Daily Technical and Fundamental analysis for multi pairs.

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USD/CAD analysis | Nov 08, 2019

Fundamental:

About USD
Last US-NFP came to be 128K vs forecast 90K. Revision of previous NFP was also significantly positive, revised from 136K to 180K.

US-China trade deal has been making positive progress. Trump is trying his best to have a good deal ahead of 2020 US presidential election.

Hence, overall outlook seems positive.


About CAD

Last GDP release was 0.1% less than forecast. Probability of upcoming policy rate cut by BOC has Kept CAD restrained, CAD has lost against USD whereas other currencies like AUD, NZD and EUR had gained against USD in last week of Oct .

Today released employment data came to be -1.8K vs forecast 14.7K.

Hence, recent outlook seems negative.


Technical:

BC move made a small bullish gartley shown in yellow color, so CAD was moving up and broke high of Oct 30 (BOC statement day) right after today's release of employment data.

ABCD100.0 coincides with FIB78.6 of the whole swing down, which makes this area important. This is the next target of USD/CAD.
View attachment 45285
Moved SL to BE.
 
C
Bullish Garley/222 pattern at EUR/USD

FIB61.8 (1.09939 - light green horizontal line) of upswing XA almost coincides with ABCD100.0, which makes a bullish gartley/222 pattern on D1/daily time-frame. The round no. 1.10000 also coincides with support cluster area formed between FIB61.8 and ABCD161.8, that makes this area even more significant.

It still keeps the chances of bullish continuation of EUR/USD intact. Earlier we had similar view. If EUR/USD makes a bullish candle or chart pattern on H1 even after closure of D1 below FIB61.8, chances of bullish reversal will still be on the table. However, if prices goes to D area but doesn't close below the FIB level; it will plot even stronger scenario for bullish reversal.

View attachment 45342
Correction: FIB61.8 (1.09939 - light green horizontal line) of upswing XA almost coincides with ABCD161.8
 
NZD/USD analysis | Nov 11, 2019
As per risk part of my previous analysis, NZD has technically turned bearish because the 3-drive has been fully validated as price broke below previous swing low.

We can target next support that is FIB61.8 of the whole swing up. Set TP 2.0 pips + spread above FIB61.8.
View attachment 45320

Risk: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and statement is due to release at 8 p.m. EST, Nov 12 ( 2 p.m. NZ time, Nov 13). 60% of analysts all over the globe are expecting a rate cut to 0.75% but 40% analysts including Westpac are expecting no rate cut and similar statement to that of Sep 25.

This uncertainty led NZD to a new low in last week and may continue to weigh on it more because professional traders sell during uncertainty.

Nevertheless, profit taking from sell positions ahead of the news may push NZ a bit higher; therefore current sell position has tight stop and we should move SL to BE as soon as we get +10.0 pips floating.
Ahead of RBNZ decision, closed sell trade with +25.0 pips at closure of London session.
 
GBP/USD technical analysis | Nov 12, 2019

The bullish thrust with all candles (7 bullish candles) closed above 3-3 SMA (blue line) makes a ground for Bread & Butter and Double Repo patterns.

Bread and Butter pattern had already completed with leg BC. Then price closed back below 3-3 SMA on Nov 5, which makes a sort of Double Repo. It's not a perfect Double Repo because it has taken almost 10 candles to form it wheres a perfect Double Repo is supposed to be formed within 3-6 candles. Nevertheless, further retracement still seems to be on the table.

Classical target of Double Repo is FIB50.0 of thrust (1.26027 - light green horizontal line) that makes a support cluster with ABCD161.8 and abcd127.2. GBP/USD is very sensitive to any news related to Brexit, so we are not taking this farther target.

Other support is FIB38.2 (1.26991 - light green horizontal line) that almost coincides with ABCD127.2 and abcd100. We are not taking this target either because we want to exit as early as possible especially if very nearer target can give good risk:reward.

We are targeting ABCD100.0 (+2.0 pips & spreads) and had moved our SL to BE already.

View attachment 45340
Closed sell trade with +24.0 pips at closure of London session.
 
Bearish Gartley/222 pattern on USD/CHF

On daily/D1 time-frame:

A bearish Gartley/222 pattern was formed as FIB88.6 (0.99772) coincided with abcd100 at daily closing of Nov 11. The pattern became significant after formation of engulfing bearish candle.

If Fed's Powell is gonna be dovish on Wed & Thu and upcoming CPI & retail sales are gonna be equal to/less than forecast, USD/CHF may reach ABCD100.
USD CHF_Nov 12_2019.jpg


On H4 time-frame:

I am setting TP at ABCD161.8 (+2.0 pips & spread), it makes a support cluster with classical target of the engulfing candle of daily time-frame. Keeping the target minimum ahead of economic events and data is advisable. If my target is hit before release of US CPI tomorrow, I will look for a re-entry to trade the gartley of D1 with CPI. Otherwise, I will keep the trade on hold because I am not expecting a positive surprise in CPI. I am not expecting Powell to be hawkish either.

Risk: SL few pips above today's high (C point of ABCD of H4).
USD CHF_H4_Nov 12_2019.png
 
Sell CAD/CHF | Nov 12, 2019

Having seen scenario of CAD and CHF in previous analyses, selling CAD and buying CHF makes a perfect trade. Therefore, we are selling CAD/CHF.

