ATFX Market Updates 2019

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 30

Personal opinions today:

This week, the market will focus on the U.S. labour department's September non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average wages, which will take the pulse of the U.S. economy. Non-farm payrolls are expected to have risen to nearly 180,000 in September, with the unemployment rate flat and average wages rising. The market is watching the US private non-farm payrolls report on Wednesday, analyzing and evaluate the official non-farm payrolls data.

RBA rate decision tomorrow. The reserve bank of Australia is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 1 to 0.75%, further challenging the lowest level in Australia's history.

Australia's economic data have been disappointing, with the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates twice this year by 25 basis points, or 50 basis points, in June and July. The past quarter has not been as good as Australia's economic data. Since July, the Australian dollar has been on a downward trend. Despite the RBA hawkish remarks in September, investment confidence back in the Australian dollar was once stable. Unfortunately, as the trade war between China and the us continues to affect Austral exports and the domestic economy continues to slow down, the RBA is expected to cut interest rates again.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

15:00 Switzerland KOF economic leading indicator *
15:55 German unemployment rate in September ***
16:30 UK Q2 current account and annualized GDP ***
16:30 Bank of England mortgage approval *
17:00 Eurozone unemployment rate in August
20:00 Germany CPI for September ***
21:45 U.S. September PMI in Chicago **
22:30 U.S. September Dallas Fed business activity index ***

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.0955/1.0970 resistance
1.0900/1.0885 support
The President of the European central bank, Mario Draghi, has made a speech, dovish comments affect the Euro investment confidence. The Euro came downward after European economic data failed to meet market expectations. Today focus on the German September unemployment change and unemployment rate and the German September CPI monthly rate. If released a growth CPI rate, bullish Euro. Technical trend, the Euro trend is weak, significant resistance further down to 1.0970. Refer to support 1.0900 and 1.0885. Keep an eye out for a possible bullish to the euro if European economic data are positive today and U.S. economic data is weak.

Pound against dollar
1.2335/1.2360 resistance
1.2270/1.2240 support
The uncertainty situation in the UK, as well as US economic growth bearish pound, which fell to 1.22. Unless the pound recovered 1.2360 resistance, the trend would change. Note that the UK second-quarter current account and final annualized GDP figures stronger or weak U.S. economic data could bullish pound in the short term.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6775/0.6795 resistance
0.6735/0.6715 support
Australian dollar trend continues to adjust wave, explore to 0.6715 and 0.6685 support. If after RBA interest rate decision tomorrow , the Australian dollar trend has an opportunity to reverse, it is expected to test 0.6815. The vice ministers of trade talks between China and the US on October 10, after the US President's remarks on the trade talks, may boost investment sentiment and the Australian and New Zealand dollars would become bullish.

Dollar/yen
108.05/108.30 resistance
107.70/107.45 support
The high-level trade talk between China and the United States, scheduled for Oct 10, improved investment sentiment, lifted Dow and Nikkei futures and bullish the dollar against yen, break 107.85 resistance. If this week's expected U.S. job data non-farm pay would continue growth and the Dow rise, the dollar could follow up against the yen. Conversely, if the Dow and Nikkei futures fell, the dollar against the yen may test support.

U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
1.3280/1.3305 resistance
1.3225/1.3205 support
Crude oil prices rallied after hitting another low of $55.5, support the Canadian dollar. The market is looking forward to the Oct. 10. The high-level trade talks, which indirectly helped the rise in crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar. Technically, the initial target is 1.3225 and 1.3205. But at present, the international oil price situation is not clear, and the crude oil price falls the momentum has not changed, the suggestion USDCAD first looks up 1.3280 or 1.3305 resistance.

US crude oil futures
57.55/58.05 resistance
55.55/55.05 support
Oil futures prices are expected to rise as the Progress in trade talks between China, and the United States is going well. Because of that bullish crude oil prices. If U.S. economic data is weak, crude oil prices will be fell. Watch today's Chicago purchasing managers index and the Dallas fed business activity index, which affect U.S. crude futures prices.

