ATFX Market Updates 2019

Personal opinions today

The US March CPI and core CPl results will be released tomorrow, with data reflect the U.S. first-quarter inflation and the Fed's monetary policy in future. As long as the CPl recorded growth above market expectations, it may stimulate market investment confidence and change the Fed's suspension of interest rate hikes, it could further boost the dollar. Just ahead of the data and minutes from the FOMC minutes, the dollar had a slight correction.

All the financial reports to watch today and tomorrow, the most notable is the IMF's latest world growth forecast. If the report showed the global economy slowdown, particularly in the United States, could hurt the dollar. If the dollar falls, European currencies, commodity currencies and gold have a chance to rise, while oil prices have a chance to fall. Another report, API will release its crude oil inventory. If the short term energy outlook declines and crude oil inventory increases unexpectedly, the crude oil price may be decline.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
13:45 Swiss unemployment rate in March
18:00 U.S. NFIB small business sentiment index in March
21:00 the IMF releases its latest world growth forecast
The next day 0:00 EIA monthly short-term energy outlook
The next day 4:30 U.S. API crude oil inventories


Today's suggestion:
EURUSD

1.1270/1.1285 resistance
1.1230/1.1215 support
U.S. March CPl data, ECB monetary policy decisions and ECB press conference released tomorrow. ECB President speech and monetary policy orientation, become the focus of the market. It is estimated that the eurozone economy needs to bear the downside risks by Brexit, and the euro will be affected. Technically, the euro is adjusting against the dollar to break out of resistance at $1.1250 but has rebounded 38.2 per cent and 50 per cent to trade at $1.1285 and $1.1310, respectively. If the ECB's monetary policy remains accommodative, the recommended headwinds mentioned above will be key. And the euro could also test important support at 1.1185.

GBPUSD
1.3070/1.3120 resistance
1.3000/1.2960 support
This week marks a pivotal moment for Britain, with the Brexit deadline on Friday. While the House of Commons has rejected the UK's no-deal Brexit, the EU could also veto the UK's application for an extension. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, known as a "hard Brexit", it could trigger turmoil in European markets. First, the pound could fall. It is estimated that in the next three days, there will be an update in the afternoon local time in the UK, which will affect the short-term fluctuations of the pound. Please keep on eyes, look at the progress. Technically, the initial target resistance range of 1.3070 and 1.3120 is expected. As long as there is no break through the important resistance of 1.1370, the support of 1.3000 and 1.2960 can be referred.

USDCHF
1.0005/1.0030 resistance
0.9975/0.9960 support
The Brexit story remains unclear, with the dollar currently trading above 0.9975 against the Swiss franc, extending resistance to 1.0005. If the dollar is weak at this point and the dollar is trading at 0.9975 and 0.9960 against the Swiss franc, it could move in a tight range against the Swiss franc, depending on the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and FOMC minutes. The technical reference between 1.0005, 1.0030 resistance and 0.9975, 0.9960 support, waiting for a breakthrough.

USDJPY
111.55/111.70 resistance
111.25/111.05 support
China and the US will enter another phase of their trade negotiations, where the two sides will hold a video conference to discuss to revise the final trade agreement. A Chinese spokesman said the talks needed patience and looked forward to concluding in May. As the negotiations were not completed and investment sentiment cooled, the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nikkei index fell respectively, and the dollar also fell against the yen in line with the stock market trend. Technically, the psychological resistance of the dollar against the yen remains at 112. However, under the changing market sentiment, the USDJPY testing the support level reference 111.25 and 111.05 support. Key support at 110.95.

AUDUSD
0.7145/0.7165 resistance
0.7105/0.7085 support
China and the US have concluded trade negotiations, and the overall progress is good, but the two sides still have not decided when to end the trade war date, the trend of the Australian dollar may be adjusted. Technically, 0.7145 and 0.7165 are important resistance level references. A negative U.S. news could lift the AUDUSD, testing resistance at 0.7145 or 0.7165. But the AUD is likely to move in a tight range against the USD in the short term until the market get the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results.

NZDUSD
0.6745/0.6770 resistance
0.6720/0.6695 support
The NZD continued to move lower against the U.S. dollar after trade talks between China and the US ended without an agreement. Technically, the reference resistance to the dollar was 0.6745 and 0.6775. Reference support bits 0.6720 and 0.6695. It is worth mentioning that the February low is 0.6720, if the broken support, the trend may be further lower. The dollar is likely to rise and fall in a tight range against the dollar in the short term, according to the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and the Fed minutes outcome.

USDCAD
1.3350/1.3375 resistance
1.3305/1.3280 support
The crude oil prices were climbing to $64, a positive for the Canadian dollar. Before the EIA's monthly short-term energy outlook and U.S. API crude inventories for the week ended April 5 results, limited the rise in the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD key support levels are 1.3305 and 1.3280, with reference resistance at 1.3350 and 1.3375. Watching the oil market news update today and tomorrow, how’s affected the Canadian dollar.

XAUUSD
1303/1305 resistance
1294/1292 support
U.S. non-farm payrolls returned to normal in March, but average hourly wages fell at a monthly rate and at an annual rate, slowing wage growth and limiting the dollar's gains, gold prices rebounded from its lows. Moreover, gold prices will be determined by the risk of a hard Brexit. Brexit is still not clear, and time is approaching, the gold price yesterday rose to $1,303 resistance. At present, the sentiment may continue to heat up, gold prices significantly downward adjustment opportunity rate is not high. Preliminary estimates show gold prices consolidating between 1292 and 1294 support levels, with reference resistance at 1303 and 1305.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
64.60/65.05 resistance
64.05/63.65 support
The EIA releases its monthly short-term energy outlook tonight and API and EIA crude inventories for last week will be released tomorrow. If the short-term energy outlook is negative and crude oil inventories increase significantly, the rise in crude oil prices may be limited and accompanied by a correction. In addition, the U.S. market is evaluating the March CPl and core CPl, crude prices are likely to adjust their gains, with a chance to test the support of an initial target of $63.65.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26345/26480 resistance
26130/26055 support
The Dow Jones industrial average was hit by the lack of final results from trade talks and is awaiting U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and Fed minutes released tomorrow. Market investment climate turned prudent, the U.S. Dow trend adjustment. The initial support bits are 26130 and 26055. In terms of resistance levels, refer to last Friday's high of 26480 and the 4-hour moving average of 26345.

