AceTraderFx Apr 28, 2014: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

28 Apr 2014 06:34GMT

GBP/USD - 1.6807.. Cable swung fm early loss to slight gain at European open. Despite falling in tandem with eur/usd initially at Asian open to 1.6777 (Reuters), short-covering quickly lifted the pound n early European birds were spotted buying sterling vs usd, eur & yen as w/end FT news of Pfizer's public offer for U.K. AstraZeneca came back to the forefront - just like when the news first broke last Tue (pushing cable fm 1.6785 to 1.6839).

Although cable has basically risen on this speculative news, reported heavy offers at 1.6835/45 need to be absorbed for the pound to make a new print on 2014 high. For now, trading fm long side is the way to go with bids now touted at 1.6800-1.6790 n more below with stops below 1.6760.



28 Apr 2014 02:51GMT
GBP/USD - 1.6790.. Cable pares intra-day loss on short covering ahead of Tokyo lunch after intra-day euro-led retreat fm 1.6807 (NZ) to 1.6777 (Reuters) after tripping stops below Fri's low at 1.6790. Traders reported selling by st specs at Asian open on stop hunting as despite Fri's brief jump to session high of 1.6834 after stronger-than-expected U.K. retail sales, report of lumpy offers at 1.6835/40 spooked st buyers n the pound later ratcheted lower to 1.6795 in NY afternoon. The lack of follow-though selling below 1.6790 suggests intra-day selling is done as traders are aware of near term bids abv last week low at 1.6762.

Range trading with mild upside bias is seen until European open n w/end FT news of U.S. phaurmaceutical giant Pfizer could make a public bid to purchase U.K. durgmaker AstraZeneca, buying cable on dips is preferred. No major U.K. data is due out today although we have Lloyds Bank Business Confidence Barometer for Apr at 08:30GMT, the index hit an all-time high of 66 in Feb but retreated to 44 in Mar. Traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of release of Tue's key U.K. preliminary Q1 GDP.

 

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AceTraderFx May 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

02 May 2014 06:45GMT

GBP/USD - 1.6887.. Another piece of breaking news which may 'trigger' another bout of st speculative buying of cable.
U.K. drug maker AstraZeneca says board will review Pfizer offer. A spokeswoman for the company said today AstraZeneca board will be reviewing a sweetened takeover offer fm Pfizer but the company has no further comment at this stage.

Sterling was the 'star currency' in y'day's holiday-thinned trading. Despite initial quiet start due to closure of many major centres for Labour Day holiday, the pound sprang to life at European open n jumped to a near 5-year peak of 1.6921 after U.K. Apr manufacturing PMI beat forecast, however, the bullish euphoria quickly faded when long liquidation emerged, knocking the pound to 1.6876 in NY morning.
Cable has moved narrowly with a soft bias as Asian traders are on the sideline ahead of a slew of eco. data in Europe. We have several eurozone manufacturing PMIs ahead of the release of U.K. Apr construction PMI at 08:30GMT (street forecast is calling for 62.5 vs prev. reading at 62.5) n not to mention the world's most important data, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data at 12:30GMT. Initial bids are noted at 1.6870-60 with some stops touted below 1.6850, on the upside, offers are reported at 1.6910/20 n more abv, suggesting near term range trading wud continue but buying cable on dips is till the preferred strategy after clocking up 6 consecutive days of winning streak on Thur.

 

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AceTraderFx May 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

08 May 2014 06:18GMT
GBP/USD - 1.6963.. What goes down must rebound.
Despite initial brief break of Wed's low at 1.6951 due to long liquidation of sterling vs usd, yen & eur in Asian morning, the pound quickly rebounded after a quick dip to intra-day low at 1.6944 n as price has continued to ratchet higher at European open, sterling is expected to outperform euro in European morning.

Initial offers at 1.6960 have been absorbed n more are noted at 1.6980/85, break there wud give cable the ticket to 1.7000 lvl where a mixture of selling interest n stops is touted to be just abv there. Bids have been raised to 1.6955-50 n more below with stops reported below 1.6920, so trading the pound fm long side is the way to go ahead of the MPC rate announcement at 11:00GMT.

08 May 2014 02:44GMT

GBP/USD - 1.6948.. The British pound remains under pressure in Asia morning as renewed cross unwinding in sterling vs eur & yen knocked price below y'day's low at 1.6951 (NY), suggesting sterling bulls have to be a tad more patient b4 cable re-tests Tue's near 5-year peak at 1.6996.

Although some stops were tripped below 1.6950 on intra-day weakness, more buying interest is touted at 1.6940-20 area, therefore, position traders shud make use of current minor retracement to establish long positions.
On the downside, more stops are reported below 1.6900 whilst offers are noted at 1.6970 n more at 1.6980/85 with a mixture of selling interest n stops near 1.7000.

