2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

[SOLID ECN LLC]

ETHUSD: Bearish Trends Below Ichimoku Cloud​

[/url]

Solid ECN – The ETHUSD price stabilizes below the Ichimoku cloud after pulling back from the 38.2% Fibonacci support level at $2,801. The technical indicators are bearish, with the Relative Strength Index hovering below 50 and the Awesome Oscillator below the signal line, its bars in red.

The ETHUSD chart above shows that the pair trades within a bearish flag. Therefore, from a technical standpoint, the trend remains bearish, and the decline will likely extend to the lower band of the flag, followed by the $2,717 support level.

Conversely, the bull market would be invalidated if the price crosses and stabilizes above the flag.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

ETHUSD: Bearish Trends Below Ichimoku Cloud

Solid ECN – The ETHUSD price stabilizes below the Ichimoku cloud after pulling back from the 38.2% Fibonacci support level at $2,801. The technical indicators are bearish, with the Relative Strength Index hovering below 50 and the Awesome Oscillator below the signal line, its bars in red.

The ETHUSD chart above shows that the pair trades within a bearish flag. Therefore, from a technical standpoint, the trend remains bearish, and the decline will likely extend to the lower band of the flag, followed by the $2,717 support level.

Conversely, the bull market would be invalidated if the price crosses and stabilizes above the flag.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

Canadian Bonds and Inflation Trends Amid US Fed Expectations​

Solid ECN – The Canadian 10-year government bond yield has stabilized at 3.78%, a peak not seen since November. This rate holds steady as investors carefully balance their expectations between the US Federal Reserve maintaining a strong stance and anticipating a potential rate cut from the Bank of Canada (BoC).

Amid this backdrop, new economic data revealed that Canada's annual inflation rate in March was recorded at 2.9%, which was below the expected figures. This decline in inflation is noteworthy as it indicates a possible easing in price pressures within the economy. Core inflation measures, closely monitored by the Canadian central bank, also dipped more than anticipated. This decline further bolsters the belief that underlying inflation in Canada might be settling down.

These inflation trends come as Canada has observed an uptick in its national unemployment rate and contractionary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings earlier in the month. These indicators typically suggest a slowdown in economic activity.

The combination of these factors has led to significant market speculation. Nearly two-thirds of investors now foresee a rate cut by the BoC in the upcoming June meeting. This expectation has provided substantial support to Canadian government bonds, helping them withstand the pressures that have led to a more pronounced selloff in US Treasury bonds.

As the market anticipates the BoC's next moves, these developments are critical for investors and policymakers alike, offering a glimpse into the potential directions of Canada's financial and economic landscape.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

USDCHF Analysis: Bollinger Bands & Bull Markets​

Solid ECN – The USDCHF trades sideways in a narrow range between 0.915 and 0.908. The 4-hour chart above shows that the Bollinger bands are also squeezed. The squeezed Bollinger bands can be interpreted as the market resting and waiting for economic updates from the central banks. It is worth noting that the Awesome Oscillator divergence signaled this correction or consolidation phase.

From a technical perspective, the USDCHF is in a bull market, trading inside a rising flag. The uptrend will likely continue if the price steps above the 0.915 resistance.

Conversely, the Ichimoku cloud, or the lower band of the flag, stands between the bull and bear markets. Should the price dip and stabilize itself below 0.906, the bull market would be invalidated, and the decline would aim for the 0.8991 mark.​