Gold
1503/1505 resistance
1486/1484 support
China and the United States hold trade talks as scheduled, risk aversion cooled, gold prices fell. On the other hand, the release of hawkish comments from the federal reserve, the risk of dollar assets fell, and gold prices came downward. Focus on today's U.S. economic data. If the data slows, Dow futures will fall, which could bullish gold prices. Technically, the gold price important support, 1486 and 1484 respectively. It’s suggested that the Dow futures trend and the gold price opposite the relationship.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27085/27275 resistance
26830/26690 support
The 13th Trade talk, between senior U.S. and Chinese officials, indirectly led to investment sentiment in Dow futures, which were supported by the low. But in the short term, focus on U.S. economic data today, which affected the performance of Dow futures. Note the short term downside risk for Dow futures and watch for 26830 and 26690 support.

BTCUSD:
9550 /10250 resistance
7885 / 7685 support
Technically, US7900 support is significant support. If the bitcoin fails to support, it will test US7000 to US6500 support. For the short term, if gold price rebounded above $1505, the bitcoin price would rose.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 1

Personal opinions today:

The reserve bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 1% to 0.75%, challenging the lowest level in the reserve bank of Australia's history. If the RBA rate cut is in line with expectations and does not signal further rate cuts, it could be positive for the Australian dollar. However, the afternoon market may be expected to tomorrow's U.S. ADP employment change and the official non-farm payrolls data from the previous value, next week's US-China trade minister-level consultations, the dollar is now bullish, It was believe that it will limit the rise of the Australian dollar. Generally, the New Zealand dollar has followed the trend of the Australian dollar for most of its time.

Today's European data is as important as the U.S. data, with special attention given to the final German manufacturing PMI for September, the preliminary Eurozone CPI for September and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for September. For crude oil prices, the market is focused on tomorrow's U.S. API crude oil inventories last week. Keep an eye on what the fed officials are saying during U.S. trading hours. Also watch the hourly chart of U.S. Dow futures (US30) for stock market fluctuations and the pulse of the market. Dow futures rose last night, safe-haven flow out the money from gold and the yen. At the same time, money flows into dollar assets and the dollar and Down rose, which is bearish for other currencies against the dollar.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

12:30 RBA announces its decision on interest rates
14:00 UK house prices in September *
14:30 Swiss August real retail sales annualized *
15:15 Fed Evans on monetary policy *
15:55 German manufacturing PMI final for September ***
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI final for September
16:30 UK manufacturing PMI for September **
17:00 Eurozone September CPI annualized rate ***
17:20 RBA President David Lowe speech**
20:30 Canadian GDP in July **
20:50 Federal reserve vice chairman Clarida speech **
21:15 Fed Bullard delivers remarks at the meeting *
21:30 Federal reserve governor Robert Bowman speech *
21:45 US final Markit manufacturing PMI for September
22:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI in September ***
The next day 04:30 US API crude oil stocks change ***

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.0925/1.0940 resistance
1.0880/1.0865 support
European central bank President dovish comments lost investment confidence in the Euro. European economic data failed to meet market expectations to remain weak, the Euro downward. Today, the European market early focus on the German manufacturing PMI final September and Eurozone September CPI annualized rate. The comments followed comments by Fed officials and the September ISM manufacturing PMI. Any strong data, on behalf of the bullish, vice versa. Technical trend, the Euro trend is weak, the trend fell to reference support at 1.0900 and 1.0885 support. It is advisable to keep an eye on whether the Euro can be boosted by the economic data from Europe and the United States today. But it's more important to watch the ADP results tomorrow night. If the data does not come in as expected, the dollar could reverse course.

Pound against dollar
1.2320/1.2335 resistance
1.2250/1.2235 support
The situation in the UK is grim. With only one month left before the deadline for the UK to leave Europe, the UK faces more uncertainties and challenges, which become investment justifications. Unless there is a change in the Brexit negotiations and pound can recover its 1.2360 resistance, it will be limited and bearish if today's UK data beat expectations.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6765/0.6780 resistance
0.6715/0.6700 support
Australian dollar trend continues to adjust wave, short - term opportunities to explore 0.6715 and 0.6685 support. If the Australian dollar reverses after the RBA decision today, it could see some resistance. Ahead of the US.-China trade ministerial meeting, there are still challenging U.S. jobs data. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are expected to get bullish on the news and U.S. jobs data.

