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ATFX Market Update - May 2019

Discussion in 'Company Articles' started by Kelly Yeung, May 2, 2019.

  1. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
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    Personal opinions today
    The economic and trade consultations between China and the United States in Beijing have concluded, and officials from the two countries will hold their eleventh round of talks in Washington next week. U.S. have reported that the two countries are close to an agreement to eliminate some of the tariffs. Media reported that China and the United States in the intellectual property rights and forced technology transfer problems such as progress, sources said, whether the United States and at what time, lift tariffs on Chinese goods worth $250 billion, could be the last one of the problem to be solved, U.S. officials said, enforcement mechanism and cancellation of the agreement tariff schedule; Some Chinese officials also acknowledge that enforcement mechanisms are crucial, but must be two-way and not limited to China alone. The progress made in the talks has contributed to the positive trend of Asian stock markets, especially the rise of China's A50 index, as well as the positive trend of the relative currencies, such AUD and NZD.

    U.S. ADP payrolls rose to 275,000, beating market expectations, which is expected U.S. non-farm payrolls rose over expectations for 185,000. But with U.S. manufacturing PMI and construction spending falling, the dollar fall in the face of a potential wage cut. In addition, the FOMC statement that it continues to be patient in waiting for a rate hike. That represents expectations that the U.S. economy is still suffering from a slowdown that could affect the dollar's strength.

    [Important financial data and events to watch]
    (Japan stock market, China a-share market, Shanghai gold exchange and China futures market closed)
    14:30 Switzerland real retail sales in March
    16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI in April
    19:00 U.K. Bank of England interest rate decision
    19:30 U.K. Bank of England press conference
    19:30 U.S. corporate challenger layoffs in April
    20:30 U.S. jobless claims for the week ended April 27
    22:00 U.S. factory orders in March
    22:30 U.S. EIA natural gas inventories

    Today's suggestion :
    EURUSD

    1.1220/1.1240 resistance
    1.1175/1.1155 support
    The dollar was certainly stronger against the euro after the FOMC meeting. In addition, U.S. private payrolls rose more than expected, the dollar did well and the euro fell from its highs. The euro's gains were limited ahead of expectations the non-farm payrolls data tomorrow. Technically, the EURUSD once tried the resistance close to 1.1265, but failed. If its fail again, there will be an opportunity to test support 1.1175 and 1.1155. In short-term, refer to 1.1220 and 1.1240 resistance.

    GBPUSD
    1.3080/1.3095 resistance
    1.3015/1.2995 support
    The GBP rebounded as the house of Commons was expected to reach a consensus to contribute to Brexit arrangements and remove some of the market uncertainty. The Bank of England is expected to reiterate its stance on the slowing economy and keep interest rates on hold today, which is bearish for GBP. Also, the GBP fell by a strong dollar on expectations of a rise in U.S. non-farm payrolls. Technically, GBP reference resistance at $1.3100. Technical reference resistance levels are 1.3080 and 1.3095. The first targets support 1.3015 and 1.2995.

    AUDUSD
    0.7015/0.7000 support
    0.7050/0.7065 resistance
    The 10th round of China and US trade negotiations has completed. Both have expressed their positions and plan to hold the 11th round of talks in Washington next week. Everything seems positive. Technically, AUDUSD adjusted 73.6 percent then rebound. If its recalculated, the preliminary estimates rebound, target is 0.7050 and 0.7065. The next target is 0.7100. Generally, the trend of AUD can indirectly lead the NZD. NZD support level, see at 0.6615. Resistance at 0.6665, further up at 0.6700.

    USDJPY
    112.00/112.15 resistance
    111.35/111.20 support
    The market volatility, the FOMC interest rate and the US job data, fluctuations on the JPY. Short-term technical reference support at 111.30, above resistance at 112.00, expected to fluctuate with the U.S. Dow and U.S. job data performance, the USDJPY have an opportunity to test the 112 level.

    USDCAD
    1.3460/1.3475 resistance
    1.3405/1.3375 support
    The Bank of Canada would keep interest rates unchanged and expected to raise them when the economy improves. The Canadian dollar steadied after the comments. The crude oil prices rise, positive Canadian dollar. Technical, the USDCAD has started a wave below a wave trend, 1.3460 and 1.3475 can be reference resistance. If the USDCAD tests below 1.3405 and breaks through, it is expected to test 1.3375 or below.

    U.S. crude futures USOIL
    62.75/62.25 support
    63.60/64.05 resistance
    The U.S. API and ElA crude inventories increased sharply, and crude oil prices fell, tested the support of 62.75. The FOMC reiterated interest rates unchanged its support for crude oil prices rose. Technically, crude oil prices are expected to remain above 62.75 and 62.25, with futures still looking to return to $66. If China and US trade negotiations positive and the tight supply of crude oil, it will drive up crude oil prices.