BTCUSD:
5080 / 5200 resistance
4760 / 4600 support
The Brexit risk is leading the bitcoin price rose, but the US non-farm payrolls data recovered in March, the bitcoin price will fall. The market is waiting for the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results. Before these data and the FOMC minutes, the bitcoin price will be limited to go further up and maybe downward.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
 
Forex markets are quiet, and even more so the EURUSD. Since March 28, the price has been oscillating around the 1.1220 level in a 71-pip range and using the daily Average True Range indicator (14), we need to go back to September 2014 to find a similarly quiet episode, and preceding that, the summer of 2007. However, as I will outline below, I suspect we might see a rebound in volatility as early as Wednesday when the ECB hosts its third-rate meeting for the year in Frankfurt.

In 2014, the low volatility period lasted from the start of July 2014 to the first week of September, but both in 2014 and 2007, volatility picked up sharply following the quiet period, and I expect the same for the future.

From a technical point of view, it looks like the EURUSD will trade sideways for longer, and as long as the price trades above its 2019 low of 1.1175, I suspect the price might drift towards 1.14, and be capped by the March 20 swing high of 1.1447. However, my preferred scenario is for the Euro to trade below its 2019 low, and maybe even as early as this week.

I am bearish based on the lack of a rebound in European economic activity. The U.S. and China, have been seen sharp rebounds in their leading indicators such as the PMIs. However, the Euro area has seen the opposite, and it looks like Germany will not be able to escape a third quarter of zero to negative growth.

In the summer quarter of 2018, German GDP contracted by -0.2%, followed by zero growth in the fourth quarter. German Manufacturing PMI was around the 57 mark in July 2018, at the latest March reading it had dropped below the 50-threshold of boom and bust, and landed at 44.10. German annual inflation over the same period dropped from 1.9% to 1.3%.

Euro area indicators are not much better with annual inflation at 1.4% and in a downtrend, while manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.50 from near 55 in July 2018.

The lack of a strong Euro area inflation and most likely lower growth in the months ahead skews the risk lower for the EUR/USD as U.S. indicators have held up better.

Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls was not enough to send the Euro lower, but this Wednesday we might see a repeat of last month’s ECB rate meeting when the Euro traded lower by 129 pips. If the same were to happen, the EURUSD would be trading at a new 2019 low, and I suspect we might see the price trade to the next major support level at the May 12, 2017 low of 1.0857, as long as the price remains below April’s current high of 1.1254. If I am right on my view and the EURUSD slides below its 2017 low, then the market would be offering a 3.85 times risk-reward ratio trade.

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EURUSD Daily Chart

Alejandro Zambrano is ATFX’s Global Chief Market Strategist, and he combines extensive professional experience and a pragmatic attitude to trading, building clients’ understanding of the markets and the rationale behind investing.


Before joining ATFX, Zambrano was the Chief Market Strategist of the FCA regulated broker, Amana Capital. Prior to that he was also the Head Analyst at FXCM’s London research desk. Zambrano has been using his invaluable experience to research the financial markets with a special focus on currencies and macroeconomics, throughout his career. He also covers commodity markets and equity indices. Working for various brokers, Zambrano also developed premium educational programs, and hundreds of people have attended his courses throughout the years.

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This market update was provided with an educational purpose, and is the personal opinion of Alejandro Zambrano, and not to viewed as trading advice by ATFX or Red Castle Ideas LTD.
 
Personal opinions today

The IMF has cut its global economic forecast, said the trade war between the United States and China is a slowing down on global growth. The report showed that the US economic growth will slow down from 2.5‬ per cent to 2.3 per cent this year. However, they pointed out that China's economic and financial reform, help stimulate China's economic growth. In addition, the international monetary fund said that the European economy may be affected by the Brexit, the economic slowdown continues. The overall economic forecast said it expects global growth to slow, but is positive for Asian growth forecast. Around the time of the report, the dollar fell to 96.8, gold prices rose to $1,306 and crude oil fell below $64. In line with this analysis yesterday, note that the IMF's latest forecasts may affect the performance of the dollar.

Markets were particularly focused today on the European central bank's interest rate decision and the press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi. If the ECB and the President, Mario Draghi, expressed the targeted long-term refinancing program (TLTRO) will reduce downside risks to the euro zone economy. It will boost the euro and other European currencies. Another market focus, US consumer price index CPI and core CPI in March. The data will influence the direction of the dollar and the market's view on the minutes of the federal open market committee's March 19-20 policy meeting, please pay attention at 02:00‬ the next day.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
14:45 France February industrial output monthly rate‬
16:00 China March M2 money supply annual rate‬
16:30 UK February GDP monthly rate in three months‬
16:30 UK February quarterly trade account‬
16:30 UK industrial and manufacturing output monthly rate in February‬
19:45 European central bank interest rate decision‬
20:30 European central bank President Mario Draghi held a press conference‬
20:30 US quarter adjustment CPI monthly rate in March‬
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending April 5‬
the next day 2:00‬ FOMC policy announced on March 19-20 minutes

Today's suggestion :

EURUSD

1.1270/1.1285 resistance
1.1230/1.1215 support
Markets were particularly focused on the European central bank's interest rate decision and the press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi. If the ECB and its President, Mario Draghi, say ECB will maintain the size of their existing TLTRO and address downside risks to the euro zone economy. It will boost the euro and other European currencies. Technically, EURUSD break out the resistance 1.1250 will test 1.1285 and 1.1310, respectively. 1.1230 and 1.1215 is short-term reference support.

