AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Jan 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1408
Euro's anticipated resumption of decline from last Thursday's 11-week high of 1.1570 to as low as 1.1382 yesterday confirms recent strong rise from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has made a top there and despite subsequent sterling-led rebound, as long as res at 1.1455 holds, further weakness is likely, however, loss of momentum should keep euro above 1.1346.

A daily close above 1.1455 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement of aforesaid fall towards 1.1491.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's CPI n HICP and then Italy will release industrial sales and orders. We have ECB Governing Council Member Nowotny delivering an opening address at a Euromoney conference in Vienna at 08:40GMT, then German EcoMon Atmaier will speak in Berlin at 09:30GMT n later at 17:30GMT, ECB member de Galhau will speak in Paris at 17:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1397
Despite euro's recovery after yesterday's marginal weakness to an 11-day low of 1.1377, as long as 1.1455 holds, recent decline from January's 11-week peak at 1.1570 would head towards 1.1351, loss of downward momentum should keep price above pivotal sup at 1.1310.

Above 1.1455 signals said fall has made a low and risk is seen for stronger subsequent gain to 1.1480/90.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Italy's trade bal n global trade balance, then EU's constriction output, HICP n core HICP. ECB Governing Council Board member Couere will speak sometime during Asian session at the G20 FinMin n central banking governors depuites meeting in Tokyo. ECB's Lautenschhlager will speak at a conference in Dublin at 11:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jan 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jan 201905:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1393
Despite euro's marginal weakness in New York session to a fresh 2-week low of 1.1370 on usd's gain following positive US/China trade talk news (but later denied), subsequent recovery suggests recent decline from January's 11-week peak at 1.1570 has possibly made a temporary bottom, above 1.1408 would bring retracement towards 1.1455 but res at 1.1491 should cap upside.

Only below 1.1370 risks marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum should limit downside to 1.1341/51 today and yield a long-overdue correction later today or Monday.

Today is the end of the 2-day G20 meeting of central bank deputies in Tokyo, we also have ECB's Lautenschlager speaking at 11:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1375
Despite euro's resumption of recent decline from Jan's 11-week peak of 1.1570 to a fresh 2-week low of 1.1353 in New York Friday due to usd's strength on market optimism over U.S./China trade talks, loss of downward momentum should keep price above January's bottom at 1.1310 and bring a long-overdue correction.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1411 signals temporary low has been made and would bring subsequent gain to 1.1450/55 before retreat.

The only eco. data from the euro area countries is Germany's PPI for Dec. ECB president Draghi n ECB Executive Board member Coeure will participate in Eurogroup meeting in Brussels later.

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AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1370
Although euro has swung sideways in lackluster Monday's session following resumption of recent decline from January's 11-week peak at 1.1570 to 1.1353, outlook remains mildly bearish for marginal weakness after consolidation, loss of downward momentum should keep price above January's bottom at 1.1310 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, a daily close above Monday's 1.1391 high signals temporary low is made and would bring stronger retracement to 1.1427 and possibly towards 1.1455.

ON the eco. dat fornt, Germany will release ZEW sentiment index n current conditions, then the EU will release ZRE eco. sentiment. Today is the ECCOFIN meeting and ECB's Vice President De Guindos will participate in the meeting.

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AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1362
Despite euro's resumption of recent decline from Jan's 11-week peak of 1.1570 to 1.1336 in New York morning, subsequent rebound suggests temporary low is possibly made and consolidation with upside bias is in store, a firm break above 1.1391 would add credence to this view and bring stronger gain to 1.1427, however, reckon res at 1.1455 should hold.

Only below 1.1336 risks marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above Jan's bottom at 1.1310 and yield an overdue correction of aforesaid fall.
Expect more range trading ahead of Thursday's key ECB monetary policy announcement n ECB Draghi's press conference, eurozone eco. calendar is pretty light today with France's business climate and Italy's PPI being the only data due out.

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AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1388
Euro's anticipated rebound to 1.1396 (Reuters) yesterday suggests recent decline from Jan's 11-week peak at 1.1570 has formed a temporary low at 1.1336 (Tuesday) and consolidation with upside bias remains for a stronger retarcement towards 1.1427, near term overbought condition would cap price below res at 1.1455 ahead of ECB monetary policy announcement and ECB Drgahi's press conference.

On the downside, only below 1.1351 signals correction is over and risks re-test of 1.1336, then weakness to January's bottom at 1.1310 but reckon daily sup at 1.1267/70 should remain intact.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, France will kick off with Markit January mfg and services PMIs, then the same from Germany, Italy will release PPI nd trade balance, then followed by EU's mfg and services PMIs.

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AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1307
As yesterday's intra-day 'wild' swings in post-ECB New York session ended with euro's tanking to a near 6-week trough of 1.1290 due to safe-have usd buying on renewed U.S./China trade tension, suggesting recent decline would pressure price to 1.1260/70 after consolidation, oversold condition is expected to keep price well above 2018 16-month bottom (November) at 1.1216.

On the upside, only above 1.1355/60 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1381 but reckon 1.1411 res should cap upside and yield another fall next week.

Pay attention to release of key Germany's Ifo business climate n current conditions indexes, if both reading come out weaker than street forecasts, then expect another round of euro bashing to take place.

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AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1413
Friday's impressive rally from 1.1298 (AUS) to as high as 1.1419 near New York close due to usd's broad-based weakness on news of an end of recent U.S. govt. shutdown suggests recent decline from Jan's 11-week peak at 1.1570 has ended earlier at 1.1290 (Thursday) and upside bias remains for gain to 1.1455 after consolidation, overbought condition should cap price below 1.1494.

On the downside, only below 1.1455/60 signals temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1310/20 but 1.1290 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Monday:
Australia market holiday, U.S. Chicago national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.

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AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1427
Yesterday's resumption of upmove from last Thursday's 5-week low at 1.1290 to 1.1445 (New York) signals recent decline from Jan's 11-week peak at 1.1570 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for marginal gain, however, 'loss of momentum' is expected to cap price below res at 1.1491 and yield retreat later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, only below 1.1380/90 indicates temporary top is in place n risks stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1340/50 before prospect of another bounce.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand imports, exports, trade balance, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
Swiss trade balance imports, exports, France consumer confidence,.
U.S. redbook, CS home price, consumer confidence.

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