Here is what I see on CAD/CHF:

We can set SL above right shoulder and can target either FIB50.0 (minimum target, it fulfills R:R::1:1) or ABCD100. There is no upcoming significant schedules even/data from Canada or Switzerland this week. I am not expecting BOC's Poloz to be hawkish on Thu.

Therefore, the price may go to ABCD100.0 in style of Newton's first law of motion. My 1st trade law of motion: price may remain at rest (sideways move in tight range) on in uniform motion (trending in a direction) unless an external force is applied. Technical levels and economic data/events work as external force.

If no external force applied, the fall may exceed to FIB61.8 that makes supprt cluster with ABCD100 or even to classical target of Head & Shoulder that coincides with FIB78.6.
CAD CHF_Nov 21_2019.png
 
NZD/USD analysis | Nov 13, 2019

The 3-drive pattern mentioned in previous analysis has completed its minimum target on Nov 08 as price closed below low of Oct 30. Besides this technical factor, the fundamental factor of the fall was probability of Official Cash Rate Cut. But RBNZ didn't cut OCR today and this surprise built bullish scenario back again as the price erased fall of almost last six trading days in minutes. Not only did it erase the fall but also stayed around 0.6400 until end of RBNZ press conference. In press conference, governor Orr said that economy as per his assessment is doing well, so he doesn't see a need of rate cut.



On daily/D1 time-frame: target is where ABCD161.8 & abcd61.8 coincides, this area also makes a resistance cluster with FIB50.0 of whole swing down and previous swing lows.
NZD USD_Nov 13_2019.png


On H1 time-frame: Overbought RSI makes a ground for some downward correction/retracement. FIB50.0 coincides with previous swing high, which makes this price level a significant support. If the pair retraces down to this support level, there is high probability that it may return back to upside from here. Therefore, we have a buy limit here. However, we cannot be sure that it will retrace down to this support level, so we have already entered half buy position and kept half for buy limit.
NZD USD_H1_Nov 13_2019.png
 
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Bearish Gartley/222 pattern on USD/CHF

On daily/D1 time-frame:

A bearish Gartley/222 pattern was formed as FIB88.6 (0.99772) coincided with abcd100 at daily closing of Nov 11. The pattern became significant after formation of engulfing bearish candle.

If Fed's Powell is gonna be dovish on Wed & Thu and upcoming CPI & retail sales are gonna be equal to/less than forecast, USD/CHF may reach ABCD100.
View attachment 45348

On H4 time-frame:

I am setting TP at ABCD161.8 (+2.0 pips & spread), it makes a support cluster with classical target of the engulfing candle of daily time-frame. Keeping the target minimum ahead of economic events and data is advisable. If my target is hit before release of US CPI tomorrow, I will look for a re-entry to trade the gartley of D1 with CPI. Otherwise, I will keep the trade on hold because I am not expecting a positive surprise in CPI. I am not expecting Powell to be hawkish either.

Risk: SL few pips above today's high (C point of ABCD of H4).
View attachment 45349
ABCD61.8 of daily time-frame, classical target of engulfing candle of daily time frame & ABCD161.8 coincide at the same point. We had set our minimum TP target at that point. The trade has been accomplished at TP. But we may enter a sell position again after 30% upward retracement of CD of H4 and we'll set next nearest TP target at the point where FIB50.0 of whole upswing made between Aug 13 & Oct 03 & B/a of D1 coincide.
 
Sell CAD/CHF | Nov 12, 2019

Having seen scenario of CAD and CHF in previous analyses, selling CAD and buying CHF makes a perfect trade. Therefore, we are selling CAD/CHF.

Here is what I see on CAD/CHF:

We can set SL above right shoulder and can target either FIB50.0 (minimum target, it fulfills R:R::1:1) or ABCD100. There is no upcoming significant schedules even/data from Canada or Switzerland this week. I am not expecting BOC's Poloz to be hawkish on Thu.

Therefore, the price may go to ABCD100.0 in style of Newton's first law of motion. My 1st trade law of motion: price may remain at rest (sideways move in tight range) on in uniform motion (trending in a direction) unless an external force is applied. Technical levels and economic data/events work as external force.

If no external force applied, the fall may exceed to FIB61.8 that makes supprt cluster with ABCD100 or even to classical target of Head & Shoulder that coincides with FIB78.6.
View attachment 45350
The minimum TP target, FIB50.0 of whole swing up between Aug 7 - Oct 28, has been hit. The trade has been accomplished at TP. We may re-enter sell again after 30% upward retracement of total move down from peak of right shoulder, C.
 
ABCD61.8 of daily time-frame, classical target of engulfing candle of daily time frame & ABCD161.8 coincide at the same point. We had set our minimum TP target at that point. The trade has been accomplished at TP. But we may enter a sell position again after 30% upward retracement of CD of H4 and we'll set next nearest TP target at the point where FIB50.0 of whole upswing made between Aug 13 & Oct 03 & B/a of D1 coincide.
A sell was re-entered as planned, already running in profit.
sell again USD CHF.png
 
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