Dollar/yen
108.35/108.50 resistance
107.70/107.55 support
Dow futures rose, pushing the dollar above 107.85 and 108.00 against the yen. The expected rise in U.S. Job data this week is expected to continue with the Doe futures rally and the dollar rising against the yen ahead of tomorrow's U.S. ADP data. Conversely, if Dow and Nikkei futures fall, the dollar will have an opportunity to test support against the yen.

U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
1.3280/1.3305 resistance
1.3225/1.3205 support
Crude oil hit another low of $55.5, but lost support. In addition, the market forecast the Canadian data is weak, the dollar strengthened, the Canadian dollar. The market is looking forward to the Oct. 10 high-level US.-China trade talks, which indirectly supported the rise in crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar. In addition, the United States will release API crude oil inventory tomorrow, if the inventory is significantly reduced, oil and Canadian dollar. Technically, the first target around 1.3225 and 1.3205. But at present the oil price unstable and the crude oil price falls the momentum has not changed, the suggestion USD/CAD first looks up 1.3280 or 1.3305 resistance.

US crude oil futures
56.55/57.05 resistance
53.75/53.25 support
The Chicago purchasing managers index and the Dallas Fed business activity index fell short of market expectations yesterday, affecting U.S. crude oil futures prices. Saudi crude oil supplies are gradually repairing, and the market is expected to report a rise in API crude oil inventories tomorrow, which will be bearish for crude oil prices. Expected crude oil inventory results after the release of stable prices. Oil futures prices are expected to rise in the future, driven by an anticipated rise in U.S. jobs data and progress on a US.-China trade deal.

Gold
1478/1480 resistance
1465/1463 support
China and the United States hold trade talks as scheduled, risk cooled, gold prices fell. On the other hand, the release of hawkish comments from the federal reserve, the risk of dollar assets fell, and gold prices came downward. In line with the Dow futures rising, gold prices further explore a half-year low. Technically, the gold price short-term important support around US$1486 and US$1484 respectively break through, the downward risk increased. Note the inverse relationship between Dow futures and gold price. If Dow futures continue to climb, gold has a chance to break US$1463 support. Then, there will be a chance for a reversal after the U.S. non-farm payroll.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27085/27275 resistance
26830/26690 support
On October 10, China and the United States confirmed high-level officials for the 13th round of negotiations. If nothing else, the progress of the trade agreement between the two countries indirectly led to investment in Dow futures. In addition, the market is forecasting US jobs data growth, with US ADP data to be watched tomorrow before the official non-farm payroll on Friday. During that time, Dow futures could start to limit the gains, preparing for correction or reversal.

BTCUSD:
9550 /10250 resistance
7885 / 7685 support
Technically, US7900 support is very important to support. Now it seems success to find a support, even the gold price fell. If once the rebounded, the bitcoin price would rose. The first target 9550 or10250 resistance

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 2

Personal opinions today:

The RBA decision was in line with market estimates of a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate from 1% to 0.75%, the lowest interest rate in history. The reserve bank of Australia said the rate cut was in line with, although it did not indicate further rate cuts, but the market expected today's U.S. ADP employment change data and Friday's U.S. labor sector non-farm payrolls data to be higher than the previous value, limiting the Australian dollar's rise and had been falling. The New Zealand dollar has followed the Australian dollar, falling. Yesterday, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in September fell from the previous month and was lower than the last figure. Dow futures (US30) fell more than 300 points, and the dollar fell on concerns that the U.S. manufacturing sector is in a deep contraction and could spill over into services, hurting labor markets and economic growth. The economic outlook is uncertain, the stock market is volatile, and crude oil futures prices cannot avoid falling. Fortunately, U.S. API crude oil inventories fell, crude oil prices rose from low. The Japanese yen and gold rebounded as U.S. Dow futures fell last night, the dollar index fell, and assets returned, Dow futures fell, bullish on the yen and gold prices.

