2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

EURUSD's Bullish Momentum: Indicators and Support Levels​


The EURUSD currency pair consolidates its recent gains above the 50% Fibonacci support level, the 1.091 mark, where it formed a hammer candlestick pattern.

As of writing, the Euro trades at about 1.092, with the RSI indicator hovering above 50, which can be interpreted as a signal for the continuation of the uptrend. The EMA 50 and the lower band of the bullish channel support the current uptick momentum. That said, the bull market is likely to extend and test 1.098 as its first barrier.

Conversely, the 38.2% level divides the bull market from the bear market. Therefore, if the price dips below this level, the bull market should be invalidated.​

GBPUSD Uptrend Signals: RSI Indicator's Positive Shift​


Solid ECN – The pound sterling is coming back from the 50 EMA, and as of writing, it is trading at about 1.279. The ascending trendline depicted in red provides support alongside the EMA 50. Interestingly, The RSI indicator has returned above the signal line, indicating that the uptrend will likely resume.

From a technical standpoint, as long as GBPUSD trades above the 1.2745 mark, the bull market will remain valid and will likely aim for the 50% Fibonacci resistance, followed by the 61.8%.

Conversely, a dip below the EMA 50 would invalidate the bullish market.​

Mixed Indicators for the USDJPY​


The U.S. Dollar has recovered from 146.4 and tested the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at the 148.1 mark. The EMA 50 and the Ichimoku cloud reinforce this resistance level, making it more robust.

The RSI and the AO indicators signal a bull market; however, the ADX indicates a slowdown in market momentum, which could be interpreted as a halt in the recent uptick bias.

From a technical standpoint, we are in a bear market, and the current bullish wave could be a consolidation phase. Therefore, the market will likely decline if the price remains below the EMA 50. A break below the ascending trendline, depicted in red, can trigger selling pressures.

Conversely, if the USDJPY bulls can cross the EMA 50 and stabilize the price above it, the bear market should be invalidated, and traders should reevaluate the market.​

EURUSD Bulls Await Consolidation​


Solid ECN – As expected, the Euro rose in the last day's trading session against the U.S. Dollar. The EMA 50 and the Ichimoku cloud maintained the bull market. However, we noticed a long wick candlestick pattern formed in today's trading session, which could be construed as the beginning of a consolidation phase since it is a higher low.

From a technical standpoint, the market is bullish, but it is best to wait for the consolidation phase to be over. Please note that the EURUSD price should exceed the trendline in black for the uptrend to resume. In this scenario, the bullish market will be triggered and will likely aim for the 1.1 mark.

The lower band of the channel plays a pivotal role between the bull and bear markets. For the uptrend to be invalidated, the price must dip below the 38.2% Fibonacci support.​

GBPUSD's Next Move: A Crucial Phase Beyond Fibonacci Resistance​


Solid ECN – As anticipated, the pound sterling is on an upward trajectory against the U.S. Dollar, and this uptrend persists. The RSI indicator remains above 50, while the ADX signal, hovering around the 20 level, does not indicate significant volatility. Apparently, the market awaits for the price to surpass 50% Fibonacci resistance before adding new bets on the current trend.

From a technical perspective, the bulls have already disregarded the previous day's high, and momentum is likely to continue rising after a minor struggle with the aforementioned Fibonacci level. If this scenario comes into play, the 78.6% level would be the next target.

Please note, dear traders, the bull market is robust, and for it to be invalidated, the price must dip below the Ichimoku cloud.​

Australian Dollar Outlook: Bullish Trends and EMA 50 Support​


Solid ECN — The Australian dollar has stabilized above the 38.2% Fibonacci support level and the previously broken descending channel. Interestingly, the ADX indicator is returning above the 25 level, which is interpreted as a sign that a new trend is on the horizon. This signal from the ADX aligns with the RSI, which hovers above the 50 level.

From a technical standpoint, the EMA 50 supports the currency pair's bullish bias. If the price stays above it, buyers' next target would be the bullish channel's upper band, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.

Conversely, the EMA 50 is the critical pivot between the bull and bear markets. The uptrend should be invalidated if the U.S. Dollar pushes the Australian dollar below the mentioned moving average.​

Analyzing NZDUSD: The Battle within the Bearish Channel​


In this evening's trading session, the U.S. Dollar is pushing the price in its favor against New Zealand's currency. The technical indicators give mixed signals; therefore, we rely on the price action and the support and resistance areas.

From a technical standpoint, the pair trades within a narrow, bearish channel, which can be interpreted as a sideways market. The level at 0.613 acts as support; if this level is breached, the NZDUSD will likely dip to the next support, which is located at about 0.6111.

Conversely, the price must surpass 0.6182 for the uptrend to continue. In this case, March's higher high would be retested.​

Analyzing the Potential Reversal in EURUSD Trends​


The U.S. Dollar has returned from the 1.096 resistance level against the European currency. This ceiling is supported by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the pair failed to surpass it on March 8.

As of writing, the EURUSD pair trades at about 1.088, close to the 1.086 support and slightly below the lower band of the bullish channel. Interestingly, this price is below the Ichimoku cloud and the EMA 50, which could be interpreted as a potential trend reversal.

From a technical standpoint, the bullish trend is invalidated since the price dipped below the cloud. However, the bears are required to close below the 38.2% Fibonacci level to trigger the main selling pressure. Failure to push the price below this level will likely lead to the price returning above the EMA 50, indicating that the uptrend may continue.


For the bearish trend to resume, the price must close below the 1.086 level. Going short in the current market situation is risky because the bearish breakout lacks valid confirmation.​
Indicators Point to a New Bearish Trend in GBPUSD


Solid ECN – The Pound sterling lost ground against the U.S. Dollar in yesterday's trading session. As depicted in the GBPUSD 4-hour chart, the pair dipped below the EMA 50 and is currently testing it as a resistance level. Interestingly, technical indicators signal a bearish outlook, with the RSI hovering below 50 and the Awesome Oscillator showing red bars. Notably, the ADX currently hovers above the 25 level, which can be interpreted as the beginning of a new trend.

From a technical standpoint, the bears have broken below the bullish channel in red and are currently stabilizing the price at about 1.276. Therefore, as long as the price trades below the cloud, the secondary trend would be bearish, with the bears aiming for the 1.270 resistance, followed by 1.266.

The bearish technical analysis should be invalidated if the Pound sterling rises higher than the March 14 high, the 1.282 mark.​
Gold Price Stability Amid Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculation


On Friday, the price of gold remained stable, hovering around $2,160 per ounce. This marks its first decrease after three weeks of gains. The change comes amid uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. This uncertainty is due to unexpectedly high Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, coupled with a decrease in initial jobless claims.

These factors made investors rethink their previous expectations for more accessible monetary policies. Consequently, the likelihood of the Fed reducing rates in June has fallen to about 60% from the 74% estimated just last week. This shift has made gold, which does not yield interest, less attractive to investors.

However, gold's price is still near record highs, as it serves as a protective investment against inflation and increasing geopolitical tensions, especially after Russia decides to position its tactical nuclear weapons closer to NATO territories.​