AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1552
Friday's decline from 1.1610 to 1.1535 due to renewed market concerns of Italy's budget deficit and Brexit talks suggests corrective rise from last week's low at 1.1432 has made a top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1515, however, only a daily close below 1.1480 sup would bring re-test of 1.1432 later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1585 would suggest pullback is possibly over and risks gain towards 1.1610 but break there needed to extend said upmove towards 1.1629.

Although no eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, today is the deadline for Italy's budget, so expect fireworks if Italy sticks to its high debt to GDP budget plan.

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AceTraderFx Oct 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1585
Although yesterday's rally in Europe due to broad-based usd's weakness and then gain to session highs of 1.1606 in New York morning on downbeat U.S. retail sales suggests pullback from Fri's 10-day high at 1.1610 has ended and recent upmove from last Tuesday's 7-week trough at 1.1432 would extend marginal gain, 'loss of upward momentum' would cap euro below res at 1.1651.

On the downside, below 1.1535 (Fri low) signals correction from 1.1432 has ended and would yield weakness towards 1.1480 later this week.

Data to be released later on Tuesday:
Germany import price, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI, CPI (EU norm), trade balance, UK ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, DCLG house price index, EU trade balance.
U.S. PCE, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, JOLTS job openings, NAHB housing market index.

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AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1501
Yesterday's anticipated break of 1.1515 sup to 1.1496 after hawkish Fed minutes suggests euro's correction from October's 7-week trough at 1.1432 has ended at 1.1621 (Tuesday) and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness, oversold conditon is likely to keep price above 1.1460 and risk has increased for a recovery.

On the upside, only above 1.1548 signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1578/81 before down.

On the eco. data front, the only data due out is Germany's wholesale price index. Also, today is the second of the 3-day EU summit meeting. ECB Preisent Draghi and Board member Coure will participate in the Euro Summit and ECB's Nowotny will speak in Vienna at 08:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Oct 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1459
Euro's anticipated decline to 1.1450 in New York yesterday due to renewed usd's strength and continued Italian budget concerns suggests re-test of October's 7-week trough at 1.1432 would be forthcoming soon, break there would extend recent decline from September's peak at 1.1815 to 1.1395/00 before prospect of correction.

On the upside, only above 1.1527 defers present bearish scenario on the single currency and may risk stronger gain to 1.1548, possibly 1.1578/81.

The only eco. data due out is EU's current account. Today is the final day of the 3-day euro summit meeting, so pay attention to intra-day comments by EU officials.
Yesterday's positive comments made by ECB's Draghi briefly lifted euro from 1.1487 to 1.1517.

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AceTraderFx Oct 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1463
Despite euro's rally from Friday's 1.1433 low to 1.1535, then initial gain to 1.1550 in Europe on Monday, subsequent selloff to as low as 1.1456 on uncertainty over Italy's budget deficit suggests re-test of October's fresh 7-week trough at 1.1432 would be seen after consolidation.
However, loss of downward momentum is likely to limit weakness to 1.1395/00.

On the upside, only a move back above 1.1500 would prolong choppy sideways swings above 1.1432 and may risk another rise back to 1.1535, then 1.1550.

On the data front, the only data due out from the euro area countries in the morning is Germany's PPIn then EU;s consumer confidence later at 14:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Oct 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Oct 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1471
Yesterday's weakness to 1.1439 (Europe) suggests correction from last week's 1.1433 low (Friday) has ended at 1.1550 and subsequent rebound to 1.1494 in New York would bring sideways swings initially today before re-test of October's bottom at 1.1432, break would extend recent decline towards 1.1395.

Only above 1.1500 prolongs choppy trading above 1.1432/33 and risks another rise to 1.1578/81.

Data to be released later on Wednesday :
Japan manufacturing PMI, leading economic index, coincident index, France business climate, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, UK mortgage approvals.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, building permits, monthly home price, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, new home sales and Canada BoC rate decision.

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AceTraderFx Oct 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1408
Despite euro's intra-day recovery on short covering ahead of ECB's policy announcement after yesterday's break of previous Oct's 1.1432 low (now res) to a 2-month trough at 1.1389 would bring consolidation before weakness to 1.1345/50, however, below 2018 bottom at 1.1301 (dovish ECB's Draghi ?) needed to extend Medium Term downtrend to 1.1200 next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1432 signals temp. low is made and risk stronger retracement towards 1.1494 but 1.1550 res should cap upside.

Expect volatile swings in European morning as we have some important German data out ahead of ECB's policy announcement at 11:45GMT. Germany will release Gfk consumer confidence n then the jey German Ifo business climate and current conditions, if actual reading come in below street forecasts, then expect another round of euro bashing,however, as market is pretty short in the single currency, beware of a short-covering jump ahead of ECB Draghi's presser.

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AceTraderFx Oct 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1394
Despite euro's anticipated resumption of recent decline to a 10-week low of 1.1336 ahead of New York open on Friday, failure to re-test 2018 bottom at 1.1301 (AUG) and subsequent strong rebound to 1.1421 at New York close suggests temporary trough has been made and sideways swings are in store.

A daily close above 1.1432 res would bring stronger retracement to 1.1477 but 1.1494 should cap upside whilst below 1.1355 signals recovery over and yields weakness towards 1.1301.

The only eco. data due out from the euro area countries is Italy's PPI for September.

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AceTraderFx Oct 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Oct 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1379
Although euro's strong rebound from Fri's 2-month trough of 1.1336 to 1.1421 suggests recent decline has made a temporary low, yesterday's sideways swings should ended with one more fall, loss of momentum would keep price above 2018 bottom at 1.1301.

Only a daily close above 1.1432 would risk stronger correction towards 1.1494 before prospect of retreat later this week.

The euro area counties will release a slew of eco. data starting with France's prel. Q3 GDP and consumer spending, Germany's jobs data, Italy's GDP, consumer confidence, EU's prel. Q3 GDP, bus n eco. climate, industrial, services and consumer confidence and lastly in New York morning, Germany's prel. CPI data.
There is also a no. of ECB offcials speaking today, please refer to EI section for details.

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AceTraderFx Oct 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Oct 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1341
Euro's weakness to 1.1340 in New York Tuesday, then 1.1338 (Australia) today signals early correction from last Friday's 2-month low at 1.1336 has ended on the same day and downside bias remains for decline towards 2018 13-month bottom at 1.1301 (August) after consolidatiion, however, below there needed to retain bearishness for subsequent fall to 1.1240/50.

Expect 1.1388 to cap intra-day recover and yield another fall and only above 1.1400 may risk stronger gain to 1.1416/21 but reckon 1.1432 should cap upside.

Pay attention to a slew of euro area eco. data which is expected to move price around. Germany will kick off with retail sales, then France's CPI n Italy's unemployment. We also have some ECB officials speaking during European session, plrase refer to our EI section for details.

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