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AceTraderFx Sept 15:Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by acetraderfx, Sep 14, 2014.

  1. acetraderfx

    acetraderfx AceTrader.com Representative

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    Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

    15 Sep 2014
    02:00GMT

    EUR/USD -..... The single currency moved in choppy fashion in fairly thin Asian trading due to closure of financial markets in Japan. Despite opening higher in NZ, failure to re-test Fri's near 1-week high of 1.2980 (intra-day top was 1.2979) prompted selling by st specs, price retreated to 1.2950.

    Although range trading is expected to continue, Fri's erratic rise abv 1.2963 res to 1.2980 suggests recent short-covering activities wud continue as Fri's release of CFTC data showed for the 1st time in 15 months, euro shorts pared their short positions. Bids are noted at 1.2950-40 n more below with some stops touted below 1.2900. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.2980/90 with stops reported building abv the psychological 1.3000 level.

    A piece of Reuters news which came out after Fri's close worth noting:
    ECB President Mario Draghi promised on Fri the central bank planned asset purchase programme wud be "big" but stressed that only structural reforms by govts could revive the moribund euro zone economy.
    Draghi told a news conference following a meeting of FinMins in Milan, "our balance sheet is expected to move towards the size it had at the start of 2012." He declined to give an estimate on the size of the ABS programme, saying "we know it's going to be big, but we are hesitant to give a number now".
    Draghi believed recovery was continuing, even though it was "fragile, uneven and weak". However, with interest rates now at their "lower bound", he stressed that it was now up to govts to reform their economies to improve their ability to grow.
    "No matter what monetary or even fiscal stimulus can be decided, we won't see much growth coming from these measures ... if there are no serious structural reforms," the ECB chief said.

    On Friday closing, the single currency jumped to 1.2979/80 in thin New York trading, however, selling interest there caped euro's upside n price retreated to around 1.2940. Offers are now tipped at 1.2975/80 n more at 1.2990. On the downside, bids are located at 1.2925-20 n more at 1.2910.

    This week will see the release of U.K. Rightmove house prices, Swiss producer or import price, eurozone Eurostat trade, U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, capacity utilization, industrial and manufacturing output on Monday.

    Australia's RBA meeting minutes, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Bank of England quarterly bulletin, Germany's ZEW current conditions and economic sentiment, U.S. core PPI final demand, Canada's manufacturing sales, U.S. Redbook, overall net capital flows on Tuesday.

    New Zealand's current account, Bank of England minutes, U.K. average earnings, claimant count unemployment, ILO unemployment, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, eurozone inflation, U.S. core CPI, CPI, current account, NAHB housing market index, FOMC rate decision and monetary policy statement on Wednesday.

    New Zealand's GDP, Japan's import, export and trade balance, China's house prices, Swiss trade balance and interest rate decision, U.K. retail sales, CBI trends, U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philly Fed business index on Thursday. U.K. Independence referendum.

    Germany's producer prices, eurozone current account, Canada's core CPI, CPI inflation and wholesale trade and U.S. leading index on Friday.
     
  2. acetraderfx

    acetraderfx AceTrader.com Representative

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    AceTraderFx Sept 16: Intra-Day News & Views(AUD/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

    16 Sep 2014

    AUD/USD
    - the RBA releases its minutes :
    -most prudent course likely to be a period of stability for rates
    -policy must take into account risk of further large build-up in home prices
    -members observed additional speculative demand could amplify property price cycle
    -members noted there had not been a general easing in mortgage lending standards to date
    -members judged current policy stance contributing to sustainable growth
    -A$ remained above most estimates of its fundamental value
    -iron ore prices had declined noticeably over the past month
    -signs of pick up in labour demand, but some time before jobless rate declined consistently
    -mining investment little changed in Q2 but should fall significantly over the next year
    -degree of spare capacity in labour market apparent in the slow growth of wages
    -recent Chinese data consistent with official GPD target of 7.5%
    -conditions in China's residential property market remain a risk to outlook for China

    Tuesday will see the release of Australia's RBA meeting minutes, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Bank of England quarterly bulletin, Germany's ZEW current conditions and economic sentiment, U.S. core PPI final demand, Canada's manufacturing sales, U.S. Redbook and overall net capital flows.
     
  3. acetraderfx

    acetraderfx AceTrader.com Representative

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    AceTraderFx Sept 17: Intra-Day News & Views (USD/CAD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/CAD

    17 Sep 2014 USD/CAD

    Yesterday the news conference by Bank of Canada, Poloz's views & statement:
    Bank of Canada is neutral on interest rates;
    Poloz: asked about dropping neutral bias, says will give all the new data full consideration at next monetary policy report.
    What happens next on the economy is still a big question mark for us.
    Still a strong case for waiting and seeing.
    Housing sector's bounce back from winter was a little more rigorous than we expected to see.
    Base case remains that pieces are in place for gradual reduction in household imbalances.
    Could take a year for jobs to return after pickup of exports.
    Believes there is some slack in job market not measured by jobless rate, but it is hard to measure.
    Estimates about 200,000 youth have withdrawn from workforce, maybe another 100,000 in prime age category are discouraged.
    Canadian rates are already higher than U.S. rates.

