ATFX Market Updates 2019

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX Announces the Rise of the Japanese Yen in its Third Quarter Report

London – July 18, 2019 – ATFX, the global award-winning online forex broker has released an insightful quarterly report, providing traders with the latest market trends in 2019.

The 27-page market outlook report incorporates unique data on forex outlooks, the stock markets, metals, energy, and the hot topic of cryptocurrencies. There is so much packed into the report to really enhance the trading experience including regional information as well as regulatory information.

The last issue summarised information from the second quarter especially market trends and their implications on the multi-asset trading industry. However, ATFX has now included new and unique benchmarks to provide exclusive information on key financial instruments.

The third quarter report looks at how the Japanese Yen might emerge as the 2019 winner amidst market turmoil, which is set to continue. The analysts at ATFX also provide a detailed insight into shares, commodities, indices, as well as cryptocurrencies.

Alejandro Zambrano, Global Chief Market Strategist of ATFX UK, Ramy Abouzaid Head of Market Research of ATFX UAE, Martin Lam Chief Analyst of ATFX Asia Pacific, Dean Chen Senior Market Analyst of ATFX China, and Justin Lee Analyst of ATFX Taiwan, explore a range of fascinating financial strategies in the report. The Q3 report is also available to traders in a range of languages, making it accessible for our clients globally.

The report aims to help traders develop an effective trading strategy over the coming quarter. Please visit Investing Cube’s Quarterly Market Outlook page to download your free copy of the outlook today.

ATFX would also like to remind traders that Global Chief Market Strategist Alejandro Zambrano provides daily updates on the markets, this is available here .

END
Website: atfx.com
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ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA);
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC);
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[Kelly Yeung]

GBPUSD Slides as Traders Wait for Next Tory Leader to Be Revealed

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

Markets watched the PMI for the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors, which were expected to show a slight increase from the previous month, and expected new home sales rise. If the results are better than expected, the outlook for the durable goods orders and the U.S. second-quarter GDP is stronger. The Fed could delay its rate cut in this end of the month, boosting the dollar. Currently, interest rate futures in the financial market are pricing in a chance of a quarter-point cut at the end of the month at about 78%. Dollar investors generally accept moderate rate cuts, the dollar was supported.

U.K. new prime minister, Johnson finally success took over as prime minister. The new prime minister said that he would officially leave the European Union by the end of October, and the market speculated that it would only be Brexit without an agreement at that time. The British economy would be in trouble. The European central bank (ECB) announced the results of its interest rate meeting on Thursday, and the market estimated that the ECB will resume monetary easing policy in the future, which will be bearish for the euro. The weakness of European currencies has indirectly boosted the dollar. The dollar's rise against other currencies also hit the gold. The lower global economic outlook failed to produce a big rebound in oil prices even as crude stocks unexpectedly fell sharply. Crude oil futures were held back by $57.4 after APl crude oil inventory data was released.

[Important financial data and events]

15:15 French manufacturing PMI for July
15:30 German manufacturing PMI for July
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI for July
21:45 U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI for July
21:45 U.S. Markit service sector PMI for July
22:00 U.S. new homes sale in June
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories change
To be confirm U.K. new prime minister speech

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1175/1.1190 resistance
1.1125/1.1105 support
U.S. economic and inflation data were higher than market expectations, with the market pricing in a rate cut of less than 50 basis points, the dollar gains. In addition, the European central bank will announce the monetary policy on Thursday. The market widely believe that the ECB start QE policy again, bearish euro. In addition, the new British prime minister speech, increase the risk of hard Brexit, damage to European economic growth and development, sterling indirectly affected the decline of the euro. At present the euro performance is weak, believes that the short term continues to indirectly affect the Swiss franc trend. Technical institute, after the euro broke through 1.1155, down 1.1125 or 1.1105 support. Or wait for the European central bank to raise interest rates after the euro began to stabilize. Until then, watch the strength of U.S. economic data in this week, indirectly affecting the euro.