    XAUUSD
    1278/1282 resistance
    1272/1268 support
    US private sector jobs rose sharply, and the FOMC stopped short of cutting interest rates and their comments were positive for the dollar and negative for gold, which fell below $1,278. Technical resistance targets are $1,278 and $1,282. If the dollar continues to strengthen, gold prices are likely to test support for 1272 and 1268.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    26380/26315 support
    26465/26600 resistance
    China and the US held meeting on next Friday and expected cut the import tariffs on $250 billion worth of goods, supporting the investment climate. In addition, the market was also helped by expectations of job growth at U.S. which could be improved Dow. Technically, DJI refer to 26465 or 26315 support and 26465 or 2600 resistance.

    BTCUSD:
    5650 / 5800 resistance
    5200 / 5070 support
    The FOMC keeps the interest rates unchanged, the bitcoin price could up. Now the market waiting for the US non-farm payroll results. If good number, positive bitcoin. Technically the bitcoin price is expected testing US5500, test lower support 5200 or 5070 support.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
    Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
    Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

    Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     
  2. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

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    The Australian dollar is always interesting to trade, but early next week it will be even more interesting. The markets are giving it a 50% probability that the central bank will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points at their May 7th meeting, and if they indeed go ahead, we may see a large bearish move in the AUDUSD, while leaving rates unchanged might see the AUD gain.
    Following the latest inflation report, the outlook for an RBA rate cut increased. Inflation has failed to gain momentum and has maintained a 1.3% annual rate for about two years. The 1.3% reading is lower than the central banks 2 to 3 percent target range. Economists are, however, projecting a rise in the next few months and we might see inflation rise to 1.6%, as crude oil prices have rallied sharply from their December lows, however, a 1.6% reading will still be too low for the RBA.
    Looking at annual core inflation, the outlook remains gloomy, and the annual pace of core inflation is projected to remain around 1.4%, a reading that is way too low for the liking of the RBA.
    Low inflation figures are not the only reason to have a bearish outlook for the Australian dollar; economic growth has remained soft for almost a year and economist project the RBA to lower their GDP forecast. Also, house prices are falling sharply in Australia’s largest cities and should deter people’s consumption. As a consequence, one of the biggest banks in Australia is now suggesting, rate cuts will take place in August and May.
    As for the technicals, the AUDUSD is trapped within 0.6977 and 0.7204, and the charts suggest that we are dealing with an ascending triangle, which suggests that AUDUSD might trade to about 0.6660, on a break to the 0.6977 level. However, until the price breaks the 0.6977 and 0.7204 levels, the AUDUSD will remain range-bound, and the technicals suggest that we should wait for a break to the range.
    AUDUSD Daily Chart
    Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     
  3. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
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    Personal opinions today
    On Wednesday, U.S. ADP reported 275,000 jobs, over market expectations, the market expected the non farm payrolls data also over expectation 185,000 jobs. The only thing that matters is whether average wages. If the result over market expectations, the dollar strengthened. But now, the dollar rose against major currencies, and gold prices fell and hit $1,266 yesterday. The dollar is expected to remain strong into early next week if the non farm payroll and average wages reports just meet the numbers. Instead, the dollar's strength will end tonight, with the dollar likely to fall against major currencies and gold having a chance to rally.
    European trading session attention today, the Eurozone and U.K. released important data. The eurozone CPI and the U.K. services PMI are important, but if the data only comes in line with expectations, Euro and GBP currencies could test lows again ahead of the U.S. non farm payrolls.
    [Important financial data and events to watch]
    13:45 Swiss consumer confidence index in April
    14:30 Swiss CPI in April
    16:30 UK services PMI in April
    17:00 Eurozone PPI monthly rate in March
    17:00 Eurozone CPI annual rate in April
    20:30 U.S. non farm payrolls in April
    20:30 U.S. unemployment rate and average wages in April
    21:45 U.S. Markit services PMI in April
    22:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April
    22:15 U.S.Fed's Evans speech
    23:30 U.S.Federal vice chairman speech
    The next day 01:45 U.S.Federal chairman Williams speech
    The next day 03:00 U.S.Federal governor bowman speech
    Today's suggestion:
    EURUSD
    1.1190/1.1215 resistance
    1.1155/1.1140 support
