ATFX Market Updates 2019

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 5


Personal opinions today:

U.S. ADP employment change unexpectedly fell, from 128,000 in October down to 67,000 in November. Reflecting job losses in the U.S. private sector and the labor market, and the bearish sentiment in investment markets, the U.S. dollar index fell, and gold prices rose. Dow futures rebounded as the U.S. President signalled progress in trade talks with China and the investment climate improved, drawing capital into the dollar. As risk sentiment cooled and Dow futures rebounded, gold adjusted from a high of $1,483. Besides, OPEC and non-OPEC group meetings will be held soon. OPEC and non-OPEC delegates said they agreed to extend production cuts until the end of 2020. The expected increase in information bullish crude prices. Crude oil prices recovered from their lows to test last month's high of $58.60.

European markets are focused today on the Eurozone October retail sales and revised Q3 GDP. During the U.S. market session, the United States reported weekly jobless claims, October trade account and October factory orders. It will also focus on tomorrow U.S. non-farm payrolls data for November and a slew of data on the labor market. The 177th OPEC Congress is holding its opening ceremony tonight, followed by a press conference. Press conference comments and stance will again affect the price of crude oil volatility.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

18:00 Eurozone retail sales for October ***
18:00 Eurozone Q3 GDP revised ***
21:30 U.S. jobless claims for last week ***
21:30 U.S. trade account for October **
22:00 The 177th OPEC congress opens *
23:00 U.S. factory orders for October **
23:00 Fed governor Charles testifies **
Press conference for 177th Opec meeting to be held ***


EURUSD
1.1115/1.1125 resistance
1.1065/1.1055 support
U.S. ADP employment change fell in November to just 67,000. The number of ADP has fallen sharply, far below market expectations. The dollar fell, and the Euro rose against the dollar, having seen a high of 1.1115 support. It is still possible that the dollar will continue to fall on the back of a sharp drop in U.S. ADP payroll. But what matters is the outcome of Eurozone economic data today, which could extend to the downside against the dollar if Eurozone retail sales and GDP weaken. Important support bit targets, 1.1065 and 1.1055 support.

British Pound to the dollar
1.3135/1.3145 resistance
1.3075/1.3065 support
Yesterday this article mentioned that the US President's dispute with the leaders of many countries at the NATO summit caused the dollar to fall and the pound to gain indirectly. The pound rose further after ADP payrolls data sharply below market expectations. In the short term to tomorrow evening, the dollar could continue to fall, and pound could test resistance. It is because the result of U.S. ADP payroll declined in November, which could weigh on expectations for weak non-farm payrolls release tomorrow. Note that the 1.3075 and 1.3065 support breaks, respectively, indicating that the trend could fall further, testing below 1.30 to 1.2980 to 1.2930 support.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6860/0.6870 resistance
0.6800/0.6790 support
The federal reserve said it had no plans to cut rates further, improving the bearish Australian dollar. The AUD once broke through 0.6860 resistance. Hopes for progress in US and China trade talks could provide a boost to the Australian dollar. But the AUD gains have been limited by the lack of news so far. Technically, AUD is expected to test 0.6860 or 0.6870 resistance. In the short term, consider waiting for the first 0.6800 support.

Dollar to Japanese yen
109.15/109.25 resistance
108.60/108.50 support
The USDJPY rose as Dow and Nikkei futures rebounded. Technically, it is estimated to raise support to 108.60 and 108.50. If Dow futures continue to fall and the dollar index adjusts, watch for target support at 108.45 or 108.35. Dow p futures are expected to rebound if there is good news from the trade talks or OPEC members reach an agreement to cut output and extend the duration of production cuts, with the dollar testing 109.00 resistance, or 109.15 and 109.25 resistance.

USDCAD
1.3235/1.3245 resistance
1.3165/1.3155 support
The Bank of Canada remains interest rates unchanged. OPEC intention to extend production cuts until the end of 2020 has boosted crude prices. Technically, the USDCAD from 1.3320 resistance. As mentioned in this article recently, a rebound in crude oil prices above $57 could be bullish the Canadian dollar. Yesterday with these factors, the USDCAD breakthrough the support. Technically estimates USDCAD could testing 1.3165 and 1.3155 in support. If crude oil prices fall, watch for 1.3235 or 1.3245 resistance.