GBPUSD
1.2465/1.2505 resistance
1.2420/1.2380 support
The pound is likely to come bearish after Britain announced its new prime minister, Johnson, who supports a hard Brexit. The pound has an opportunity to test the 1.2380 support. The new prime minister will make a formal speech during the European or US trading hours today. The pound could dip to 1.2380 or lower if the new prime minister stresses a no-deal Brexit with the EU after the deadline. If any good statement shown, it’s may looking at 1.2505 resistance.

AUDUSD
0.6995/0.7015 resistance
0.6955/0.6935 support
The dollar rose ahead of U.S. economic data this week. Trade talks between the US and China failed to make progress, risks of a global slowdown increased and industrial metals prices fell, bearish on the Australian dollar. If there is still no progress in the US-China trade talks, the US President will continue his negative comments and technically advise to watch for the downward trend in AUDUSD. Expect the same impact on the trend of the NZ dollar.

USDJPY
108.45/108.60 resistance
107.85/107.55 support
The dollar held on to gains as market estimates narrowed the fed's rate cut at the end of the month. Markets are pricing in future rate cuts by the ECB and the Bank of England, and money is flowing to the dollar. US corporate earnings were strong, the Dow rose, Nikkei index rose and the dollar rose against the yen. Technically, it's worth keeping an eye on the Dow and Nikkei. If the index continues to rise, it will lead the dollar to rise against the yen. It is recommended to pay attention to whether 108.45 and 108.60 resistance can break through.

USDCAD
1.3105/1.3075 support
1.3175/1.3205 resistance
A number of major Canadian economic data have disappointed the market recently, and the outlook for economic growth has slowed, which is bearish for the Canadian dollar. In addition, crude oil futures prices extended the weak trend. Canada has no data this week, and estimates are passive by US data performance. If crude oil prices rise, there are opportunities to boost the Canadian dollar. Weak U.S. economic data could add to the Canadian dollar gain. Refers to the technical, the current estimate on the test wave adjustment 38.2%, the first target 1.3175. Note today's U.S. economic data performance, indirect impact on the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
57.40/58.25 resistance
55.60/54.90 support
The lack of progress in US-China trade talks, coupled with often negative criticism from U.S. presidents, is still weighing on oil demand expectations. Crude oil prices are expected to consolidate above $54 if tensions between the US and Iran fail to ease or if supplies fail to be replenished in time. Early next week, the US trade secretary will visit China, and the progress of trade talks will be of great significance to the global economic recovery. If the talks with deal and formally resumed, the price of crude oil is expected to rise. Current technical trend, U.S. crude oil futures 54.90 support above, the trend is expected to test 57.40 or 58.25 resistance.

XAUUSD
1426/1430 resistance
1415/1411 support
With the Fed now expected to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points at the end of July, COMEX gold contracts tumbled. Interest-rate futures are pricing in a roughly 78% chance of a quarter-point cut by the fed at the end of the month. The price of gold had fallen to around $1,414. If this week's U.S. economic data is strong and the dollar rises further, gold prices may have more room to adjust. The current recommendation focuses on significant support at $1411 and resistance at $1430.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27420/27610 resistance
27220/27110 support
US consumer confidence growths, inflation data rose, US corporate earnings beat expectations, bullish Dow. These two weeks, continue to have important corporate earnings release, the stock market would be volatility. Fortunately, the Fed may cut rate next week, which should be consistent with strong corporate earnings and bullish Dow. A stagnant U.S. - China relationship and uncertainty in US-Iran tensions could dampen sentiment and limit Dow gains. US trade secretary could visit China early next week if the trade talks make a good progress. Investment sentiment good and boost global stocks. Now, Dow keep an eye on resistance 27420 and 27610.

BTCUSD:
10050 / 10150 resistance
9350 / 9000 support
Recently here mentioning, US economy growth over expected. The Fed maybe only cut 25 basic point in this end of month, recover US dollar loss. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Crypto currencies demand declined. If its noise continued, the Fed will cut only 25 basic point as expected in this end of month. US data shown stronger in this week. Yesterday, here assuming the bitcoin probably test US9500. Now, investors should keep watching the US data in this week to compare the market sentiment.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

GBPUSD: Boris Johnson Wins Race to Become Next Tory Leader

GBPUSD traded marginally higher on the news that Boris Johnson will be the next Tory leader and UK PM. The muted reaction in GBPUSD shows that the market had already discounted Mr. Johnson’s victory.