GBPUSD
1.3085/1.3120 resistance
1.3020/1.2985 support
The deadline for Britain to leave the European Union is set to expire on Friday, with parliament agreeing to ask the EU for an extension until June 30‬, even as the UK parliament rejected a no-deal Brexit. The news comes as European commission commissioners have said they may extend the time, but the UK cannot take part in EU elections and conference votes. If finally confirmed, it will help boost the pound. The latest news will be released in the afternoon local time in the UK every day, which will affect the short-term fluctuations of the pound. It is suggested to keep an eye on the situation. Technically, 1.3120 is expected to be the important resistance, 1.1370 is the important resistance of the upper level, and 1.3020 and 1.2985 are supported by the reference below.

USDCHF
1.0005/1.0030 resistance
0.9975/0.9960 support
The dollar is currently trading in a tight range against the Swiss franc, pending the results of the U.S. CPl and core CPl in March and FOMC minutes. Technical reference 1.0005 and 1.0030 resistance, 0.9975 and 0.9960 as reference support, waiting for a break in the trend of the dollar, indirect impact on the Swiss franc.

USDJPY
111.25/111.40 resistance
110.95/110.80 support
The IMF said the European economy may be affected by the Brexit, the economic slowdown continues, global economic growth is expected to slow, the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average and global stock markets fell. The dollar also fell to 96.8. The market looked at the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and minutes from the FOMC's policy meeting. Before the results were released, the dollar testing key support levels of 110.95 and 110.80 against the yen.

AUDUSD
0.7145/0.7165 resistance
0.7105/0.7085 support
The IMF said it expects global economic growth to slow, but is positive for Asian growth, with positive for the Australian dollar. Technically, 0.7145 and 0.7165 are important resistance level references. A negative U.S. news could lift the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar, testing resistance at 0.7145 or 0.7165. The Australian dollar is likely to trade in a tight range against the U.S. dollar in the short term, waiting for the results of U.S. economic data and the FOMC minutes.

NZDUSD
0.6760/0.6775 resistance
0.6735/0.6720 support
The IMF said it expects global growth to slow, but that positive for Asian growth will remain positive for the New Zealand dollar. Technically, the reference resistance to the dollar was 0.6775. Reference support bit 0.6720. The New York dollar is likely to move in a tight range against the dollar in the near term as markets look to the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and minutes from the FOMC.

USDCAD
1.3350/1.3375 resistance
1.3305/1.3280 support
Today, API reported a crude oil inventory large increase, compared with the previous week, crude oil price trend lower, once fell below $64, bearish Canadian dollar. The IMF expected Canada's economic growth slow down, bearish CAD. Technically, the USDCAD maintained key support at 1.3280, with reference resistance at 1.3350 and 1.3375. The market looked at the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and minutes from the FOMC, which had a short-term impact on the Canadian dollar.

XAUUSD
1306/1308 resistance
1296/1294 support
The IMF expected a slowdown in global economic growth and a fall in the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average to push gold prices higher, having tested $1,306. The market is waiting for the results of the U.S. March CPl and core CPl and minutes from the FOMC meeting, which could limit gold price gains in the short term. If the U.S. CPI is strong, gold prices are expected to have an opportunity to fall, with an initial target of 1294 support. On the contrary, the reference resistance is 1306 and 1308.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
64.30/64.65 resistance
63.75/63.45 support
API reported a large increase in crude oil inventories and estimated that crude oil prices have the opportunity to move lower. If EIA crude oil inventories also rose substantially, will continue to bearish in crude oil prices. In addition, if the short-term energy outlook is negative and crude oil inventories increase significantly, the crude oil prices may be larger correction occur. In addition, the market is waiting for the U.S. March CPl and core CPl. On the sidelines, crude prices are likely to adjust their gains, with the opportunity to test an initial target of $63.75 or $63.45.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26235/26335 resistance
26015/25940 support
The IMF expected the US economy to the growth slowdown. In addition, the market waiting for the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and minutes from the FOMC as the investment climate turned cautious and the Dow Jones industrial average fell. Technical support, 26130 and 26055. If the U.S. CPl is weaker than expected in March, it could test support for 26015 and 25940. But at 2:00‬ the next day, the minutes of the FOMC must be kept in mind to see if it boosts the US Dow or not.

BTCUSD:
5050 / 5200 resistance
4750 / 4650 support
The IMF expected a slowdown in global economic growth, the bitcoin price keeps stronger. The market is waiting for the U.S. CPl and core CPl In March results and the FOMC minutes, the bitcoin price is expected below US5200.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China


Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
 
Personal opinions today
The U.S. PPI in March and U.S. jobless claims for the week ended April 6 over market expectations, pointing to a strengthening U.S. economy and labor market, rising inflation expectations, recovery in the Dow Jones industrial average and gold prices fell $20. But the dollar's strength is likely to slow on expectations that U.S. import prices for March and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, both released today, will be lower than previously thought. In addition, the temporary removal of the risk of a hard Brexit could boost European currencies, but gold prices were lower.

[Important data and events to watch]
10:00 China trade account in March
10:50 China's trade account in dollars in March
17:00 Eurozone industrial output in February
20:30 US import price index monthly rate in March
22:00 University of Michigan consumer confidence index for April


Today's suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1260/1.1245 support
1.1295/1.1315 resistance
Markets priced in a shock to the ECB's targeted long-term refinancing program (TLTRO), and Brexit risks eased. In addition, Germany's final monthly CPI in March was in line with expectations and helped the euro by avoiding economic and inflation risks. In the short term, the EURUSD trend can be focused on today's U.S. import price index for march and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary performance. Technically, the EURUSD reference to a rebound of 38.2 percent and 50 percent. 1.1285 and 1.1315, respectively. If the dollar remains strong, the key short-term support level is 1.1245.

GBPUSD
1.3050/1.3035 support
1.3115/1.3140 resistance
The extension of the Brexit deadline to October 31, reduced the risk of a fall in the pound. The dollar strengthened and the pound fell yesterday because the US economy and inflation data were better-than-expected, which is limited for the pound to fall. In the short term, the GBPUSD trend can be focused on today's U.S. import price index for March and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary performance. If the dollar remains strong, the technical reference for sterling is at 1.3035, with support and positive news expected to test 50 per cent and 61.8 per cent reference resistance at 1.3090 and 1.3115 respectively.