    U.S. private payrolls rose more than expected, the Federal reserve kept interest rate hikes in future, the dollar stronger, and the euro fell after hitting a record high. The euro's gains were also limited by the market's wait for U.S. non-farm payrolls data. Technically, EURUSD resistance is 1.1190 and 1.1215, and support refer to 1.1155 and 1.1140. The EURUSD could test $1.1110 if U.S. job data is strong and average wages rise higher than expected.
    GBPUSD
    1.3055/1.3075 resistance
    1.2995/1.2980 support
    The Bank of England monetary policy reiterated its outlook for a slowing economy and interest rates unchanged, which was bearish for GBP. In addition, the U.S. economy reported non farm payrolls, market expectations for growth, a strong dollar and a weaker GBP. Technically, the GBP against the dollar reference important resistance level of 1.3100. The reference resistance in short term, drops to 1.3055 and 1.3075. The GBP could test support for 1.2995 or 1.2980 if U.S. job data is strong and average wages rise higher than expected.
    AUDUSD
    0.6985/0.6970 support
    0.7030/0.7045 resistance
    The U.S. dollar was stronger before the release the U.S. non farm payrolls ahead of a better-than-expected ADP. But trade talks between China and the United States are expected to final next week, which could bullish AUD. Technically, AUDUSD are expected to test 0.6985 and 0.6970 support. If AUDUSD rebound, may indirectly lead NZDUSD rise. NZDUSD support refer to 0.6605 or 0.6585.
    USDJPY
    111.85/112.00 resistance
    111.35/111.20 support
    The Dow Jones industrial average fell, and the USDJPY once tried to support 111.35, but the rebound was only weak, only 111.55. But the predicted a strong U.S. jobs report today, along with a rise in the Dow, could boost USDJPY rally. The technical support are 111.35 and 111.20, while the upper resistance levels are 111.85 and 112.00. The USDJPY trend could be followed by Dow.
    USDCAD
    1.3460/1.3475 resistance
    1.3405/1.3375 support
    Crude oil prices fell, bearish the Canadian dollar. In addition, the dollar's strength on expectations of a better-than-expected U.S. non farm payrolls report was also negative for the Canadian dollar. Technical trend, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar to initially destroy a wave, back to the previous high and resistance level of 1.3475. The dollar could test $1.3405 against the Canadian dollar if U.S. jobs data is only in line with expectations and wages are not higher than expected today. If crude oil prices rebound, bullish for the Canadian dollar. The dollar could test 1.33 against the Canadian dollar.
    U.S. crude futures USOIL
    60.80/59.85 support
    62.65/63.55 resistance
    Yesterday, API and ElA reported sharp increases in crude inventories, crude oil prices lower. In addition, the fed has maintained its chances of raising interest rates in the future, which is bearish for crude oil prices. Technically, crude oil prices fell below 62.25 support and extended to adjusted wave of 23.6 percent, having seen $60.80. It is believed that if the U.S. job data is strong and wage growth is better than expected, crude oil prices may consolidate and then be boosted by good news from the China and U.S. trade talks next week.
    XAUUSD
    1278/1282 resistance
    1266/1262 support
    The U.S. economy seems continues to grow, after the private sector jobs over market expectations. In addition, the Fed said it was not considering a rate cut, but was holding its to raise rates, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar but bearish for gold, its cause the gold price fell to $1,266 yesterday. Gold prices fell on the back of strong U.S. jobs data and a positive dollar. Gold prices could rebound if non farm payrolls below 230,000 and wage growth under the market expectations. Technical resistance targets are $1,278 and $1,282. If the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, gold prices are likely to test support for 1266 and 1262.
    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    26140/26055 support
    26425/26530 resistance
    The Dow Jones industrial average fell on expectations that the federal reserve will keep raising interest rates. At the same time, the decline in the price of crude oil, the relevant industry stocks fell, decline in the Dow. If the U.S. jobs report over the market expected today and hopes that China and U.S. trade talks could cancel the import tariffs between China and U.S., which could boost the investment climate. Technically, looking the Dow support at 26140 and 26055 and resistance at 26425 and 26530.
    BTCUSD:
    5650 / 5800 resistance
    5200 / 5070 support
    The FOMC keeps the interest rates unchanged, the bitcoin price could up. Now the market waiting for the US non-farm payroll results. If good number, positive bitcoin. Technically the bitcoin price is expected testing US5500, test lower support 5200 or 5070 support.
    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
    Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
    Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
    Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
    Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     
  4. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
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    The Australian economy and dollar has been under pressure over the last few months, and might further fall if the RBA cuts rates on May 7.

