2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

[SOLID ECN LLC]

USDCHF

The USDCHF pair continued to decline to surpass our waited target at 0.9135 and reach few pips away from the recently recorded low at 0.9060, noticing that the price begins to rebound bullishly to build bullish wave that we expect to target 0.9220 followed by 0.9316 levels as next positive stations.

Therefore, the bullish bias will be expected for today, supported by stochastic positivity, noting that breaking 0.9060 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to resume the main bearish wave.​

 

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EURUSD​

The EURUSD pair begins today with clear positivity to attack 1.0745 level and attempts to breach it, which hints heading to achieve new gains in the upcoming sessions, while it faces negative pressure by stochastic that might hinder the mission to rise.

Therefore, we prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level followed by detecting its next destination clearly, noting that the contradiction between the technical factors provides another reason for neutrality. Note that confirming breaching 1.0745 will push the price to achieve positive targets that start at 1.0800 and extend to 1.0925, while consolidating below it will press on the price to resume the bearish wave that targets 1.0620 followed by 1.0515 as next main stations.​

 

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GBPUSD​

The GBPUSD pair continues to fluctuate within sideways and tight track since yesterday, noticing that stochastic gets rid of its negative momentum to approach the oversold areas, waiting to motive the price to resume the bullish trend that its next targets located at 1.2260 followed by 1.2440.

The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid unless breaking 1.2070 and holding below it.​

 

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USDJPY

The USDJPY pair settles around 134.00 level since yesterday, affected by stochastic negativity that slows the intraday bullish wave, waiting to resume the rise and achieve our positive targets that start at 135.40 and extend to 137.70 after surpassing the previous level.

Therefore, we will keep our bullish overview conditioned by the price stability above 133.30, as breaking it will put the price under the negative pressure again, to head towards visiting 131.75 areas initially.
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EURUSD

A relief on the markets triggered by actions of US authorities over the weekend, aimed at containing risk from SVB collapse, turned out to be short-lived. US and European stock markets rallied yesterday but those moves are being reversed today. German DAX futures (DE30) are trading over 1% lower at press time while S&P 500 futures (US500) drop 0.6%. DE30 bears attempt to break below 15,000 pts mark at press time. A move lower on equity markets is accompanied by strengthening of USD which pressures EURUSD and GOLD.

While there is no clear reason behind the drop, it looks like markets remain nervous due to the situation in the banking sector. However, attention may be turning to the European banking sector. Shares of Credit Suisse are trading 10% lower today and hit a fresh record low. Credit Suisse top shareholder ruled out any further financial assistance to the European bank, which has been plagued by issues over recent years.

EURUSD plunged and tested a key near-term support zone in the 1.0675 area, marked with previous local low, 100-period moving average (H1 interval) as well as the lower limit of market geometry. A break below would, at least in theory, hint a bearish trend reversal.

DE30 has once again failed to break above the 15,244-15,285 pts resistance zone and launched a pull back. The index is attempting to make a break below psychological 15,000 pts at press time.​

 

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AUDJPY

Monthly activity data from China was released during the Asian trading session and turned out to be mixed. This was the first monthly activity reading from China in 2023 and included year-to-date data for February, so for January and February combined. Industrial production missed expectations slightly, retail sales came more or less in-line with market expectations and urban investments beat expectations. While data came in mixed compared to expectations, a point to note is that all three metrics increased compared to year ago values. Small beat in retail sales data is welcome as Chinese authorities hinted they aim to leave fiscal spending more or less unchanged compared to 2022, meaning that domestic demand will be key in achieving goals set for 2023.

China, Monthly activity data for January-February period​

• Industrial Production: 2.4% YoY vs 2.7% YoY expected
• Retail Sales: 3.5% YoY vs 3.4% YoY expected
• Urban Investments: 5.5% YoY vs 4.3% YoY expected​

As it is usually the case, the Australian dollar moved following the release of Chinese data as China is a key trading partner for Australia, especially when it comes to commodities exports. Taking a look at AUDJPY at D1 interval, we can see that the pair jumped earlier today (orange circle) but has since erased all of the gains and turned lower. A point to note is that today's upward move could be seen as an attempt to break back above the lower limit of a recently broken upward channel. Attempts to climb back above this hurdle were made today, yesterday and on Monday and failed on all three days, suggesting that resumption of declines may be on the cards.​

 

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AUDUSD​

AUDUSD broke above the 0.6630 resistance zone following a solid jobs report from Australia. The pair is now testing the 200-hour moving average (purple line).

 

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EURUSD​

EURUSD pair’s strong decline stopped at 1.0515 yesterday, which formed solid support against the price, to rebound bullishly and start building bullish wave on the intraday basis, motivated by stochastic positivity.

Therefore, we expect to witness more bullish bias in the upcoming sessions, and the targets begin at 1.0640 and extend to 1.0745 after surpassing the previous level. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.0515 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to suffer additional losses that reach 1.0440.​

 

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GBPUSD​

GBPUSD pair attempted to break the minor support 1.2060 but it consolidates above it, to keep the chances valid to resume the bullish trend on the intraday basis, waiting to visit 1.2260 as a next main target.

Stochastic provides clear positive signals now to support the expectations to rise in the upcoming sessions, and breaching 1.2145 will ease the mission of achieving the waited positive targets. We remind you that breaking 1.2060 will push the price to decline to test the most important support at 1.1940 before any new positive attempt.​

 

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USDJPY​

The USDJPY pair faced clear negative pressure to break 133.30 and settles below it by today’s open, to head towards expected turn to decline, on its way to achieve negative targets that start at 131.60 and extend to 130.50.

The EMA50 forms negative pressure against the price to support the continuation of the expected bearish trend, while stochastic positivity might cause some sideways fluctuation before resuming the decline. Note that breaching 133.30 and holding above it will reactivate the positive scenario and push the price towards 135.40 initially.​