US crude oil futures
59.05/59.55 resistance
57.35/57.05 support
Yesterday mentioned the upcoming meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC to discuss production cuts. The market wait-and-see the sentiment. Crude oil prices were rebounded by news of an extended production cut. Technically, it is expected to support the rise in crude oil prices. If crude breaks $58.70, it will look for 59.05 or 59.55 resistance, respectively. But when it reached the resistance area, if there is no good news in trade talks, watch out for price correction.

Gold
1478/1480 resistance
1468/1466 support
U.S. ADP employment change in November sharply below market expectations, bullish gold prices. But last night the US President speech on trade talks with China caused Dow futures and global stock markets to rebound and gold prices to fall. Now that U.S. jobs data is below market expectations, there's an opportunity to be bearish on Dow futures, and gold could rise again after adjusting for gains. First testing $1,468 or $1,466 support. If investment sentiment falls and Dow futures fall, gold could try $1,480 or above again, such as $1,484 and $1,486.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27730/27885 resistance
27420/27365 support
A surprise drop in U.S. ADP payrolls in November, combined with concerns over international trade talks, could keep markets concerned that December trade talks between the United States and China and Europe will not continue, giving Dow futures an opportunity for a deep correction. Technically, Dow futures dipped to 27250 or 27165 support. At present, please note the support at 27420 and 27365. Resistance levels refer to 27730 and 27885.

BTCUSD:
7750/ 7885 resistance
7050/ 6850 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885, keeps to looking at the trends go down. If Dow future continues to fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebounds and probably over US7885. Otherwise, the Dow future rebounded, the bitcoin price could test lower. Such US7050 or US6850 support

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
bl5646_capture_51.jpg

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
  • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
 
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 6


Personal opinions today:

OPEC and non-OPEC members agreed to extend production cuts at the 177th OPEC meeting yesterday, boosting crude prices to near $59. Today's meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers will be followed by a press conference in the evening, suggesting a continued focus on the release, which will bring volatility to crude oil prices. It also indirectly affects Dow futures, Canadian dollars and British pounds, which are sensitive to crude oil prices.

Tonight's focus will be U.S. payrolls for November, the unemployment rate and the preliminary reading of the Michigan consumer confidence index. Recent U.S. data on ADP payrolls for November and higher jobless claims for are expected to lower US non-farm payrolls than expected this evening, bearish the dollar. The dollar index is now down at 97, level and Dow futures and the dollar index are expected to rebound if non-farm payrolls are flat or better than market expectations. But they are relatively bearish on gold and silver.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

15:00 German industrial output **
15:45 France trade account *
16:30 U.K. Halifax house price index **
18:00 the 7th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting **
21:30 U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate ***
23:00 U.S. wholesale sales **
23:00 U.S. Michigan consumer confidence index ***
Press conference for the 7th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting to be announced ***


EURUSD
1.1115/1.1125 resistance
1.1065/1.1055 support
U.S. ADP employment fell to just 67,000 in November, while the dollar continued to fall and bullish the Euro. Currently looking at 1.1115 and 1.1125 resistance. If the overnight U.S. non-farm payrolls data maintains market expectations of 180,000 or more, the Euro could test important support targets at 1.1065 and 1.1055 against the dollar, given dollar strength.

British Pound to the dollar
1.3180/1.3190 resistance
1.3075/1.3065 support
Ahead of next week's UK election, the focus will be on tonight's US non-farm payrolls data for November and higher jobless claims. The dollar continued to fall and bullish British pound. Technically, watching for the resistance at $1.3180 and $1.3190. If the U.S. non-farm payrolls data maintains market expectations of 180,000 or more and the dollar strengthens, the pound could test support at $1.3075 and $1.3065.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6860/0.6870 resistance
0.6800/0.6790 support
Hopes for progress in US and China trade talks could bullish to the Australian dollar. However, the progress of the trade negotiations has not been formally implemented, limiting the rise of the Australian dollar. If the good news stimulates, boost the Australian dollar. Technically, AUDUSD is expected to test 0.6860 or 0.6870 resistance. If the U.S. non-farm payrolls data beats expectations, consider the AUDUSD could test 0.6800, the first support level.

