AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Feb 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1967
Yesterday's firm break of 'psychological' 1.2000 handle and then weakness to a fresh 2-month low at 1.1958 due to continued usd's strength suggests recent decline from Jan's 1.2349 high remains in force, however, oversold condition is expected to keep price above 1.1898/03 and yield a much-needed minor correction early next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2000 signals temporary bottom is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.2040/50.

Ahead of U.S. jobs report, the euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to EI page for details) n pay attention to German industrial orders, if actual reading comes in weaker than forecast, this will give traders another reason for more euro bashing but beware of intra-day rebound due to pre-NFP short covering.

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AceTraderFx Feb 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2043
Although Fri's rally from Asian fresh 2-month trough of 1.1953 (Asia) to as high as 1.2049 in New York after downbeat U.S. jobs report confirms euro's decline from Jan's near 33-month peak at 1.2349 has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store, as long as 1.2087 holds, downside bias remains.

A daily close below 1.2000 signals recovery has ended and brings re-test of 1.1953 later. Only above 1.2087 risks stronger correction of said decline, then price may head back towards 1.2155 'later' this week.

On the eco. data front, Germany will kick off with industrial output n then EI Sentix investor confidence index. We have participation by ECB President Lagarde in a debate on the ECB Annual Report 2019 at the European Parliament at 16:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Feb 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2059
Although yesterday's marginal gain to 1.2066 on renewed usd's weakness due to return of risk appetite on the back of rally in U.S. stocks suggests recent fall from January's 1.2349 peak has made a temporary low at Friday's 2-month trough of 1.1953, near term loss of upward momentum would cap price below minor res at 1.2087 and yield retreat.

On the downside, a daily close below Mon's 1.2019 low would be 1st signal correction from 1.1953 has ended and yield weakness to 1.2000/03.

On the eco. data front, we have a slew of 2nd-tier data from Germany and Italy (please refer to our EI page for details). Later, we have ECB Chief Economist Lane speaking at a conference at 15:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Feb 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2110
Euro's resumption of near term upmove from Friday's 2-month bottom at 1.1953 to a 1-week high of 1.2121 in New York yesterday due to continued usd's weakness suggests recent fall from Jan's 1.2349 peak has made a low there and as long as 1.2066 (Monday high, now sup) holds, upside bias remains for further gain, overbought condition should cap price well below daily res at 1.2190.

Only a daily close below 1.2066 signals 1st leg of correction from 1.1953 over and risks weakness towards 1.2019 before prospect of rebound later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, Japan corporate goods price index, machine tool orders, China PPI, CPI, Germany CPI, HICP.
France industrial output, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, wholesale inventory, wholesale sales, Federal budget.

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AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2115
Euro's intra-day retreat from Wed's 11-day high of 1.2143 (Europe) suggests iintial consolidation would be seen before near term upmove from last Fri's 2-month trough of 1.1953 extends further gain, 'loss of momentum' should cap price well below daily res at 1.2222.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2089 dampens bullishness and risks stronger retracement of aforesaid rise twd 1.2066.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan market holiday, China market holiday.
UK RICS housing price balance, Germany wholesale price index.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims.

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AceTraderFx Feb 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2138
Euro's rebound from 1.2082 (Friday) to 1.2144 yesterday suggests re-test of last week's 1.2149 high would be forthcoming soon due to renewed usd's weakness on risk appetite, above would extend upmove from Feb's 1.1953 trough to 1.2190, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.2222.

Only below 1.2082 dampened bullishness and may risk stronger retracement of said rise to 1.2045/50.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
China market holiday, Japan tertiary industry activity.
France unemployment rate, Italy trade balance, Germany economic sentiment, current conditions, EU employment change, GDP.
Canada housing starts and US NY Fed manufacturing.

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AceTraderFx Feb 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2093
Euro's decline from Tue's 1.2169 high to 1.2096 in New York due to usd's broad-based rally in tandem with U.S. treasury yields, then intra-day weakness to 1.2084 in Asia suggests recent upmove from February's 2-month trough at 1.1953 has made a top and stronger retracement towards 1.2035 (61.8% r) may be seen after consolidation, however, reckon 1.2019 sup would remain intact.

Only a daily close above 1.2123 signals pullback is possibly over and risks re-test of 1.2169, then 1.2090 later.

Economic calendar is pretty light today with EU's construction output being the only data due out.

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AceTraderFx Feb 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2047
Euro's selloff from 1.2169 (Tuesday) to as low as 1.2024 due to usd's broad-based rally in tandem with U.S. yields strongly suggests early rise from February's 2-month bottom at 1.1953 has ended, a daily close below 1.2019 sup would add credence to this view and yield weakness towards there next week.

On the upside, only above 1.2082/84 dampens bearish outlook and may risk stronger gain to 1.2121/23.

Eco data is pretty light today n the only data due out later today is EU's consumer confidence at 15:00GMT.
We also have ECB Board member Schnabel speaking at 16:15GMT.

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AceTraderFx Feb 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2089
Although this week's decline from 1.2169 (Tuesday) to 1.2024 on Wednesday suggests recent upmove from February's 2-month bottom at 11.1953 has possibly ended there, yesterday's rebound on broad-based usd's retreat suggests sideways swings are in store with a 'neutral' bias.

As long 1.2049 holds, stronger retracement towards 1.2123 can't be ruled out but reckon 1.2141/44 would cap upside. below 1.2049 signals recovery over and yields subsequent weakness to 1.2019/24.

We have heavy data dump in the euro area countries today, please refer to our EI page for details. pay attention to Germany's n EU's mfg n services PMIs at 08:30GMT n 09:00GMT respectively.

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AceTraderFx Feb 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Feb 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2123
Euro's strong rise from 1.2024 (Wednesday) to as high as 1.2144 on Friday due to renewed usd's weakness on continued risk appetite suggests pullback from last week's high at 1.2169 (Tuesday) has ended and upmove from February's 2-month trough at 1.1953 would extend marginal gain, near term loss of momentum would limit upside to 1.2190.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.2083 (Friday low) signals top is made and shifts risk to downside for weakness towards 1.2049.

On the data front, we have key german Ifo data due out at 09:00GMT, pay attention to Ifo business climate for Feb, street forecast is 90.1, if actual reading is higher then expectation, then euro should head higher. ECB President Lagarde will speak at the European Semester Conference at 13:45 GMT.

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