Global attention today focused on U.S. September ADP employment change data, to calculate Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. At the same time, it can reflect whether the strength of the U.S. economy is in line with market expectations. If the U.S. manufacturing PMI disappointed the market as it did yesterday, the U.S. jobs data disappointed again today. Believe Dow futures continue to fall, gold prices and the yen are expected to continue to rise.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

14:30 Switzerland monthly CPI in September **
20:15 U.S. ADP employment change in September ***
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories change **

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.0945/1.0960 resistance
1.0900/1.0885 support
Yesterday, ECB President commented continued to affect the euro investment confidence, the Euro downward trend continues. Germany's final manufacturing PMI for September edged up slightly from its initial reading yesterday, but the Eurozone initial CPI rate for September still slowed, and the Euro fell to a low of 1.0925 in European trading hours. Later in U.S. trading hours, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for September was weak, and the Euro rebounded, initially recovering 1.0925. Technical trend, the Euro trend is still weak; the trend fell to reference support at 1.0900 and 1.0885 support. It is advisable to keep an eye on whether the euro can be boosted by the economic data from Europe and the United States today. But it's more important to keep an eye on today's U.S. ADP employment change results. If the data does not meet expectations, the dollar trend bearish, bullish on Euro.

Pound against dollar
1.2320/1.2335 resistance
1.2235/1.2220 support
The situation in the UK is grim. With only one month to go before the deadline for the UK to leave Europe, the UK faces many uncertainties and challenges. The British prime minister has been publicising that he can solve the dilemma in the Brexit deals and make rational discussions and changes. While the market believes there is still reason to believe the UK prime minister can reverse the no-deal Brexit deadline and hopes the pound can recover its 1.2360 resistance, gains may be limited. The only short-term note today is U.S. ADP data results. If the data does not meet expectations, the dollar trend is bearish, bullish on pound.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6740/0.6755 resistance
0.6690/0.6675 support
Australian dollar trend continues to adjust, has been down 0.6685 support, lower see 0.6672 last night. Mainly by the reserve bank of Australia rate cut, the RBA did not mention whether it will further cut interest rates, the Australian dollar bearish continued. US ADP employment change data today, faced challenges, if the data did not meet expectations, the U.S. dollar trend negative, positive Australian and New Zealand dollar.

Dollar/yen
108.05/108.20 resistance
107.35/107.20 support
The ADP data follows yesterday's the weak US ISM manufacturing PMI data, which sent Dow futures down and the dollar down against the yen. If the U.S. ADP data does not meet expectations today, the dollar will have a chance to test lower support against the yen, with Dow and Nikkei futures down.

U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
1.3235/1.3250 resistance
1.3190/1.3175 support
The reported a drop in API crude oil inventories, a bullish on oil prices, during the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar rebounded strongly last night, mainly due to a fall in the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index in September, led by a fall in the dollar. Technically, the first target has reached 1.3205 support. The US ADP job data is facing challenges today; if the data does not meet expectations, the dollar trend is bearish, then bullish on the Canadian dollar. Besides, under the influence of the international oil price situation, the decline of crude oil price has not improved. It suggests that the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar be affected by the fall in oil price.

US crude oil futures
54.55/55.05 resistance
53.25/52.90 support
U.S. crude oil futures fell yesterday after the Chicago purchasing managers index and the Dallas fed business activity index fell and below market expectations. And Saudi oil supplies are recovering, with prices falling yesterday. The US API crude oil inventory reduction, slightly to support crude oil prices. If today's U.S. ADP numbers are as good as expected, and expect the US-China trade talks going well next week, it would drive the crude oil futures prices higher in the future. But the market remains focused on whether the U.S. jobs data and if all jobs data continues to slow, that could be bearish for crude oil.

Gold
1490/1492 resistance
1470/1468 support
Technically, the gold price finally recovered support 1463, the downward eased. Dow futures fell as a U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index fell. The inverse relationship between Dow futures and gold prices, which rebounded from their lows yesterday when Dow futures fell. The market is currently awaiting U.S. ADP employment change data today, and if the data beats expectations or Dow futures rebound, gold will be bearish. And vice versa.

U.S. Dow Jones futures US30
26830/27075 resistance
26530/26355 support
Despite market forecasts for U.S. job data growth, Dow futures fell yesterday after a disappointing U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index ahead of today's ADP employment change data release and the official U.S. non-farm payroll data on Friday. During this time on the sidelines, Dow futures would limit volatility and continue to fall in the correction zone. Dow futures could recoup losses if the U.S. ADP data were better-than-expected and boosts stocks. Besides, the high-level trade talks between China and the United States coming next week, it could be expected to lift investment sentiment, which could affect bullish stocks.

