AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Sept 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Sept 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1764
Despite yesterday's intra-day erratic rise from 1.1732 (Asia) to 1.1793 in New York morning, subsequent retreat in New York afternoon due to broad-based usd's rebound suggests choppy trading below Monday's 3-month peak at 1.1815 would continue ahead of FOMC rate decision, below 1.1724 would bring stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.1680/90.

On the upside, only above 1.1815 would extend recent rise towrds key daily res at 1.1852, however, loss of upward momentum suggests this res may hold on 1st testing.

On the data front, the only eco. data due out from euro area countries is France's consumer confidence.
Pay attention to speech by ECB's Mersh and Smets at a conference in Brussels at 07:00GMT, then ECB's Draghi will appear at a ceremony with a short speech in Berlin at 12:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1754
Despite yesterday's brief jump to 1.1798 after Fed's expected rate hike, subsequent retreat in post-FOMC New York suggests choppy trading below Mon's 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1815 would continue, below 1.1724/26 sup would confirm recent upmove has made a temporary top and bring stronger retracement to 1.1690 but sup at 1.1651 should hold.

On the upside, above 1.1815 would extend Medium Term rise from 1.1301 (August low) towards key daily res at 1.1852 should which hold on 1st testing due to loss of upward momentum.

ON the eco. data front, Itay will kick off with business and consumer confidence, EU's economic bulletin, Italy's PPI, EU's bus climate, eco. sentiment. industrial n services sentiment n consumer confidence, then Germany's SPI n HICP.
We also have a number of ECB officials speaking, pls refer to our EI section for details.

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AceTraderFx Oct 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1576
Yesterday's resumption of decline from last Monday's 3-1/2 month peak of 1.1815 to a 2-1/2 week low at 1.1564 suggests marginal weakness would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above key sup at 1.1526 (September's bottom) and bring a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1629 signals temporary low is made and yield stronger gain to 1.1651, however, reckon 1.1685 would cap upside.

The euro countries' eco. calendar is pretty light with EU PPI being the only data due out. However, we have ECB Galhau speaking in Paris at 14:30GMT.
There is EU Eco. and Financial Affairs Council meeting (ECOFIN) today which starts at 09:00GMT and ECB VP de Guindos will participate.

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AceTraderFx Oct 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Oct 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1547
Despite yesterday's initial selloff to a 6-week trough of 1.1505 due to continued market concerns on Italian budget deficit, subsequent rebound to 1.1570 in New York on short covering suggests range trading is in store before recent decline from September's 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1815 heads to 1.1475/80, loss of momentum is expected to keep price above 1.1452.

Only a daily close above 1.1600 signals temp. low is made, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement to 1.2623/28, then 1.1651.
Offers are tipped at 1.1570/80 with stops above 1.1600.
Bids are noted at 1.1525-15 with stops below 1.1500.

Today is PMI day in the euro zone, Italy wlll lick off with Marlit services PMI, then the same from France and Germany, then EU retail sales. Markets in Germany are on holiday.
We have ECB's Mersch speaking in Riga at 06:20GMT.

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AceTraderFx Oct 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1472
Although euro jumped in Asian morning from 1.1536 to 1.1594 on Italian budget cut news yesterday, subsequent retreat in Europe on broad-based euro selling and then selloff to a fresh 6-week low of 1.1465 on usd's rally in New York suggests recent down trend would head to 1.1420, oversold condition should prevent steep fall.

On the upside, only above 1.1536 indicates temp. low is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1594 before another fall.

Data due to release later on Thursday:
U.S. initial jobless claims, durable goods, and Canada Ivey PMI.

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AceTraderFx Oct 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1510
Despite extending recent decline to a fresh 6-week trough of 1.1464 initially in Asia yesterday, intra-day cable-led rebound in European morning, then subsequent rally to 1.1543 in New York morning suggests temporary low has been made and choppy sideways swings with upside bias is seen ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data.

As long as 1.1480/90 holds, stronger retracement to 1.1570 is envisaged, however, reckon res at 1.1594 should cap present rebound.
Below 1.1480 would yield marginal weakness, however, 'loss of downward momentum' would limit downside to 1.1420/30 today.

Ahead of U.S. payrolls data, euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data during European morning, pls refer to our EI section for details.

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AceTraderFx Oct 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1525
Despite intra-day wild swings following release of downbeat U.S. jobs report, euro's brief jump to 1.1550 in New York morning suggests recent decline from 1.1815 (September's high) has made a temporary low at last Thursday's 6-week trough at 1.1464 and upside bias remains for further gain after consolidation.
However, reckon previous res at 1.1594 should cap present rise.

On the downside, only a firm break of 1.1484 (New York low) signals correction is over and yields one more fall to 1.1430/40 before prospect of a stronger retracement.

On the eco. dat front, Germany will kick off with industrial production for Aug n then followed by EU's Sentix investor confidence index. ECB Board member Nowotny will be speaking at an event in Vienna at 16:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Oct 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1490
Despite euro's intra-day selloff in European morning due to active selling of euro on lingering Italian budget deficit concerns and then brief break of last week's 1.1464 low to a 7-week trough of 1.1460, lack of follow-through selling and subsequent bounce to 1.1499 in holiday-thinned North American session suggests temp. low is possibly made, above 1.1500/10 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.1550 before retreat.

Only below 1.1460 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1410/15 today.

Data due out later on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada housing starts, and U.S. NFIB business optimism.

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AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1538
Yesterday's anticipated rise to 1.1545 confirms euro's early decline from September's 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1815 has made a temporary low at Tuesday's fresh 7-week trough at 1.1432 and consolidation with upside bias remains for further headway towards 1.1594 res before prospect of retreat due to near term overbought condition.

Only a daily close below 1.1480 signals said correction has ended, then risk is seen for weakness to 1.1460/64, then re-test of 1.1432 next week.

The G20 FinMins n cenbank governors are in Bali, Indonesia for a 2-day meeting, keep an eye out on comments by G20 officials.

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AceTraderFx Oct 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1597
As euro has risen again in Asia today after intra-day brief but strong retreat from Thursday's 9-day high of 1.1599 to 1.1546 in New York, suggesting 'erratic' upmove from Tuesday's fresh 7-week trough at 1.1432 would head to 1.1629 after consolidation, loss of upward momentum is likely to cap price below 1.1651 today.

On the downside, a firm break of 1.1546 would be the 1st signal first leg of correction from 1.1432 over and risks stronger retracement to 1.1515 but 1.1480 should remain intact.

On the data front, Germany will release final CPI n HICP, the EU's industrial production. G20 FinMin and EU cenbank governors are attending the 2-day IMF World Forum in Bali.

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