Dollar to Japanese yen
109.15/109.25 resistance
108.45/108.35 support
Dow futures and Nikkei futures rebounded, and the dollar rose against the Japanese yen. OPEC members decided they cut output and extend output cuts. Higher crude oil price, bearish Japanese yen. However, Dow futures fell since U.S. non-farm payrolls data were weak. The dollar is expected to fall against the Japanese yen, testing first support at 108.45 or 108.35. In contrast, U.S. non-farm payrolls data beat expectations, Dow futures rose, and the dollar could test 109.15 or 109.25 resistance against the Japanese yen.

USDCAD
1.3235/1.3245 resistance
1.3165/1.3155 support
OPEC and non-OPEC leaders agreed to extend production cuts until the end of 2020, bullish crude oil prices. A rebound in crude oil prices above $57 could be bullish the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD is estimated today to test 1.3165 and 1.3155 support on U.S. non-farm employment data expectations. If the U.S. non-farm payrolls data show strong growth or crude oil prices fall, the USDCAD will be looking for a 1.3235 or 1.3245 headwind.

US crude oil futures
58.80/59.10 resistance
57.35/57.05 support
OPEC and non-OPEC meeting, successful discussion of production cuts. Crude oil prices were boosted by news of an extended production cut. However, the combined output did not meet market expectations, and crude oil prices from $59 adjusted increase, limiting the upward and reversing. Tonight, another meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers could provide another news to the market. Technically, if crude breaks $58.70 again, it will move up $59.10, and the next target will move up 59.55. However, it is important to note that crude oil prices have a chance to adjust to a higher level on the $59 resistance.

Gold
1484/1486 resistance
1470/1468 support
Yesterday, the US jobless claims rose compared with last week. It was bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold prices. But the U.S. President said there was good news in the trade talks, causing Dow futures and global stock markets to continue to rebound, and gold prices to limit gains. Now that U.S. jobs data is below market expectations, there's an opportunity to be bearish on Dow futures, and gold could rise again after adjusting for gains. If Dow futures fall, gold could try another $1,480 or see $1,484 and $1,486.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27830/27935 resistance
27570/27420 support
A surprise drop in U.S. ADP payrolls in November, combined with concerns over US and China trade talks, limited Dow futures room for a rebound. Tonight, US release non-farm payrolls data, it could be bearish for Dow futures before. If the outcome below market expectations and approaches near the ADP number. Technically, Dow futures are expected to test 27,579 or 27,420 support. For further declines, watch out for 27365 or 27275 support. Resistance levels refer to 27830 and 27935.

BTCUSD:
7750/ 7885 resistance
7050/ 6850 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885, keeps to looking at the trends go down. If Dow future holds fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebounds and probably over US7885. Otherwise, the Dow future rebounded, the bitcoin price could test lower. Such US7050 or US6850 support.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
bl5646_capture_52.jpg

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
  • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
 
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 9


Personal opinions today:

The OPEC meeting, all OPEC and non-OPEC members had agreed to extend production cuts until the second half of next year. Non-farm payrolls rose sharply to 260K in November, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Crude oil prices have been pushed closer to $60. Meanwhile, a slew of U.S. economic data showed expansion, driving Dow futures and the dollar higher. As risk aversion wanes and inflation expectations rise, the FOMC interest rates decision this Thursday and the market believes rates will remain unchanged, and gold prices fell significantly to near $1,458 on last Friday night.

The dollar rose on last Friday night after US jobs data showed the economy was strong. Today, the market expected the Eurozone economic data weak, European currencies are expected to have room to fall. The Euro and the British pound and the Swiss franc are expected to fall from noon today. Depending on the economic data weakness, continued European currency losses. The FOMC, the Swiss national bank and the European central bank will set interest rates on Thursday, and so will the British parliament election. The dollar was widely expected to rise, while European and commodity currencies fell. The Australian dollar also has a chance to fall ahead of tomorrow morning, RBA chairman speech, which could indirectly influence the New Zealand dollar to follow suit.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

07:50 Japan Q3 real GDP ***
07:50 Japan October trade account **
14:45 Swiss November unemployment rate *
15:00 Germany trade account and current account ***
17:30 Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment index ***
At 06:05 am the next day, RBA chairman speech ***


EURUSD
1.1075/1.1085 resistance
1.1030/1.1020 support
U.S. non-farm payrolls rose sharply in November, the unemployment rate fell, and the dollar rose. The Eurozone economy is expected to grow only modestly as markets watch afternoon European economic data. The Euro could test $1.1030 or $1.1020 after the European market opens. With no U.S. data available tonight, the Euro is expected to check more important support levels against the dollar this week, with targets at 1.0980 and 1.0965, if expectations remain for the FOMC would keep interest rates on hold and the European central bank to keep monetary policy loose in this Thursday.

