AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

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AceTraderFx Nov 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.46
Although dollar's break of Nov's previous high at 109.48 to near-6-month top at 109.60 in New York yesterday suggests upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 has resumed, intra-day retreat on renewed U.S.-China trade concern would bring consolidation before price heads to 109.90/93 but 110.30/40 should hold due to loss momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.11 (Wed European low) would indicate temporary top made and risk weakness toward 108.88/90, break, 108.43/48.

U.S. markets will be closed today for Thanksgiving holiday, hence no data will be out today.

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AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.50
Despite dollar's retreat from Wednesday's near 6-month high at 109.60 in New York, yesterday's rebound from 109.34 (AUS) to 109.59 in Asia today suggests correction has ended and upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 would resume and head towards 109.93 after consolidation but 110.20/30 should hold due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.07/11 would indicate temporary top made, risk weakness to 108.83/88.

Data out later :
UK GfK consumer confidence, Germany retail sales, unemployment change, unemployment rate, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, GDP, EU HICP, core HICP, unemployment rate, and Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance.

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AceTraderFx Dec 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.63
Dollar's intra-day break of Fri's top at 109.66 to a fresh near 6-month high of 109.72 in Asia suggests upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 has resumed, subsequent retreat would yield consolidation before prospect of another rise to 109.90/93 but 110.35/37 should cap upside due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.34 signals temporary top made and risks weakness to 109.11, break, 108.88.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT. Street forecast is for an uptick to 49.4 from previous reading of 48.3.

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AceTraderFx Dec 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.09
Dollar's retreat from a 6-month high at 109.72 to 108.93 in New York yesterday suggests upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top there, subsequent rebound would bring choppy trading before prospect of another fall, below 108.88/93 would extend to 108.48 but 108.25 should hold today due to oversold condition.

On the upside, only above 109.41 signals correction has ended and may risk re-test of 109.72.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Markit construction PMI, Australia current account, RBA interest rate decision, Swiss CPI, France budget balance, EU producer prices.
U.S. redbook, ISM New York index.

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AceTraderFx Dec 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.48
Despite dollar's erratic rise from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 6-month high of 109.72 Mon, subsequent selloff to 108.49 in New York yesterday, then lower today on U.S.-China trade concerns suggests weakness to 108.25/29 would be seen after consolidation but 107.90 may hold due to loss of downward momentum.

On the upside, only above 108.93 signals correction over and risks gain to 109.20, break, 109.41.

There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but pay particular attention to ADP employment at 13:15GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT . Street forecasts are 140k and 54.5 vs previous readings of 125k and 54.7 respectively.

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AceTraderFx Dec 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.90
Despite dollar's retreat to 108.44 in Asia yesterday, subsequent rebound to 108.96 in New York suggests recent decline from Mon's 6-month peak at 119.72 has made a temporary low and range trading would be seen before prospect of another fall, below 108.44 would extend to 108.10/20 but Nov's 107.90 bottom should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 109.20 would risk stronger gain to 109.41, break, 109.60/70.

Pay attention to U.S. jobless claims (13:30GMT) and factory orders (15:00GMT). Street forecasts are 215k and 0.3% vs previous readings of 213k and -0.6% respectively.

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AceTraderFx Dec 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.62
Despite dollar's rebound from Wed's trough at 108.44 to 108.99 yesterday, subsequent retreat to 108.61 today suggests correction has ended and decline from Mon's 6-month high at 109.72 would resume and extend to 108.25/29, however, loss of momentum should keep price above 107.90.

On the upside, only above 108.99 would risk gain to 109.20, break, 109.41 later.

T.G.I.F. for Asian traders but Euroepan n N. American players are bracing themselves for release of U.S. non-farm payrolls, average earnings, unemployment at 13:00GMT, then University of Michigan consumer confidence, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales at 15:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Dec 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.53
Dollar's intra-day sideways move after retreat from 108.91 to 108.53 in New York last Fri due to falling US yields suggests correction from Wed's trough at 108.44 has ended at 108.99 Thur and re-test of said support is seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from Dec's high at 109.72 to 108.25/29 but 107.90 should hold due to loss of momentum.

On the upside, only above 108.91/99 signals temporary low made and risks gain to 109.20, break, 109.41.

Data to be released later:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index and Canada leading index, housing starts, building permits.

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AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.64
Although dollar has recovered after yesterday's re-test of last Wed's low at 108.44 and consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen, however, reckon 108.91/99 would remain intact and yield prospect of another decline, below 108.44 would extend fall from Dec's 6-month 109.72 high towards 108.25, then 107.90 (Nov bottom).

On the upside, only above 108.99 would risk stronger retracement to 109.20, break, 109.41/45.

In the absence of major economic data from the U.S. today, investors are looking for more clarity on whether U.S. would impose the increased tariffs on Chinese goods, starting Dec. 15 or if the two countries can agree on a limited trade deal.

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AceTraderFx Dec 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.71
Although dollar's choppy swings following fall from Dec's 6-month high at 109.72 to 108.44 last Wednesday would continue, as said move signals upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top there and reckon resistance at 108.99 would hold and yield another decline, below 108.44 would extend decline to 108.25, then 107.90.

On the upside, only above 108.99 suggests pullback over and risks stronger gain to 109.20, break, 109.41 later.

Today's focus is on the Federal Reserve's rate decision at 19:00GMT. Although it is widely expected that the central bank will keep its rate unchanged at 1.75%, one should pay attention to Chairman Powell's press conference at 19:30GMT and look for hints on whether any more rate cuts are expected or not.

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