American Stock Exchange

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Alcoa Corp, technical analysis

The stocks of Alcoa Corp, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, are correcting around 90. On the daily chart of the asset, a global uptrend is developing, in which a five-wave structure is visible. After reaching the year's high of 93, coinciding with the initial trend of 61.8% Fibonacci, the growth has stopped, and the price is consolidating within the local correction.

On the 4-hours chart, a fifth uptrend wave is forming with the target at 108, coinciding with the 100.0% underlying trend level of a Fibonacci extension. Now, the trading instrument is consolidating within the local Triangle pattern, and the resumption of full-fledged growth is possible only after exiting it.

Technical indicators are in the state of a global buy signal, working out a local decline: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range began to narrow but remains directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms bars with a downward trend in the buying zone.​

 

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S&P 500, the US market is correcting​

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The US stock market continues to evaluate the recent revision of financial forecasts from leading analytical agencies. The day before, analysts at UBS Group AG raised the target price of Meta Platforms Inc. shares for Q2 2022 from 280 to 300 dollars. In turn, Chevron Corp., according to UBS Group AG estimates, will rise from 150 to 192 dollars. Prior to this, Goldman Sachs Group analysts also raised their forecast for the issuer's shares.

The US bond market is currently experiencing active growth: the rate of return on 10-year Treasury bonds rises by 2.44% and by 1.89% on conservative 20-year ones. More dynamic growth is traditionally demonstrated by short-term assets: annual bonds grow by 2.55%, and 6-month bonds rise by 4.26%.

The index quotes are traded in a local uptrend, having overcome the resistance line of the lateral channel the day before. Technical indicators are holding a local buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the buy zone.

Support levels: 4470.0, 4216 | Resistance levels: 4630, 4800​

 

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European stock markets are again in the "red" zone under the pressure of weak macroeconomic reporting. The volume of Industrial Orders in Germany in February decreased by 2.2% after an increase of 2.3% a month earlier. Among the main reasons for the negative dynamics is the fall in external demand from other eurozone states.

In the corporate segment, the largest automaker Volkswagen AG VZO announced plans to reduce the supply of cars with gasoline and diesel engines in Europe by 60%. The company said it had to revise its strategy after production faced a severe semiconductor shortage and rising nickel prices.

Another reason for the pressure on the German stock market is the refusal of the EU countries to import Russian coal as part of the sanctions policy against the backdrop of the continuation of the military conflict in Ukraine. According to experts, this step could seriously undermine the production activity of enterprises and call into question energy security.​

On the global chart of the asset, the price is traded as part of a correction to the previous decline. Technical indicators are reversing again and are ready to give a sell signal: the fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs started expanding towards decline and the histogram of the AO oscillator is approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 13850, 12600 | Resistance levels: 14510, 15341​

 

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One of the leading US indexes, the Nasdaq 100, shows a downward trend of 14547.
Serious pressure on the US stock market was exerted by the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) published yesterday. According to the document, most of the participants in the meeting would have preferred to raise the rate by 0.50% already in March against the backdrop of high inflation, but as a result, the indicator was corrected by a minimum amount of 25 basis points. Also, the regulator confirmed plans to reduce the balance sheet by 95B dollars per month. According to forecasts, the agency is ready to start a quantitative increase and increase the rate by 50 basis points at once in May.

This week, traders were on the lookout for reports that investment firm Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has purchased an 11.4% stake in the American manufacturer of personal computers and printing equipment HP Inc. The deal amounted to 4.2B dollars.

The index quotes have left the limits of the narrow downward channel and are forming a global Head and shoulders reversal formation. Technical indicators give a poor signal to buy: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range is still quite wide, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 15150, 16387 | Support levels: 14225, 13070​

 

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The leading index of the Australian economy, ASX 200, is strengthening, being near 7477.0. The Australian stock market is trading ambiguously due to a poor Friday report on economic stability and growth in the bond market.

Thus, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced the growing uncertainty regarding the development of the national economy, caused primarily by the continuing rise in inflation. Officials said they were closely monitoring the dynamics of household mortgage debt and lending and warned borrowers that they should be prepared for higher interest rates. According to department representatives, the country's financial system remains stable, and financial institutions are well-capitalized. However, inflation will continue to rise in the future, putting serious pressure on both borrowers and consumers.

The stock market is not allowed to fall by the bond market, which continues to grow actively. Today, the yield of popular 10-year bonds of Australia added 1.96%, while the rate of return on conservative 20-year bonds is 1.78%. Short-term assets show a more restrained trend: 1-year securities rose by 1.68%, and 2-year securities added 0.89%.