BTCUSD:
9550 /10250 resistance
7885 / 7685 support
The US manufacturing purchase manager index fell, Down future fell and gold price rebounds. If today, the US ADP employment change below the market expectations. It could be bullish the gold price, and the Bitcoin price would follow. Technically, US7900 support is very important to support. Now it seems success to find support level, even the gold price fell. If once the rebounded, the bitcoin price would rose. The first target 9550 or10250 resistance

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 3

Personal opinions today:

U.S. September ADP payrolls, which below market expectations, and the market think that the US official September non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate could disappoint the market. Dow futures continued to slide after disappointing September U.S. jobs data. Dow future fell, gold prices and the yen is expected to continue to rise.

Earlier in European trading today, German and Eurozone purchasing managers index for services in September, producer prices in August and retail sales were all important. The Euro and Swiss franc are likely to maintain their gains if data show growth beating market expectations. Britain's services PMI for September is also being watched. But whatever the performance of the UK data, as time approaches and the UK government still does not have a deal with the EU, the pound will come downward.

Now, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index and ADP job data for September were weak and bearish for the dollar. Against US dollar currency and precious metal commodity prices rise. If U.S. data is similarly weak today, it would believe the dollar will continue to be weak. Dow futures were bearish on crude oil amid weak U.S. data. But expect gold, silver and the yen to rise.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

15:45 Fed Evans speaks
15:55 German final services PMI for September ***
16:00 Eurozone final services PMI for September
16:30 UK services PMI for September **
17:00 Eurozone PPI, monthly retail sales ***
19:30 U.S. September challenger corporate layoffs *
20:30 U.S. jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 28 ***
21:45 U.S. final Markit services PMI for September
22:00 U.S. factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing PMI ***

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.0980/1.1000 resistance
1.0925/1.0905 support
The Euro rebounded on the dollar's fall to regain 1.0925, with an opportunity to test 1.1100. Technical moves, the Euro is still weak, if the U.S. data is weak to test the upper resistance, otherwise, the euro is still down to 1.0880. It is advisable to keep an eye out for the possibility of further boosting the euro if the economic data from Europe and the United States are released today.

Pound against dollar
1.2340/1.2360 resistance
1.2270/1.2250 support
With less than a month to go before the deadline for leaving Europe, the UK faces many uncertainties and challenges. Taking advantage of a number of weak U.S. economic data, the dollar fell on hopes the pound could recover 1.2360 resistance, but further gains in pound are likely to be limited, keeping an eye on the U.S. September non-farm payrolls data, which could fall at any time.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6740/0.6755 resistance
0.6690/0.6675 support
The trend of the Australian dollar continues to adjust waves, has tested the support level 0.6675. Mainly, the RBA held back further interest rate cuts pending the 13th round of US-China trade talks, limiting the Australian dollar gains. After yesterday's weak U.S. ADP jobs data. If the U.S. data continues to be weak, it will be bullish for the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Dollar/yen
107.35/107.55 resistance
106.70/106.50 support
Dow futures fell sharply and the dollar fell against the yen as trade frictions between the US and Europe escalated. If today's U.S. jobs data, factory orders and non-manufacturing PMI if lower expected, bearish dollar, Down and Nikkei futures, the dollar will have an opportunity to test lower support against the yen.

U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
1.3355/1.3370 resistance
1.3290/1.3275 support
The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index fell in September, ADP employment data fell as well. The forecast demand for crude oil has fallen amid concerns about trade frictions in the United States. The Canadian dollar failed to benefit from the fall in the US dollar, falling along with crude oil prices. The international oil price situation is not clear; the crude oil price decline momentum still has not improved; we suggest that the USDCAD on the resistance.

United States crude oil futures
53.55/54.05 resistance
52.25/51.90 support
U.S. crude oil futures fell after many US regions purchasing managers index below market expectations and the U.S. ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index fell for the third straight month. And Saudi crude oil supplies gradually repair, crude oil prices continue to decline. Today's focus on U.S. Initial jobless claims and other US data, which could be bearish for oil if the slowdown continues.