    Earlier news: "the Bank of Canada is not trying to manipulate or even guide markets as to the value of the Canadian dollar" Governor Stephen Poloz said on Tuesday, adding that this gives the bank freedom not to match possible U.S. interest rate hikes.
    "floating rates helped Canada ride the tides of the global economy without overheating or unduly slowing."
    "Trying to hold the dollar constant would give us larger fluctuations in unemployment, output and inflation, and in the end would not help us maintain our international competitiveness."

    Many analysts have suggested Poloz, former head of Export Development Canada, prefers a weak currency in order to boost the exports, are needed to take over from households as the driver of growth. The Canadian dollar has fallen 7 percent against the U.S. greenback since he took office.


    Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand's current account, Bank of England minutes, U.K. average earnings, claimant count unemployment, ILO unemployment, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, eurozone inflation, U.S. core CPI, CPI, current account, NAHB housing market index, FOMC rate decision and monetary policy statement.
     
  4. acetraderfx

    acetraderfx AceTrader.com Representative

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    AceTraderFx Feb 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    05 Feb 2016
    04:09GMT

    EUR/USD - ..... Euro is in holding pattern, just like yesterday's price action in Asian morning following another day of strong gain to a fresh 3-month peak of 1.1239 and then a brief profit-taking retreat to 1.1157 in New York morning.

    Asian traders are on the sidelined whilst European players may well keep their powder dry ahead of release of key U.S. NFP number. The active broad-based long liquidation in MT seen this week usd positions suggests buying euro on dips is the way to go, however, if U.S. jobs number turns out to be as strong as previous month's 292K, then one can expect near long longs to cut their positions n we may well see a swift pullback to 1.1060/70.

    For now, offers are noted at 1.1230/40 and more above, initial bids are reported at 1.1160-50 with stops touted below 1.1140. Some decent-sized bids are reported at 1.1170-60 with stops below there.

    Pay attention to release of German factory, French trade data in early European morning.
     
  5. acetraderfx

    acetraderfx AceTrader.com Representative

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    AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Outlook (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

    11 Feb 2016 00:02GMT
    DAILY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - 113.58

    Dlr's intra-day selloff below Tuesday's 114.21 low (now res) to a fresh 15-month trough of 13.12 after Fed Yellen's testimony suggests MT fall from 2015 top at 125.86 would resume towards 112.85 after consolidation, 'loss of momentum' should keep dlr above 112.45.

    Lower short entry for 113.00 1st and only a daily close above 114.21 signals temp. low made, 115.00.

    Data to be released on Thursday:

    New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Japan machine tool order, Swiss CPI, U.K. housing survey, U.S. initial jobless claims and Canada new housing price index.
     
  6. acetraderfx

    acetraderfx AceTrader.com Representative

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    AceTraderFx Feb 12: Daily Outlook (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    12 Feb 2016
    01:44GMT

    USD/JPY - .... The Japanese yen took centre stage again in Asia today, not by its sharp price moves but by Japanese officials' rhetorics (see previous updates) who expressed dismay over this week's spectacular but unwelcome yen's ascent.

    Although dlr briefly dipped to 111.91 when the Nikkei opened lower weakened by 4%, falling briefly below psychological 15,000 level, intra-day recovery in the N225 index plus comments by Japanese officials quickly lifted the pair to 112.60.

    Looks like dlr would gain respite today n brings choppy trading above yesterday's fresh 15-month trough at 110.99. If Asian stocks pare recent losses, one can expect a modest bounce.
    Bids are noted at 116.80-60 area and more below with stops below 110.90.
    Offers are tipped at 112.60/70 with some stops above there, however, more selling interest is reported at 113.00/20 area. Pay attention to release of key U.S. retail sales at 13:30GMT.

    Data to be released on Friday:
    Germany CPI, GDP, Harmonised index of consumer prices, France nonfarm payrolls, Italy GDP, Eurozone GDP, industrial production, U.S. retail sales, import price index, export price index, leading economic index, business inventories and Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
     
  7. acetraderfx

    acetraderfx AceTrader.com Representative

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    AceTraderFx Feb 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    12 Feb 2016
    03:10GMT

    EUR/USD - ...... Euro pares yesterday's erratic rise to a fresh 3-1/2 month high of 1.1377 in New York session and retreated in Asian morning to 1.1302. Traders reported fairly good offers were noted at 1.1370/80, so intra-day retreat suggests choppy consolidation with downside bias is in store as market now test euro's downside and short-term specs may probe for euro's sup (stop hunting).

    As a slew of important European data are due out, expect choppy price action after the release.
    Pay attention to German inflation data at 07:00GMT and flash GDP, Italy will release GDP at 09:00GMT followed by EZ GDP and u=industrial production at 10:00GMT.

    Offers are tipped at 1.1335/45 and more above with stops touted above 1.1400.
    Some bids are noted at 1.1310-00 with some stops below there, more stops are touted below 1.1270.
     