    Watch our video to find out what forex traders will be watching as they plan their trades around the RBA rate meeting on May 7. Not only do we show what we think may happen if they cut rates, but also what may happen if they leave rates unchanged.

    As of May 1, the market was giving it a 50 percent probability of a rate cut, and large Australian bank's where projecting at least two rate cuts in 2019, but not necessarily taking place in May.

    For more content like this, follow Alex on Twitter @AlexFX00.

    Like and Subscribe for more daily market analysis and reaction.

    For more information on our trading accounts, visit https://www.atfx.com/uk/en/
    HIGH-RISK INVESTMENT WARNING: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs / Spread betting with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs / Spread betting work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

    website: www.atfx.com
     
  5. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
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  6. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
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    Personal opinions today
    After a sharp rise in private ADP jobs in April, the US nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected to 263,000 in April. Private nonfarm payrolls totaled 230,000 in April, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6 percent, beating market expectations. Unfortunately, hourly wages under expectations, fell below market estimates.

    The dollar index's rally ended after U.S. service sector purchasing managers fell short of market expectations in April, while the EURO , GBP and gold price rallied.

    Separately, the US President expressed dissatisfaction with the progress of Sino-U.S. trade talks and considered raising additional tariffs on some us $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to US goods on Friday. U.S. Dow futures were among the first to fall, and Asian stocks followed, with regional currencies such as the China RMB, AUD and NZD falling. Crude oil futures tumbled to $60. The dollar broke above 110.50 yen. If there is no any good news this week to ease tensions, which have dampened investment sentiment, it will affect global stock markets, crude oil prices and Asia currencies except JPY. Conventional safe-haven funds would push up the price of gold and the JPY.

    [Important financial data and events to watch]
    (UK, Japan and South Korea are closed for the day)
    15:50 final French services PMI in April
    15:55 German final service PMI in April
    16:00 Eurozone services PMI in April
    16:30 Eurozone investors confidence sentiment index in May
    17:00 Eurozone retail sales rate in March
    18:00 US Chicago fed releases highlights of Evans speech
    The next day, 01:45, governor of the bank of Canada speech


    Today's suggestion:
    EURUSD

    1.1210/1.1225 resistance
    1.1155/1.1140 support
    U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in April and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6 percent. But the dollar ended its gains after average U.S. wages and services purchasing managers fell short of expectations in April. The euro was supported, hitting a high of 1.12. The US President's latest comments have damaged Sino-U.S. relations and spilt over into European currencies. And expectations that the eurozone retail sales rate would fall to minus 0.1 percent limited the euro's gains in the short term. Technical by daily chart, the EURUSD resistance are 1.1210 and 1.1225. Support are 1.1155 and 1.1140.

    GBPUSD
    1.3155/1.3175 resistance
    1.3095/1.3075 support
    U.S. jobs data showed strong growth, but the average wage and services purchasing manager index fell short of market expectations, ending the dollar's rally. In addition, the President of the United States has said the Fed rate cuts, boosting the GBP. But the latest news is that the President of the United States will plan to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, threatening that money may flow to the dollar and limiting the rise of the GBP. In the short term, the key resistance are 1.3155 and 1.3175. The first target support are 1.3095 and 1.3075.

    AUDUSD
    0.6985/0.7005 resistance
    0.6945/0.6930 support
    Australia, which has tight trade relations with China, fell on expectations of a slowdown due to trade tensions between U.S. And China. The opening today, AUDUSD broke through 0.6985 support, close to 0.6960 support. The reserve bank of Australia (RBA) believes there are downside risks to AUD ahead of its policy meeting tomorrow. Now AUDUSD can refer to 0.6985 and 0.7005 resistance. The first support are 0.6945 and 0.6930. In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rates decision on Wednesday and the market watched the monetary policy and economic outlook, with short-term reference to the NZDUSD support at 0.6585.

    USDJPY
    110.85/111.05 resistance
    109.85/109.60 support
    The Dow Jones industrial average fell on the impact of the US President's remarks, while the Nikkei followed fell, with the USDJPY once testing support for 110.25. If tensions between the U.S. and China rise and stocks continue to fall, USDJPY will keep fall. Short-term technical support are 109.85 and 109.60, and upper reference resistance are 110.85 and 111.05. At present, the change of market news dominates the trend of the USDJPY. It is suggested to refer to the fluctuation of the U.S. Dow and follow the synchronous development.

    USDCAD
    1.3530/1.3575 resistance
    1.3405/1.3375 support
    Tensions between China and the United States and the possible failure of trade talks between the two countries have hurt crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar. Technical trend, the USDCAD once again test resistance 1.3475. If crude oil prices fall, the USDCAD could test near the $1.36 level. If crude oil prices rebound, bullish for the Canadian dollar. The USDCAD could test 1.33.

    U.S. crude futures USOIL
    59.85/59.05 support
    62.65/63.55 resistance
    U.S. President's comments have strained relations between the United States and China, and this week trade talks between the two countries are likely to fail. Technically, crude oil prices fell below 62.25 support and extended an adjustment wave of 23.6 percent to see $60.80 again, with the next test likely to be below $59 to $58. Believe that if the Sino-U.S. relationship improved, can be boost the price of crude oil.

    XAUUSD
    1288/1292 resistance
    1280/1276 support
    Market tensions are rising again, with tensions over Sino-U.S. relations and trade becoming a global stock market trouble, and gold set to become a safe-haven asset with a chance to push up the price of gold. If relations cool down this week, gold prices could fall. The technical resistance targets is $1,288 and $1,292. If tensions ease, gold price could test support $1,276.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    26140/26305 resistance
    25960/25785 support
    China and U.S. tensions and trouble on global stock markets, Dow fell sharply. If trade talks between China and the United States are expected to continue and import tariffs on Chinese imports are lifted, that could boost the investment climate and allow the Dow to rebound. Technically, refer to resistance 26140 and 26305 and support 25960 and 25785.