USDCHF
1.0045/1.0060 resistance
1.0005/0.9980 support
U.S. economic and inflation data beat forecasts, the dollar strengthened, the Swiss franc fell, and the dollar again hit resistance at 1.0030. In the short term, the dollar is likely to be influenced by the release of U.S. import prices for March and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index today. Technical resistance at 1.0045 and 1.0060 if the dollar remains strong. Otherwise, the reference support is 1.0005 and 0.9980.

USDJPY
111.55/111.40 support
112.00/112.15 resistance
U.S. economic and inflation data beat forecasts, and the Dow Jones and Nikkei rebounded. In addition, the risk of a hard Brexit in the UK has cooled and risk aversion has cooled, with money flowing into US dollar against yen. The dollar rose against the yen, breaking through resistance at 111.40 and 111.70 respectively. The U.S. import price index for March and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index was released today. If the U.S. economic data is strong and the Dow Jones industrial average rises, the USDJPY could test the upper level of reference resistance against the yen at 111.88, which is the highest level since March 15. Then maybe tests 112.00 and 112.15.

AUDUSD
0.7110/0.7095 support
0.7150/0.7165 resistance
U.S. economic and inflation data improved, while the dollar strengthened, and the Australian dollar fell. Technically, the AUD broke through the support of 0.7135 against the U.S. dollar, extending its losses and possibly testing support of 0.7110 and 0.7095. The Australian dollar is likely to fall further against the U.S. dollar if U.S. economic data is strong, according to a preliminary reading of U.S. import prices for March and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index released today.

NZDUSD
0.6740/0.6755 resistance
0.6715/0.6700 support
U.S. economic and inflation data improved, and the dollar strengthened, with the New York dollar hitting its lowest level in nearly a month at 0.6715. The U.S. import price index for March and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, both released today, are expected to show further support for the New Zealand dollar above 0.6715 if U.S. economic data is strong. The market is waiting for the U.S. data, the dollar’s pattern to be changed.

USDCAD
1.3400/1.3425 resistance
1.3350/1.3325 support
U.S. economic and inflation data were solid, and the dollar was strong. The Canadian dollar fell, cause the OPEC and other party intended to increase production, sending crude oil prices below $64. Technically, refer to 1.3400 and 1.3425 resistance levels, and support levels refer to 1.3350 and 1.3325 support. In the short term, USDCAD is mainly affected by crude oil price and USD trend as well, so it is recommended to keep an eye on it.

XAUUSD
1288/1285 support
1299/1302 resistance
Gold price fell from the high. Gold prices are likely to move lower as the U.S. CPl and PPI improved in March and the Brexit delayed. Us economic and inflation data beat expectations yesterday, accelerating capital outflows. The U.S. import price index for March and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index released today showed that gold prices will continue to downward if the U.S. economic data is strong, and the initial targets are 1288 and 1285. Instead, reference resistance 1299 and 1302.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
64.05/64.40 resistance
63.25/62.70 support
OPEC intends to increase production, crude oil prices below $64. Technically, the target price could fall to $63.75 or $63.45. If the current intentions of crude producers continue, crude oil prices have a chance to test the support level of 62.70 or below.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26085/26015 support
26242/26345 resistance
The Dow Jones industrial average rose on a day of better-than-expected U.S. economic and inflation data and a renewed positive investment sentiment. Dow at 26,242 and 26,345 resistance. If a trend has been fall, can refer to 26085 or 26015 support.

BTCUSD:
5050 / 5200 resistance
4750 / 4650 support
The IMF expected a slowdown in global economic growth, the bitcoin price keeps stronger. The market is waiting for the U.S. CPl and PPI In March results and the FOMC minutes, the bitcoin price is expected below US5200, it could be test 4750 or 4650 support.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China


Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
 
Personal opinions today
China's first-quarter GDP report will be announced on Wednesday this week, which is the global market focus and affected the markets. If the Chinese economy continues to suffer from a trade war between China and the United States, the slowdown in economic growth will affect the global investment outlook and sentiment. The market is waiting for the UK unemployment rate and jobless claims data for March on Tuesday and eurozone and UK CPI inflation data for March on Wednesday. The market expectations for better jobs and inflation data in Europe this week are expected to lead to a stronger euro ahead of the results. If the global economic situation and investment climate improve, the Sino-US trade talks that near the end, which is expected to boost the investment climate. Global stock markets and crude oil prices are expected to rise, but gold prices may face a downward trend.

[Important data and events to watch]
20:30 New York Fed manufacturing index for April
20:30 Fed Evans attended the event
01:00 the next day The Fed Evans speech


Today's suggestion:
EURUSD

1.1270/1.1250 support
1.1320/1.1340 resistance
On Friday, the euro had tested a one-week high of $1.1320, and technical moves were positive. Technically, if the euro stays above the support level of 1.1250, positive for euro Eurozone inflation forecasts rose this week, which is likely to help lift the single currency on the back of positive data expectations. If the UK job and inflation data are also positive, the euro could test resistance to $1.1386 or $1.1400. Conversely, the euro tested 1.1250 support against the dollar.

GBPUSD
1.3065/1.3050 support
1.3140/1.3165 resistance
The UK improved as the risk of a hard Brexit, positive for GBP. Technically, the GBPUSD reference support level rose from 1.2980 to 1.3065 and 1.3050, with upside resistance at 1.3140 and 1.3165. The market is waiting for the UK's employment and inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday. If the results are bad, negative for GBPUSD, may test below $1.3065.

USDCHF
1.0045/1.0060 resistance
1.0005/0.9980 support
U.S. economic and inflation data beat forecasts, the dollar strengthened and the Swiss franc fell, USDCHF hitting the resistance. Technically, the dollar against the Swiss franc to maintain reference resistance of 1.0045 and 1.0060. If the euro rises, the Swiss franc would benefit indirectly, with reference support expected to be 1.0005 and 0.9980 respectively.

USDJPY
111.80/111.65 support
112.15/112.30 resistance
The Dow and Nikkei rebounded on better-than-expected U.S. economic data and good news from Sino-US trade talks. In addition, the risk of a hard Brexit cooled, money flowed into the dollar to bet against the yen, and the dollar rose against the yen. The dollar could break further against the yen if U.S. economic data is keeping strong and Sino-US trade talks are finalized. Short-term technical resistance level refers to 112.30. Conversely, the reference support bit is 111.65 or 111.35.

