa 4400$:

BTC_d_14_08_18.png


Technically everything looks OK, but major concern here is how BTC price will response to 5500-5800$ level which is mining average expense breakeven point...

Another pattern that we have is hourly 3-Drive "Buy" that is forming right around the lows and it is based on failed H&S pattern. But I do not like acceleration right to 3rd Drive bottom.
BTC_1h_14_08_18.png


While our major pattern here that we're watching for is B&B "Sell" on daily, that is still could be formed. Trading of 3-Drive "Buy" guys, is up to you. Wait at least appearing of clear bullish pattern on 15 min chart around 3rd Drive bottom...

Breaking of 5800 lows will lead BTC to 4400 probably.
 
Morning everybody,

BTC stands at major daily 5500 - 5800$ support and nobody knows how BTC could react on breakout of this level, which is also mining expenses breakeven price.

Meantime, our 3-Drive pattern behaves well as upward action has started. Now we have inner AB-CD 1.618 target of 6437$, but 3-Drive itself needs to push price above the top between 2nd and 3rd drives to be completed. This is classical approach to 3-Drive trading.
BTC_1h_15_08_18.png


If this will happen, we again will turn to our daily B&B "Sell" setup, because major 3/8 Fib level and 3-Drive target stands rather close to each other:
BTC_d_15_08_18.png
 
Greetings everybody,

Our 3-Drive pattern is completed. So we still could keep an eye on daily B&B "Sell" trade that we've discussed yesterday. Now, as market has formed bullish upside reversal swing, it is logically to suggest AB-CD shape of retracement.

If BTC is really bullish in short-term - it should form "222" Buy pattern, otherwise downward action will continue:
BTC_1h_16_08_18.png
 
Good morning,

So, guys right now we have two setups on the table. First one is potential B&B "Sell" on daily chart, but probably we postpone it on next week and second - our scenario with "222" Buy pattern on 1H.

As we've said yesterday - we watch for AB=CD downward retracement because market has formed upside reversal swing and existed bearish momentum could trigger deeper retracement. This in turn should give us "222" pattern.

Now we have more details on this issue. AB=CD target stands right around major 5/8 Fib support 6160$ area.
Also take a look - upward action (red lines) yesterday was bearish "222" Sell. Thus 6160 will be crucial area for BTC bulls. They need to hold price above it. BTC failure and drop back to lows will increase chances on further drop on daily chart....
BTC_1h_17_08_18.png
 
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