    BTCUSD:
    5850 / 6000 resistance
    5400 / 5270 support
    The FOMC keeps the interest rates unchanged. China and U.S. tension and troubled on global stock markets; Dow fell sharply. The bitcoin price could up. Now the market waiting for the US non-farm payroll results. If good number, positive bitcoin. Technically the bitcoin price is expected testing US5500, test lower support 5200 or 5070 support.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
    Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
    Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

    Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     
  7. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    280
    Likes Received:
    3
    Personal opinions today
    Markets are worried the U.S. government will raise tariffs to 25% on imports from China to U.S. goods on Friday. Dow and global stock fell, money flowed into gold and JPY, which all rose. In addition, the United States is expected to impose tariffs on Chinese imports of U.S. goods in anticipation of the collapse of trade talks between China and the United States this week, and global productivity is expected to decline. Also, crude oil price fell back to $61 again.

    While trade talks between the United States and China are set to begin tomorrow, market fears are rising amid threats from the US President. Any news that eased tensions during the talks would boost global stocks and restore the investment climate. On the other hand, if the talks fail and the United States imposes tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday, the market will be tough, with the possibility of a repeat of December last year, global stock market decline. In addition, the price of crude oil is likely to fall, money flow into gold and the JPY. The Chinese RMB, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are again facing declines.

    [Important financial data and events to watch]
    10:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary decision
    10:00 China trade account in April
    10:50 China's trade books were denominated in dollars in April
    13:45 Swiss unemployment rate in April
    14:00 Germany industrial output in March
    15:30 UK Halifax house price index in April
    19:30 ECB President Mario draghi speaks
    20:30 Fed governor, Ben speaks
    22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ended May 3


    Today's suggestion:
    EURUSD

    1.1210/1.1225 resistance
    1.1170/1.1155 support
    European central bank President Mario draghi speech today Brexit and uncertainties in the trade talks and the failure of the European central bank to ease monetary policy. The euro could fall if Draghi delivers bearish comments and an economic outlook. Conversely, the euro has a chance to break through the near-term resistance of 1.1225. Technically, the EURUSD daily chart reference resistance of 1.1210 and 1.1225. Support are target at 1.1170 and 1.1155. During this period, investors need to keep an eye on the development of China and US trade relations, which could affect the trigger for the fall in the Euro and Swiss franc if it becomes serious.

    GBPUSD
    1.3095/1.3125 resistance
    1.3050/1.3020 support
    The British prime minister joined with other parties to discuss Brexit, but still keep on the steps, negative impact of Brexit. The GBP fell from 1.31. The Chin and US trade negotiations uncertainty, the dollar rose, the GBO fall. Keep an eye on the trade relations and judge the situation. Technically, the reference resistance level was lowered to 1.3095 and 1.3125. The reference supports keep on eyes to 1.3050 and 1.3020.

    AUDUSD
    0.7025/0.7040 resistance
    0.6980/0.6965 support
    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged yesterday, in line with market expectations. As the central bank kept interest rates unchanged, AUDUSD rose, as high as 0.7045. But tensions over trade between the United States and China ultimately dragged AUDUSD down. If the Sino-US trade relationship fails, AUDUSD focused on the first support of 0.6965.

    USDJPY
    110.45/110.70 resistance
    110.05/109.80 support
    The U.S. Dow and Nikkei fell, respectively, and the dollar fell against the yen after comments from the U.S. President and threats to raise tariffs on Chinese imports. If tensions between China and the US increase and stocks continue to fall, the USDJPY will follow the decline of Dow and Nikkei expands. If the stock market rises, the reference resistance of USDJPY is 110.70. It is suggested to refer to the fluctuation of the Dow and follow the synchronous development. It is estimated that the larger the stock market fluctuation range, the higher the fluctuation range of the USDJPY.

    USDCAD
    1.3470/1.3495 resistance
    1.3405/1.3375 support
    Crude oil inventories rose, trade tensions between China and the United States increased, and the dollar rose, against the Canadian dollar. Technical trend, the USDCAD to try resistance level 1.3475. If crude prices fall further, the USDCAD could test near the $1.35 level. If crude oil prices rebound, bullish for the Canadian dollar. USDCAD may test $1.3400 and $1.33 level.

    U.S. crude futures USOIL
    61.35/60.85 support
    62.45/63.25 resistance
    Crude oil prices fell as U.S. President's comments weighed on tensions with China. But crude oil prices rebounded after a U.S. oil embargo on Iran tightened supplies. Technically, the key support level is $60.85, and a breakout could test below $59 to $58. On the contrary, any good news from the trade talks could boost crude oil prices. Please keep an eye on the Sino-US trade negotiations and judge the situation.