AUDUSD
0.7150/0.7135 support
0.7190/0.7205 resistance
Good news from the Sino-US trade talks is expected to boost the Australian dollar. But before RBA’s minutes tomorrow morning, limited the trend of the AUDUSD. Technically, the AUDUSD held to support at 0.7135 and still had a chance to test resistance at 0.7190 or 0.7205.

NZDUSD
0.6780/0.6800 resistance
0.6745/0.6725 support
Good news from the Sino-US trade talks is expected to boost the New Zealand dollar. The dollar has held on to gains after rebounding from a near one-month low of 0.6715. The most important thing is to recover the situation behind the AUDUSD. The dollar could test 0.6800 resistance or 0.6825 if the Australian dollar is lifted by tomorrow's release of minutes, which is expected to benefit the NZDUSD indirectly. Short-term reference support levels are 0.6745 and 0.6725.

USDCAD
1.3400/1.3425 resistance
1.3305/1.3285 support
Crude oil prices fell, negative for the Canadian dollar. But trade talks between China and the United States have made progress again, changing the investment climate, with the dollar falling and the Canadian dollar rising. U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar by crude oil prices and sometimes the U.S. dollar trend against the Canadian dollar, it is recommended to keep an eye on. Technically, refer to 1.3400 and 1.3425 for resistance and 1.3305 and 1.3285 for support.

XAUUSD
1285/1281 support
1292/1296 resistance
Gold prices continued to fall from their highs on the good progress in trade talks between China and the United States, as well as the U.K. delayed the deadline for departure from the European Union, as safe-haven funds were already rushing out of the gold market. In addition, the U.S. economic data is still good, the global stock index rose, gold prices continue to downward. Technically, the gold price the first target support of 1285 and 1281. On the contrary, the basic factors reversed, gold prices rebounded, the reference resistance target of 1292 and 1296 respectively.

U.S. crude futures US30
63.85/64.05 resistance
63.25/62.80 support
Crude prices fell below $64 from last week on news that OPEC and other members of OPEC may change to increase production. Technically, crude oil prices could adjust to $63.2 or $62.80. OPEC and other members of OPEC now plan to increase production if they intend to make comments at the June meeting, crude oil prices have a chance to test the 62.80 support or below and the downward trend.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26495/26600 resistance
26085/26015 support
Sino-US trade talks successes, the market investment climate turns positive, the Dow rose and breaks through 26,345 resistance. Further, test 26495 high at the beginning of April. But China's first-quarter GDP report showed on Wednesday, which is expected to slow down, it has a chance to negative the stock market. The Dow’s trend may refer to 26085 or 26015 support.

BTCUSD:
5050 / 5200 resistance
4850 / 4725 support
The IMF expected a slowdown in global economic growth, the bitcoin price strengthened. The market is waiting for the China GDP in the first quarter. If at the end the figure is better than 6.3% expectations, the bitcoin price is expected below US5200, it could be tested US4725.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
 
Personal opinions today

Investors will be watching tomorrow the China first-quarter GDP report. The market estimates that China's economy continued to slow in the first quarter as a result of the trade war between the United States and China that began last year. Financial and property markets in the Spring Festival holiday has slowed. The production in the manufacturing and service sectors as well. Growth is expected to slow to 6.3 percent in the first quarter, China's A50 index fell yesterday. Today's UK job data, unemployment rate and jobless claims are closely watched by the market, which directly affects the expected UK CPI outlook and the trend of the pound. In addition, other essential data from the eurozone and Germany which is ZEW economic sentiment index for April can be used to look ahead to the euro zone's March CPl inflation data announced tomorrow. It is recommended to note that the U.S. industrial index and housing price index today, these are not essential data but good for predicting the U.S. retail sales data on Thursday, and there will be opportunities to influence the trend of the U.S. dollar and the trend of the the the global stock market. It even affects commodity markets, such as gold and crude oil prices.

[Important data and events to watch]
09:30 minutes of the RBA's monetary policy meeting for April
16:30 UK unemployment rate and jobless claims for March
17:00 German and eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index for April
21:15 The monthly rate of us industrial output in March
22:00 NAHB U.S. housing market index for April
Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude stocks for the week ending April 12

Today's suggestion :
EURUSD
1.1320/1.1340 resistance
1.1275/1.1255 support
Markets are watching today as the euro zone and Germany release ZEW economic sentiment index and tomorrow the euro zone releases its March CPl that inflation data. Technically, the euro still hasn't broken through the 1.1320 resistance, and the euro has a chance to adjust, with targets in support of 1.1275 and 1.1255. If the euro extends its gains against the dollar, it could test resistance at $1.1386 or $1.14.

GBPUSD
1.3065/1.3050 support
1.3125/1.3140 resistance
Investors are waiting for UK jobs data and inflation data to assess the retail sales figures announced on Thursday. Recommend keeping an eye on the UK unemployment rate and inflation data over the next two days as a critical result of Thursday's expected retail sales data. The GBP could test resistance to the dollar at $1.3200 if each figure beats forecasts. GBP, on the other hand, tested below $1.3065 or below.

AUDUSD
0.7135/0.7120 support
0.7170/0.7185 resistance
The Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) released minutes of its April monetary policy meeting on concerns that the statement If a change in the central bank's pessimistic view of the economy and show renewed confidence in the future. That could boost the Australian dollar Technically, the AUDUSD held to support at 0.7135 and still had a chance to test resistance at 0.7190 or 0.7205. The AUD could fall against the U.S. dollar if the RBA publishes a bearish stance on the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting, with the first reference below supporting 0.7135.

USDJPY
111.80/111.65 support
112.15/112.30 resistance
US economic data beat expectations, good news from Sino-US trade talks, strong Dow and Nikkei indexes, rising risk appetite, negative yen, USDJPY rising. The dollar is currently subject to short-term technical resistance at 112.15 and 112.30 yen. The dollar has a chance to test support at 111.65 or 111.35 against the yen in the event of adverse comments from the Fed speech or the U.S. President speech affected.