As for the technical outlook for GBPUSD, it remains bearish as the price has been trading lower since March when it reached 1.3379, and the last important swing high is the July 15 high of 1.2582. Below the July 15 high, the GBPUSD is at risk of trading to the April 2017 low of 1.2364, followed by the March 2017 low of 1.2106. The outlook is bearish as it is likely that there will be some hard negotiations between Westminster and Brussels, and Boris Johnson has not ruled out a hard Brexit.

For the trend to turn bullish the price would need to take out the July 15 high, and on that happening the price might target the June high of 1.2780.

Johnson recived 92,53 votes vs. Hunt’s 46,456. He is expected to become the UK’s next prime minister after Theresa May resignes to the Queen tomorrow.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

Written By Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision tonight, and followed by a press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi. The ECB has been widely expected to announce a new round of quantitative easing (QE), if announced immediately when the interest rate decision, it is believed that the euro will fall. If the European central bank press conference to announce that there is an opportunity to delay the implementation of the policy, the euro has an opportunity to rise, so the implementation time is the focus, the longer the implementation time, bullish euro differences level.

The ECB news conference was accompanied by U.S. jobless claims and durable goods orders. Data show that the dollar values, affects the dollar against other currencies and gold price. Durable goods orders, in particular, could influence U.S. second-quarter GDP tomorrow and the Fed’s interest rate cut decision next week. Please take note.

[Important financial data and events]

11:05 RBA chairman Stephen lowy speaks
16:00, Germany IFO business climate index for July
18:00 The CBI retail sales for July
19:45 ECB monetary policy decision
20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims
20:30 U.S. durable goods orders for June
20:30 ECB President Mario draghi holds a press conference
23:00 U.S. Kansas city fed's manufacturing output index

Today suggestion :

EURUSD
1.1175/1.1190 resistance
1.1105/1.1075 support
Today, the ECB announced the monetary decision, the market widely believe that the ECB may start QE policy again, bearish euro. If the meeting to expand monetary policy, the negative and bearish the euro. But delaying implementation could boost the euro. The ECB monetary policy will indirectly affect the Swiss franc trend. For Euro if break 1.1155 resistance its would rise in confidence in the euro. Probably test resistance to 1.1175 or 1.1190. On the contrary, the euro fall and break 1.1105 supports, which represents the sentiment for euro downtrend. Today, the U.S. data is also indirectly affecting the performance of the euro, please noted.

GBPUSD
1.2505/1.2520 resistance
1.2450/1.2425 support
Britain's new prime minister has vowed not to extend the deadline for leaving the European Union by the end of October. However, most situations that a hard Brexit is most likely to cause damage to both sides. While the pound is still under pressure, there are opportunities for it to fall and test 1.2380 support. But for now, the market is watching U.S. durable goods orders today and second-quarter GDP data tomorrow, limited pound losses. Technically, the pound is likely to test resistance at 1.2505 or 1.2520. Important support bit below 1.2425.

AUDUSD
0.6995/0.7015 resistance
0.6970/0.6955 support
The market is watching for U.S. job losses and durable goods orders today, and forecast for the second-quarter U.S. GDP tomorrow. Prior to the release of the data, the Australian dollar was expected to moderate its losses against the U.S. dollar, consolidating in a support of 0.6970 or 0.6955. In addition, the trade consultations in Shanghai next week, believe the news bullish Australian dollars. If the trade talks can make new progress and deal, the US President does not make negative comments, bullish AUDUSD. Also, the indirect impact of the New Zealand dollar in same way.