    XAUUSD
    1287/1295 resistance
    1282/1277 support
    Sino-US relations tensions, global stock market volatility, money flowing into gold, pushing up the price of the gold. If relations is bad this week, gold prices could rise. Technical reference resistance target 1287. If further up, it may test $1,295. If tensions release, gold could test support at 1,277. But in the end, we must pay attention to the content and situation of the China and US negotiations tomorrow.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    26360/26535 resistance
    25785/25215 support
    China is scheduled to attend the trade talks tomorrow. But the U.S. President threatened to impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The market continues to wait and see the development of Sino-China negotiations. It is expected that, technically, 26360 and 26535 are the important resistance levels at present, with reference to the support levels of 25785 and 25215. The current trend of the Dow, all rely on the trade talks, please pay attention.

    BTCUSD:
    5920 / 6100 resistance
    5650 / 5500 support
    The FOMC keeps the interest rates unchanged. China and U.S. tension, global stock markets fell; Dow still has a chance to decline. The bitcoin price could stay well and rise. Technically the bitcoin price is expected to test $6100, but keeps watching the China and U.S. trade talks.
    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
    Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
    Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

    Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     
  8. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
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    In yesterday’s market update I highlighted the AUDJPY, and how it could slide lower if risk-aversion would pick up. Today, that pair is joined by a significant breakdown in GBPJPY, and EURJPY. We also see increased tension in bond yields and gold prices. Watch the video to learn more about we think lays ahead for the financial markets.

    For more content like this, follow Alex on Twitter @AlexFX00.

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  9. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
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    Personal opinions today
    The china-us trade talks were held in Washington today, with the market watching the atmosphere and progress of the negotiations. At present, the outcome of any economic data is not important, the most important to see the results of the negotiations. If negotiations are not completed or progress is achieved in the last two days, the U.S. government is likely to impose an additional tariff of 25 per cent on Chinese imports tomorrow, undermining the global economic climate and the performance of the stock market. In any case, at this point in the lead-up to the talks, the market felt the talks had failed and the investment climate was cautious. Some equity markets saw a flight to safety, with gold and the yen rising, respectively. Crude oil prices continued to settle lower, hovering around $61. If the last bilateral relationship is improved and you temporarily raise the extra tariffs, you can change the entire market atmosphere.

    [Important financial data and events to watch]
    20:30 U.S. jobless claims for the week ended May 4‬
    20:30 U.S. trade balance for March and PPI for April‬
    20:30 Fed chairman Powell delivers the opening speech ‬
    22:00 U.S. wholesale sales monthly rate for March‬
    01:15 the next day, Fed chairman Evans speech ‬


    Today's suggestion:

    EURUSD

    1.1200/1.1215 resistance
    1.1180/1.1165 support
    European central bank President Mario Draghi speech yesterday, he said the inflation target would not be changed to avoid the risk of economic recovery. The implication of the comments is that the ECB will continue to increase its loose monetary policy and the economic forecast outlook still falls short of expectations. The euro fell on the news. The Eurozone economy outlook against the U.S. economy performed, the U.S. is better than Eurozone economic data today. Expected U.S. dollar is stronger than EUR. Technically, the EURUSD daily chart reference resistance of 1.1225. Reference support at 1.1165. During this period, investors need to keep an eye on China and U.S. trade relations. If China and U.S. relations break down and money flows to the US dollar, it may affect the decline of Euro and Swiss franc.

    GBPUSD
    1.3040/1.3075 resistance
    1.2950/1.2920 support
    The British parliament has still failed to solve the Brexit policy so far, negative effects, bearish GBP. The GBPUSD fell from 1.31 to 1.30‬, which was as low as 1.2990. In addition, due to uncertainties in China and U.S. trade negotiations, capital flows to the USD failed to change the expected trend, and the trend of the GBPUSD continued to decline. At present, we must pay attention to China and U.S. trade relations and judge the situation. The situation worsens, GBPUSD can try below 1.2950. Now, resistance refers to 1.3040 and 1.3075.

    AUDUSD
    0.6995/0.7015 resistance
    0.6965/0.6945 support
    While the RBA kept interested rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. However, trade tensions between China and the United States confidence loss in Australia's economic outlook, bearish AUD. If the trade talks fail, the trend of the AUDUSD will fall. Now the AUDUSD reference support at 0.6965, while the NZDUSD support at 0.6545.

    USDJPY
    110.45/110.70 resistance
    109.80/109.55 support
    Stocks continued to fall ahead of the trade talks, with the Nikkei down more than 1,000 points in a week and the dollar losing support against the yen at 110.05. Today the China and US trade talks coming up again. If they ease tensions, stocks could rebound, with USDJPY can try the reference resistance at 110.45 and 110.70. Instead, the trade talks failed, stocks tumbled, and the dollar fell against the yen. At present, the change in market news dominates the trend of USDJPY. It is suggested to refer to the fluctuations of Dow Jones and Nikkei index, and USDJPY follows the synchronous trend. If the stock market volatility is greater, the USDJPY volatility is greater as well.