USDCAD
1.3400/1.3425 resistance
1.3345/1.3330 support
Crude oil prices continued their downward trend, having tested $63, which affected the Canadian dollar. Also, the Canadian dollar fell last night after a central bank survey showed business confidence was weakening and investment sentiment cooling. In the short term, the U.S. dollar fell against the Canadian dollar, weighed down by crude oil prices and confidence in the Canadian economy, and expectations that Canadian retail sales could underperform on Thursday. Technically, the USDCAD reference resistance is 1.3400 and 1.3425, while support is 1.3345 and 1.3330.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
63.85/64.05 resistance
63.25/62.80 support
Crude prices fell below $64 last week after news emerged that Opec and other oil-production countries had changed their stance on production cuts and planned to discuss increasing production at June meeting. Technically, the price of crude oil was adjusted to 63.2, with the lower support level reference at $62.80. If OPEC and other members continue to express their intention to increase production at the June meeting of the organisation of the OPEC, crude oil prices will have a chance to try the downward trend after 62.80.

XAUUSD
1285/1281 support
1292/1296 resistance
Gold prices continued to fall from their highs as safe-haven funds flowed out of the market on progress in trade talks between China and the United States and as the UK pushed back the date of its departure from the European Union. In addition, gold prices continued to move lower on expectations of a stronger U.S. economy and a rise in the Dow. Technically, the gold price trend at the first target 1285 and 1281 support. In contrast, if gold prices rebound, the reference resistance target of 1292 and 1296 respectively.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26495/26600 resistance
26085/26015 support
The good news from the Sino-US trade talks continued to push for the investment climate in the market, with the Dow rising. But expectations for a slowdown ahead of China's first-quarter GDP report on Wednesday hurt stocks and limited gains. If the Dow trend appears to downward, can refer to 26085 or 26015 support.

BTCUSD:
5050 / 5200 resistance
4850 / 4725 support
The IMF expected a slowdown in global economic growth, the bitcoin price strengthened. The market is waiting for the China GDP in the first quarter. If at the end the figure is better than 6.3% expectations, the bitcoin price is expected below US5200; it could be tested US4725.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
 
In today’s Front Row, we take a look at Emerging Market FX. Most currencies are up against the dollar at the time of writing, but not all currencies have the same prospects of adding to its gains. The Russian ruble is looking most promising, while the USDZAR is looking to be carving out a significant inverse head and shoulders pattern. USDTRY is outright bullish, and it seems like the Turkish lira will add to its losses in the days ahead, while USDMXN is trading sideways.


The Russian ruble is looking most interesting after taking a break to its uptrend in the last few weeks. The USDRUB attempted in March to breakout from a multi-month descending triangle but fell short, after reaching a low of 63.68 and traded back into the pattern. However, in the last few days the price is once again trying to trade lower, and ATFX’s Chief Market Strategist, Alejandro Zambrano, suspects that USDRUB might reach its 2019 low of 63.62 as long as the price trades below this week’s high of 65.67.


The Turkish Lira is also highlighted the video, as it looks to trade lower on technicals, but also as President Erdogan kept up pressure for a recount of local elections in Istanbul. The USDTRY left a relatively stable price range that latest from November 2018 to March 2019, and looks now to be heading to its rectangle pattern of 5.96. The price will need to trade below the April 2 low of 5.67 to turn neutral.


The Mexican Peso is trading sideways between 18.74 and 19.60, but the long-term prospects of a strong trend look good on a break to 18.74.


The South African rand is the short-term bullish, but if we take a longer-term view, it looks like the price is trying to carve out a significant inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Bio

Alejandro Zambrano is ATFX’s Global Chief Market Strategist, and he combines extensive professional experience and a pragmatic attitude to trading, building clients’ understanding of the markets and the rationale behind investing.


Before joining ATFX, Zambrano was the Chief Market Strategist of the FCA regulated broker, Amana Capital. Prior to that he was also the Head Analyst at FXCM’s London research desk. Zambrano has been using his invaluable experience to research the financial markets with a special focus on currencies and macroeconomics, throughout his career. He also covers commodity markets and equity indices. Working for various brokers, Zambrano also developed premium educational programs, and hundreds of people have attended his courses throughout the years.


Visit our site for more Forex Analysis.


Risk Disclaimer:

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs / Spread betting with ATFX.

You should consider whether you understand how CFDs / Spread betting work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

This market update was provided with an educational purpose, and is the personal opinion of Alejandro Zambrano, and not to viewed as trading advice by ATFX or Red Castle Ideas LTD.
 