British Pound to the dollar
1.3160/1.3170 resistance
1.3075/1.3065 support
UK parliamentary election in this Thursday, it is likely to raise the market risk on the British pound. And last week, U.S. employment rose sharply in November, the dollar was strong, and the pound to the dollar had increased downward risk. Technically, look for short-term resistance of 1.3160 and 1.3170, with significant resistance of 1.3205. If the dollar remains strong, the pound could test important support targets, 1.3075 and 1.3065.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6840/0.6850 resistance
0.6800/0.6790 support
The market is looking forward to U.S. trade talks with China this week, finalising the latest development in the first phase of trade talks between the US and China. It could affect the Australian dollar to the U.S. dollar. But the Australian dollar's gains were limited today, and it is because of the RBA chairman speech tomorrow morning. Technically, AUDUSD is expected to test 0.6840 or 0.6850 resistance after the opportunity to test the low. The Australian dollar could check the first support level of 0.6800 against the greenback if RBA chairman makes negative comments on the Australian dollar.

Dollar to Japanese yen
108.90/109.05 resistance
108.55/108.45 support
The Japanese yen had risen after Japan reported the Q3 real GDP and a rise in trade accounts in October. But a surge in U.S. jobs data could give Dow futures and Nikkei index futures a chance to rebound, potentially lifting the dollar to the yen. Technically, USDJPY support is estimated at 108.55 or 108.45. If Dow futures and Nikkei index futures rise, the USDJPY could test upper resistance.

USDCAD
1.3270/1.3280 resistance
1.3230/1.3220 support
The Canadian dollar fell after the meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC. Also, the U.S. President criticised the Canadian prime minister, and markets worried that trade talks between the US and Canada this month, bearish the Canadian dollar. For now, it is recommended to wait and see the USDCAD 1.3280 resistance or 1.3330 resistance. The USDCAD moved toward 1.31 to 1.30 as sentiment improved.

US crude oil futures
59.45/59.80 resistance
57.70/57.50 support
OPEC and non-OPEC leaders agreed to extend production cuts, bullish crude prices. But the reductions fell short of market expectations, and the price of crude oil rose to nearly $60. Technically, it is expected that the 59.55 resistance has been completed on the target last week we mentioned. Without further progress in international trade negotiations, the chance of crude oil price breaking through $60 is low. It would set the current price of crude oil rose to $59 resistance and going to correction. Look below $57 or maybe $56 level.

Gold
1464/1466 resistance
1456/1454 support
U.S. non-farm payrolls rose sharply in November, Dow futures and the dollar rebounded, and gold was bearish. With U.S. jobs data showing growth and the FOMC may set interest rates and expected to unchanged, there is a chance gold price will continue to weaken. The market priced in that expectation last week, and already reflected in Dow futures, and gold price decline is likely to be limited. Technically, if the $1454 support level does not break, gold prices adjust the decline, is expected to test the 1466 resistance. Overall, gold prices are likely to continue to fall this week as the fed is likely to keep interest rates on hold.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28165/28210 resistance
27760/27620 support
U.S. non-farm payroll rose sharply, unexpectedly in November. However, investors worries remain over the status of US and China trade talks, limiting the Dow futures rebound and making correction more likely. No U.S. data will be released over the next two days, amid concerns that the US President any comments could lead to volatility in Dow futures. Technically, 27620 is a significant support level during the Dow futures correction. Important resistance notes the November high 28210 resistance.

BTCUSD:
7750/ 7885 resistance
7150/ 7050 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price still under US7885, keeps to looking at the trends go down. Only Dow future fell, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound. If it continues downward, the bitcoin price could test US7150 or US7050 support.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
The next FOMC rate meeting will take place next week on December 11, 2019, and looks to be an event that should not spur too much attention in the markets as the Federal Reserve has made it clear that they will not budge on rates for months.

