Here's a new one.
My complaint is about this section:
“The key point is that the Fed should raise short-term interest rates from near zero to modest levels—say 2 percent. Long ten- or thirty-year bond rates would be largely unaffected or could even fall. But in the current zero- interest liquidity trap, such a modest increase in short rates has distinct advantages.
“First, in the huge but still constricted wholesale interbank market, constraints on borrowing or lending at medium terms to maturity would be largely relaxed. Only then can general bank credit at “retail,” that is, to firms and households, increase. Surprisingly, retail bank credit in both the United States and Europe is still declining."
The fact is, if you're watching the reforms that are being proposed by the BIS (if you don't know that acronym then I'd contend that you don't know the current situation...I say that because after I found out about it, my understanding completely changed...that means I'm not being elitist...it's a group of banks and the international standards they decide on to make it so that credit and capital holding of banks hold some meaning) you'll find out that banks are playing a game of hopscotch in anticipation for the new regulations that are likely to be imposed this year on tier 1 capital and deductions.
The fact is, banks won't be allowed to take the risk they have.
Now, to be the devil's advocate, I'd like to make one point. Mostly because of the competitiveness of banks, and also because we don't pay attention when banks are making record low profits (we notice when they're high), the only way to have a profitable bank is to take risks that no person would be willing to take.
If you don't, then you'll get a reputation for denying loans, where the soon-to-be big boys will make the loan because they 'have enough money to write it off.'
I personally believe that the average joe sunk both the big banks, and the economy. That said, I also believe that the big banks took their blow and their bailout, then paid their loans with interest only at fair market value. They didn't pay for the investment losses or more importantly the job losses of the public.
One thing we should all learn in our experience as traders, and also because of the pending ban of proprietary trading by banks, is that because you can't rely on a single trader to be right enough to make your quarterly income, or even a group of one hundred traders, it's not as simple as people believe it is to consistently give competitive rates.
Blah blah blah. At the end of the day, I'm saying I don't believe in monsters.
I guess I can also say that I don't believe in lifelong supermans either. (neat word, huh? supermans)
As a matter of fact, not raising interest rates is one of the biggest pieces of 'look out for the little guy' in government that I tend to see.