Personal opinions today
Please note that markets in Europe, the US and Asia will be closed for Easter holiday on Friday and next Monday. This commentary closed tomorrow and next Monday.
The Fed beige book report showed moderate regional growth and continued expansion in consumer and investment confidence. A slight expansion in the economy is expected in the coming months, positive the dollar. But the market is widely expected the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged next time meeting and limit the dollar rose. If tonight, the U.S. retail sales in March below market expectations 0.9 percent, the dollar could weaken, with the greenback falling against major currencies and gold rising.
The eurozone CPI in March expansion, but UK CPI continues to slow under the market expectations. GBPUSD was lower, having tested support for $1.3020. During European trading hours today, markets were focused on the UK and eurozone retail sales data in march. Prior to the release of manufacturing PMI data in Germany and the eurozone respectively, it is worth to keep watching. During U.S. trading hours, the US reports the retail sales in March and Canada reported February retail sales. U.S. retail sales growth in March, which is expected to rise sharply from the previous month, is seen as a positive for the dollar. Ahead of the announcement, it could be bearish for Europe and commodity currencies.
[Important data and events to watch]
09:30 Australia's unemployment rate in March
14:00 German PPI and Swiss trade account in March
15:15 French manufacturing PMI in April
15:30 German manufacturing PMI in April
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI in April
16:30 UK retail sales rate in March
20:30 U.S. retail sales in March
20:30 U.S. jobless claims for the week ended April 13
20:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in April
20:30 Canadian retail sales in February
21:45 Markit manufacturing and services PMI in April
22:00 U.S. business inventories in February
Today's suggestion :
EURUSD
1.1305/1.1320 resistance
1.1275/1.1255 support
Eurozone CPl inflation data in march, in line with market expectations, rose 1 percent, supporting the euro against dollar. In European trading today, focus on German and eurozone PMI. In addition, retail sales in the eurozone are noteworthy. If retail sales data are weak and the market expects U.S. retail sales to grow, those factors could negative on the euro, which could be bearish. Technically, the EURUSD still subject to the resistance of 1.1320. It falls, the target refers to the support level of 1.1275 and 1.1255. Before the market is watching for the U.S. retail sales data, the euro may have downward.
GBPUSD
1.3020/1.3005 support
1.3065/1.3080 resistance
UK CPl data disappointed the market and came in below expectations. In addition, the GBP fell after the Fed beige book. The market is focused on UK retail sales data and the US retail sale data, where expectations for better economic growth in US, it possible to show bearish the GBP. Technically, the GBPUSD important resistance 1.3065 and 1.3080. Support 1.3020 and 1.3005.
AUDUSD
0.7150/0.7135 support
0.7185/0.7200 resistance
While China's first-quarter GDP was in line with expectations and had been bullish on the Australian dollar, it was hampered earlier by comments from the reserve bank of Australia on the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting and the RBA's decision to keep monetary policy loose. The dollar strengthened and AUdUSD fell after the Fed issued a beige book and comments. The U.S. will report retail sales in March today, the market is expected to grow, the dollar is strong, AUDUSD likely to fall further. Technically, the AUDUSD is expected to remain in support of 0.7135, but there is still a chance to test lower levels. Short term reference resistance 0.7185 and 0.7200.
USDJPY
112.15/112.30 resistance
111.80/111.50 support
The dollar firmed on expected U.S. retail sales data today. Global stock market generally uptrend and dollar strength, negative yen. Currently, the USDJPY refer to technical resistance 112.15 and 112.30. If U.S. retail sales do not perform well as expected, which is bearish for the dollar or U.S. Dow, the USDJPY have a chance to try support at 111.80 or 111.50.
USDCAD
1.3315/1.3295 support
1.3380/1.3400 resistance
Canada reported March CPI in line with market expectations, but crude oil prices fell back, ending the rise of the Canadian dollar, the Canadian dollar fell. The Canadian dollar is likely to positive today when Canada reports retail sales in march on expectations of growth. Technically, the USDCAD reference 1.3315 and 1.3295 support. Reference resistance 1.3315 and 1.3295.
U.S. crude futures USOIL
63.25/62.80 support
64.05/64.45 resistance
Futures contract expiry for this month, the USoil prices fell from high. In addition, Ocountries other members discussions about increasing production continued to trouble the market. Above all, the price of crude oil fell below $64. If U.S. retail sales increased in March on expectations, which could boost crude oil prices. Technically, crude oil price support remains at $63.25, with lower support at $62.80. Looking up at 64.05 and 64.45 resistance, the key reference resistance is $65.25.
XAUUSD
1270/1267 support
1282/1285 resistance
The Fed beige book release economy moderate economic growth, is expected in the next few months, the economy, bearish gold prices. In addition, today's expected surge in U.S. retail sales is bearish for gold prices. But gold prices have already fallen sharply, possibly reflecting those factors, and further declines are likely to be limited. Technically, gold prices fell 1281 support, the next try to the wave 1270 or 1267 support. If gold prices rebound, refer to the first resistance target of 1282 or 1285.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26500/26625 resistance
26315/26125 support
The federal reserve's beige book limited the Dow . The narrowing of the U.S. trade account deficit, coupled with the pre-easter holiday, hurt the Dow's performance and limited its gains. Expectations of a sharly increase in U.S. retail sales, as expected, lifted the Dow ahead of the holiday. Technically, refer to 26315 or 26125 support and 26500 and 26625 resistance.
BTCUSD:
5050 / 5200 resistance
4750 / 4650 support
The market is waiting for the Fed beige book release tomorrow, the bitcoin price keeps stronger. Technically the bitcoin price is expected below US5200, it could be test 4750 or 4650 support.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
 
Last week's trading was fairly calm, especially concerning US data. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for April fell to a record low of 96.9 points, down by 1.5 points from the previous reading of 98.4. The US dollar remained relatively in narrow ranges for most of the week. And on a related note, we saw a fresh affirmation from the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, regarding the central bank's independence – following President Trump's comments last week that the Fed should cut rates – keeping the dollar relatively cohesive. The stability of oil prices at their recent highs, the lack of change in risk appetite, and the stability of expectations for US interest rates have had a clear effect on the gains we have seen in USD/JPY, which increases the likelihood of retesting the 113.00-113.15 resistance level soon if the pair succeeds in stabilizing above the 112.12 level.

Euro: Weak EU economic data persists
In Europe, the focus last Friday was on Eurozone industrial production data for February. While January's industrial production was stronger than expected, this positive start of the year was unlikely to continue in February. Indeed, on Friday we saw a weaker reading of the Industrial Production Index at -0.2%. However, this reading remains better than the average market expectations of a worse -0.5%. Therefore, we saw some gains in EUR/USD, which closed around the 1.1300 levels. However, the growth of weak industrial production in the euro area remains an additional and logical excuse for the ECB's cautious stance, which leads us to conclude that any prospects for tightening or even the normalization of European monetary policy in the short-term remain very low.

GBP: Lonely in the face of uncertainty
The main concern now for GBP traders is to speculate on how the potential battle for the conservative party’s leadership could go, reinforcing market fears that a more anti-EU prime minister in this regard could emerge than the current Prime Minister Theresa May, who is clearly losing control with repeated failures to win the support of members of parliament on an earlier agreed upon Brexit plan. We should also note the continued decline in GBPUSD short positions according to the COT report of the CFTC, which since the beginning of this year has led to a further reversal. Moreover, the recent agreement to extend Article 50 for six months could prove to be insufficient time as the growing threat of uncertainty could be translated into a price drop in GBP/USD, possibly visiting the 1.2800 levels.

