AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Jul 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1285
Euro's stronger-than-expected decline after intra-day penetration of last week's 1.1345 trough to as low as 1.1282 in New York due to broad-based strength is usd suggests recent upmove from 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1108 has made a top at 1.1412 last week (Tue) and further weakness to 1.1220/25 may be seen before prospect of rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1345 signals euro's pullback has ended, then price may head back to 1.1383/93.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with retail sales, then France's budget balance n EU's producer prices. Dutch central bank president Klaas Knot and Lithuanian central bank governor Vitas Vasiliauskas, both ECB members will speak in Vilnius. They will also speak at a joint press conference at 08:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jul 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1292
Euro's decline from last Tuesday's 3-month high of 1.1412 to an 11-day low at 1.1276 yesterday suggests recent upmove from 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1108 (May) has made a top and as long as 1.1345 (last week's high, now res) holds, stronger correction towards 1.1221 (61.8% r of 1.1108-1.1412) is envisaged before prospect of rebound due to loss of downward momentum.

Only a firm break above Tuesday's 1.1321 high would be the first signal low has been made, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement of said fall to 1.1345, break, 1.1355/60 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia AIG services index, trade balance, imports, exports, Japan services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, trade balance, initial jobless claims, Markit services PMI, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports.

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AceTraderFx Jul 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1287
Despite euro's resumption of decline from Jun's 3-month peak at 1.1412 to correct medium-term upmove to a 12-day trough of 1.1269 (Europe) yesterday, subsequent sideways swings in New York session would bring consolidation before one more fall, 'loss of downward momentum' should keep price above 1.1220/25 and bring strong retracement of aforesaid fall.

A daily close above 1.1321 would be the 1st signal low has been formed, then stronger gain to 1.1345 would follow, break would head back to 1.1370/80.

Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty light with EU's retails sales being the only data due out n trading may die down in European afternoon due to U.S. market holiday. We have ECB Chief Economist Lane speaking at a conference in Frankfurt at 07:00GMT and then ECB Vice President de Guindos giving a keynote address an an international conference in Lisbon at 9:15GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jul 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1280
Despite yesterday's narrow move following early decline from Jun's 3-month peak at 1.1412 to a 12-day low at 1.1269, outlook remains mildly bearish for marginal weakness, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1221/25 and bring a stronger retracement of said fall.

A daily close above 1.1321 res would signal low is in place, stronger gain to 1.1345, then later 1.1370/80 would be seen.

On the data front, Germany will release industrial orders, then France's current account, trade balance, import n exports.
ECB Vice President de Guindos will speak at a conference in Madrid at 08:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jul 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1224
Euro's intra-day firm break of last Wednesday's 1.1269 low to a 2-week trough of 1.1208 after stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls report in New York on Friday suggests early correction from May's 22-month bottom at 1.1108 has ended earlier at 1.1412 (June high) and downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.1182 but 1.1155/60 would hold today.

On the upside, only above 1.1269 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.1290/95 but res area at 1.1311/21 should cap upside.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with industrial production, imports n exports , trade balance and current account, then the EU will release Sentix professional investor confidence index. If the German data come out weaker then street forecast, one can expect renewed euro selling. The Eurogroup will meet in Brussels later today n ECB President Draghi and ECB Executive Board member Coeure will participate in the meeting.

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AceTraderFx Jul 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT


EUR/USD - 1.1215
Euro's re-test of Fri's post-NFP 2-week trough of 1.1208 in New York after initial recovery to 1.1234 (Europe) suggests recent decline from Jun's peak at 1.1412 would head to next daily chart objective at 1.1182, however, loss of downward momentum should limit weakness to 1.1150/55 and risk has increased for a correction to take place ahead of Fed chief J. Powell's 2-day testimony before the Congress starting tomorrow.

Only a daily close above 1.1234 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement twd 1.1269 but 1.1287/91 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Australia NAB business conditions, business confidence, Swiss unemployment rate, Italy retail sales.
Canada housing starts, building permits, U.S. business optimism, redbook retail sales and JOLTS job openings.

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AceTraderFx Jul 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1203
Although yesterday's resumption of recent decline to a near 3-week low at 1.1194 suggests early correction from May's 22-month bottom at 1.1108 has ended at 1.1412 (Jun high), subsequent recovery to 1.1214 would bring consolidation before another fall, loss of downward momentum would keep price well above 1.1108.

A daily close above 1.1234 (dovish comments by Fed's J. Powell later today perhaps !) signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracemnent to 1.1265/70, then 1.1295.

On the data front, we have France's industrial production and then Italy's industrial output.

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AceTraderFx Jul 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1251
Despite euro's resumption of recent decline from Jun's 3-month peak of 1.1412 to a near 3-week trough of 1.1194 on Tue, yesterday's rally to 1.1263 in New York due to usd's broad-based selloff following dovish Fed chair J. Powell's testimony suggests said fall has made a low and stronger retracement of this move to 1.1321/31 is envisaged after consolidation.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1208 signals correction is over and risks weakness towards daily chart objective at 1.1182 later.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with final CPI, HICP followed by France's CPI. ECB board member will give a lecture at the SAFE Poilicy Center in Frankfurt at 10:15GMT. Pat attention to release of minutes of ECB's June meeting at 11:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jul 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1260
Although euro's rally from Wednesday's near 3-week trough at 1.1194 to 1.1285 yesterday suggests recent decline from 1.1412 (June's top) has made a low, subsequent retreat due to broad-based USD's rebound following upbeat U.S. inflation data and rising treasury yields suggests sideways swings are in store, as long as 1.1208 holds, further headway to 1.1311/21 is envisaged.

Only a daily close below 1.1208 indicates correction over, then price will be en route to 1.1182 and 1.1108 next week.

On the economic data front, we have Germany's wholesale price index and then EU's industrial production.

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AceTraderFx Jul 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1271
Friday's rebound from 1.1239 suggests pullback from 1.1285 (Thursday high) has ended and the upmove from Tuesday's near 3-week trough at 1.1194 would head to 1.1311/21 after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum is expected to cap euro below 1.1345 (previous sup, now res) and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1234/39 dampens bullish bias on the single currency and may risk stronger retracement of said upmove towards 1.1208 before prospect of recovery.

Data to be released today:
Japan market holiday, UK Rightmove house prices, China retail sales, industrial production, GDP, Swiss PPI and U.S. NY manufacturing index on Monday.

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