No UK eco. data is due out today but market is paying close attention to outcome of the BoE MPC policy meeting. Although BoE is expected to stand pat on its monetary policy (rates & QE programme), recent upgrades on U.K. economic growth by OECD, European Commission & U.K. bodies plus rising U.K. house prices are heightening market speculation of an earlier start of the tightening cycle, so the pound shud be supported on dips, however, we have to wait until next Wed for the release of today's MPC minutes.

 

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AceTraderFx May 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

15 May 2014 02:56GMT

GBP/USD - 1.6772
Cable languishes near a 4-week low of 1.6753 hit yesterday. Sterling came under very heavy broad-based selling after U.K. jobs data came in below market consensus, intra-day decline accelerated when BoE Governor Mark Carney disappointed sterling bulls by brushing off market expectation of bringing forward U.K. rate hike any time soon.
As market had already set the bar very high for hawkish comments from Carney, his mildly dovish tone at the BoE Inflation Report press conference sent the pound tumbling, cable tanked to 1.6759 after his remarks and despite a brief short-covering bounce to 1.6812, renewed selling pressured price to session low of 1.6753 in NY morning.

Traders reported 'heavy' volume in yesterday's session, suggesting long liquidation was the theme on Wed n last Fri CFTC report showed there are still a lot of stale-long positions out there as cable has been a 'crowded' trade in recent weeks, so selling on intra-day recovery is the way to go.
Initial offers are noted at 1.6780/90 n more at 1.6800/10 with some stops reported abv 1.6820. On the downside, a mixture of bids n stops is touted at 1.6750/45. No U.K. economic data is due out today n tomorrow, so stop hunting will be the near term favourite pastime activities of the sterling bears.

 

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AceTraderFx Jul 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Jul 2014 08:30GMT

GBP/USD - .. U.K. services PMI for June came in at 57.7, below street forecast of 58.3 (previous reading was 58.6), cable slipped after the data to 1.7134 after tripping light stops below 1.7140.

Current weakness suggests a long-overdue correction of recent strong uptrend has taken place, stops below 1.7130 are now in focus, however, as mentioned in previous, fairly large stops are reported below 1.7095, so until the latter stop lvl is tripped, do not get overly bearish on the pound. For now, offers have been lowered to 1.7150/60 n more above with stops above yesterday's fresh 5-1/2 year peak at 1.7180.


Breaking news from Reuters earlier, Bank of England's Deputy Gov Sir Jon Cunliffe says biggest risk to the UK economy is house prices rising faster than income; we don't forecast or set out when interest rates will next change, we make decision on basis of information coming in; we have said we are looking at the amount of spare capacity when deciding on monetary tightening; when interest rates start to go up, the pace is going to be gentler than in past and it will be to a lower level.

Jon Cunliffe will deliver a speech at the International Festival for Business conference at 11:00GMT, Liverpool today.

 

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AceTraderFx Jul 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

23 Jul 2014 08:43GMT

GBP/USD - .... Despite a brief spike up to 1.7095 after the release of BoE minutes, the British pound swiftly pared its gains n dropped to 1.7063 as the minutes were deemed as less hawkish than expected. BoE minutes showed that the MPC committee is still looking at the pros n cons for an early rate rise n that they were worried about hurting the country's economic recovery.

Offers are now seen at 1.7080/90 n more above at 1.7100/05 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.7040/45, suggesting selling cable on intra-day recovery is still favored.

BoE releases its minutes, Quote:
'MPC have pre-set view on timing of a rate rise, will depend on data;
some MPC members feel decision on rate rise had become more balanced over past few months than earlier in the year;
growth generally looking more assured but tentative indications of slight slowdown forecast for H2;
one view was that risk of small rate rise derailing economy had receded, cud help assess response of economy;
size of labor market slack uncertain so pace at which it is used may be more relevant;
other view was that unexpected rate rise cud have outsize impact as global growth grows;
little indication of inflationary pressures building;
different MPC members put different weights on these interpretations;
expect Q2 GDP growth of 0.9% b4 slowing modestly in Q3 n Q4;
response of mkts to geopolitical events n economic risks surprisingly low.'

 

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AceTraderFx Jul 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views GBP/USD

25 Jul 2014 02:43GMT

GBP/USD - ... Cable gains respite in subdued Asian trading after tanking to a 4-week trough of 1.6967 on Thur as a tepid 0.1% m/m growth in Jun retails sales (vs forecast of 03% increase) triggered broad-based selling of sterling vs usd n eur.

As retail sales account for just under 6% of U.K. economic output, market is keenly awaiting the release of the 1st reading of Britain's Q2 GDP. Street forecast is looking for a q/q growth of 0.8% & an annual expansion of 3.1%. If actual quarterly figure disappoints, then recent expectation of the start of a rate hike near year-end wud be put in the back burner. If the reading is higher than forecast, then one can expect a short-covering rally back twd 1.7085/95.

Until then, offers are noted at 1.7000/10 n more abv, initial bids are reported at 1.6970-60 with more stops touted below 1.6950.

