AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 12: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.80
Dollar's rally from 105.94 in New York yesterday and then break of previous August's 106.47 high to 106.68 on renewed usd's strength, then 106.81 today confirms upmove from July's 4-1/2 month bottom at 104.19 has once again resumed and further headway to 107.28/36 would be seen after consolidation, but 107.53 should hold due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 106.44/45 would risk stronger retracement to 106.00/05.

There is a slew of economic data to be released from the U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to CPI mm and yy at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts are 0.3% and 0.8% vs previous readings of 0.6% and 0.6% respectively.

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[ForexTus]

Interesting analysis, thanks for posting

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 13: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.63
Despite dollar's resumption of upmove from July's 4-1/2 month low at 104.19 to a near 3-week high at 107.01 in New York yesterday, intra-day retreat suggests temporary top is in place and stronger retracement to 106.45/47 would be seen before prospect of another rise, above 107.01
would extend to 107.28 but 107.53 should hold.

On the downside, only below 106.19/23 would risk weakness to 105.94, break, 105.69/73.

There is a slew of U.S. data to be released but one should pay particular attention to jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Street forecast is 1,120k, down from previous reading of 1,186k.

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[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 14: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.78
Despite dollar's resumption of upmove from July's 4-1/2 month trough at 104.19 to a near 3-week high at 107.04 in New York yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests temporary top possibly made and choppy sideways swings would be seen before heading to 107.48/53, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 107.78 today.

On the downside, only below 106.47/57 would risk stronger retracement to 106.19/23.

There is a slew of data to be released from the U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to U.S. retail sales and retail sales ex-autos at 12:30GMT.
Street forecasts are 1.9% and 1.3% vs previous readings of 7.5% and 7.3% respectively.

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[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 17: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.47
Despite dollar's resumption of upmove from July's 4-1/2 month trough at 104.19 to a near 3-week peak at 107.04 last Thursday, Friday's selloff to 106.44 in New York, then 106.41 today suggests temporary top is in place and stronger retracement to 106.19/24 would be seen before prospect of another rise, however, reckon 107.28 should hold and yield retreat.

On the downside, below 105.94 would risk weakness to 105.71, then 105.31/33.

Data to be released later:
Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization.
UK Rightmove house .
U.S. NY Fed manufacturing, NAHB housing index on Monday.

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[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 19: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.41
Dollar's resumption of decline from last Thursday's 107.04 peak to a 2-week low at 105.11 at Asian open today suggests early correction from July's 4-1/2 month trough at 104.19 has possibly ended and subsequent rebound would bring choppy sideways swings before heading to 104.73/78.

On the upside, only above 105.95 would risk gain to 106.06, then 106.30/40.

Data to be released later :
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index, EU current account, HICP, core HICP, Canada CPI, core CPI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, FOMC meeting minutes.

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[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 20: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.03
Despite dollar's selloff from last Thursday's near 3-week high at 107.04 to a 2-week bottom at 105.11, subsequent strong rebound on usd's broad-based rally after release of FOMC minutes to 106.21 in Asia today suggests a temporary low has been made and further gain to 106.44/47 would be seen after consolidation but 106.65 may hold.

On the downside, only below 105.60 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 105.29.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany producer prices, Swiss trade balance, industrial production, exports, imports, EU construction output.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, leading index change, and Canada ADP employment change.

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[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.45
Despite dollar's selloff from August's near 3-week high at 107.04 to 105.11 on Wednesday, subsequent rebound to 106.21 yesterday signals temporary bottom has been made and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another gain, above 106.04 would yield 106.21, then 106.60/65.

On the downside, only below 105.29 would risk re-test of 105.11 but oversold condition should keep price above 104.73/78.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs at 13:45GMT. Street forecasts are 51.9 and 51.0 vs previous readings of 50.9 and 50.0 respectively.

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[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 24: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.85
Despite dollar's retreat from last Thursday's high at 106.21 to 105.45 on Friday, subsequent rebound to 106.07 in New York suggests choppy trading above Wednesday's low at 105.11 would continue and intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before re-test of 106.21, break would head to 106.44 but 106.65/68 may hold.

On the downside, only below 105.45 would risk weakness to 105.29, then possibly 105.11/15 later.

On the data front, the only data due out from the U.S. is Chicago Fed National Activity for July.

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[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 25: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.18
Dollar's rise from 105.45 to 106.07 last Friday, then intra-day break of said resistance suggests pullback from Thursday's 106.21 high has ended and upmove from August's trough at 105.11 would resume after consolidation and head to 106.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 105.70 would risk weakness to 105.45, break may bring re-test of 105.11.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Germany GDP, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Swiss non-farm payrolls, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. building permits, redbook, monthly home price index, CaseShiller home price index, consumer confidence new home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

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