USDJPY
108.45/108.60 resistance
107.85/107.55 support
US corporate earnings over market expected and the federal reserve will cut interest at the end of the month. Expectations for U.S. durable goods orders today and second-quarter GDP growth tomorrow were better than expected, bullish the Dow. The Nikkei keeps rising, which is expected to lead the us dollar to rise against the yen. Technically, if the Dow and Nikkei continue to rise, it could bullish the USDJPY to 108.45 and 108.60 resistance. If it finally break through the resistance, it may need to good result in China-US trade negotiations.

USDCAD
1.3125/1.3105 support
1.3175/1.3205 resistance
No Canadian data were released during the week, and estimates were influenced indirectly by the dollar and crude oil prices. Weak U.S. economic data could add to the Canadian dollar gain. Otherwise, expect the Canadian dollar to fall. The current technical analysis estimates that the adjustment wave head is 1.3175 or 1.3205. Note today's U.S. economic data performance and crude oil prices, indirect impact on the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
56.40/57.15 resistance
55.40/54.90 support
The China-US trade consultation will be held in Shanghai, China next week. Oil demand is still suffering from a weak economy and bad news. Technically, crude oil prices are expected to consolidate above $54. Early next week, the us trade secretary will visit China and the trade talks will make progress. An eventual interest rate cut by the federal reserve could boost expectations of a global economic recovery and lead to higher oil prices. If the ECB executed the QE tonight, it could boost oil prices. In technical terms, U.S. crude is expected to remain above support at 54.90 and is expected to test resistance at 57.15.

XAUUSD
1426/1430 resistance
1415/1411 support
The fed is currently expected to cut rates by only 25 basis points by the end of July, with chance about 78 percent. The fed's rate cut is expected to be modest, and gold prices have limited room to rise. Unless there is negative sentiment in the markets or the ECB's policy stimulus on a large expansion of QE, that will boost gold prices. Otherwise, gold prices are expected to have limited upside. U.S. economic data this week will also be key, with gold prices likely to widen their correction if the dollar rises further. The current recommendation focuses on significant support at $1411 and resistance at $1430.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27420/27610 resistance
27220/27110 support
U.S. corporate earnings beat expectations, bullish Dow. The next two weeks, continue to corporate earnings release, pay attention to the stock market fluctuations. The federal reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week, with strong corporate earnings, could be bullish Dow. Sino-U.S. relations improved, both officials consultations next week. Progress in trade talks early next week, when the U.S. trade secretary visits China, could improve the investment sentiment and bullish stocks. For now, keep an eye on technical support levels 27220 and 27110, with reference to resistance levels 27420 and 27610.

BTCUSD:
10150 / 10550 resistance
9650 / 9300 support
Recently here mentioning, US economy growth over expected. The Fed maybe only cut 25 basic point in this end of month, recover US dollar loss. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Crypto currencies demand declined. US data would shown stronger. Now suggestion, investors should keep watching the US data in this week to compare the market sentiment. The gold price and trends also affected the bitcoin price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

The ECB has announced kept the interest rates and all monetary policies unchanged. ECB no monetary easing and dovish talk, the euro rose. Unfortunately, the euro was indirectly affected by the negative news that Britain may face a hard Brexit. EURUSD met resistance at 1.1186 and reversed. In gold market, no dovish talk from the European central bank then the gold prices fell.

Markets are watching the US second-quarter real GDP, and this data will be important for FOMC meeting next week. If the first estimate of US real GDP fell and the result was less than 1.7%, the fed would have to consider cutting rates by 50 basis points, 25 basis points above market expectations. So calculate, interest rate futures market would volatility and affected the dollar. If the dollar dropped, boost to gold would also lift other major currencies against the dollar. Watch tonight the US real GDP and extend the dollar trends early next week.