25 Jul 2014 02:21GMT

U.K. Telegraph :
The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2014 from 3.7% to 3.4% in the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, warning that the advanced economies are still being weighed on by high levels of debt.

Ultra-low interest rates around the world are fuelling financial bubbles n pushing investors into overvalued assets, the IMF has warned in a marked shift of policy.

Olivier Blanchard, the IMF?s chief economist, said the fund is now watching financial markets "like a hawk" but said the world economy is still too fragile to withstand the introduction of tighter monetary policy. "The first line of defence should be macro-prudential tools; slowing down the housing market for example. The recovery is not very strong and really needs to be nurtured," he said. The report also said "Global growth could be weaker for longer, monetary policy should thus remain accommodative in all major advanced economies."


Friday will see the release of Japan National CPI, Tokyo CPI, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Ifo current conditions, expectations, business climate, Italy unemployment, UK GDP and U.S. durable goods on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 4: Daily Market Moving New and Views GBP/USD

Daily Market Moving New and Views

04 Aug 2014 03:20GMT

GBP/USD - ... For those news browsers in quiet Asian session, U.K. Telegraph reported Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London is to back a report that claims leaving the EU would be better than staying if PM David Cameron fails to negotiate reforms.

The report estimates that the UK leaving the EU wud be far fm catastrophic for the capital, n better than staying if Britain's position in the organisation is not renegotiated.

The Mayor is on Wed set to outline an eight-point plan for reform of the EU, setting out the way in which the UK should renegotiate its place in the union. He will outline the points in a speech at Bloomberg's London offices, focusing on the UK's future relationship with Europe. At next May's general election, Europe is likely to be a crucial battle ground.

Earlier the pound languishes near Fri's fresh 6-week low of 1.6812 in subdued Asian trading on Mon. Despite staging a brief short-covering rebound to 1.6862 after U.S. Jul payrolls' increase was below market forecast n unemployment increased by 0.1%, sellers quickly emerged n cable later ratcheted lower back to 1.6818 near NY close.

The narrow movement in Asia is expected to continue until release of U.K. Jun construction PMI. Cable rec'd renewed bashing on Fri after U.K. mfg PMI came in well below the lowest forecast n fell to 55.4 fm 57.2 in June (its lowest level since July 2013). If today's construction PMI is below market consensus, then expect another round of selling to emerge. Even if the reading beats forecast, sterling bears will continue to sell the pound on intra-day rally. Bids are noted at 1.6815/05 with stops reported below 1.6800, on the upside, offers are tipped at 1.6850/60 n more abv with stops touted above 1.6990/95.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

11 Aug 2014 03:33GMT

GBP/USD - ... Sterling's spectacular ascent in the 1st half of the year had generated huge profit to those who jumped on the bandwagon, however, the sharp rise in the value of the pound has a negative impact to the U.K. trade balance.

Reuters reported on Fri sagging exports pushed Britain's trade deficit to a 5-month high in Jun, suggesting a more balanced economic recovery still looks a way off, although the construction industry recovered from a dip in May.

Exports of U.K. goods to countries outside the EU fell to their lowest level since Sep 2011, coinciding with the pound hitting a near six-year high against the dlr. Britain's total goods trade deficit grew to 9.4 bln pounds in Jun, its highest level since Jan, fm 9.2 bln pounds in May. The data dampened hopes that exports will soon make a greater contribution to U.K.'s consumption-led economic recovery, but separate construction data n a recruitment survey still pointed to strong domestic demand.

"The (trade) problem is largely out of the U.K.'s hands who pointed to weak growth in the euro zone - Britain's biggest export market, said Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club. He added "This is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future. Sterling rose further in July while the euro zone economy looks set for little or no growth in Q2."Britain's economy grew 0.8% in the 2nd quarter, according to an early estimate. . By contrast, The Bank of England will release updated economic forecasts on Wed - expects that pace of growth to slow slightly later this year.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

GBP/USD - .... Although Britons are finding EU goods & services cheaper this month as compared to a year ago when they take their vacation in Europe in this holiday Aug month after eur/gbp cross slid to a near 2-year low of 0.7874 in Jul, the flip side of this is the widening of Britain's trade gap esp vs the EU.

The U.K. Telegraph reported why the eurozone's woes could hurt Britain. Growth in EU ground to a halt in the 2nd quarter of the year. This was mostly due to weaker-than-expected figures from the eurozone's economic heavyweights.
Germany's economy shrank by 0.2% in the quarter, while France's flatlined. At the same time, the bloc is on the cusp of a deflationary spiral.
Prices are falling in Portugal, Greece n Spain, while Italy isn't far behind.

Because the EU is still Britain's single biggest overseas market, so an economic standstill in the eurozone will hit UK exports hard.
MPC member David Miles summed it up on Thur when he said British exports to the EU are "dead in the water".

Britain's overseas investments are also concentrated in the EU, so poor performing EU firms will hit the UK's return on foreign investment hard, too. Both of these factors mean further pain for the U.K.?s current account deficit, which already stands near a record high at 4.4% of GDP.