CME Fed Watch Tool
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, interest rates traders are pricing in that rates will remain unchanged at the current interval of 150-175 with a 98.8% probability. It is first in June 2020 that we start to see the market price in a different scenario. At the June 10, 2020 rate meeting, the markets are giving it a 45.6% probability that the US interest rates would be lowered by 25 basis points.

bl5805_1_6.jpg

There are, however, some items that might change the outlook for the next week's Federal Reserve rate meeting. First, it will be interesting to find out what the central bank thinks about the latest weak readings in the US ISM indicators. At the rate meeting they will also be in a position to have a view on the most recent US job market creation.

I think the Federal reserve will not rock the boat, and instead wait for the next few months to see if the effect of their rate cuts is felt in the economy, and it should be positive as stock markets are currently predicting with their sharp price rise in the last few months. I even think the stock markets might be a bit too optimistic, and there is a risk for short-term disappointment, as we have seen recently on the soft ISM indicator readings.

Implications for the S&P 500
The implications of next week’s FOMC rate meeting for the Dollar and stock markets should be muted, but any overreactions by the markets are interesting.
The S&P 500 is in a clear uptrend for a few months and stands to gain following a more significant price correction, something that might be triggered by next week’s rate meeting. There are a few levels I would watch.
First, the long-term trend in the S&P 500 will remain upwards above the October 3 low at 2851.1, and corrections that do not extend below this low will probably be bought by investors.

The first level that interests me is the June high at 3024.3, this level acted as resistance and will and could trigger buyers to step in. Around the June high at 3024 we also find the median-line of the channel seen in my chart below. This channel has done a good job explaining the price action in the S&P 500 in the last few months, and it is suggesting that the price is close to the upper red-trendline, therefore, the S&P 500 is overbought. It is also suggesting that investors might consider buying at the 2960 level, the lower green trendline, followed by the lower red trendline at 2890, if the first few levels do not hold.

S&P 500 Index Chart
bl5805_2_6.jpg


Information provided by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist: Alejandro Zambrano

Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555). Registered Office: 32 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3SG. Company No. 09827091
 
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Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 10


Personal opinions today:

China's consumer price index rose in November, without food prices still rising nearly 0.77%. The results will reflect the fact that inflation in China is increasing again, reflecting the fact that China's economic growth is moderate and not affected by the U.S trade with China. That kept the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar in positive territory. However, China's inflation is moderate, bullish gold prices, but crude oil prices downward. This week, the FOMC and the ECB will be the focus of the market. In the short term, limit gold and crude oil price volatility. More likely to affect the investment climate, limit the Dow upward.

Afternoon in Europe, markets focused on U.K. trade account, industrial and manufacturing output and the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany and the Eurozone in December. Tonight, only one U.S. financial data, it is NFIB small business confidence index for November. As the economic data impact is not high, there is not much impact on the dollar index. However, the outcome of the data can reflect the short-term investment and consumer confidence, more likely to affect the Dow futures performance, thus indirectly gold and silver prices and crude oil price volatility. Crude oil prices were affected by the data, which reflected the EIA's monthly short-term energy outlook and API crude inventory change expectations.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

09:30 China CPI annual rate **
15:45 French industrial output *
17:30 U.K. trade account ***
17:30 UK industrial and manufacturing output **
18:00 German and Eurozone economic sentiment index ***
19:00 U.S. NFIB small business confidence index *
The next day 01:00 EIA monthly energy outlook *
The next day 05:30 API crude oil stocks change ***


EURUSD
1.1075/1.1085 resistance
1.1030/1.1020 support
The market looks to the afternoon economic data in Europe, which helps to reflect the Eurozone financial performance, affecting the Euro. The Euro was stronger yesterday amid market forecasts for growth in Germany and the Eurozone. Technically, however, the Euro remains limited to $1.1075 and $1.1085 resistance. If the data does not come as expected, markets will compare the strength of the U.S. economy to that of the Eurozone in the face of interest rate decisions by the FOMC and the ECB. With dollar strength, EURUSD has a chance to try $1.1030 or $1.1020.

