AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Jul 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1256
Although last week's rally from 1.1194 to 1.1285 (Thursday) signals recent decline has made a temporary low there, subsequent retreat to 1.1239 on Friday, then rebound to 1.1284 in Europe yesterday and weakness to 1.1254 in New York after upbeat U.S. data indicates further choppy sideways swings may continue before said upmove heads to 1.1311/21.

Only a daily close below 1.1239 risks weakness to 1.1208/12 and possibly re-test of 1.1194.

On the data front, Italy will kick off with trade balance, the Germany's ZEW eco. sentiment n current conditions, Italy's final CPI and followed by EU's trade balance n ZEW eco. sentiment. ECB member Villrroy will speak at financial conference in Paris at 07:00GMT where Fed chief J. Powell will also speak later at 17:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jul 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1256
Although last week's rally from 1.1194 to 1.1285 (Thursday) signals recent decline has made a temporary low there, subsequent retreat to 1.1239 on Friday, then rebound to 1.1284 in Europe yesterday and weakness to 1.1254 in New York after upbeat U.S. data indicates further choppy sideways swings may continue before said upmove heads to 1.1311/21.

Only a daily close below 1.1239 risks weakness to 1.1208/12 and possibly re-test of 1.1194.

Data to be released today:
Australia leading index, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, UK DCLG house price index, CPI, RPI, PPI output, PPI input, EU CPI, core CPI, construction output.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, housing starts, building permits, Fed's Beige Book and Canada CPI, core CPI.

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AceTraderFx Jul 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1234
Although euro's decline from last week's high at 1.1285 to 1.1201 (Europe) yesterday's suggests early correction from July's low at 1.1194 has ended there, subsequent bounce to 1.1233 due to usd's broad-based weakness caused by falling U.S. yields, then intra-day break of said Wednesday's high in Asia suggests choppy trading above 1.1194 would continue.

Above 1.1254 would yield another rise towards 1.1285 whilst below 1.1201 would re-test 1.1194, then 1.1182, however, loss of downward momentum should keep euro above 1.1150.
There is no eco. data from the euro area counties, however, today is the second of the 2-day meeting of the G7 FinMIns n central bank Governors in Chantilly, France where ECB Preisent Draghi and board member Coeure will particpate in the meeting.

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AceTraderFx Jul 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1260
Despite euro's intra-day rebound from 1.1206 on Thursday and then jump to 1.1280 after dovish comments by New York Fed's Williams, intra-day brief drop from 1.1281 to 1.1241 following official statement by New York Fed on Williams' comments suggests further price gyrations inside recent 1.1285-1.1201 broad range may continue.

Below 1.1241 would pressure price back towards 1.1201 but below July's 1.1194 bottom needed to extend recent decline towards projected downside target at 1.1150 next week whilst above 1.1285 would yield stronger correction to 1.1311/21.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan national CPI, core national CPI.
Germany PPI, EU current account, UK PSNB, PSNCR.
Canada retail sales and U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment.

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AceTraderFx Jul 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1218
Despite euro's 1-week long daily choppy trading from July's 1.1194 low to 1.1285, Friday's intra-day sharp fall from 1.1281 (AUS) to 1.1204 in New York due to renewed usd's strength suggests re-test of said sup would be seen after consolidation, break there would extend decline from June's 1.1412 peak to 1.1182, loss of momentum is likely to keep price above projected sup at 1.1150.

On the upside, only above 1.1285 'prolongs' broad sideways swings and risks stronger correction of said fall to 1.1311/21 before prospect of retreat later this week.

No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries today but we have Germany's Bundesbank monthly report scheduled to be released at 10:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jul 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1204
Despite moving narrowly in lackluster Monday session, intra-day weakness on broad-based usd's strength suggests re-test of July's 1.1194 low would be forthcoming soon, below would extend decline from June's high at 1.1412 towards projected target at 1.1150.

On the upside, only above 1.1239/44 'prolongs' choppy trading above 1.1194 and may risk another rise to 1.1281/85.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK CBI trends order, U.S. redbook, home price, existing home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and EU consumer confidence.

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AceTraderFx Jul 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1148
Yesterday's selloff to a 2-month low at 1.1146 (New York) after 2-week long daily sideways swings suggests euro would re-test 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1108 (May) after consolidation, a break there would send price heading towards next projected downside target at 1.1054 (dovish ECB on Thursday perhaps).

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1194 (previous sup, now res) signals temporary low is in place and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1225.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand import, trade balance, exports, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss ZEW survey expectation, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales.

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AceTraderFx Jul 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1149
Despite euro's brief break of previous 2019 low at 1.1108 (May) to a 2-year trough of 1.1102 after ECB's dovish hold, subsequent brief jump to 1.1187 due to active short covering in euro following ECB Draghi's comments in post-ECB press conference and then retreat to 1.1127 in New York afternoon suggests range trading is in store today, as long as 1.1187 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1100/02 needed to extend downtrend towards projected target at 1.1054 next week.

Only a daily close above 1.1187 confirms temporary bottom is in place and would yield stronger correction to 1.1225 and possibly towards 1.1285 later.

Ahead of release of key U.S. GDP and PCE data, Germany will release import and export prices, then France's consumer confidence and producer prices and Italy's business and consumer confidence.

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AceTraderFx Jul 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1132
Although euro's weakness to 1.1113 in New York on Fri due to renewed usd's strength following upbeat U.S. data suggests early correction from Thursday's 25-month trough at 1.1102 has ended the same day at 1.1187, intra-day yen-led recovery in Asia would bring further choppy sideways swings before prospect of resumption of downtrend towards projected downside target at 1.1054.

Only a daily close above 1.1187 signals temporary low has been made instead, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement towards 1.1225.

On the data front, economic calendar is very thin with Italy's PPI being the only data due out at 08:00GMT, therefore, fund flows will have great impact on intra-day price swings during European morning trading.

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AceTraderFx Jul 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1150
Euro's recent daily sideways swings following a brief but strong rebound from last Thursday's 2-year trough at 1.1102 to 1.1187 is likely to end later today due to anticipated Fed's rate cut and monetary policy statement. A downside break is the likely scenario and below 1.1100/02 would yield resumption of downtrend towards projected target at 1.1054.

Only a daily close above 1.1187 would risk stronger retracement towards 1.1225 before prospect of retreat later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Australia CPI, Japan consumer confidence index, housing starts, construction orders.
UK GfK consumer confidence, nationwide house price, Germany retail sales, unemployment change, unemployment rate, France CPI, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, GDP, EU HICP, core HICP, GDP, unemployment rate.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, employment wages, employment costs, Chicago PMI, Fed interest rate decision, and Canada GDP, producer prices.

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