Highlights of the week:
From the USA,
next week we will be looking at its trade balance, which is likely to show an expected increase in its current deficit of $51.1 billion recorded in January. In housing, markets expect an improvement in Housing Starts for March as well as for Building Permits after sharp declines in the previous month. Also, retail sales are expected to rise in five months in March after falling unexpectedly in February, while the average forecast is in favor of industrial output growth – its first growth since last November’s reading. The figures for purchasing managers, business and wholesale stocks, capital flows, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the Empire State Industrial Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index will also be noted.

From the UK, which is expected to publish data on inflation, unemployment, wage growth and retail data. Expectations are for a sharp rise in consumer prices (the most in three months), the unemployment rate likely to remain close to its lowest level since 1975, and that retail growth will decline.

From the Eurozone, specifically from Germany and France, Markit's PMI figures will be in the spotlight. The eurozone's manufacturing sector is expected to fall for the third month in a row, while growth in service activity is likely to remain weak. Other key economic data includes the eurozone’s trade balance, its current account, and the output of its construction sector, as well as the survey of investor sentiment and inflation figures from producers.

From Japan, traders are looking forward to seeing the latest release of Japanese CPI figures for March, trade balance figures, the Nikkei PMI, as well as the final reading for Japanese industrial production.

To China, where investors will focus on GDP growth for the first quarter as market expectations indicate that it’ll expand at its weakest pace since 2009 amid a continuing trade war with the United States. The country will also provide updated figures for industrial production, retail sales, house price index and fixed asset investment.

atfx.com/gm/ar/

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines
 
Personal opinions today

Global investment markets are trading regularly after the Easter holiday. But there was no economic data out of Europe today, and the principal U.S. figure was only the total number of new home sales in March. Crude trading focuses on U.S. API crude inventories.
Other important highlights of the week; Including tomorrow morning Australian consumer confidence index and CPl, the bank of Canada interest rate decision. On Thursday, the bank of Japan decided on interest rates, U.S. jobless claims and durable goods orders. Friday's preliminary reading of U.S. first-quarter real GDP, real personal consumption expenditures and the first-quarter core PCE price index. Friday's U.S. data is expected to bring market attention, currency, gold and stock market volatility, and influence the outlook for new U.S. non-farm jobs next week. Please stay tuned.

[Important data and events to watch]
20:30 Canadian wholesale sales in February
21:00 US FHFA housing price index in February
22:00 The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for April
22:00 US new home sales in March
the next day 04:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks

Today's suggestion:
EURUSD

1.1270/1.1290 resistance
1.1235/1.1220 support
The euro seems stronger after the holidays. EURUSD consolidating at $1.1235 and $1.220 but still subject to resistance at $1.1320. If EURUSD upward and break through the reference resistance level of 1.1270 and 1.1290, it is expected to further test 1.1320. The market is waiting for the eurozone IFO business climate index for April, and U.S. data released this week, such US GDP in the first quarter which affected the euro is downward.

GBPUSD
1.3005/1.3025 resistance
1.2965/1.2940 support
The market can not find any stand out good data in UK. Instead, US data showed growth, money flowed into the dollar and the GBP came downward. Technically, the GBP has been on a downward trend, with the important reference resistance and support levels moving down to 1.3005 and 1.3025 and 1.2965 and 1.2940 support respectively. If the GBP does not rebound above 1.3035 resistance, the expected trend will remain on the downside, depending on Friday's U.S. first-quarter GDP report.

AUDUSD
0.7115/0.7095 support
0.7145/0.7160 resistance
Australian consumer confidence index and CPl will announce tomorrow. However, the Australian dollar downward on the strength of the U.S. dollar ahead of the release of a stronger U.S. data, which is expected to report a stronger U.S. GDP on this Friday. Technically, the AUDUSD is expected to hold support at 0.7095 with reference resistance at 0.7145 or 0.7160.

USDJPY
112.00/112.15 resistance
111.65/111.50 support
The Dow Jones industrial average fell after the holiday break as investors watched major companies report first-quarter results. The United States and Japan also follow the trend downward. The technical resistance level moved down to 112.00 and 112.15, and the reference support level for the daily trial was 111.80. Next is 111.50 support. Expectations remain on a downward trend, with the U.S. first-quarter GDP report on Friday.

USDCAD
1.3315/1.3295 support
1.3380/1.3400 resistance
U.S. crude oil futures rose and were indirectly bullish on the Canadian dollar, but the currency failed to gain on expectations for U.S. first-quarter GDP, a strong U.S. dollar. On Thursday, bank of Canada interest rate decision. Technically, the USDCAD reference support are 1.3315 and 1.3295. Reference resistance 1.3375 and 1.3395.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
64.45/64.05 support
66.05/66.45 resistance
The United States has pressured countries to impose sanctions on Iran to limit its oil exports and stop buying Iranian crude, which would reduce supplies and boost prices. Technically, crude oil broke through a key reference resistance that had been expected at $65.25, up from $66. Note tomorrow morning, U.S. crude inventories report, if the decline in crude inventories is larger than last week, there is an opportunity to boost crude prices.

XAUUSD
1270/1267 support
1282/1285 resistance
Last week the federal reserve released March beige book, the report showed moderate growth in the U.S. economy, is expected in the next few months, the economy, negative for gold prices. In addition, the report reflects the possibility of U.S. GDP growth, which is negative for gold prices as well. Technically, gold is down $1,270 or $1,267 in correction wave support. If gold prices rebound, refer to the initial resistance target of 1282 or 1285.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26500/26625 resistance
26315/26125 support
The Easter holiday, the impact of the investment climate, the Dow performance limit. In addition, the market is looking for the corporate earnings in Dow indexes, expected to wait and see corporate earnings reports before action. Technically, refer to 26315 or 26125 support, 26500 and 26625 resistance.

BTCUSD:
5050 / 5200 resistance
4750 / 4650 support
The market is waiting for the US GDP data release on Friday, the bitcoin price keeps a bit lower to waiting for the data results. Technically the bitcoin price is expected below US5200; it could be test 4750 or 4650 support.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
 
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