[Important financial data and events]

14:00 German import price index for June
14:45 French producer price index for June
16:00 Italian consumer and manufacturing confidence in July
18:30 Russian central bank interest rate decision
20:30 U.S. real GDP in the second quarter
20:30 U.S. core PCE price index
20:30 U.S. real personal consumption expenditure

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1175/1.1210 resistance
1.1120/1.1095 support
Yesterday this analysis pointed out that the market has been prepared for the ECB monetary policy easing, and the ECB did not start the monetary policy of QE. After the meeting, the euro had tested a resistance range of 1.1175 to 1.1190. Today's figures from Germany, France and Italy could be indicators of growth in the euro zone. In addition, the Russian central bank interest rate decision, believed to have an indirect impact on the euro. If Russia's central bank cuts interest rates by just 25 basis points, it could rally the euro. In the evening, the US real GDP for the second quarter showed a bigger drop than the market expected by 1.8 percent. The dollar could fall. On the contrary, GDP is higher than market expectations, which is bearish for the euro.

GBPUSD
1.2485/1.2505 resistance
1.2420/1.2385 support
Now British MPS say there is some doubt that the UK can reach an agreement with the EU before the deadline, and that it is most likely that it will not sign a break agreement with the EU. The pound will under pressure if the UK attempts to reverse the previous agreement, with the pound having an opportunity to dip to support 1.2380 or below. The U.S. second-quarter real GDP also affected the pound. Technically, the pound is likely to test resistance at 1.2505. But the U.S. real GDP in the second quarter was still strong, and pound could dip to 1.2385 support.

AUDUSD
0.6975/0.6995 resistance
0.6935/0.6915 support
The Australian dollar lost 0.6955 to support as the market waited to see the U.S. GDP data for the second quarter. Today's GDP results are awaited. In addition, the US-China trade talks will be held in Shanghai next week. If progress well, the US President does not make any negative comments, it is expected that AUDUSD up. Also expect that indirectly impact of the New Zealand dollar.

USDJPY
108.75/108.90 resistance
107.85/107.55 support
The Nikkei index rose, leading the USDJPY follow the trends. The market is waiting for the US second quarter real GDP to beat expectations. If the Dow is positive, the Nikkei is likely to keep rising. Technically, the Nikkei index continued to rise, leading the USDJPY to break through the resistance of 108.60 yen. The China-US trade talks next week, the stock market will rise and the USDJPY will test 109 levels.

USDCAD
1.3125/1.3105 support
1.3175/1.3205 resistance
No Canadian data were released during the week, and estimates were influenced indirectly by the dollar and crude oil prices. Weak U.S. economic data could add to the Canadian dollar gain. Otherwise, expect the Canadian dollar to fall. The current technical analysis estimates that the adjustment wave head is 1.3175 or 1.3205. Note today's U.S. second-quarter real GDP results and crude oil price reaction, indirect impact on the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
56.40/57.15 resistance
55.35/54.85 support
Crude oil futures fell as markets were disappointed by the European central bank no start quantitative easing. Next week's US-China trade talks in Shanghai, China, are expected to a good news. Technically, crude oil prices are expected to consolidate above $54. The U.S. trade secretary's official visit to China early next week is expected to lead to progress and boost crude oil prices. Today we watching the second-quarter U.S. GDP. If it’s rise 1.9 percent above the top end of market forecasts could boost oil futures. In technical terms, U.S. crude oil futures are expected to remain above support at 54.85 and are expected to test resistance again at 57.15.

XAUUSD
1426/1430 resistance
1415/1411 support
The ECB no monetary policy easing has failed to lift gold prices. Today, the market focus on the U.S. GDP for the second quarter is key to market sentiment . Gold prices could rebound if the U.S. GDP falls 1.8 % or below the expectations, undermining the dollar and giving the fed more room to cut interest rates. Otherwise, gold prices are expected to have limited upside and have the opportunity to break through the 1411 support level. The current recommendation focuses on significant support at $1411 and resistance at $1430.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27345/27420 resistance
27090/27010 support
The Dow was bullish despite U.S. corporate earnings beating expectations. However, the Dow was weak because the market estimate of U.S. GDP fell to 1.8 percent in the second quarter. A better-than-expected reading on second-quarter U.S. GDP, it could revive the investment climate and boost stocks. Next week, U.S. and China trade talks, probably improved investment sentiment. Currently, keep an eye on technical support 27090 and 27010, and resistance levels for reference 27345 and 27420.

