ATFX Market Updates 2019

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

US June retail sales and core retail sales were also higher than expected, with retail sales rising and the U.S. housing market index inching up in July. From these data on inflation, the market is pricing in a lower chance of a Fed rate cut. German and Eurozone economic sentiment continued to fall, with UK unemployment rate and jobless claims rising in June. The Bank of England may need to cut interest rates as the European central bank and Bank of England maintain loose monetary policy, market estimates suggest. When the dollar strengthened, European currencies fell sharply.

In addition, the US President once again stressed that additional tariffs on Chinese imports worth 325 billion dollars could be imposed at any time, showing that the US President is once again dissatisfied with the China and US trade talks. The U.S. President's comments weighed on the sentiment of stock market, which affected the performance of global stock markets and Asian currencies.

Important dat today, the European inflation data released today, including the UK June CPI and retail price index monthly rate, the Eurozone June CPI monthly rate and annual final value, market expectations fell from the previous month, contributing to the recent decline in British pound and the euro. If the UK and Eurozone inflation data turn out to be in line with expectations or beat market expectations, the euro and British pound will be bullish, and even the Swiss franc will be bullish. Canadian inflation and core CPl and manufacturing data in the evening are expected to weigh on the currency ahead of the release. Also tomorrow, the federal reserve releases its beige book regional economic report at 2 a.m. Because the beige book is likely to shed more light on the real economy and inflation, the outlook for each fed district branch will affect the fed's interest-rate decisions at the end of the month. Believe before and after the release of the dollar, U.S. stocks and commodity prices volatility, worth paying attention to.

[Important financial data and events]

16:30 UK CPI and Retail price monthly rates for June
17:00 Eurozone CPI for June
20:30 US the permits and housing starts in June
20:30 Canada CPI rate of June
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 12
The next day, at 02:00, the federal reserve releases its beige book of economic conditions

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1205/1.1185 support
1.1235/1.1255 resistance
Manufacturing rose in line with expectations and U.S. retail sales beat expectations. The euro fell to near 1.12 after the euro zone's seasonally adjusted trade account for may and the ZEW economic sentiment index for July fell. Eurozone consumer prices for June were expected to be flat today at both a monthly and annual rate, but there are opportunities for a fall. If the euro zone data are in line with expectations, it could be positive for the euro. Tomorrow morning, at 2 a.m., the federal reserve releases its beige book regional economic report. Technically, the key support level for the euro is 1.1185 and the key resistance level is 1.1255. It is worth noting that the performance and trend of the euro often affect the Swiss franc indirectly.

GBPUSD
1.2455/1.2475 resistance
1.2370/1.2350 support
The UK yesterday reported a rise in June unemployment rate and jobless claims, disappointing and worrying about the country's economic outlook, adding to fears about the outcome of the next prime minister next week. June CPI and rpi data released today reflect UK inflation and the direction of UK monetary policy. In addition, at 2 a.m. tomorrow, the federal reserve will release its beige book regional economic condition. Technically, British pound has broken through its end-2018 low, and if it falls further, it may exceed 1.2350 support, which is worth watching. If the dollar changes and the British pound rises tomorrow morning, watch for resistance of 1.2475 or 1.2505

AUDUSD
0.7035/0.7050 resistance
0.6990/0.6975 support
Federal reserve chairman Powell left open the possibility of a rate cut, U.S. retail sales beat expectations in June, and market expectations for the fed to cut interest rates by the end of the month declined, indirectly limiting the Australian dollar's upside and adjusting for declines. Tomorrow morning, at 2 am, the federal reserve will release its beige book. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the resistance 0.7035 and 0.7050. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, continue to influence the trend of the New Zealand dollar. Technically, NZDUSD suggests watching for the fed's beige book and how to affect the NZDUSD.

USDJPY
107.85/107.65 support
108.35/108.55 resistance
Federal reserve Powell said to maintain rate cut expectations, limit the dollar. US retail sales better-than-expected, had boosted the dollar against the yen. Unfortunately, the US President once again made negative comments on China and US trade deals, threatening to impose additional tariffs on other Chinese imports, affected stocks market and USDJPY fell. Tomorrow morning, at 2 a.m., the federal reserve releases its beige book. The contents may affected the market sentiment and the USDJPY.Technically, 107.80 and 107.65 are short-term supports, with resistance of 108.35 and 108.55 above. Watch the dow and nikkei to assess the dollar against the yen.

