AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

AceTraderFx Sept 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 23 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1687
The single currency's fall below Monday's low at 1.1731 to a near 2-month bottom at 1.1693 yesterday on usd's continued strength suggests decline from September's fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 has resumed and intra-day break below this level would pressure price to 1.1640/50, however, 1.1601 would contain downside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1774 would indicate a temporary trough is made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1797, then 1.12827 before down.

There is a slew of manufacturing and services PMIs due today from the euro area but one should also keep an eye out for Germany's Ifo consumer sentiment at 06:00GMT. Street forecast is -1.0 vs previous reading of -1.8. Elsewhere, Germany's Financie Minister Olaf Scholx will present the 2021 draft budget at 11:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 23: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 23 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.02
Despite dollar's erratic rise from Monday's a 6-month low at 104.01 to 105.19 in Asia today, intra-day retreat suggests first leg of correction has possibly ended and stronger retracement to 104.41/46 would be seen after consolidation, break would yield 104.28 before prospect of rebound later.

On the upside, only above 105.26/30 would risk gain to 105.51/56, then 105.85/90.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, monthly home price, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.

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AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.36
Dollar's rise from Monday's 6-month low at 104.01 to 105.48 on Wednesday suggests medium term decline from March's top at 111.71 has made a temporary bottom there and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another upmove to 105.81, then 106.00/10.

On the downside, only below 104.89/93 would risk stronger retracement to 104.63 but 104.41 should remain intact.

As there is no major economic data due from U.S. today, one should keep an eye out on the newswires as there are several Federal Reserve speakers who will be delivering speeches today.

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AceTraderFx Sept 25: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 25 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.43
Dollar's rally from Monday's 6-month low at 104.01 to as high as 105.54 in Asia today suggests medium decline from March's top at 111.71 has made a temporary bottom there and further headway to 106.05/09 would be seen after consolidation, then 106.29 later.

On the downside, only below 105.07 would risk stronger retracement to 104.89/93 but 104.41 should remain intact.

Pay attention to the release of of U.S. durable goods and durable goods ex-transport at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts are 1.5% and 1.2% vs previous readings of 11.4% and 2.6% respectively.

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AceTraderFx Sept 28: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 28 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.37
Dollar's rally from last Monday's 6-month trough at 104.01 to as high as 105.69 on last Friday suggests erratic decline from March's high at 111.71 has made a temporary bottom there and intra-day retreat from 105.68 (New Zealand) would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise to 105.81, then 106.29.

On the downside, only below 105.21 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness to 104.85 (50% r).

Pay attention to comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's, who is scheduled to speak at 18:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 29: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 29 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.60
Intra-day brief break of last Friday's high at 105.69 suggests upmove from last Monday's 6-month trough at 104.01 has once again resumed and further gain to 106.05 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 106.29.

On the downside, only below 105.21 would risk stronger weakness to 104.89/93 but 104.41 should remain intact.

Economic data due on Tuesday :
EU/UK Brexit meeting, France consumer confidence, Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP .
U.S. goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, redbook, CS home price, consumer confidence.

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AceTraderFx Oct 05: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Oct 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.66
Despite dollar's fall from last Wednesday's 2-week high at 105.80 to 104.95 on Friday, intra-day rise on risk-on trade after meeting renewed buying at 105.29 (New Zealand) suggests pullback has ended and re-test of 105.80 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend upmove from September's 6-month trough at 104.01 to 106.00/10 but 106.29 should hold.

On the downside, only below 104.93/95 would risk weakness to 104.69/74.

Data to be released later :
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, Sentix index, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Oct 07: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 07 Oct 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.90
Dollar's intra-day break above last Wednesday's 105.80 high suggests recent upmove from September's 6-month trough at 104.01 has finally resumed and further headway to 106.24/29 would be seen before prospect of retreat due to loss of upward momentum.

On the downside, only below 105.48 would indicate temporary top made and risks 105.29 but 104.93/95 should remain intact.

On the calendar front, U.S. will only release MBA mortgage applications at 11:00 GMT. However, main focus today will on FOMC minutes scheduled to be released at 18:00 GMT and traders should pay attention to the several Fed officials' comments for further signs of how the central bank views the outlook. Please refer to our EI page for more details.

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AceTraderFx Oct 08: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 08 Oct 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.98
Although dollar's retreat from yesterday's 3-week high at 106.10 suggests recent upmove from September's 6-month trough at 104.01 has made a temporary top, as long as 105.79/80 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 106.26/29, then 106.50/55, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 106.70/75 today.

On the downside, only below 105.48/53 would risk stronger retracement to 105.26/29, then possibly 104.95/00.

Data to be released on Thursday:
UK RICS housing price balance, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada leading index, housing starts and U.S. jobless claims.

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AceTraderFx Oct 09: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Oct 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.96
As dollar has rebounded after intra-day retreat to 105.82 (Asia), suggesting re-test of Wednesday's 3-week high at 106.10 would be forthcoming, break would extend upmove from September's 6-month trough at 104.01 to 106.50/55 before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only a daily close below 105.80 would risk stronger retracement to 105.48/53.

Data to be released on Friday :
UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, France industrial output, Italy industrial output.
Canada employment change, unemployment rate, and U.A. wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

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