GBPUSD
1.3170/1.3189 resistance
1.3075/1.3065 support
Before the UK parliamentary election, although the market will continue to pay attention to the performance of the UK data today, driving pound exchange rate volatility. Pound downside is likely to be higher if it takes advantage of the recent surge in U.S. job data and growth in the economy to drive dollar strength. The market is watching the UK economic data show a month-on-month increase, supporting the pound. However, if financial data is only in line with market expectations, the pound has limited room to rise and raises hopes that the Fed will hold rates steady and uncertainty over the UK parliamentary election, the pound could have more place to fall. Technically, look for short-term resistance 1.3170 and significant resistance 1.3205. If the dollar remains strong, the pound could test important support against the dollar, with targets for initial positions at $1.3075 and $1.3065.

AUDUSD
0.6835/0.6845 resistance
0.6800/0.6790 support
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chairman said the economy was still not growing significantly and looked ahead to 2020. The RBA is still likely to cut interest rates next year as inflation fails to match. The Australian dollar to USD was limited to 0.6850 on the RBA comments. Technically, AUDUSD resistance is 0.6840 or 0.6850. The Australian dollar has a chance to test its lows against the U.S. dollar amid uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs.

Dollar to Japanese yen
108.90/109.05 resistance
108.55/108.45 support
The Japanese yen rose after Japan reported a revised annualized Q3 real GDP and a rise in October's trade account. But the U.S. jobs data could lift the dollar against the Japanese yen. Generally, if coming to the Dow futures and Nikkei index futures. Besides, if the U.S. President can express more positive on trade negotiations news, especially for the new tariffs policy on China can be extended for a more extended period, to bullish the investment climate. The Dow futures rally, the dollar against the Japanese yen is expected to the 109 level.

USDCAD
1.3245/1.3255 resistance
1.3200/1.3190 support
OPEC and partner announced extended production cuts until the end of 2020, which is expected to bullish crude oil prices, bullish the Canadian dollar as well. The market is watching to see if the US President will extend the time to impose additional tariffs on China and release US crude oil inventory data reduced tomorrow. The U.S. dollar fell to the 1.31 level against the Canadian dollar if crude oil inventories fell. Technically, first phase support bit, 1.3200 or 1.3190.

US crude oil futures
59.60/59.80 resistance
57.70/57.50 support
The market looks ahead to release of U.S. crude oil inventory data and the U.S. plan to impose additional tariffs on China. If any good news, it could be bullish crude prices. Technically, look up to target 59.60 or 59.80 resistance. It would believe that if the market continues to lack more good news, the current price of crude oil rose to near $60 resistance, there is a chance to go lower, below the $57 or $56 level.

Gold
1463/1465 resistance
1458/1456 support
Gold prices were capped up and down as markets watched the FOMC set rates this week and were expected to keep them on hold. But if there is any change in U.S. trade tariffs with different countries, special China import goods tariffs. Also, the market waits and sees U.S. President makes any comments to the FOMC on monetary policy, let gold price volatility. It is better keeping an eye on the Dow futures, following the market reaction and the gold price movement. Technically, if the gold price doesn't break through the $1456 support level, it's still possible to test the 1465 resistance. Overall, without any stimulus from rhetoric or political contingencies, gold's gains this week are expected to be limited as the FOMC holds rates steady.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28015/28210 resistance
27620/27540 support
Concerns about U.S. and China trade negotiations, limiting the scope for Dow futures. Also, most investors worries about the U.S. President's comments on the FOMC monetary policy caused volatility in Dow futures. Technically, 27620 is a significant support level in the first phase of a Dow futures correction. Significant resistance notes the November high 28210 resistance.

BTCUSD:
7750/ 7885 resistance
7150/ 7050 support
Before the end of the year, the cryptocurrency demand still declines, bearish Bitcoin price and limited US7885 resistance. If Dow future fell, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, it would be looking at US7150 or US7050 support in the short term.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
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Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 11


Personal opinions today:

US will release the November core CPI, followed by the federal reserve's FOMC decision and Fed chairman Powell speech at FOMC press conference. Dow futures failed to break 28,000, and the dollar index retreated to 97.4 last night. Although the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, Fed chairman Powell speech could reveal the outlook for monetary policy next year. It is believed that global stock, currency and commodity markets will fluctuate in response to the comments during Fed chairman Powell comments.