USDCAD
1.3055/1.3030 support
1.3095/1.1315 resistance
The monthly rate of existing home sales in Canada fell in June, and today Canada released the monthly CPI for June. In addition, API crude oil inventories reported the stocks rose sharply from last week, crude oil futures prices fell, the Canadian dollar fell. Today's focus on Canadian inflation data, CPI and the beige book report from FED, worth watching the U.S. dollar volatility, indirectly affecting the Canadian dollar. In addition, it is recommended to keep an eye on the trend of crude oil prices, which may also affected the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
58.45/59.00 resistance
57.10/56.45 support
Crude oil futures fell as U.S. President negative comments on U.S. trade with China and change on crude oil demand expectations. Yesterday it pointed out that if the crude oil market is affected by other factors, crude oil futures prices fall. The current technical break through the reference support level of $59.00 and $58.45 that will be the new resistance. Reference support bits can be noted for 57.10 and 56.45 support. Note the beige book, which is likely to reflect the outlook for U.S. manufacturing and industrial production, which could affect crude oil demand expectations and the prices.

XAUUSD
1414/1419 resistance
1401/1396 support
U.S. inflation data rose more than expected in June, retail sales also beat market expectations in June, and gold prices fell, pulling back US$1,400 support. Markets are now waiting for the beige book, which provides further confirmation of the state of the economy and inflation. The market may be used to assess the chances of the Fed fund rate cut at the end of the month, and gold prices may fluctuate again.

U.S. Dow Jones futures US30
27425/27515 resistance
27220/27095 support
U.S. inflation and retail sales rose in June, while economic data showed tentative improvement and market expectations for a rate cut by the end of the month fell. The Dow was drop by negative comments from the US President. Today's focus on the US beige book, the content can further confirm the state of the US economy. Ahead of the beige book, the Dow's gains were limited, noting the recent correction in high resistance. A positive outlook in the beige book, combined with earnings from U.S. listed companies, could boost the Dow. And vice versa.

BTCUSD:
9750 / 9950 resistance
9050 / 8850 support
US economy growth over the market expected, the Fed may not cut rate in this end of month. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Technically, the bitcoin price broke US$10,000 support and fell last night, over the first targeted US$9750 key support. Now the references support, looking at US$9050 or 8850 support. Keep watching the beige book tomorrow morning, and the bitcoin price may fluctuate again.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

The US President said to impose additional tariffs on us $325 billion worth of Chinese imports at any time. Although the Chinese government has continued to restraint and continue to engage in negotiations, but Trump’s speech affected the investment climate, the performance of global stock markets and the downward on Asian currencies.

The federal reserve releases its beige book economic report. The beige book is likely to provide further hints to worries about the U.S. economy decline and the possibility that deflation. The fed's Beige book outlook suggests an opportunity for interest-rate cuts at the end of the month. The dollar fell, U.S. stocks fell on fears, crude oil futures also fell and gold rose on risk aversion.

Today's recommendations focus on UK retail sales, U.S. jobless claims last week and the Philadelphia fed manufacturing index for July. Tomorrow, Japan announces national CPl for June. Market expectations fell on an annualized basis and were flat on a monthly basis, with the dollar expected to rise against the yen.

[Important financial data and events]

09:30 Australian unemployment rate in June
14:00 Swiss trade account for June
16:30 UK monthly retail sales rate in June
20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims last week
20:30 US Philadelphia fed manufacturing index for July
22:00 US leading indicator for June
The next day, at 2:15 The federal reserve Williams spoke
The next day 07:30 Japan June national CPl, core CPl

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1205/1.1185 support
1.1255/1.1270 resistance
The euro rose slightly after the federal reserve's beige book showed an uncertain outlook and the fed may cut interest rates. Today no Eurozone data release, mainly on the U.S. data, which is more interesting to watch for jobless claims. Technically, the first major support level for the euro is 1.1185, but there are short-term opportunities to challenge resistance at 1.1255 or 1.1270. It is worth noting that the performance of the euro indirectly affects the Swiss franc.

GBPUSD
1.2455/1.2485 resistance
1.2380/1.2350 support
Markets are worried about the outlook for the UK economy and are even more worried about the outcome of the next prime minister next Tuesday. But yesterday, the pound rebounded from a low of 1.2380 after UK consumer and retail price indices beat expectations for June. Pound rose after the federal reserve's beige book regional economic report showed an uncertain outlook and the fed cut interest rates. Estimated from the market data expectations, the trend may rise after falling. Technically, the pound still has reasons to fall, after yesterday 1.2380 support, can further reference 1.2350 support. Reference resistance level 1.2455/1.2485 resistance.