    USDCAD
    1.3495/1.3535 resistance
    1.3435/1.3405 support
    Crude oil inventories rose, trade tensions between China and the U.S. rose, and all the news was negative for the Canadian dollar. Technical, the USDCAD trade between 1.3475. If China and US trade talks fail today, the expected drop in crude oil demand will also hurt the Canadian economy, bearish CAD. On the contrary, if the trade talks success, crude oil prices rebound, is expected to be bullish CAD, test 1.3400.

    U.S. crude futures USOIL
    60.85/60.05 support
    62.65/63.25 resistance
    U.S. President's comments have strained relations between China and the United States, and crude oil prices are lower as inventories rise. But the United States imposed a crude oil embargo on Iran, resulting in tight supplies and stable prices. Technically, the key support is $60.85, and a breakout it could test below $60.05 to $58. Any good news from the trade talks could boost crude oil prices. For the next two days, please keep an eye on the trade talks and the results of the negotiations as a way of judging the situation.

    XAUUSD
    1287/1292 resistance
    1282/1277 support
    China and US tensions, global stock market volatility, money flowing into gold, pushing up the price of the gold. If relations cannot solve this week, gold prices could up further. Technical resistance target 1287 And further would be $1,292 or $1,295. If tensions ease, gold could test support at 1,277. Please pay close attention to the content and situation of the China and US trade talks and the results of negotiations tomorrow.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US
    3026360/26535 resistance
    25785/25215 support
    China is scheduled to attend the trade talks. Before leaving, the Chinese delegation said the goal of the meeting was to reach an agreement. If the talks fail and the U.S. President earlier threatened to impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports, as expected, the investment climate could suffer, and the Dow could fall sharply. Today and tomorrow, we must keep on eyes on the negotiations between China and the United States. Technically, the current resistance levels are 26360 and 26535, while the support levels are 25785 and 25215. Now we must pay attention to the trend of the Dow Jones industrial average, the trend of the Dow Jones industrial average is mainly driven by the trade talk. It is hoped that during the talks, the US President will resolve the deadlock and boost the stock market before cancelling the implementation of the tariff increase.

    BTCUSD:

    6100 / 6265 resistance
    5850 / 5700 support
    The FOMC keeps the interest rates unchanged. China and U.S. tension, global stock markets fell; Dow still has a chance to decline. The bitcoin price could stay well and rise. Technically the bitcoin price is expected to test $6100 and $6265 but keeps watching the China and U.S. trade talks results. Positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
    Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
    Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

    Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     
  10. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    280
    Likes Received:
    3
    Personal opinions today
    U.S. and Chinese trade talks open in Washington, markets wait to see what happens. The dow was down nearly 400 points last night, as low as 25,514. Finally, the dow clawed back some of its losses after the U.S. and China said a deal was possible. But the negotiation result is not clear all the time. The US President even threatened to increase the requisition of extra tariffs on Chinese imports of American goods before the meeting. If the United States formally implements the new tariff policy as scheduled, the future market will be fraught with dangers. Global stock market, crude oil prices will face a new round of decline. Gold and the yen will become safe haven funds, led by the rise. On the contrary, progress has been made in sino-us trade talks, the US President has suspended the implementation of new tariffs, and the stock market is expected to reverse course, boosting crude oil prices.

    The balance of Britain's merchandise trade account for march, industrial and manufacturing output and Britain's first estimate of gross domestic product at an annual rate in the first quarter were released today, with important implications for sterling. Canada then reported changes in unemployment and employment. At the same time, the U.S. core inflation rate and annual rate in April were reported, and fed officials made speeches, which made the market pay more attention to the performance of U.S. inflation, which deserves attention. If core U.S. inflation rises, that's good for the dollar. Conversely, lower-than-expected core U.S. inflation could be a negative for the dollar. During the us trading session today, the market remained focused on the outcome of the china-us trade negotiations. Any positive or negative news is expected to affect global financial markets. On a positive note, stocks rose and the dollar fell. Instead, negative news could send stocks lower and the dollar higher.

    [Important financial data and events to watch]
    09:30 Reserve bank of Australia monetary policy statement‬
    14:00 Germany Balance of trade and current accounts‬
    16:30 U.K. Balance of trade account in March‬
    16:30 U.K. industrial and manufacturing output in March‬
    16:30 U.K. GDP growth rate in month and annual ‬
    20:30 U.S. core inflation rate in April‬
    20:30 Canada unemployment rate and employment change‬
    20:30 U.S. Fed Bostic speech ‬
    22:00 U.S. Fed Williams speech‬
    ** US-China trade talks


    Today's suggestion:
    EURUSD

    1.1245/1.1260 resistance
    1.1180/1.1165 support
    Trade Tensions between the United States and China, Asia fund move to the euro, pushed EURUSD hit recent high. But the market expect that core U.S. inflation will be higher than previously and reported today, and the dollar's strength, limited the euro's gains. In addition, the outcome of the US-China trade talks will affect the euro. Whether the euro can become a safe haven for Asian and US funds, pushing up the euro, is the key to the outcome of US-China trade talks today. Technically, the euro/dollar daily chart reference resistance of 1.1260 and reference support of 1.1165. If US-China relations break down, there is an opportunity for money to flow into the euro, which could boost the euro and the Swiss franc. Conversely, the euro and the Swiss franc fell.

