Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, September 16 - 20, 2019

Greetings guys, it's worth recalling to see how our structure evolved over the past few weeks. Prices found a way and postponed our moment of truth a bit. All three scenarios remain valid with minor adjustments / new key levels.

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Greetings guys, it's beeen a while since my last update and the Euro is getting exciting enough to share my current view again.

I agree with Sive, but it's worth taking a look at the larger structure that gives context. The chart suggests how this sequence and its final wave may be subdividing down, pointed toward lower levels with a potential final target in the 1.0900 - 1.0850 region.

While there is no evidence a bottom has been established the divergence between price and momentum signals the decline may be in its final stage. In this case price has no business being above 1.1109 until this wave completes. A decline below yesterday's 1.0990 low will imply that wave 5 remains in action.

On the upside, the earliest sign of a bullish turn would be a push through 1.1109. A poke above 1.1109 would provide a hint that the decline may be complete and that red A wave has commenced. In this case price should keep on higher towards the next critical resistance at 1.125. Any subsequent decline would be considered to be corrective in nature. Keep in mind that the confirmation level for a bullish turn resides at 1.1412.

So be prepared for a sudden new low followed by a swift reversal unless prices keep advancing above 1.1109 and towards 1.125. Huge swings are probable.

Good luck.

EURUSD_190918.gif
 
Good morning,

Today we try to find out what stands beyond recent rally on EUR. This is not natural action and do not treat it as reversal. This is technical action guys - preparation to Fed. Yesterday and since the begninning of the week we do not have some valuable statistics or statements from ECB representatives, that could make impact on EUR/USD balance.

Some people explain this by easing situation around Armaco and crude oil attack, like a demand for safe haven USD has decreased. But we think different.

When you saw this kind of action last time - strong opposite swings every day. It means two things - these swings are emotional and market is nervous. And it is the reason for that:
View attachment 44458

In weekend the probability of rate cut was at 95%, but take a look what has happened - now it is almost 50/50%

View attachment 44459

That's what we talked about in our report - be prepared to surprises from J. Powell. Current rally on EUR could just partial USD position covering as uncertainty rises on Fed decision.

So, think twice whether to take part in this journey. Still, if you would like to, technically you could use couple of tools. Now we could talk only on long trade as we do not have bearish setup at all. We need downside breakout of 1.10 area to start speaking on short positions.
So, first tool is daily engulfing pattern. As usual - wait minor retracement back in its body to buy at some Fib level. Invalidation point is the same - 1.10 lows. Targets are - 1.11 is COP on 1H chart and 1.1180 XOP on 4H...
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Second scenario - use stop "Buy" order above the "B" point Market will break this resistance (which is also daily K-area) on a background of dovish comments from the Fed.

That's all that we see right now. But, personally guys, I'm tuned on big collapse and breaking of 1.09 area today. I do not have any position on EUR, because I do not trade fundamental releases, but our fundamental analysis tells that Fed statement should be more hawkish today. Good luck to everybody.
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Thank you.
 
Sive
I believe yesterday was people closing positions from last week, ahead of the Fed today. There was a confluence area around 1.1110 to 1.1125 that was hit on 9/13. Hopefully we will not see too crazy of a swing but should anyone be in from last week then maybe close and have a sell sitting between 1.1110 and 1.1125 to take advantage of a retest on that resistance area.
 
Greetings guys, it's beeen a while since my last update and the Euro is getting exciting enough to share my current view again.

I agree with Sive, but it's worth taking a look at the larger structure that gives context. The chart suggests how this sequence and its final wave may be subdividing down, pointed toward lower levels with a potential final target in the 1.0900 - 1.0850 region.

While there is no evidence a bottom has been established the divergence between price and momentum signals the decline may be in its final stage. In this case price has no business being above 1.1109 until this wave completes. A decline below yesterday's 1.0990 low will imply that wave 5 remains in action.

On the upside, the earliest sign of a bullish turn would be a push through 1.1109. A poke above 1.1109 would provide a hint that the decline may be complete and that red A wave has commenced. In this case price should keep on higher towards the next critical resistance at 1.125. Any subsequent decline would be considered to be corrective in nature. Keep in mind that the confirmation level for a bullish turn resides at 1.1412.

So be prepared for a sudden new low followed by a swift reversal unless prices keep advancing above 1.1109 and towards 1.125. Huge swings are probable.

Good luck.

Hi Stag,
Thanks for update buddy, it is always interesting to read, some fresh ideas and different EW view is always an advantage.
 
Morning guys,

So, miracle has not happened and Fed was not able to lead EUR out from indecision condition. We definitely will take a close look at Fed statement in our weekly report, as usual, but in two words - it is not as bad as it is treated right now. J Powell mostly confirms expected major stats for nearest two years - GDP, inflation, employment etc. and keeps balance of EU and US economy that is a core of our fundamental view.

At the same time, the voting data shows big disagreement among members. Almost 30% of voters have called for no rate change. We will get definite results in Fed minutes next month, but this is definitely an indicator of policy change. Stock and bond markets have treated Fed decision as slightly hawkish. But it was not enough to push EUR out of consolidation.

It means that we can't plan something long-term on EUR by far. All our setups will be short-term until EUR will leave 1.09-1.11 range in any direction. Somehow I gravitate more to idea of downside continuation, based on our long-term fundamental view:
eur_d_19_09_19.png


In shorter-term perspective, I suggest that some action could happen next week, when investors spend weekend with new information from the Fed. Meantime we have triangle/diamond consolidation, that keeps door open for any direction. Say, we could easily imagine here downside butterfly or upside breakout.
eur_4h_19_09_19.png


Technically, context is bullish due daily MACD direction and price standing above crucial 1.10 Fib support. In general our bullish engulfing setup, that we've discussed yesterday is still valid. Here we've got "222" Buy right at 5/8 Fib level. While engulfing lows stand intact - this setup is valid. Target stands the same - 1.11 larger COP and AB=CD objective points. No valuable bearish setups by far:
eur_1h_19_09_19.png
 
Suissie happened..Maybe this will help euro to break HH of this correction.. USDCHF is red/white, EURUSD is white line.
 

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Nice set up is developing..
Hi Minimax > I have seen a few of your posted charts here on FPA & I would like to ask you if you are a intraday trader or rather an overnight swing trader? I ask because oftentimes the exact point of trade entry will be considerably different despite trading the exact same price swing depending upon which trading style is being employed. With reference to your chart above, I take it that you still have not entered the trade at the time the chart was posted, correct? If so, then I would judge that you are overnight swing trading. A good intraday trader would already have been into the trade either at or near to the terminus of the C wave of wave # 2. Please do enlighten me about your personal trading "style", is it overnight or are you really doing intraday trading? I shall kindly await your considered reply. Cheerio.
 
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