AUDUSD
0.7025/0.7040 resistance
0.6990/0.6975 support
The federal reserve possibility of a rate cut, with markets pricing in a lower chance of Fed rate cuts by the end of the month, indirectly keeping the Australian dollar higher. Australia's June unemployment rate was followed in the evening by U.S. jobless claims last week. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the resistance of 0.7025 and 0.7040. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, continue to influence the trend of the New Zealand dollar. Technically, New York is adjusting after a failure to challenge resistance of 0.6750 and suggests watching for a break or not.

USDJPY
107.65/107.50 support
108.35/108.55 resistance
The dollar fell against the yen after the US President threatened to impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports, affected investment sentiment and increasing risk aversion after negative comments on the trade talks. A sharp improvement in Japan's trade account also helped boost the yen today. After the release of the data, it is worth watching the us dollar's steady rise to 108 against the yen. Technically, 107.65 and 107.50 are important short-term supports, with resistance of 108.35 and 108.55 above. Watch the Dow and Nikkei to assess the USDJPY.

USDCAD
1.3045/1.3030 support
1.3095/1.1315 resistance
The monthly rate of existing home sales in Canada fell in June. Yesterday, Canada reported that the monthly rate of CPI fell in June. In addition, U.S. and China trade talks stalled crude oil futures prices fell, the Canadian dollar has the opportunity to fall, the USDCAD has the opportunity to rise. Today, the U.S. jobless claims last week and the Philadelphia federal reserve for July are worth watching for U.S. dollar volatility, which indirectly affects the Canadian dollar. More importantly, keep an eye on the trend of crude oil prices, which may directly affect the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures USOIL
57.10/58.30 resistance
56.40/55.90 support
Oil prices were affected yesterday by a sharp increase in crude inventories at the us API and EIA compared with last week. In addition, crude oil futures prices fell again after the US President's negative comments on China and US trade talks further affected oil demand expectations. Yesterday expected crude oil price support level, has reached the 56.45 support target. If the number of U.S. jobless claims last week and the Philadelphia federal reserve bank's manufacturing index for July are positive for U.S. economic growth expectations, the indirect benefit on oil prices is worth watching.

XAUUSD
1429/1433 resistance
1417/1413 support
The federal reserve's beige book said the U.S. economy and inflation conditions were likely to slow, economic activity continued to suffer from the trade war with China, and the fed's regional branches considered supporting rate cuts. Expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut stalled trade talks with China, and stocks fell, boosting gold. If the dollar finds support today in U.S. weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia fed's manufacturing index for July, gold prices could adjust, and vice versa.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27225/27395 resistance
27095/26880 support
Dow continued to be affected by the US President's negative comments on the China and US trade talks and a decline in the investment climate in the global stock market. If the sentiment doesn't improve, the Dow could fall. Technical references support 27,095 or 26,880.

BTCUSD:
10350 / 10850 resistance
9550 / 9050 support
US economy growth over the market expected, but the China market and US trade talk affected the market sentiment. The Fed still have chance to cut rate in this end of month. It is suppose bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin. Technically, the bitcoin price maybe back to US$10,000 above. Now the references support, change to US$9550 or 9050 support.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

GBPUSD Triggers Bearish Signal

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

The New York fed chairman William said monetary policy should cut rates as soon as possible, saying it was better to take "precautionary measures" than wait for a disaster.
Expectations of a rate cut sent Treasury yields sharply lower, with the yield on the closely linked two-year note falling 8.2 basis points to 1.754% and that on the benchmark 10-year note falling 3.2 basis points to 2.029%. After the comments, CME rate watch showed the odds of the fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in July surged to 70 percent from 34 percent on Wednesday. Gold peaked at $1,452, its highest since May 2013.

Oil prices fell as U.S. - China relations stalled, depressed global stock markets and expectations of a recovery in oil production in the gulf of Mexico weighed on sentiment. WTI crude fell 2.6 percent, while U.S. crude oil futures fell as low as $54.90 a barrel, while brent crude fell 2.7 percent to $61.36 a barrel. But the outlook for U.S. - Iran relations is uncertain, tensions in the Middle East are at risk of escalating, and oil prices are expected to support or rebound.

Today's focus is on German June PPI, Eurozone current account and Canada retail sales. As for the dollar's important direction and the price of other major currencies against the dollar and gold, the recommendation must pay attention to the July consumer confidence index of the university of Michigan.

