AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

AceTraderFx Feb 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2016
03:18GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro tumbled to session lows of 1.1128 after dovish comments by ECB's Draghi. Reuters report on ECB President Mario Draghi backing a plan to revive Europe's weakened market for asset-backed securities (ABS), saying on Monday that it was well designed to strengthen the sector while guaranteeing financial stability.
ABS are securities based on pooled loans such as mortgages. The continent's ABS market has shrunk to half its size since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009 which was triggered by a collapse of this sector in the United States.

The European Commission proposed in September a plan to relaunch ABS in Europe by lowering capital requirements for a new category of "simple, transparent and standardised" (STS) debt.
The EU executive Draghi proposals represent a very strong package that achieved a balance between the need to revive the European securitisation market and the need to preserve the prudential regulatory framework.
He told the economic and monetary affairs committee of the European Parliament in Brussels that the ECB is preparing a formal opinion on the Commission's proposals.
The 28 EU states have approved the legislative package a few weeks after its publication, in an unusual example of quick EU legislative process.

The European Parliament needs to vote on the package before it can be turned into law. The ECB has bought 17.8 billion euros of ABS as part of a debt-buying programme started in November 2014 to help banks diversify funding sources and revamp the market for credit in Europe.
 

AceTraderFx Feb 17: Fed Rosengren stressed the central bank needs to ratchet down last Dec's economic forecasts


17 Feb 2016 02:38GMT

USD/MAJORS - Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren earlier who commented that the Federal Reserve should be "unhurried" as it considers when to again raise interest rates given problems overseas and financial market volatility that will likely dampen already low U.S. inflation.
Going a step further than cautious comments he made last month, & stressed that the U.S. central bank would need to ratchet down economic forecasts it made in December because oil prices have continued to fall amid turbulent markets and a global economic slowdown.

The Fed raised rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade, Rosengren a voter on policy this year and an influential dove at the Fed. said that a more gradual approach is an appropriate response to headwinds from abroad that slow exports and financial volatility that raises the cost of funds to many firms.
The comments reinforce the view among investors that U.S. central bankers have been spooked by a world selloff in stocks and oil based on fears of a broader slowdown, despite a relatively solid economic performance in the United States.

The Fed in mid-December published forecasts suggesting four more rate hikes would come this year. But Rosengren said those would likely be adjusted at the U.S. central bank's mid-March policy meeting because weak energy prices and a strong dollar would depress U.S. inflation into the spring. Persistently low prices may even indicate that Americans' inflation expectations are "becoming less well anchored," a red flag for any central bank.

Even while core U.S. inflation is 1.4 percent, below the 2 percent target, a relatively new measure of expectations tumbled to its lowest ever levels last month. Rosengren further said that while it is likely that much of the fourth-quarter weakness is due to temporary factors ... if more pronounced global weakness were to materialize and be transmitted to the U.S., he personally believe there would be little need to raise rates until the economy was growing closer to its potential rate.

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AceTraderFx Feb 17: Daily Outlook (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Feb 2016
03:27GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite yesterday's intra-day gain to 114.88 in Asia, the pair tumbled to 113.65 in European morning a selloff in oil price damped risk sentiment, price later weakened to 113.59 in New York morning before rebounding as rise in U.S. stocks triggered short-covering.

Although dlr extended said o/n gain to 114.40 in early Asian trading due to initial marginal gain in the Nikkie, price quickly erased intra-day gain and retreated to 113.87 as the Nikkie edged lower to negative territory.

Looks like choppy sideways trading with downside bias is in store as the Nikkei swing for small gain to loss.
Offers are tipped at 114.30/40 and more above with stops reported above 114.88.
Initial bids are noted at 113.90-80 and more below with stops touted below 113.50.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Australia Westpac leading index, Japan machinery order, U.K. unemployment rate, average earning, unemployment change, Swiss investor sentiment, Eurozone construction output, U.S. mortgage application, build permits, housing starts, producer price index, Redbook, industrial production and capacity utilization.