Gold
1510/1512 resistance
1492/1490 support
Technical trend, gold prices finally recovered $1463, ease the downward. Dow futures fell and gold prices rebounded as U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index and U.S. jobs data fell and trade frictions between the U.S. and Europe escalated. If U.S. data beats expectations today or Dow futures rebound, it could be bearish for gold. Technical trend, resistance level $1512 is concerned.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26235/26355 resistance
26005/25885 support
U.S. ADP employment and U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers were disappointed, and Dow futures fell. After Dow futures fell, the market focused on the possibility that the official U.S. non-farm payroll could be just as weak today and Friday. Dow futures could recoup losses if U.S. jobs data and other U.S. economy data beat market expectations today, easing trade frictions between the U.S. and Europe and improving investment sentiment lift stocks. Looking forward to next week's high-level trade talks between China and the United States, the investment climate is rising, which could bullish the stock market.

BTCUSD:
9550 /10250 resistance
8085 / 7885 support
Since US ADP employment change below the market expectations. Dow future fell and gold price rose, the Bitcoin price would following. Technically, US7885 support is very important to support. If gold price keeping up, the bitcoin price following the trend. The first target 9550 or10250 resistance

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 7

Personal opinions today:

The number of non-farm payrolls in September was lower than the market expected, and the monthly and.annual rate of average hourly wages fell, falling more than half a year. Only the unemployment rate fell, lead the market surprise. Anyway, the U.S. job data had been expected to be bearish for Dow futures and the dollar, when the decline in U.S. nonfarm payrolls did not widen in September. Besides, Dow futures rebounded sharply above 26,400, as high as 26,588, in anticipation of a Fed rate cut and hopes for a successful 13th round of US and China trade talks on Thursday. Gold and silver were downward. On the other side of the US dollar, the Fed may cut interest rates as average wages fall, and inflation expectations fall. The news affected the dollar, and the dollar index began to weaken.

There is no critical data or other essential comments in the market today, and if there is no surprise, it expects a narrow and ranging. In European trading, German manufacturing orders for August and Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment for October weighed on the euro. September Halifax quarterly house price index, watch the British pound. In addition to the conference board employment trends index for September, it is worth watching during the session when U.S. President Donald Trump's sudden remarks caused market volatility. It may believe that the European market after the close of the market began to calm; the trend started to straighten out.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

14:00 German manufacturing orders in August **
15:30 UK September Halifax house price index **
16:30 Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index **
22:00 US employment trends index for September **

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.0995/1.1015 resistance
1.0955/1.0935 support
The U.S. non-farm payrolls fell in September, and average wages were below market expectations. The dollar fell, and the euro took advantage of the rally, hitting 1.0995. After the adjustment of the Euro again test the resistance. If the European economic data stronger today, the Euro could come out of weakness. If U.S. data is weak, the Euro could test the 1.10 resistance. For short term support, watch out for 1.0955 support.

Pound against US dollar
1.2360/1.2380 resistance
1.2270/1.2250 support
The situation is grim in Britain, which has just over 20 days left to leave Europe. If Brexit talks between Britain and the EU do not proceed and ready. In the short term, the UK continues to face uncertainty and is bearish on pound, with a target of 1.22. Focusing on weak U.S. non-farm payrolls and falling average wages in September, the pound may be limited losses if expectations for a Fed rate cut rise. Today, have to look the support, then look at the resistance.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6770/0.6785 resistance
0.6725/0.6710 support
Markets this week waited for the 13th round of US and China trade talks to be successful, with gains for the Australian dollar. Also, weak U.S. jobs data and increased opportunities for the federal reserve to cut interest rates bearish the U.S. dollar, bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars. If the above good news, the Australian dollar rose against the US dollar, is expected to break 0.6785 resistance, test the level of 0.68.

Dollar/yen
107.15/107.35 resistance
106.65/106.50 support
The U.S. non-farm payroll data in September is bearish for the dollar, which has been bearish for Dow and Nikkei futures and will have a chance to test the support levels against the yen again. The dollar is likely to test 107.35 resistance against the yen as the upcoming US and China trade talks bullish Dow and Nikkei futures. Suggest the Dow futures, how to lead the dollar against the yen trend.