[Important financial data and events]

14:00 German monthly PPI rate in June
16:00 Eurozone current account for May
20:30 Canada retail sales in May
22:00 Michigan consumer confidence index for July

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1270/1.1285 resistance
1.1235/1.1220 support
The dollar index fell and the euro rose as the federal reserve's beige book and fed officials said they expected the fed to cut interest rates by the end of the month. Today's German June PPI and euro zone may current account forecasts are likely to be negative. The evening was dominated by the preliminary reading of the Michigan consumer confidence index. If the data comes in higher than market expectations of 98.5, the dollar has a chance to rebound. Technically, the euro is challenging resistance at 1.1270 and 1.1285. But if the eurozone economy weakens and U.S. economic data beats expectations, the euro could break through resistance and fall. It is worth noting that the performance of the euro indirectly affects the trend of the Swiss franc.

GBPUSD
1.2555/1.2575 resistance
1.2480/1.2450 support
The UK retail sales rate for June beat market expectations, rising to 1 per cent from an estimate of minus 0.3 per cent. In addition, Fed officials recommended a rate cut, and expectations of a half-point cut at the end of the month rose, pound rebounded. Technically, there are still reasons for the pound to fall, with markets pricing in a strong chance by hard Brexit. Next Tuesday, the next UK PM announced. Due to the negative impact, the pound has the opportunity to fall, again dip 1.2380 support. Resistance level 1.2555/1.2575 is currently recommended.

AUDUSD
0.7080/0.7095 resistance
0.7030/0.7015 support
Fed officials advised the fed to cut interest rates, which the market expects to increase by the end of the month, indirectly the Australian dollar up. The market is waiting for European markets to digest the news, today's focus on the U.S. Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary results. The Australian dollar could fall if European markets digest the fed's rate cut and U.S. consumer confidence initially beat expectations. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the resistance 0.7080 and 0.7095. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, the same impact on the trend of NZ dollar.

USDJPY
107.45/107.30 support
107.95/108.10 resistance
The US President is making negative comments on the China and US trade talks, threatening to ask for extra tariffs on Chinese imports. Tensions between the United States and Iran have risen, adding to risk aversion in the market, the general global stock market fell, the dollar fell against the yen trend. Technically, USDJPY references 107.45 and 107.30 are important support in the short term, with resistance of 107.95 and 108.15 above. If the US Michigan consumer confidence index over the market expected, it will be bullish for the dollar, and it is worth watching the Dow and Nikkei up. If the related indexes rise, it is expected that the dollar will rise against the yen.

USDCAD
1.3015/1.2990 support
1.3065/1.3080 resistance
The monthly rate of existing home sales in Canada fell in June.
Canada reported that the CPI fell in June. In addition, the China and US trade talks stalled, oil supplies resumed after a storm in Mexico, oil futures fell and the U.S. dollar rose against the Canadian dollar. In addition, tensions between China and Iran and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut suggest watching oil prices, which could directly affect the Canadian dollar. Crude oil prices rose, giving a chance to boost the Canadian dollar, which broke through 1.2990 support.

US crude oil futures
57.15/58.30 resistance
55.40/54.90 support
The US President negative comments on China and US trade have affected crude oil demand. Oil futures fell again as supplies resumed after the storm in Mexico. But tensions with Iran and rising expectations of a fed rate cut could boost crude prices. If the Michigan consumer confidence index beats market expectations by 98.5, it could lead to bullish oil prices. The current recommendation is to see resistance of 57.15 or 58.30 if U.S. crude futures remain above support of 55.40 or 54.90.

XAUUSD
1448/1453 resistance
1437/1432 support
Fed officials say interest rates should be cut early before the economy falters. Expectations of a cut in U.S. interest rates are rising, with the odds of the federal reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points in July surging to 70 percent from 34 percent on Wednesday, according to CME rate watch. COMEX gold contracts jumped 1.7 percent, pushing gold prices higher. If the Michigan consumer confidence index beats market expectations by 98.5, the chances of the fed cutting interest rates will cool down and gold prices may adjust. Otherwise, it will rise.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27420/27515 resistance
27235/27090 support
Fed officials said interest rates should be cut early before the recession, raising expectations of a rate cut and putting a positive on the dow. However, the stagnation of china-us relations and the uncertain situation in the us and Iran may affect the decline of investment sentiment. If the investment climate does not improve, the dow could test 27235 or 27090 support. If the university of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index beats market expectations by a hefty 98.5 percent and the fed's rate cut cools, the dow could adjust to lower levels at the top. Technically, the 27420 is a recent series of high resistance, is testing the possibility of breakthrough.

