AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0795
Euro's anticipated resumption of decline from last week's high at 1.1018 (Friday) to as low as 1.0783 yesterday's signals early upmove from April's 1-month trough at 1.0728 has ended there and downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, 'loss of downward momentum' should keep price above 1.0728 and yield rebound.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0886 signals low is finally made and may head back towards 1.0925 later.

On the data front, the euro area countries will release a slew of data, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for details.

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AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0850
Although euro's anticipated resumption of decline from last week's 1.1018 high (Friday) to as low as 1.0767 in New York yesterday suggests early strong rise from April's 1.0728 has ended, subsequent rebound on broad-based usd's weakness ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs report would bring sideways swings.

As long as 1.0857/63 holds, downside bias, below 1.0800 would yield another fall, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.0728. A daily close above 1.0863 would 'prolong' broad sideways swings and may risk stronger gain towards 1.0925, then 1.0960/70 next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan all household spending, Jibun Bank services PMI
UK GfK consumer confidence, market holiday, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada housing starts, building permits, employment change, unemployment rate, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

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AceTraderFx May 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0841
Although euro's rebound from last week's low at 1.0767 (Thursday) suggests early decline from May's 4-week peak at 1.1018 has made a temporary low, as price has retreated after climbing to 1.0875 in post-NFP New York on Friday, consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.0800 would yield re-test of 1.0767.

Only a daily close above 1.0875 would risk stronger retracement to 1.0925 but reckon 109.72 would cap upside.

Data to be released today :
New Zealand retail sales and Italy industrial output on Monday.

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AceTraderFx May 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0809
Euro's decline from 1.0875 (Friday) to 1.0801 in New York yesterday's suggests recovery from last week's low at 1.0767 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of this sup, break would extend early fall from May's 4-week peak at 1.1018 towards April's bottom at 1.0728 later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0850 prolongs choppy swings and risk re-test of 1.0875, however, reckon res at 1.0925 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
China PPI, CPI, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Canada leading index, and U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, redbook, Federal budget.

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AceTraderFx May 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0854
Although euro's recent decline from May's 1.118 high to as low as 1.0767 last week suggests early correction from April's 1.0728 bottom has ended, subsequent bounce to 1.0875 (Friday), then yesterday's intra-day rally to 1.0884 would bring further sideways swings before prospect of another fall.

As long as 1.0925 res holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.0827 would head back to 1.0785, then towards 1.0767. Only a daily close above said res risks stronger retracement to 1.0960/70 later this week.

On the data front, the only eco. data due out from the euro area countries is EU's Mar industrial production.
We have ECB Chief Economist Lane n Vice Precicent de Guindos speaking later today (please refer to our EI page for details).

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AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0823
Despite euro's 'erratic' rise from last week's trough at 1.0767 to 1.0896 in New York morning, intra-day selloff to 1.0812 due to broad-based usd's strength after Fed J. Powell rejected negative U.S. interest rates suggests correction has ended and downside bias remains for re-test of said sup after consolidation, break would extend fall from May's 1.1018 peak towards 1.0728 later.

On the upside, only above 1.0857 'prolongs' choppy sideways swings and may head back to 1.0875/85 but 1.0896 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan machine tool orders.
UK RICS housing price balance, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, France ILO unemployment rate, Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, Swiss producer/import price index, Italy trade balance.
U.S. import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, and Canada manufacturing sales.

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AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0802
Although eur's selloff from 1.0896 (Wednesday) to as low as 1.0776 in Europe yesterday suggests correction from last week's low at 1.0767 (Thursday) has ended, subsequent recovery in New York session due to short covering would bring sideways swings before another fall, below 1.0767 would encourage for weakness towards April's bottom at 1.0728 next week.

Only a daily close above 1.0824 'prolongs' recent choppy consolidation and may risk stronger gain to 1.0875/85.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Japan corporate goods price, China industrial output, retail sales.
Germany GDP, France CPI, CPI (EU-norm), Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI, CPI (EU-norm), EU employment change, GDP.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, industrial production, capacity utilization, JOLTS job openings, University of Michigan sentiment.

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AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 May 2020 03:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0821
Despite euro's fall from last week's high at 1.0896 (Wed) to 1.0776 on Thursday, subsequent bounce to 1.0850 suggests further volatile swings above May's 1.0767 bottom would continue.

As long as 1.0896 holds, downside bias remains for weakness towards May's 1.0767 low, break would extend early decline from 1.1018 towards 1.0728 (Apr low later this week).

Although there will be no economic data from the euro zone, we have German Buba monthly report due to release later today.

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AceTraderFx May 19: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0916
Euro's intra-day rally above last week's 1.0896 high in New York session due to risk-on trade following joint German-French announcement of a EU recovery fund to as high as 1.0926 suggests further 'gyrations' inside recent 1.1018-1.0767 broad range would continue.

As long as 1.0875/85 holds, upside bias remains, however, overbought condition should cap price at 1.0980/90. Below 1.0850 signals top is made and heads back to 1.0801/05 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand PPI, GDT price, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment employment change, average weekly earnings.
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU construction output, ZEW survey expectation,.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook and Canada new housing price index.

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AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0938
Euro's retreat from Tuesday's 2-week high of 1.0876 suggests further 'choppy' trading below May's 1.1018 peak would continue and consolidation with downside bias remain, below 1.0896 (last week's high, now sup) would yield stronger retracement of early erratic rise from 1.0767 to 1.0850 but sup 1.0801/05 should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 1.0976 aborts present consolidative scenario on euro and risk would shift to the upside for re-test of 1.1018 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand food price index, Japan machinery orders, Australia westpac leading index.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI inputs, RPI outputs, PPI core outputs, EU current account, HICP, core HICP, consumer confidence U.S. MBA mortgage application and Canada CPI, CPI BOC core, core CPI.

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