U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
1.3325/1.3340 resistance
1.3290/1.3275 support
U.S. foreign trade frictions, weak jobs data, and an expected drop in demand for crude oil, which has tested $51. The international oil price trend is not clear, crude oil price decline momentum still has not improved, we suggest that the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar on the resistance. If crude oil falls again, the U.S. dollar could test 1.3340 resistance against the Canadian dollar. Otherwise, explore 1.3275 support.

United States crude oil futures
53.15/53.55 resistance
51.90/51.55 support
Earlier, the Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed business activity fell below market expectations, while the US ISM PMI fell for the third month in a row and the non-manufacturing PMI fell for the first time. After weak U.S. ADP payrolls, the official U.S. nonfarm payrolls were also weak in September, decreasing the U.S. crude oil demand and sending futures prices lower overall. For now, the market is concerned about the imminent US and China trade talks, supporting a slight rise in oil prices. If the trade talks go well, bullish crude oil. Conversely, bearish crude oil price.

Gold
1512/1514 resistance
1497/1495 support
The U.S. ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI showed that the U.S. job data and average wages fell in September. Rising trade frictions between the US and Europe are bearish for the US economy and inflation, and the Fed may consider cutting interest rates, which could be the reason for the rebound in gold prices. Technical trend, resistance level 1518 and 1520 are significant resistance. A short term without any data stimulus, gold price in range volatility, first watch 1512 and 1514 resistance.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26660/26815 resistance
26265/26110 support
Dow futures fell ahead of the expected weak non-farm payrolls data for September and disappointing PMI for U.S. manufacturing and services sectors. The market eased after the release and saw U.S. interest rate futures show an increased chance of rate cuts, supported Dow futures rebound. Besides, the market is focused on an uptick in investment sentiment following the US and China trade talks on Thursday as this analysis predicted last week that Dow futures will finally get a rebound. Now, without damaging comments affecting trade talks, Dow futures could continue to rise.

BTCUSD:
7885/ 7960 resistance
7500 / 7255 support
Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is significant. If gold price keeping up, the bitcoin price following the trend. For adjustment right now, it would be looking at US7500, it is critical support.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

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[Kelly Yeung]

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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 8

Personal opinions today:

Markets expect the Fed could cut rates this month. Besides, U.S. Dow futures continued to rise in anticipation of the 13th round of US and China trade talks on Thursday. Expectations of a consensus on trade between China and the United States to improve trade tensions between China and the United States, risk aversion to cool, gold and silver prices fell.

In European trading today, watch for Swiss unemployment in September and German industrial output in August, which could affect Switzerland and the Euro, respectively. Generally speaking, the above data can affect the same trend of the two countries' currencies. As the time approaches for Brexit, the British parliament should take note of the fall in the pound without constructive negotiations with the EU. U.S. market hours, the U.S. September PPI, Fed officials and chairman of the speech. The crude oil futures market, watch the U.S. API crude oil inventory last week, crude oil futures market and price fluctuations.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

Summertime is in effect in Australia
GMT+3 is the time of the trading platform. The above arrangements are subject to change without prior notice.

07:50 Japan August trade account *
09:45 China Caixin services PMI in September **
13:45 Swiss unemployment rate in September **
14:00 German industrial output in August ***
18:00 U.S. NFIB small business confidence index **
20:30 US PPI in September ***
The next day 01:35 Fed Evans speaks **
The next day 01:50 Federal chairman Powell speech ***
The next day 04:30 US API crude oil stocks change ***

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.0995/1.1015 resistance
1.0955/1.0935 support
Swiss unemployment in September and German industrial output in August, consensus expectations improved from the previous month, U.S. economic data was weak, the dollar may have fallen, and the Euro took the opportunity to rebound, but the hard to 1.1000 resistance without any good reasons. If today's US September PPI and speeches by Fed officials or Fed chairman confirm that the Fed is considering cutting interest rates at the end of this month, the Euro could test or break the resistance after the current correction. Technical, short - term support pay attention to 1.0955 support, resistance 1.0995.