BTCUSD:
10850 / 11150 resistance
10050 / 9850 support
Yesterday mentions here, the US economy growth over the market expected, but the China market and US trade talk affected the market sentiment. The Fed still have chance to cut rate in this end of month. It is suppose bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin. Technically, the bitcoin price maybe back to US$10,000 above. Now the dovish speech from Fed officials, Fed officials said interest rates should be cut early before the recession that will attract fund inflow to crypto currencies. If its continued and the noise to be Fed cut rate, the bitcoin probably test US12000.


Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Stock Markets Trade Into Support

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

The FOMC meeting held next week, followed earlier by US retail sales and Michigan consumer confidence rose, the market expected that the fed would cut rates less than 0.5% at the end of the month, US dollar strength. Meanwhile, the election of a British prime minister tomorrow and the European central bank's interest rate meeting on Thursday. It’s seems Europe fund flows into the dollar.

Today's market attention, Canada wholesale sales and the U.S. Chicago Fed national activity index. More importantly, the conservative government will announce the British prime minister tomorrow and make a speech. At that point, the new prime minister is likely to announce his policy on Brexit, and if the prime minister shows that extending the Brexit deadline could bearish the pound.

[Important financial data and events]

20:30 Canada wholesale sales in May
20:30 US Chicago Fed national activity index for June

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1230/1.1245 resistance
1.1190/1.1175 support
U.S. economic and inflation data came in higher than market expectations, with the dollar rebounding after the fed cut interest rates by less than half a percentage point. The European central bank (ECB) announced its policy decision on Thursday, with monetary easing expectations and a rise in the money supply, bearish for the euro. Last week this analysis, the EURUSD pointed to technical test 1.1270 and 1.1285. The Eurozone economy was weak, U.S. economic data was better than expected, and the euro failed to break through resistance and fell. The weakness of the euro indirectly affected the Swiss franc. Currently, the euro is testing support for 1.1190. If pound losses intensify, that could affect the EUR or breakout support at 1.1190.

GBPUSD
1.2525/1.2545 resistance
1.2480/1.2460 support
Fed officials recommended a rate cut, but the U.S. economy, inflation and the labor market remained positive in June, with the fed likely to cut rates by less than half a percentage point at the end of the month and the dollar's losses pared. In addition, the British conservative party leader and new prime minister tomorrow, if Johnson win, the negative impact of pound, it has the opportunity to test 1.2380 support. Resistance levels of 1.2525 or 1.2545 are currently recommended. The first phase supports bit references 1.2480 and 1.2460.

AUDUSD
0.7045/0.7065 resistance
0.7025/0.7005 support
The federal reserve would be cut interest rates by just a quarter percent at the end of the month, not half percent. The dollar lost ground and the Australian dollar indirectly fell. The market is awaiting a speech tomorrow from RBA assistant chairman Kent and the Australia consumer confidence index. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the downward trend in AUDUSD, 0.7045 and 0.7065 resistance. First support bit ranges 0.7025 and 0.7005. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, the same impact on the trend of the dollar.

USDJPY
107.75/107.45 support
108.30/108.60 resistance
The dollar rose as market estimates narrowed the fed's rate cut at the end of the month. Nikkei index rose as the country's prime minister won nearly half the seats in a parliamentary election and the dollar gained support against the yen. Technically, the dollar has hit its first target resistance of 107.95 and 108.15 yen. It is worth noting that if the Dow and Nikkei performance rise, the related index rise, will be expected to lead the dollar against the yen trend. Recent resistance against the yen, 108.30 and 108.60 is worth watching.

USDCAD
1.3035/1.3015 support
1.3085/1.3105 resistance
The Canada existing home sales fell in June. Yesterday, Canada reported that the monthly rate of CPI fell in June. Canadian retail sales also fell in May, well below market expectations. Canada wholesale sales expected fell at a monthly rate in May. Ahead of the results, the Canadian dollar may continue to be bearish. If crude oil prices rise, there are opportunities to boost the Canadian dollar. At present, the technical trend, relatively concerned about 1.3085 and 1.3105 resistance.