  8. acetraderfx

    acetraderfx AceTrader.com Representative

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    AceTraderFx Feb 15: Daily Outlook (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    15 Feb 2016
    01:33GMT

    USD/JPY - ..... The Nikkie index gain 4.3% despite early release of downbeat Japan's GDP data. Reuters reported Japan's economy contracted an annualised 1.4 percent in the final quarter of last year as consumer spending slumped, adding to headaches for policymakers already wary of damage the financial market rout could inflict on a fragile recovery.

    The data underscores the challenges premier Shinzo Abe faces in dragging the economy out of stagnation, as exports to emerging markets fail to gain enough momentum to make up for soft domestic demand.

    The contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) was bigger than a median market forecast for a 1.2 percent decline and followed a revised 1.3 percent increase in the previous quarter, Cabinet Office data showed on Monday. It matched a fall marked in April-June last year.

    Private consumption, which makes up 60 percent of GDP, fell 0.8 percent, more than a median market forecast for a 0.6 percent decline, a sign Abe's stimulus policies have so far failed to nudge households into boosting spending.

    Data to be released:

    Japan's GDP, industrial production, tertiary industry index, capacity utilization, China's imports, exports, trade balance, U.K. house price index and Eurozone trade balance in Monday.

    New Zealand retail sales, inflation expectation, Italy trade balance, U.K. CPI, core CPI, retail price index, producer price index, house price index, Germany ZEW current situation, economic sentiment, Eurozone economic sentiment, Canada manufacturing sales, U.S. housing market index, overall capital flows, foreign buying T-bond, NY Empire State manufacturing index and net long-term TIC flows on Tuesday.

    Australia Westpac leading index, Japan machinery order, U.K. unemployment rate, average earning, unemployment change, Swiss investor sentiment, Eurozone construction output, U.S. mortgage application, build permits, housing starts, producer price index, Redbook, industrial production and capacity utilization on Wednesday.

    New Zealand producer price index, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia, unemployment rate, employment, participation rate, China CPI, producer price index, Swiss exports, imports, trade balance, France CPI, inflation, Eurozone current account, U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, CB leading indicator and Canada wholesale sales on Thursday.

    Japan all industry activity index, Germany producer price index, U.K. retail sales, public sector net borrowing, CB leading economic index, Eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. CPI, core CPI, Canada CPI, core CPI and retail sales on Friday.
     
  9. acetraderfx

    acetraderfx AceTrader.com Representative

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    AceTraderFx Feb 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- GBP/USD

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    15 Feb 2016
    04:20GMT

    GBP/USD ........Over the weekend, Reuters reported that a clear majority of Britons do not expect Prime Minister David Cameron to get a good deal in his renegotiation of Britain's EU membership terms, adding to the pressure on him ahead of next week's meeting of leaders.
    Cameron is hoping to clinch a deal with his European Union peers at a summit on Feb. 18-19 which he can then put before the British public in a referendum on whether to remain in the 28-member bloc.
    Opinion polls suggest the country is evenly divided on whether to stay or leave, and much could depend on how they view any final agreement achieved with the rest of the EU.
    The latest ComRes survey for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror newspapers found that by nearly three to one, Britons were expecting that Cameron would not get a good deal for Britain.
    That was the view of 58 percent of those polled, while only 21 percent thought he would get a good agreement. The survey also had a worrying message for those who want to stay in the EU and hope to use the argument that Britain's economy will suffer if it leaves.
    While 39 percent said they agreed Britain would be better off in the bloc, 36 percent felt the economy would be better off outside.
     
  10. acetraderfx

    acetraderfx AceTrader.com Representative

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    AceTraderFx Feb 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (AUD/USD)

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    16 Feb 2016
    01:16GMT

    AUD/USD - ...... Aud rose after release of RBA minutes. Reuters reported Australia's central bank said the pace of economic growth should pick up gradually in the next few years without inflation being a problem, a benign mix that might provide it with the scope to cut interest rates further if needed.
    In minutes of its Feb. 2 meeting, where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at a record low 2.0 percent, the central bank reiterated that very low rates and a weaker local dollar were already underpinning growth.

    Based on the available data and the forecasts for economic activity and inflation, members judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged at an accommodative setting,the central bank said.
    There continued to be evidence that very low interest rates were supporting growth in household consumption and dwelling investment and that the depreciation of the exchange rate was boosting demand for domestic production as it adjusted to the evolving economic outlook.

    There was nothing in the minutes to suggest that the central bank has shifted its conditional easing bias. The Board noted that the outlook for continued low inflation may provide scope for easier monetary policy, should that be appropriate to lend further support to demand.

    Highlighting the RBA's level-headed approach to things, the Board began their discussion with developments in the domestic economy, while shrugging off the hysteria surrounding the recent turmoil in global financial markets.
    The RBA said whether financial market turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand remained to be seen, their next meetsing due on March 1.

    Data to be released on Tuesday:
    New Zealand retail sales, inflation expectation, Italy trade balance, U.K. CPI, core CPI, retail price index, producer price index, house price index, Germany ZEW current situation, economic sentiment, Eurozone economic sentiment, Canada manufacturing sales, U.S. housing market index, overall capital flows, foreign buying T-bond, NY Empire State manufacturing index and net long-term TIC flows.
     

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