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AceTraderFx Feb 18: U.S. Federal Reserve is "not remotely close" to needing to consider negative interest rates

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Feb 18
02:38GMT

Last night at St. Louis, Fed President James Bullard said that the U.S. Federal Reserve is "not remotely close" to needing to consider negative interest rates and despite rising global risks, the U.S. economic outlook remains reasonably strong. There is not a need of the negative rates being used in Europe and Japan to try to encourage growth.
Even as Bullard suggested Fed rate hikes may proceed more slowly than expected, US are just not in the situation sitting here today where we would be thinking about those kinds of moves.

More on his comments, Bullard stressed that there is no advantage in choosing a higher inflation target, with the too-big-to-fail banks that remain an issue, there is a "long way to go" to fix these problems. The effort to curb this too big to fail should focus on ways to limit leverage.

Bullard continued to suggest that it is 'unwise' to continue hiking rates amid falling inflation expectations. The recent decline in equity and corporate bond markets decreases risk of asset bubbles, giving Fed 'more leeway' in its rate hike decisions. With the drop in inflation outlook and financial volatility that have undercut some of the core assumptions around which Fed's December rate hike was based.
The quarterly interest rate path projections of Fed officials may be counter productive, giving markets the sense that rates are on a set path rather than data dependent.
He expects U.S. and global growth to strengthen in 2016, with lower longer-term interest rates providing a boost.

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AceTraderFx Feb 19: Daily Outlook (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Feb 2016
03:25GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dollar is nursing loss during Tokyo lunch session after extending o/n decline to 112.71 as a gap-down open in the Nikkie do to a late retreat in U.S. stocks prompted another wave of broad-based yen-buying on risk aversion, price easily penetrated o/n NY low of 113.14 at Asian open, triggering stops below 113.00.

With the Nikkei index expected to come under pressure in post-lunch session, selling dlr on recovery is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 113.10 n more at 113.30/40 with stops above there.
Initial bids are noted at 112.80-70 with some stops below there.

Pay attention to release to key U.S. inflation data at 13:30GMT. In addition, later today at 15:00GMT, after last week's testimony by Fed Chair Yellen on Capital Hill, Yellen will deliver Fed's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, she will also answer questions from U.S. lawmakers, so any comments on future rate decision will affect dlr's movement.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan all industry activity index, Germany producer price index, U.K. retail sales, public sector net borrowing, CB leading economic index, Eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. CPI, core CPI, Canada CPI, core CPI and retail sales.

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AceTraderFx Feb 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Feb 2016
04:36GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Euro pares overnight losses n staged a modest short-covering bounce to 1.1129 after hitting a 2-week trough of 1.1071 in New York morning. Although euro briefly climbed above New York high of 1.1123 after tripping some stops above there, lack of follow-though buying suggests range trading is in store ahead of European open.

Some bids are noted at 1.1100-1.1090 n more below with fairly large stops touted below 1.1060.
Some offers are tipped at 1.1130/40 n more near 1.1150 with stops reported above 1.1180, however, more stops are touted above 1.1200.

The only data due out today in Europe is German Jan PPI, street forecast is looking for a M/M reading of -0.3 vs previous month's figure at -0.5% n Y/Y is expected to come in at -2.0% vs previous reading of -2.3%.

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AceTraderFx Feb 12: Latest News on Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Feb 2016
2:15GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr showed muted reaction to release of downbeat Japan's data. Reuters reported growth in Japan's manufacturing activity slowed sharply in February as new export orders contracted at the fastest pace in three years, a worrying sign that overseas demand is deteriorating rapidly as China's economy slows, a preliminary survey showed on Monday.

The Markit/Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.2 in February on a seasonally adjusted basis from a final 52.3 in January.
But it remained above the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the 10th consecutive month.
The sub-index for new export orders fell to a preliminary 47.9 from 53.1 in January, which would indicate the biggest contraction since February 2013 if confirmed in final data.