US crude oil futures
57.15/57.40 resistance
55.40/54.90 support
The lack of progress in China and US trade talks, combined with negative comments from the U.S. President, is still weighing on oil demand expectations. If the tension between Iran and US eases, crude oil supplies rise, the estimated negative crude oil prices. Current technical trend, U.S. crude oil futures remain above 55.40 and 54.90 support, the trend is expected to test 57.15 or challenge 57.40 resistance. But the overall trend is still pessimistic, note the downside risk.

XAUUSD
1430/1434 resistance
1415/1411 support
Last Thursday, the COMEX contract jumped 1.7 per cent, pushing gold prices to around $1,453. After the Michigan consumer confidence index was higher than previous readings, and the federal reserve clarified its rate cut comments, and the market estimated a narrower rate cut, while the dollar rose, gold prices adjusted sharply. Coming this week, the US releases a number of key data, and reflecting the FOMC decision, note the gold price would fluctuations. The recommendation focuses on key support at $1,411 and resistance at $1,443.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27345/27420 resistance
27090/27010 support
U.S. Michigan consumer confidence rose, inflation data in line up, and market estimates of the fed's rate cut narrowed, bearish Dow. In addition, China and US relations still can not recover, and the situation between the US and Iran tensions uncertainty, which affects investment sentiment. The Dow future broke through 27235 and testing 27090 support. Technically, the recent trend of the Dow test resistance failure, investment sentiment down, Dow is down and testing 27090 support. If this support is break, the next level of reference support is 27010.

BTCUSD:
10850 / 11150 resistance
10050 / 9850 support
US economy growth over the market expected. The Fed still have chance to cut rate in this end of month. It is suppose bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin. Technically, the bitcoin price back to US$10,000 above. Now the dovish speech from Fed officials, Fed officials said interest rates should be cut early before the recession that will attract fund inflow to crypto currencies. If its noise continued, the Fed will cut rate in this end of month. Assuming the bitcoin probably test US12000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

FACEBOOK EARNINGS PREVIEW: Will Ads Revenue Lift the Share to its All-Time High?

The Facebook stock price increased by almost 55 percent this year and erased all of its 2018 losses; despite the growth of Facebook decelerated as legal costs and higher investments pressured its earnings, but the Instagram expansion largely offset those worries. On July 15, the price closed at $204.87, with a 52-week range between $123.02 to $218.62. The market capitalization for the stock stands at 582.059B with an average traded volume at 17,187,543 shares. As we can see in the table below the FB stock has outperformed the S&P 500.


Facebook Metrics
There are now around 2.7 billion people using Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, or Messenger every month, and more than 2.1 billion people are using at least one app every day. Facebook’s daily average user (DAU) reached 1.56 billion, up 8% compared to last year, led by growth in Indonesia, India, and the Philippines. These countries represent approximately 66% of the 2.38 billion monthly active users in March. Monthly Average Users grew 179M or 8% compared to last year. The company estimates that on average, over 2.1 billion people used at least one of its applications on a daily basis in March and around 2.7 billion people were active on a monthly basis. The numbers show that the cross-selling between apps increased quarter after quarter.


Facebook Financials
The Q1 2019 total revenue for Facebook was $15.1 billion, up 26 percent or 30 percent on a constant currency basis, as the company faces an increasing FX risk. Q1 total advertising revenue was $14.9 billion, an increase of 26%. In terms of Local-regional advertising revenue growth, the USA and Canada were strongest at 30%, followed by the Asia-Pacific at 28% while the Rest of the World came at 23%. Europe grew at a slower pace, about 21% and was impacted in part by forex headwinds, and also from the EU GDPR rule. On the cost side, Facebook total expenses were $11.8 billion, up 80%, because of a $3 billion accrual taken in connection with the inquiry of the Federal Trade Commission into Facebook’s platform and user data practices. This matter finally cost the company $5 billion and is a number that we will not see in this quarter’s results.

The net income came in at $2.4 billion, or $0.85/per share. FB agreed to pay a fine of $5 billion to FTC (one time) that will reduce the total earnings by 5B and EPS by 1.04 dollars. Capital expenditures were $4 billion, driven by investments in data centers, servers, office facilities, and network infrastructure. The company generated $5.3 billion in free cash flow and ended Q1 2019 with $45.2 billion in cash and investments. The mobile ad revenue grew 30% year over year to $13.9 billion, accounting for almost 93% of FB total ad revenue. Facebook and Instagram feed ads make up the bulk of FB income today. I believe that to continue, the Stories segment is an increasingly important and promising growth opportunity.