    GBPUSD

    1.3040/1.3075 resistance
    1.2950/1.2920 support
    The British prime minister has expressed that she would step down after the Brexit completed if parliament accepts her suggested Brexit deal. Political issues continue to weigh on the political climate and economic confidence in the UK, with the pound continuing to test below 1.30, having been as low as 1.2965. In addition, the market is expected that US core inflation rate is higher than the previous value, the dollar is strong, the GBPUSD continue the downtrend, below 1.3040 resistance while rebounded. If negative sentiment continues, the GBP could technically fall below $1.2950. Current reference resistance are 1.3040 and 1.3075.

    AUDUSD

    0.7015/0.7035 resistance
    0.6965/0.6945 support
    RBA monetary policy statement shown cut core prices to 2% growth in 2020. However, the price target is still higher than the RBA interest rate of 1.5%, and the market expect that no need to cut interest rate, which is a positive for the Australian dollar. However, US-China relations remain tense, which may affect Australia's economic outlook, confidence and resource exports, and limit the AUD gains. US-China trade talks will be held again today, and the Australian dollar may fall further if the relationship eventually deteriorates. The trend of the New Zealand dollar will follow the Australian dollar. At present, the Australian dollar is focused on the support of 0.6965, while the New Zealand dollar is focused on the support of 0.6545. But any news in US-China trade talks must be noted.

    USDJPY

    110.45/110.70 resistance
    109.75/109.45 support
    The USDJPY rose after the bank of Japan released a summary of its policy meeting, which was negative for the JPY and a boost for the Nikkei index. Trade talks between China and the United States remain tense, with stocks likely to fall, and if the Nikkei falls, the USDJPY could test 109.45 again. On the contrary, any easing of tensions and results from the talks could boost stocks, with the USDJPY targets 110.45 and 110.70. At present, changes in market news dominate the trend of the USDJPY. If it is impossible to track the news, it is recommended to refer to the fluctuations of the U.S. Dow and Nikkei. If the stock market volatility, the USDJPY also volatility.

    USDCAD

    1.3495/1.3535 resistance
    1.3435/1.3405 support
    The Canadian dollar was helped yesterday by a rise in crude oil futures and a thaw in US-China trade talks could succeed and moved towards an agreement. Technical trends, the USDCAD around $1.3475, up and down. Crude oil demand is expected to fall if US-China trade talks fail, bearish for the Canadian dollar and could test 1.35 level . On the contrary, if the US-China talks to resolve the impasse, crude oil prices rebound, bullish Canadian dollar. The USDCAD could test $1.3400.

    U.S. crude futures USOIL

    60.85/60.05 support
    62.65/63.25 resistance
    Comments from US presidents have often affected US-China tensions, as well as crude oil prices. It looks like last night there was some good news in the trade talks, boosting crude oil prices. But if talks fail today, crude oil futures could fall. Technically, the key support level is $60.85, and a breakout test could be below $60.05 to $58. Please keep an eye on the US-China trade negotiations as a trend and price of the crude oil.

    XAUUSD

    1287/1292 resistance
    1282/1277 support
    The US-China tase talks become turbulent for global stock market sentiment. Gold prices could rise if relations fail. The gold price reference resistance target $1287. A further break would be $1,292 or $1,295. If tensions between the two countries ease, gold could test support at 1,277. We must keep in mind the content and situation of the China-US negotiations. If you can't track the news, keep check the U.S. Dow and Nikkei volatility.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US

    3026360/26535 resistance
    25785/25215 support
    Last night, the US President and Chinese officials said the goal of the meeting would be to reach an agreement. Relations between the two countries eased, and U.S. stocks eventually steadied, but that remains to be seen. If the talks fail, and the U.S. President goes ahead with his plan to impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports, the investment climate turns sour and the Dow could fall sharply. In any case, the market is waiting to see the final outcome of today's Chin-US negotiations to confirm where the trend is heading. Technically, resistance at 26360 and 26535, support at 25785 and 25215. Please must pay attention to China-US trade negotiations, and the good or bad news will affect the sharp fluctuations of Dow. It is hoped that during the China-US talks, the US President will resolve the deadlock and boost the stock market before cancelling the implementation of the tariff increase.

    BTCUSD
    6265 / 6450 resistance
    6050 / 5900 support
    The FOMC keeps the interest rates unchanged. China and U.S. tension, global stock markets fell; Dow still has a chance to decline, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price is expected to test $6265, the price reached. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade talks results. Positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
    Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
    Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

    Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     

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