Exports in January tumbled by the most since the global financial crisis, in a clear indication that financial market turmoil and slowing emerging market economies have eroded demand abroad.

Under pressure from faltering global demand, total new orders from customers at home and overseas also changed direction and contracted, while job creation cooled to a five-month low.

Companies cut selling prices for the third month in a row, and more sharply than in January, likely reflecting both falling commodity prices and sluggish demand.
Japan's economy contracted more than expected in the fourth quarter due to weak household spending and exports.

While analysts expect a moderate recovery this year, stagnant wages, depressed consumer prices and faltering global growth have raised fresh doubts about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cocktail of stimulus policies aimed at re-energising the economy and quashing years of deflation.

More data to be released.


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AceTraderFx Feb 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Feb 2016
05:08 GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Despite staging a modest rebound from Friday's 2-week low of 1.1067 to 1.1138 in New York session, intra-day selloff in the pound dragged euro lower, price retreated to 1.1104 in Asian morning before edging higher.

Order book is pretty thin on this Asian morning with some bids noted at 1.1100-1.1090 n more below with stops touted below 1.1060. Offers are tipped at 1.1130/40 with some stops above there, however, more selling interest is reported at 1.1150/60.

Expect range trading above 1.1067 to continue as market awaits release of a slew of mfg & services PMIs to come with France's PMIs at 08:00GMT, Germany's at 08:30GMT, Italy's & EU's at 09:00GMT. Germany's Bundesbank will also release its month report at 11:00GMT.


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AceTraderFx Feb 23: BOJ's Haruhiko Kuroda :expansion of base money alone won't immediately push up prices


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Feb 2016
02:02GMT

USD/JPY - ......Breaking news: In the Parliament Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's comment that the expanding base money alone will not immediately lead to price rises and a heightening of inflation expectations.
-expansion of base money alone won't immediately push up prices, inflation expectations
-key transmission channel of QQE is to push down real interest rates
-it's true inflation expectations have been somewhat weak recently
-in long run, inflation expectations are rising
-must continue QQE with negative rates until inflation is sustainably above 2 pct

While the Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara said he expects Group of 20 finance ministers to debate on how to cooperate in response to the recent turmoil in global financial markets, and Japan was not engaged in competitive currency devaluation and that major economies share an understanding that competitive currency devaluation is undesirable.
-recent market moves are somewhat volatile
-expect G20 to debate how to cooperate in response to recent market moves
-G20 also likely to discuss oil price volatility
-Japan is not engaged in competitive currency devaluation
-G7, G20 share understanding that competitive currency devaluation not desirable

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AceTraderFx Feb 24: IMF is making huge demand on Greece in the pension reform

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
24 Feb 2016
02:30GMT

EUR/USD - .....Earlier Reuters reported that the International Monetary Fund is making a big demand on Greece in the pension reform which required to complete its first bailout review.
Negotiations between the heads of the EU/IMF mission reviewing progress on Greece's pensions overhaul, fiscal targets and the handling of bad loans, took a break earlier this month.
It is unclear when the lenders will return to Athens and whether the latest impasse can be broken.

Greece finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos said that the IMF is pushing them far too much. It's not socially sensitive, and is asking them to do more than they had agreed in the summer.
Under a third bailout of up to 86 billion euros ($95 billion) signed last summer, Greece was asked to cut pension spending by 1 percent of gross domestic product this year. Athens has refused to cut pensions and says it will increase social security contributions instead.

But IMF's director for Europe, Poul Thomsen, has said that Greece will need to implement extra measures worth about 9 billion euros to meet its fiscal targets by 2018 and that the Fund could not see how Athens could do so without major savings on pensions.

Without the lenders' acknowledgement of the reforms, the government cannot start relief talks it needs to show austerity-weary Greeks their sacrifices are paying off.

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