Facebook adds New Products…
The company recently announced “Checkout” on Insta, so when members find a product they love in a post or story, they can buy it without leaving the app. The company started with 23 brands in the US including Adidas and MAC. Checkout will revolutionize e-commerce because members don’t have to transfer to an e-shop or to the company website, they can buy instantly saving a lot of time.


..and enters new Markets
Facebook is entering the cryptocurrency world with Libra. Facebook doesn’t own Libra or run the crypto consortium, which is led by a nonprofit organization in Switzerland. FB is developing a virtual wallet called Calibra, which will be integrated into Messenger and WhatsApp. Libra’s value is connected to existing fiat currencies to reduce volatility, and that is a big advantage versus bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.


Risk is Here to Stay
The threats for Facebook business is not over yet. The company still faces an SEC probe regarding Cambridge Analytica, a criminal investigation into its data deals in New York, and a lawsuit from the Housing and Urban Development Department over housing discrimination in targeted ads. On the other hand, Facebook still has a lot of room for growth in the coming years as the monetization of its apps move faster. The company has barely taken its first steps in terms of monetizing Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook Messenger.


The Technical View
FB’s stock price extended its gains over the previous trading sessions and climbed above the $200-mark. At the time of writing, it continues to head higher in support of a positive short-term picture. The bias in the short-term looks bullish asindicated by the MACD which is strengthening its positive momentum. FB price holds above all the major daily moving averages and an attempt to all-time high can’t be ruled from the current level. A sign of concern is that the RSI has reached 69.33 and is soon to reach overbought levels which might trigger some profit-taking.

On the price trading lower, the stock might find support near the 194.33 handle which is the 20-day moving average.

The next support levels are coming from the 186.46 barrier the 50-day moving average and the 179.91 the 100-day
moving average.

On the upside, as the bulls are in control, an advance could stop at $110 before moving north to $218, the all-time high
for the stock.

Concluding, the market bias is bullish however, the stock is close to all-time high and needs a strong catalyst which might
be the upcoming earnings report to move to unchartered territory.

Facebook will report earnings on July 24. Market consensus estimates revenue of $16.5B with $1.85 EPS. For the full-year
forecasts are for $7.69 EPS.


Consensus EPS Estimates

Written by Nikolas Papas, Market Strategist, InvestingCube.com and ATFX

Nikolas Papas has been in the finance industry for over fifteen years in roles spanning across. Europe and USA and has acquired in-depth knowledge and experience within many aspects of the financial markets. Nikolas has worked for some of Europe's leading brokers, as an equity Analyses, and a trader managing accounts for both private and corporate investors. He enjoys both the fundamental and technical aspects of trading and focuses on stock markets and all FX majors. Currently, Nikolas provides analysis and comments on online financial publications. He studied and completed a degree in Economics (BSc), and Finance (MSc).

AT Global Markets UK Ltd (ATFX UK) takes no responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions expressed do not reflect those of ATFX UK. This information does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. You should seek independent advice before making investmentdecisions. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

This week, the market will be watching U.S. manufacturing indexes for major cities, manufacturing PMI, existing and new home sales, durable goods orders, and the U.S. GDP in the second quarter. Recording memory, U.S. economic data has shown steady gains and job growth has returned to normal. Adding to the fed's clarification on the interest rate cut level , the market is pricing in a rate cut of no more than 50 basis points at the end of the month, correction the dollar loss.

The British morning time, the new U.K. prime minister result announced then the prime minister speech today or tomorrow. European central bank monetary decision on Thursday. Uncertainty sentiment send safe-haven flows to the dollar.

If the new British prime minister's comments trigger market expectations of a hard Brexit and risk on, watch for further declines in pound and the euro.

[Important financial data and events]

18:00 UK CBI industrial order in July
21:00 U.S. FHFA home price index for May
22:00 U.S. existing homes sold in June
22:00 U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index for July
U.K. morning Britain new prime minister announces
Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude inventories

Today suggestion :

EURUSD
1.1225/1.1260 resistance
1.1190/1.1155 support
U.S. economic and inflation data turned out to be higher than market expectations, with the fed cutting rates by less than 50 basis points, correction the dollar loss. Other negative impact of the euro, the European central bank will announce the result of interest rate on Thursday, and the market generally believes that there will be adding the new QE of monetary policy, the rise of money supply, the bearish the euro. In addition, Britain announced the new British prime minister today, and after taking official speaks. The risk of a hard Brexit could push European currencies lower. The weakness of the euro has indirectly affected the Swiss franc. The euro is now testing support for 1.1190 and 1.1155. If pound losses intensify, the euro could break through 1.1190 and test 1.1155.

