AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

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AceTraderFx May 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.53
Despite the greenback's fall to 111.05 in post-FOMC trading, subsequent rally to 111.61 in New York afternoon on Powell's usd supportive comments and intra-day break of this resistance suggests decline from April's 4-month peak at 112.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 111.90, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 112.05/10 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 111.05 would revive bearishness for weakness to 110.85, then 110.53 before prospect of a much-needed correction.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit construction PMI, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, and U.S. initial jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, ISM New York index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport.

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AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.49
Despite dollar's resumption of decline from Apr's 4-month high at 112.39 to a 2-1/2 week low at 111.05 Wed, subsequent rally to 111.61 in post-FOMC, then 111.66 yesterday suggests pullback has ended and further gain towards 112.10/17 would be seen but 112.39 should hold on first testing.

On the downside, only below 111.05 would risk weakness towards 110.85, break, 110.52/53 later.

Data to be released on Friday:
Swiss consumer confidence, CPI, UK Markit services PMI, EU HICP, producer prices.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

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AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.74
Dollar's intra-day gap-down open to 110.54 in New Zealand following U.S. President Trump's tweet to threaten more trade tariffs on China on Sunday, and then lower 110.28 in Asia suggests recent decline from Apr's 4-month peak at 112.39 has once again resumed, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall towards 110.00/10 later.

On the upside, only above 111.05 would indicate temporary low made and risk retracement towards 111.35/37.

Data to be released later:
UK market holiday, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI and EU Markit services PMI, Sentix index, retail sales on Monday.

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AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.65
Although dollar has rebounded after yesterday's gap-down open and then lower to a 5-week bottom at 110.28 in Asian morning, as 110.95 (New York) has capped recovery, consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of 110.28, break would extend recent decline from Apr's 4-month peak at 112.39 towards 110.00 but 109.71 should hold.

On the upside, only above 111.05 would indicate temporary low made and risk retracement towards 111.35/37.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light with Redbook sales n JOLTS job openings being the only data due out. We have Fed Vice Chair Quarles speaking at Yale University 15:35GMT but the topic is on financial regulation.

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AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.15
Dollar's intra-day firm break below yesterday's 110.17 low to a fresh 5-week bottom of 109.91 in Asian morning on selloff in Nikkei suggests recent decline from April's 4-month peak at 112.39 remains in progress, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall to 109.71 (March low) later, break, 109.55/60.

On the upside, only above 110.60 would indicate temporary low made instead and risk stronger retracement towards 110.85/95.

Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty thin with Germn industrial output being the only data due out. ECB's Draghi wil have dialogue with a group of youth at a student award event in FFT, so one can expect him to speak on something totally unrelated to ECB's monetary policy right.

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AceTraderFx May 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.67
Dollar's initial break of yesterday's low at 109.91 to a fresh 5-week low at 109.84 at Asian open on Trump's comments, and then present fall after remarks from China Commerce Ministry suggests decline from Apr's 4-month peak at 112.39 has resumed and further weakness towards 109.15/25 would be seen but loss of momentum should keep price above 108.73.

On the upside, only above 110.28 would indicate temporary low made, risk gain towards 110.60/70.

Data to be released on Thursday :
UK RICS housing price balance, U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, PPI, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada new housing price index, trade balance, exports, imports.

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AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.67
Although dollar's intra-day rally from 109.15 in Australia to 109.77 in Europe suggests recent decline from April's 4-month peak at 112.39 has made a temporary low at yesterday's 13-week bottom of 109.02 and stronger retracement towards 110.00/05 would be seen before prospect of retreat.

Only above 110.28/32 would risk gain towards 110.60 while below 109.02 would risk another fall to 108.73, then 108.50.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (see EI for details) and we have S.F. Fed President Williams speaking at a conference in Zurich at 07:15GMT, then Kansas City Fed's George will speaking at 16:45GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.49
Despite dollar's resumption of recent decline from Apr's 4-month peak at 112.39 to a 3-month low of 109.02 on Mon, yesterday's strong rebound to 109.77 suggests temporary low is in place and range trading would be seen before prospect of another fall but reckon 108.50 should hold, yield rebound.

On the upside, above 109.77 would extend marginal gain to 110.00/05 but 110.28/32 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Germany GDP, France CPI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, EU employment, GDP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, and Canada CPI.

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AceTraderFx May 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.47
Despite dollar's fall from 109.70 in Europe to 109.16 (New York) yesterday, subsequent strong rebound to 109.68 suggests choppy trading above Monday's 3-month low at 109.02 would continue, intra-day retreat would bring range trading before prospect of another rise but 110.05 should remain intact and yield another decline.

Only below 109.16 would risk re-test of 109.02, break may yield marginal weakness towards 108.84 before rebound.

U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, building permits, housing starts, Philly Fed survey all due out at 12:30GMT, so one can expected market reaction after this data dump. Also, pay attention to speeches by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Fed Governor Brainard near New York mid-day.

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AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.67
Despite dollar's strong rebound from Mon's 3-month trough of 109.02 to 110.03 in Asian morning today, subsequent fall to 109.55 at European open on renewed U.S.-China trade tension suggests recovery has ended and price would head to 109.15/16 after range trading.

On the upside, only a daily close above 110.05 would risk gain towards 110.28/32, then possibly 110.60/70.

On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (please see our EI page for details). Also we have a number of Fed officials speaking in New York session later (see EI page for details).

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