BTCUSD:
10150 / 10750 resistance
9650 / 9200 support
US economy growth over expected. But today, the market focus on the US real GDP result. If the number below 1.8% expected, The Fed maybe not only cut 25 basic point in this end of month then US dollar would loss. It is suppose bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin. Now suggestion, investors should keep watching the US data in this week to compare the market sentiment. The gold price volatility also affected the bitcoin price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

The European central bank has announced its decision on interest rates. The central bank has left interest rates unchanged without any easing measures. The euro has stabilized. However, the UK may face hard Brexit at the end of October, and it is difficult to rise in the euro target. It may believe that the downside risks of pound and the euro. In addition, the higher the downside risk to European currencies, the dollar index rose. It could fall against other major currencies against the dollar.

Last week, the US real GDP for the second quarter beat market expectations, but still fell sharply from the previous quarter. The market generally believes that the federal reserve will meet on Thursday, the market is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Because of past market sentiment that fed rate cuts and money flowing into the gold market generally boost gold prices, Europe faces increased risks of a hard Brexit . Money flows into safe-haven assets, believe the JPY and gold prices remain stronger.

Watch for key economic data from major currency countries this week, such as Japan unemployment rate and the bank of Japan interest rate decision tomorrow. Eurozone economic sentiment index, consumer confidence index, German CPI, US core price index and consumer confidence index. That was followed by other important economic data on Wednesday that affected currency volatility. Since then, it maybe various major markets and currencies have varying degrees of volatility, which is more likely to affect the US ADP payroll and officials non-farm payrolls data released within the week, the trend of the U.S. dollar, please note.

[Important financial data and events]

15:00 Spain CPI for July
16:00 Italy PPI for June
16:30 U.K. BOE mortgage lending permit for June
22:30 US Dallas fed business activity index for July
The next day Japan unemployment rate and the bank of Japan's interest rate decision

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1165/1.1180 resistance
1.1120/1.1105 support
The European central bank stopped short of starting a broad monetary policy, but the euro's gains were held back by dovish comments from the central bank's governor. Ahead of U.S. jobs and interest rate decisions this week, the euro zone's economic and inflation data and jobs data are better than expected. Technically, the euro still has an opportunity to test the 1.1165 to 1.1180 resistance range. Support bits can be referred to 1.1120 and 1.1105. If the euro zone economy and inflation weaken more than market expectations, or the euro could test a pre-1.1095 low or below. It is worth noting that the Swiss franc is often affected by the trend of the euro. When investing in the euro, watch the Swiss franc move in step with the euro.

GBPUSD
1.2415/1.2440 resistance
1.2335/1.2310 support
The British prime minister has said in numerous speeches that a deal will be reached by the end of October, the deadline for leaving the European Union. However, the market generally believes that there is still no consensus on the disputes and differences between the two sides, and it is estimated that a hard brexit is likely in the end. If Britain were to force a reversal of its previous agreement with the EU, the pound would come under pressure. Last week, this analysis pointed to an opportunity for the pound to dip below support of 1.2380. Currently bearish for pound, has broken through the support level. If the Brexit news does not improve, pound is heading for $1.22 level. Currently refer to technical, 1.2415 and 1.2440 resistance, support levels 1.2335 and 1.2310.

AUDUSD
0.6885/0.6870 support
0.6935/0.6955 resistance
The preliminary GDP value of the second quarter of the United States, better than the market expectations, the U.S. dollar rose, the Australian dollar fell, lost 0.6955 support, and then tested 0.6900. A break above 0.6900 will take us to the next reference support level of 0.6870. Markets are looking ahead to trade talks. If positive news continues on Wednesday, it could boost the Australian dollar and indirectly boost the New Zealand dollar.

USDJPY
108.60/108.80 resistance
108.25/108.05 support
Japan Nikkei index fell as Asian markets opened, while the dollar followed suit against the yen. In addition, the market focus on Japan unemployment rate and the bank of Japan's interest rate decision tomorrow, the market adjusted to short yen. In addition, China - Us trade talks, the outlook is not clear, investors to rectify the position, and then make arrangements. Technically, it is recommended to focus on 108.05 support. Recommend focus on the central bank has the policy
, then makes a new trend.