Pound to dollar
1.2360/1.2380 resistance
1.2270/1.2250 support
Brexit is a serious matter. As mentioned above, the deadline for the UK to leave the EU is approaching, and the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU still fail to proceed smoothly or see any consensus to leave the EU or delay the deadline. Fundamentals lead to bearish the pound; the estimated target will be down 1.22 level and extended to 1.21. If any favourable agreement stimulates pound, it could test 1.2380 resistance. On the contrary, if Brexit deal unfavourite the UK, the pound could fall to 1.21. Today could be influenced by weak U.S. economic data or comments from the federal reserve. Pound would test the initial resistance at 1.2360.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6770/0.6780 resistance
0.6725/0.6715 support
This Thursday is the 13th round of US and China trade talks, any good news, which is likely to bullish the Australian dollar. Besides, the Fed would cut the rate. If the US dollar falls, the Australian and New Zealand dollar. Technical trend analysis, if the Australian dollar sticks to 0.6725 to 0.6715 support level is expected to rebound up 0.6780 resistance, more likely up 0.68 level.

Dollar/yen
107.45/107.70 resistance
107.05/106.90 support
Dow futures and Nikkei index futures rose as investment sentiment picked up ahead of the upcoming US and China trade talks, while the USDJPY also rose. The dollar is likely to test 107.35 resistance against the yen yesterday as U.S. trade talks with China approach, bullish Dow and Nikkei futures. Continue to refer to the Dow futures, how to lead the dollar against the yen trend. Technically, the USDJPY rebound wave near the current market price level respectively is 107.45 and 107.70. Supports bits 107.05 and 106.90.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3325/1.3340 resistance
1.3290/1.3275 support
The international trade and sentiment is still tense, the trend of oil price is uncertain, the decline of crude oil price continues without significant improvement, and the USDCAD is testing resistance. In short-term, the market focuses the German industrial output in August, U.S. PPI in September and the U.S. crude oil inventories. Also, Fed officials and chairman speech, it would affect the crude oil prices. If crude oil prices are bearish by weak production data in Europe and the United States and a sharp rise in crude oil inventories, the USDCAD could test 1.3325 or 1.3340 resistance. Otherwise, would check the support for 1.3290 or 1.3275.

US crude oil futures
53.55/53.90 resistance
52.15/51.75 support
U.S. manufacturing PMI fell for the third straight month, and non-manufacturing PMI fell for the first time. Earlier
, the Chicago PMI and the Dallas fed's business activity index fell below market expectations. U.S. ADP and official U.S. nonfarm payrolls were weak in September, and oil futures prices fell on concerns about the impact on crude oil demand. For now, the market is focused on the success of the US and China trade talks, with some support for crude oil prices. In the short term, it's important to keep an eye on European and U.S. production data today, crude oil inventories and Fed and US Presidents speak. The commentary can affect the price of crude oil. If any data weak or Fed officials would not cut rate that could bearish crude oil prices. If the trade talks going well, it could lead to higher crude oil prices.

Gold
1510/1512 resistance
1489/1487 support
If German industrial output in August or U.S. producer prices in September, all weak. Any comments from the federal reserve that it would cut interest rates that could justify a rebound in gold prices. At present, the market is waiting for the above data before, taking advantage of the improved investment sentiment of US and China trade talks and the cooling of risk aversion, such as last week's trend, gold prices fell first. If the all above mentions data is weak, and the fed will consider cutting interest rates soon. Or the US and China trade talks could fall apart without progress. These things, presumably, could trigger a sharp rise in the price of gold. Technical trends, resistance at $1518 and $1520, support at $1465 and $1463 are being watched. In the short term, there is nothing to do. Look out for $1489 or $1487 support, $1510 or $1512 resistance. Most important, Dow futures and gold prices in trends often move in opposite directions. Such as, Dow futures rose, while gold fell.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26660/26815 resistance
26265/26110 support
Most U.S. data for September fell, below the market expectations, and Dow futures fell. With the current China-US trade talks, part of the investment climate improved, Dow futures rose. If the market is looking forward to the China-US trade talks on Thursday, there is any negative news, the investment sentiment fell. Dow futures could fall if a U.S. President Trump speaks destroyed the 13th-trade talks.

BTCUSD:
8550/ 8800 resistance
7960 / 7885 support
Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is significant. After tests the critical support, then the bitcoin price rebounded. Most recently, If the gold price rose, the bitcoin price would follow. If any adjustment again, it would look at US7885 that critical support. Next, it would test 8550 or 8800 resistance.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.