The price moves within the global Expanding formation pattern, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is high in the buying zone.

Support levels: 7380, 6980. | Resistance levels: 7550, 7750​

 

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The Dow Jones is correcting down and trading at $34,180.
The corporate reporting season starts this week with the publication of data by companies in the banking and insurance sectors. Despite the fact that the stock market is trading at its highs, strong financial results should not be expected during this period, and if the figures are higher than predicted, this will probably not affect the long-term plans of issuers.

The bond market is also showing historical growth, so a serious influx of money into stocks is not expected. The yield on popular 10-year US Treasuries updated the record of 2019 and amounted to 2.826%, while conservative 20-year bonds overcame the figure of 3.040% the day before. Short-term bonds are the fastest rising, adding 3.85% and 5.67% for 3-month and 6-month notes, respectively.

The index quotes are traded inside the descending channel, having reached the resistance line and reversed from it. Technical indicators are about to change direction and give a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is actively forming downward bars.

Support levels: 33,860, 32,550 | Resistance levels: 34,820, 35,870​

 

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The positive dynamics are developing against the background of reports about the acquisition by the London company ReViral Ltd. corporation, and this transaction is estimated at 525M dollars. Thus, the pharmaceutical giant will access several new experimental antiviral drugs. Note that this is the second acquisition of Pfizer Inc. in less than six months. Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. was acquired in December. The deal amounted to 6.7B dollars.

A positive signal for the asset was the appointment of David Denton as CFO, who previously held a similar position at CVS Pharmacy Inc. and has extensive experience in mergers and acquisitions. Experts believe the new appointment indicates Pfizer Inc.'s forthcoming business expansion as the issuer aims to reach 25B dollars in revenue by 2030.

The price is going down, but to develop a serious correction, the breakdown of 53.12 (Murrey [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is necessary. In this case, quotes will be able to drop to 50.00 (Murrey [4/8]), 48.44 (Murrey [5/8]). The key "bullish" level of 56.25 (Murrey [8/8]). Its breakout allows a rise to 59.38 (Murrey [+2/8]) and 61.50 (December highs area).

Technical indicators are signaling the continuation of the uptrend: Bollinger bands are directed upwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone, but Stochastic is preparing to leave the overbought zone, which does not exclude a correction.

Resistance levels: 56.25, 59.38, 61.5 | Support levels: 53.12, 50, 48.44​

 

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Visa Inc, the price may fall.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) developed, and a downward correction forms as the fourth wave (4). Now, the wave A of (4) is developing, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of А has formed, and the wave iv of A has developed.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 178.37 - 135.65. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 230.11.​

 

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The FTSE 100 index shows a local corrective trend, trading at 7574.0.
Corporate news is beginning to come to the fore in stock markets around the world, as the period for publishing the financial results of index component companies kicks off next week. The budget carrier EasyJet Plc. reported that the revenue forecast suggests a loss of around 500 million pounds due to low overall bookings. In turn, the shares of the online retailer ASOS Plc. strengthened marginally after maintaining the company's strong growth forecast for 2022, despite an expected drop in first-half earnings due to supply issues.

In addition, the continued growth in the UK bond market should be noted, where 10-year treasuries renewed another high, reaching 1.8080%, and the yield on 20-year conservative bonds increased to 2.021%, which significantly exceeds 1.741% at the beginning of the month.

The growth leaders in the index are British Petroleum Plc. (+2.40%), Fresnillo Plc. (+2.30%), JD Sports Fashion Plc. (+2.18%). Among the leaders of the decline are Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc. (-5.48%), Land Securities Group Plc. (-4.53%), Ocado Group Plc. (-4.32%).

Index quotes are trading within the global Expanding Formation pattern. Technical indicators are in a stable buy signal state: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator stays wide and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading high in the purchase zone.

Support levels: 7500, 7232 | Resistance levels: 7673, 7900​

 

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The shares of Tesla Inc., the world's leading manufacturer of electric cars, continue their global correction, trading at 1022.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is within the global Expanding formation pattern, which began to implement in October 2021. At the moment, the price has completely formed its sixth wave, having reached the resistance line at 1146, and reversed downwards.

On the 4-hour chart, there are signs of a new downward wave, with the target at the support line of the pattern around 760. The readings of technical indicators also confirm the likely continuation of the decline: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars with a downward trend in the buying zone.