USDCAD
1.3175/1.3205 resistance
1.3125/1.3105 support
There were no Canada data at the start of the week, and the market was waiting for a comparison of U.S. and Canada employment data. It is estimated that the trend of the Canadian dollar may be indirectly affected by the trend of the U.S. dollar and the price of crude oil. Current technical analysis estimates that the USDCAD adjustment wave is testing 1.3175 or 1.3205. If crude oil prices rise, the USDCAD could test support of 1.3125 or 1.3105.

US crude oil futures
56.40/57.15 resistance
55.35/54.85 support
Markets were disappointed that the ECB did not start its quantitative easing. U.S. GDP was widely expected to fall less than expected in the second quarter, while the federal reserve's cut in interest rates to 25 basis points failed to stimulate demand for oil and crude futures prices failed to lift. The U.S. - China trade talks are expected to change negative sentiment and boost crude oil prices. Technically, crude oil prices are expected to consolidate, with U.S. crude futures holding above support at 54.85 and looking to test resistance again at 57.15.

XAUUSD
1427/1430 resistance
1414/1411 support
Global central Banks are maintaining quantitative, understanding the federal reserve is likely to cut interest rates this week, boosting gold prices. However, gold's gains were limited by the dollar after the U.S. reported a smaller than expected 1.8 percent drop in second-quarter GDP. Gold prices are expected to have limited upside, with an opportunity to test 1411 support after the fed meeting. Current recommendations focus on important $1,427 and $1,430 resistance.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27345/27420 resistance
27090/27010 support
The Dow future losses after the first reading of U.S. second-quarter GDP beat expectations. Fed may cut rate expected to be limited, investors are focused on improving U.S. jobs data and U.S. -China relations, hoping the trade talks will revive the investment climate and lift stocks. Currently, keep an eye on technical support 27090 and 27010, and resistance levels for reference 27345 and 27420.

BTCUSD:
9900 / 10250 resistance
9350 / 9000 support
US economy growth over expected. US real GDP over 1.8% expected, the market expected Fed maybe only cut 25 basic point in this end of month, US dollar gains. Now, it is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Recommend keep watching the gold price volatility how affected the bitcoin price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.


Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

U.S. second-quarter real GDP forecasts and the dollar forecasts


The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which votes on Fed funds rate through its discussion meetings, holds eight regular meetings each year in Washington, US and its schedule is made public each year.

The interest rates increase or decrease reflects the good and bad of economic growth and inflation. During a booming economy, higher interest rates mean faster growth and higher returns on investment, which is good for the dollar. Generally, during the period of economic growth and inflation growth in certain of the time. The federal reserve will raise interest rates reasonably according to the economic growth expectations and match the growth rate level, against inflation. But the inflation and economic growth that attracting the market to the value of the dollar’s asset investments, bullish dollars. If the economy drops, interest rates will also be cut at a reasonable level, which will lower the value of the dollar's asset investments.



Gross Domestic Product is an abbreviation for GDP.

GDP is generally defined as the total market value of all final products and services produced in a country or region within a given period. (a quarter or a year).

The growth of GDP strong reflects the country's economic growth, the national income increase, consumption power increase and reflected the currency value stronger, but the decline of purchasing power. In this case, the central bank will likely raise interest rates and tighten the money supply, and rising interest rates will increase the attractiveness of its currency. It causes overseas investors to buy currencies, making the country's currency rise.

The general calculating of GDP is (C+I+G+(X-M), i.e. Consumption + Investment + Government spending + (Export - Import).

If U.S. consumption and investment rose in the most recent quarter, but fears that government spending and imports and exports fell by more than expected, it would reduce expectations for real GDP in the second quarter. The market expectation in this month.

The slowdown in U.S. growth in the second quarter was not expected to be downward in dollar and economy. Investors are also very smart, so the dollar index can remain strong in the near term, staying at 97, without a significant drop. Only earlier news that fed officials wanted to cut rates by more than 50 basis points sent the dollar index tumbling to 96.6.

