Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, December 10-14, 2018

[Stag]

Morning guys,

As usual - Stag is the best. While we're flirting up and down, he identifies the shape correctly! Good work.

Thanks, buddy, but I'm just a guest (instead of best ) here. But you, Sive, you are indeed the best.

 

[gwynfor]

Thanks, buddy, but I'm just a guest (instead of best ) here. But you, Sive, you are indeed the best.

Much as I appreciate Stag's contribution I agree with his sentiment here.

In fact the more I read (and learn from,)all the contributions here the more fasciniating it becomes. My special interest is finding EW patterns matching Sive's analysis, and how different styles can sometimes match and come up with the same answer.

I adopted Stag's bullish triangle scenario as my alt black count in my post earlier this week. My main concern from an EW point of view is something I have read in Gorman & Kennedeys visual guide, referring to a triangle's subwaves " Only one of those subwaves can be complex, meaning strung out over time, and that subwave is normally Wave C, D or E" If I read Stag's chart correctly his B wave seems to me to be complex. However with Brexit perhaps "normally" isn't much help!

I suspect the market reaction to ECB later will resolve this as Sive says. My maroon count has the triangle complete at 1.1440, leaving me with a 1,2,i,ii count from that point on. If the market passes above 1.14 that count is wiped out and as far as I can see my maroon count goes with it.

Which brings me back to Sive's analysis - my invalidation point at 1.1400 matched his point C on the hourly chart above !

So while I stick with my short trade for now, it's time to tighten my stop again. Thanks guys.

 

[Stag]

...In fact the more I read (and learn from,)all the contributions here the more fasciniating it becomes...

That's the whole point of showing our different views !

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

So we've got ECB, now all eye on Fed next week. As we've discussed with you - Draghi comments indeed were dovish. He said that policy will remain accommodative, despite formal QE close and perspective of growth in EU are weak and this is understandable in current circumstances.

So, EUR continues to follow external driving factors, mostly political, of different kind and doesn't have any fundamental inner direction. Still two days ago we had to cancel our bearish context due appearing of bullish grabber on daily chart and irrational price behavior that doesn't match to normal bearish market.

Today price action shows that we were correct in this decision. Thus, on 4H chart we've got another grabber. Potentially we could get AB=CD pattern that should lead us to the triangle border around 1.1415 area:

On 1H chart we see that reaction on ECB was negative but not dramatic. Market has shown normal 5/8 pullback and this was expected as we've talked yesterday about probable dovish ECB comments. This is again confirms that context hardly is bearish. Otherwise, these ECB comments should be enough to trigger downside continuation.
Now we have most part of our H&S pattern in place. Recent lows are tweezers and this is invalidation point for our short-term bullish context. Breaking of this lows will cancel 4H grabber, and will be not normal for bullish context. If you do not have long position at 5/8 Fib support - now we could watch for minor "222" Buy to make another attempt on long entry against tweezers lows. Very small risk here.

 

[Robban68]

1.1322 still defended. Yesterdays close was 1 pip above, but it seems to be a difficult task to protect, since the November monthly close was lower it suggest to test the low within next period( December).

Here we go, Normal week range has som more room, 1.126
.Last week close 1.1397, Month 1.1322, Levels to track for todays close (17:30CET)

 

[Stag]

I always have an alternate scenario, but considering the larger decline, the bearish triangle scenario simply does not fit into the sequence we see unfolding off 1.1815. Does not necessarily mean it can't be, just my "wavy eyes" make me think it can't be bearish.

Regarding the alternate, at a minimum, I'd look for a wave D. Once we have it completed, a drop below wave C at 1.1306 would be needed to suggest the bullish view failed and we have a bearish one instead - that's my alternate scenario.

Sticking to the primary, let's take a closer look at what may unfold and why (along with a nice example of the KCT technique):

View attachment 40794

By breaking below 1.1306 the scenario has become invalid. The sudden drop is possibly part of a still unfolding complex correction. 1.14 is still on the table but I do not have a proper counting yet.

What I'm sure about is it's Friday, so...