GBPUSD
1.2505/1.2545 resistance
1.2420/1.2380 support
Announcing the conservative party leader and the new British prime minister in U.K. morning, the pound is likely to take a bigger hit if Johnson wins, with the pound having a chance to test to 1.2380. Watch for comments from the new prime minister today and any time tomorrow. If the new prime minister emphasizes a no-deal Brexit with the EU by the end of October, the pound could move down. The first support levels for reference as 1.2420 and 1.2380. On the other hand, the talks softly and show more room for negotiation with EU, favor the pound, keeping an eye on resistance levels of 1.2505 or 1.2545.

AUDUSD
0.7035/0.7055 resistance
0.7015/0.6995 support
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points at the end of the month, while the Australian dollar has fallen indirectly. The U.S. dollar rose ahead of U.S. economic data this week, believing the Australian dollar will remain weak. If the trade talks between China and US make progress, the Australian dollar will rise. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the downward trend, 0.7035 and 0.7055 as references resistance. The first support ranges are 0.7015 and 0.6995. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, the same impact on the trend of the NZ dollar.

USDJPY
107.85/107.55 support
108.30/108.60 resistance
The dollar rose as market estimates narrowed the fed's rate cut at the end of the month. The Dow was up last night, Nikkei was up 1% today opening, USDJPY followed rose. The Dow and Nikkei are technically noteworthy. If the related index rises, will lead the USDJPY upward. For references resistance, 108.30 and 108.60 is worth watching.

USDCAD
1.3085/1.3055 support
1.3145/1.3175 resistance
Canada retail sales fell more than expected in May, to minus 1.8 percent from the forecast of 0.5 percent, down from 1.6 percent in April. In addition, crude oil futures prices did not rebound, the USD strength, the Canadian dollar rise stalled. Canada has no data this week and is expected to be passive. If crude oil prices rose, there are opportunities to boost the Canadian dollar. Weak U.S. economic data could lead to a stronger Canadian dollar. Refers to the technical trend yesterday, the USDCAD attention 1.3085 and 1.3105 resistance, last night were broken. Currently testing 1.3145 recent resistance and rebound wave adjustment 38.2%, 1.3175. Note today's U.S. economic data performance, indirect impact on the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
57.00/57.40 resistance
55.50/54.90 support
The lack of progress in China and US trade talks, combined with negative comments from the U.S. President, is still weighing on oil demand expectations. If the tension between Iran and China eases, crude oil supplies rise, the estimated negative crude oil prices. The market is waiting to see how many U.S. API crude stocks there will be tomorrow, and a big increase in inventories could weigh against crude prices. At present, the technical trend, the U.S. crude oil futures maintain 55.40 and 54.90 support above, the trend is expected to test 57.00 or challenge 57.40 resistance.

XAUUSD
1426/1430 resistance
1415/1411 support
With the federal reserve now expected to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points by the end of July, COMEX gold contracts tumbled, declined the price of gold to around $1,415. If the market continues to estimate the rate cut narrow, the expected us economic data and results are strong, the dollar rose, gold prices may expand to go lower. Watching the key U.S. data releases this week that could serve as a guide to the fed's interest rate outlook next week. The price of gold price volatility. The recommendation focuses on significant support at $1411 and resistance at $1430.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27345/27420 resistance
27090/27010 support
U.S. consumer confidence up, inflation data slightly up, and market estimates of the fed's expected rate cut only 0.25% not 0.5%, suppose negative for Dow. Technically, the recent trend of the Dow failed to test the high resistance. If sentiment continues to decline, the Dow could test 27090 support. If this support would broke, the next level of reference support is 27010. For now, keep an eye on the technical resistance ranges 27345 and 27420.

BTCUSD:
10650 / 10950 resistance
9900 / 9500 support
US economy growth over expected. The Fed maybe only cut 0.25% interest rate in this end of month, less then 0.5% before. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Also, the dovish speech from Fed officials, crypto currencies demand declined. If its noise continued, the Fed will cut only 0.25% rate as expected in this end of month. Assuming the bitcoin probably test US9500. But investors should keep watching the US data in this week to compare the market sentiment.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Will Gold Prices Be Able to Recover From Their Sharp Drop?

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

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[Kelly Yeung]

Forex: EURUSD Could Breakout on the ECB Rate Meeting This Thursday - ATFX

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.