The dollar bounced back to 97 after the fed clarified that it would consider a cut only 25 basis points at most. Now, investors are waiting for the latest estimate of real GDP for the second quarter, which could lead to the interest rate expectation that would be volatility in the dollar index and gold prices.



GDP is generally used to consider the country's monetary policy and find a reasonable interest rate level and methods.

First, the central bank measures the reasonable value of interest rates in a country by looking at past economic growth rates. In the United States, in particular, every time the Fed sets interest rates, it first compares the pace of economic growth over the past quarter with the level of current interest rates and then US inflation rates as a proxy.

General GDP and inflation will increase by 0.25% on average, and a 25 basis point interest rate rise will be taken into account.

On the contrary, GDP and inflation fell by an average of 0.25% and interest rates were cut by 25 basis points



For example, the fed's target fed fund rate was capped at 1.75% in May last year and was raised to 2% in June.

Refer to figure 1 and figure 2 for comparison.

figure 1: US Real GDP graph.

figure 2: Fed fund rate level graph



In the first quarter of 2018 and the last two quarters, U.S. GDP growth strong and the Fed fund rate at 1.75%. The Fed then looked at growth from the second quarter to the fourth quarter, and the country's average GDP growth rate was more than 2.5%, also higher than the fed's rate at the time. By June 2018, the Fed fund rate was increased to 2.5% after three increases from the original 1.75%. The economy has slowed since then, and the fed kept the Fed fund rates steady at 2.5% from January to June 2019.



According to the fed's interest rate decision, it will raise interest rates in line with the GDP growth rate of the last two quarters to cover the relevant interest rate level.

Use rate rise or cut, balance American economic growth and rate level range.

At present, the market and the President of the United States have concluded that the federal reserve should cut interest rates because of the economic slowdown in the United States. If you look at the real GDP growth chart of the United States in figure 2, you can see that the current GDP growth rate of the United States is still above the 2.5% level. Therefore, it is reasonable to evaluate the current level of the federal reserve interest rate.

But if the first reading of real GDP in the second quarter comes down, and GDP growth falls sharply below 2%, or if the fed needs to seriously consider cutting rates, the rate cut will remain close to GDP growth.



At the end of this month, the fed will hold its fifth meeting of the year.

The first estimate of second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product will be released on July 26. The correlation between the two is believed to be very high.

This approach is used by both institutional and professional investors to determine the trading strategy of the middle line, analyze and predict market movements, calculate the value of the dollar ahead of time, and prepare for the announcement of the results.

The dollar value is reflected step by step before the results are released, adjusting the relevant value level and showing a reasonable exchange rate level.



For example, if the first estimate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter was 1.8 % to 1.9%, the current fed rate target is 2.25% to 2.5 %. The fed is expected to be ready to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing its target rate to a range of 2% to 2.25%.

The fed's target rate is likely to remain unchanged, and more likely to raise rates again at a pace that would add to the dollar's gains, if U.S. second-quarter GDP results are in line with the growth of 2% or more. Conversely, if the GDP result falls below 1.75% or below, the fed fund rate will consider cutting 50 basis points or more, with a target rate of 1.75% to 2% or lower, which is bearish for the dollar.



It can be seen that the higher the GDP growth rate is, the greater the chance and rate increase will be to match the relative economic growth level. On the contrary, if the GDP growth rate is lower than the forecast value, the fed will significantly cut interest rate, also in line with the economic growth rate to fall, mutual coordination. If the second-quarter GDP figures are available on July 26, it is believed that markets will use them to assess how much the fed will raise or lower rates next week.

If U.S. GDP in the second quarter falls below market estimates or below 1.75% growth, a cut of more than 25 basis points could be more likely than a 50 basis point cut, and the dollar could fall more sharply. On the contrary, with U.S. GDP higher than market estimates in the second quarter, the Fed may not consider cutting interest rates, boosting the dollar and dollar assets.



Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.