Besides, there are concerns that the United States will impose trade tariffs on Chinese imports this weekend. Meanwhile, the US Congress is set to impeach US President Donald Trump, and gold prices have risen as high as $1,469. After that, the U.S. trade representative signed a U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement with Canada, and the gold price rose eased. Markets are waiting to see whether the United States will impose additional tariffs on Chinese currency imports on Dec. 15. Keep an eye out for Dow futures, gold and the Japanese yen.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

21:30 U.S. Core CPI ***
23:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories change **
The next day 03:00 FOMC monetary decision **
The next day 03:30 Federal reserve press conference ***


EURUSD
1.1105/1.1115 resistance
1.1055/1.1045 support
The U.S. releases its November consumer price index and federal reserve rate tonight. Tomorrow night, the ECB interest rates decision. The market is assuming that Fed monetary policy will hold rates steady. By contrast, if the ECB continues to extend its easing system. The dollar is expected to perform strongly, and the Euro has an opportunity to fall against the dollar. It could test 1.1105 or 1.1115 resistance, but then, it could reverse to check 1.1045 support or below.

GBPUSD
1.3195/1.3205 resistance
1.3105/1.3095 support
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady until the first quarter of next year, and the dollar will be strong. After the FOMC meeting, there will be the U.K. parliament election. The election period is subject to uncertainty, and pound may fall. Technically, look for near-term resistance to sterling at $1.3170 and $1.3180, with significant resistance at $1.3205. Pound could test a critical support level of $1.3035 if the dollar can stay strong, and the ruling conservative party fails to secure a majority to control parliament. Short-term support bit reference, 1.3105 or 1.3095 support.

AUDUSD
0.6825/0.6835 resistance
0.6780/0.6770 support
Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) chairman said the outlook for the economy in 2020 was still not improving. Australian inflation is likely to be below the central bank's target, and interest rate cuts are expected in the first quarter of next year. Also, trade tariff barriers between the U.S. and Australia's trading partners remain in place, giving the Australian dollar a chance to test its lows against the U.S. dollar. Technically, the AUD could check the 0.6800 first support level against the US dollar, and then have a chance to break through that support and try 0.6780 or 0.6770 support.

Dollar to yen
108.90/109.05 resistance
108.55/108.45 support
Fed was widely expected to leave rates unchanged. Dollar strength, risk aversion did not affect the yen, and the dollar kept a slight rise against the yen. The U.S. President said trade talks with China remain positive but did not say whether he would schedule additional tariffs on China import goods. The mood was cautious, with Dow futures showing no gains, limiting the dollar's gains against the yen. If it can be resolved, the dollar could test the 109 level against the yen.

USDCAD
1.3245/1.3255 resistance
1.3200/1.3190 support
OPEC announced the extension of a production cut agreement. Last night US, Mexico and Canada signed trade deals easing uncertainty over the Canadian dollar. If the next step is for the U.S. government to extend additional tariffs on China, crude oil prices could rise, further strengthening the Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar is expected to test the 1.31 level against the Canadian dollar. Technically, the first phase support bits are maintained at 1.3200 and 1.3190.

US crude oil futures
59.00/59.25 resistance
58.25/58.00 support
U.S. crude oil inventories rose, and it remains unclear whether the U.S. government will hold off on imposing additional tariffs on China imports, limiting the rise in crude oil prices. For the time being, it is recommended to wait to see Fed rate and Fed chairman Powell’s outlook for the next year. Any news that could boost economic growth would help push up crude prices. In the absence of any good news, the trend will continue to adjust, with 58.00 leading the target support level.

Gold
1469/1471 resistance
1456/1454 support
Gold price caps up and down as markets watch for Fed rate and monetary policy tomorrow. It is worth keeping an eye on the dow Jones futures trend, master the market reaction, master the gold price trend. Technically, if gold doesn't break the $1454 support level, it could test US1469 or US1471 resistance. Overall, gold's gains will be limited if the Fed keeps rates on hold and has the opportunity to do so for some time.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28015/28210 resistance
27620/27540 support
The lack of new progress in trade talks and looming economic concerns limit the scope for Dow futures to rebound and make correction more likely. Besides, worries about the U.S. President criticising the Fed monetary policy have led to volatility in Dow futures. Technically, 27620 is a significant support level in the first phase of a Dow futures correction. Significant resistance notes the November high 28210 resistance.

BTCUSD:
7750/ 7885 resistance
7150/ 7050 support
Before the end of the year, the cryptocurrency demand still declines, bearish Bitcoin price and limited US7885 resistance. If Dow future fell, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, it would be looking at US7150 or US7050 support in the short term.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
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