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ATFX Market Update 2019.01.11

Discussion in 'Company Articles' started by Kelly Yeung, Jan 10, 2019.

  1. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
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    Personal opinions today:

    US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made a speech at the public event, he said that the Fed will slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, but it is sure to continue to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet’s debt this year, which is another way to support on the US dollar. His speech helps the dollar last night. On the other hand, the European Central Bank meeting said that the central bank intends to push the rate hike time until the end of the year not in summer, the news caused the euro to fall. In addition, the British Parliament voted on the draft of the Brexit agreement next Tuesda. The Labor Party members said that they will continue to veto the draft, the UK will face the risk of hard Brexit, it could be made the pound weakened. Fortunately, the British government has arrangement for an Brexit, and the pound has not seen a deep decline. However, due to negative factors, the market generally believes that the pound may continue to fall.

    The Sino-US trade meeting ended. The current results are not higher than market expectations. The market waiting the next meeting schedul. Before this case, the market focus will shift to the US CPI and the real income update. If for reference, the US job market growth in December last year which is strong and the average wage rises. if guess the US CPl and real income are expected to beat expectations tonight. But the actual results will be left to be announced.

    In the afternoon, the UK announced the industrial production, commodity trade accounts and the GDP that the market values. These data will affect the relevant currency, while the performance of CPl and real income data in the US at night. Assuming that the result will affect the performance of the global financial market and the US dollar.

    Today's suggestion:
    EURUSD

    1.1530/1.1545 resistance
    1.1470/1.1455 support
    Tonight's US CPl and real income data released, the market may refer to the job market and the rise in average wages, it could be making the dollar strong. In addition, the European Central Bank said that the euro zone rate hike time delay, and consider continuing the long-term financing plan (LTRO), the news or affect the euro fell. Of course, the performance of US economic data at night is thestrong important to change the euro performance.

    GBPUSD
    1.2770/1.2795 resistance
    1.2735/1.2710 support
    The Brexit draft will be submitted to the Congress for discussion next Tuesday. The market estimates that the support rate of members of Congress is only 18%. The British labour party members have already expressed their vote against it. It may believe that the pound will face the downside risk. When investing in pounds and related crosses, you must pay attention to risks!

    USDCHF
    0.9815/0.9790 support
    0.9870/0.9895 resistance
    The Fed chairman explained the Fed’s monetary policy orientation, the dollar was supported, and the Swiss franc was indirectly negative. The US dollar against the Swiss franc broke through the most resistance level of 0.9790. According to the current Swiss franc trend is similar to the pace of the euro, if the euro continues to fall, it will indirectly affect the Swiss franc. USD/CHF has the opportunity to test resistance at 0.9870 or 0.9895 and even break the resistance.

    USD/JPY
    108.50/108.75 resistance
    107.80/107.65 support
    After the Fed chairman explained the Fed’s monetary policy, the dollar was supported and the dollar rose against the yen. In addition, the US Dow rose and the Nikkei index rebounded, indirectly affecting the rise of the US dollar against the yen. This practice has not changed, so investment must be carefully watched. Technically, looking at 107.65 for the time being is still an important support. If the Nikkei rebounds, it is expected to break the resistance of 108.50.

    AUDUSD
    0.7205/0.7225 resistance
    0.7165/0.7145 support
    The Sino-US trade meeting has made good progress and the China renminbi has appreciated. These are equally bullish for the Australian dollar. Earlier this analysis pointed out that the Sino-US trade consultation helped the Australian dollar to test 0.72 against the US dollar. However, the Sino-US trade war has still not been fully resolved. The Australian dollar is still likely to be adjusted for the time being and has the opportunity to test 0.7145. It is recommended to pay attention to the Sino-US trade negotiations when investing, and refer to the RMB exchange rate and copper price trend, which will help analyze the trend of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

    NZDUSD
    0.6765/0.6785 resistance
    0.6720/0.6700 support
    The New Zealand dollar followed the rise of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, and continued to improve after rising above the resistance of the 200-hour moving average of 0.6700. The market expects that China-US meeting are expected to make progress, and the China RMB exchange rate rose, which also supports the rise of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. However, the Sino-US trade war has not yet been completely lifted, and the New Zealand dollar has a chance to adjust. It is recommended to refer to the Australian dollar and the RMB exchange rate.

    USD/CAD
    1.3200/1.3180 support
    1.3255/1.3275 resistance
    Crude oil prices continue to rise, indirectly supporting the Canadian dollar. Therefore, we must keep an eye on the development of crude oil prices. Technically, if the US dollar against the Canadian dollar breaks the resistance of 1.3255, the US dollar will have a chance to test the 1.33 level against the Canadian dollar.

    EUR/GBP
    0.9055/0.9080 resistance
    0.9000/0.8980 support
    The euro zone's economic performance is better than that of the UK, and the risk of Brexit is rising. It is expected that the euro will rise against the pound. Technically, the euro remained above the 0.9000 and 0.8965 support levels during the day, and it is estimated that the euro has a chance to rise against the pound. It is estimated that the 0.9055 or 0.9080 resistance will be broken. However, it must be noted that the euro will fall sharply against the dollar and affect the euro against the pound.

    EURCHF
    1.1345/1.1365 resistance
    1.1305/1.1290 support
    This week, the euro zone announced a number of important economic data, the euro zone economy performance is good, the euro against the Swiss franc will be expected to broaden. Yesterday, the euro continued to rise against the Swiss franc after breaking through the resistance. At present, it is possible to wait for the last high of 1.1345, pay attention to trading risks and be careful to reverse the trend.

    XAUUSD
    1295/1297 resistance
    1283/1280 support
    The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board said that the Fed is considering a slow rate hike, coupled with the risk of Brexit, the partial suspension of the US government and other factors, the risk aversion continued, indirectly boosting gold. In the short term, if the US CPl and real income performance are better than expected tonight, the risk aversion will slightly cool down, which may affect the decline in gold prices. Technically, 1280 and 1278 are important support, and the important resistance above is 1297.

    US crude oil futures:
    52.75/53.00 resistance
    51.70/51.45 support
    The Sino-US trade war is improving, and the market has successfully negotiated between China and the United States to increase demand for crude oil. The minutes of the Fed meeting and the comments of the Fed chairman supported crude oil prices. Technically, however, it must be noted that crude oil prices at $53 may have significant resistance, as US President Trump often makes negative comments when crude oil prices rise, causing crude oil prices to fall.

    US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
    24135/24305 resistance
    23660/23550 support
    The Fed is likely to suspend interest rate hikes. The Fed chairman said that the Fed is not hurried to consider raising interest rates, which is good for the investment climate. Technically, the US Dow closed higher than the resistance of 23835. If the investment atmosphere continues to support, it is expected to test resistance at 24135. It must be noted that the US corporate performance report will be launched next week. The market may against the performance and adjust the position. The US Dow has a risk reduction.

    BTCUSD:
    3550 / 3420 support
    3950 / 4050 resistance
    The US Dow closed higher than the resistance of 23835, investment climate good and the US dollar rebounds. The crypto currencies have adjustment. Technically, the price maybe testing US3550 or 3420 support. Please keep watching the US dow and the dollar performance.

    Enjoy trading!
    The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
    Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
    Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China


    Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     

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