ATFX Market Updates 2019

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 9

Personal opinions today:

The US President's comments bearish markets and increased the risks of 13th round of trade talks tomorrow. US core producer price index fell in September, U.S. Dow futures turned from positive to negative, down over 300 points. The yen, gold and silver rose. After that, Fed officials and the Fed chairman released hawkish comments, saying that the Fed would keep interest rates, but would consider restarting to buyin US bond program to boost market liquidity and ease the rise in the yen, gold and silver prices.

In European trading today, watch the Bank of England release a summary of its financial policy. Before the announcement, the pound fell yesterday, breaking through 1.2200 support. The dollar and Dow futures continue to face downside risks following weak September data already released in the United States, which is expected to report weak August wholesale sales today. U.S. API crude oil inventories rose sharply last week, and it is believed that EIA crude oil inventories also rose, limiting the rise in crude oil futures prices and making it more likely that the trend will remain weak. The next day, the federal reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting at 02:00. If there is a significant increase in the percentage of dovish fed officials, or if officials say they need to consider further rate cuts, watch out for the risk of a weaker dollar. But comments on rate cuts could help dow futures recoup some of their losses.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

14:30 France business confidence index for September *
16:00 China M2 money supply in September **
16:30 Bank of England releases a summary ***
22:00 US wholesale sales in August **
22:30 Fed chairman Powell chairs speaks ***
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change **
The next day at 02:00 Federal reserve minutes ***

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.0995/1.1015 resistance
1.0955/1.0940 support
Swiss unemployment in September and German industrial output in August improved from the previous month, while weak U.S. economic data yesterday sent the dollar down and the euro first to challenge the 1.0995 resistance. Following the Fed's hawkish comments, the euro adjusted. But today's forecast of weak U.S. economic data and the release of minutes from the federal reserve's monetary policy meeting could see the euro find resistance again after the current correction. Technically, the short - term support level 1.0940 attention important support, resistance level 1.0995. Of course, if the British pound below 1.2200 support and extending the decline, may indirectly affect the euro's decline.

Pound/ dollar
1.2260/1.2280 resistance
1.2170/1.2150 support
Brexit deadline for Britain to leave the European Union approaches, the two countries have failed to reach a consensus in the negotiations, which will lead to a negative effect on the pound. According to the original trend, the pound will fall to the level of 1.21. Of course, any favorable Brexit deal, or any event that causes the dollar to fall, could bullish the pound. The bank of England releases a summary of its financial policy and U.S. economic data, or Fed comments, today. The above time may affect the pound fluctuations.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6745/0.6760 resistance
0.6720/0.6705 support
The US President's comments have raised concerns about the success of the 13th round of US-China trade talks tomorrow, bearish the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, Fed officials said the chances of a rate cut were also negative for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. If trade talks do not make any results, or the US economic data well, the Australian and New Zealand dollars may further break through 0.6705 support.

Dollar/yen
107.25/107.40 resistance
106.85/106.70 support
Although the US-China trade talks start tomorrow, the investment sentiment tension. Because the US President's negative remarks and saw the Dow futures and Nikkei index futures trend fell, the USDJPY trend also followed the decline. The USDJPY hit the resistance, then the trend reversed and USDJPY decline further. If any market attitude changes, the Dow futures trend will leading the USDJPY trend. Short-term significant resistance is estimated at 107.40.

U.S. dollar / Canadian dollar
1.3325/1.3340 resistance
1.3290/1.3275 support
The international trade is tense; crude oil inventories have increased significantly, the International crude oil demand is not apparent. Crude oil prices continue to fall momentum, do not see a significant improvement; the dollar against the Canadian dollar may test resistance opportunities increased. If crude oil prices continue to fall, the USDCAD could test 1.3340 resistance. Otherwise explore 1.3275 support.

US crude oil futures
53.05/53.55 resistance
51.20/50.65 support
Make it simply, the market found the U.S. economic data for September remained weak, trade talks between China and the U.S. could hit a snaggly wall, markets worried about the impact on crude oil demand, and oil futures prices fell. For now, if any successful trade deal between the U.S. and China could support higher crude oil prices. Also, keep an eye out for productivity and manufacturing data in Europe and the United States, as well as Fed officials or chairmen speaks. Any news can affect the price of crude oil. Weak data or Fed officials not considering a planned rate cut, it could bearish crude oil prices. If the trade negotiations are successful, it is expected to increase crude oil prices.

Gold
1510/1512 resistance
1498/1496 support
US President's negative remarks affect the investment sentiment. Dow futures fell, following a rise in gold. Conversely, if today or coming future the Dow futures rise, gold prices fall.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26320/26425 resistance
26090/25985 support
Dow futures fell yesterday after most of the September data were lower expected and negative comments from the US President hurts progress in US-China trade talks. Dow futures recovered some of their losses on hopes that trade talks between the U.S. and China will begin tomorrow. If there is any negative news, the investment sentiment tension it would bearish global stock market. Dow futures could fall if the U.S. President again derailed trade talks. Of course, weak U.S. economic data and the Fed has no plans to cut interest rates have not only limited gains in dow futures, but are likely to test lows. Technically, the initial significant support bit is 25985.

BTCUSD:
8550/ 8800 resistance
7960 / 7885 support
Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is very important. After tests the critical support then the bitcoin price rebounded. Assuming that if gold price rose, the bitcoin price would follow. In this moment, it would look at US7885 support. Next, if rebounds, it would test 8550 or 8800 resistance.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 10

Personal opinions today:

The US President said that the 13th round of trade talks, which starts today, could lead to a consensus and agreement. The U.S. Dow Jones industrial average rose more than 200 points in early trading. Dow futures turned from positive to negative after the trade talks to facing the deal. Besides, the chairman of the federal reserve said in the minutes of the fed's rate-setting meeting that U.S. businesses expected the fed to cut interest rates more, which was not good for the U.S. economic outlook. On the facing of the fed intends to hawkish. Dow futures turned lower after the stock spot market closed, leading Asian stocks lower. Dow futures fell, and gold and silver extended gains, which had risen as high as $1,516 before easing in Asian trading yesterday.

During today's European trading session, watch for the German August trade account and current account, the UK August trade in goods account and UK August industrial and manufacturing output. More notable was the release of minutes from the European central bank's monetary policy meeting. The Euro, the Swiss franc and the pound came downward on expectations of weak European economic data and before the release of the minutes of the ECB's monetary policy meeting.

With the release of the U.S. consumer price index for September and U.S. jobless claims last week, the dollar and dow futures are expected to face downside risks if the data is weaker than expected. More importantly, during today's great day of US-China trade deal, please keep an eye on the progress of the negotiations during the US trading hours. Investors can use Dow futures and gold prices to judge the progress. If so, in line with market estimates, there may be no progress on the agenda and a chance of a breakdown in the talks, leading to a fall in Dow futures and global stocks, a fall in crude oil prices and thus a rise in gold and silver prices, as well as the yen.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

14:00 Germany trade account and current account ***
14:45 French industrial output in August **
16:30 UK trade account for August ***
16:30 UK industrial and manufacturing output in August **
19:30 ECB releases minutes ***
20:30 US September CPI ***
20:30 U.S. jobless claims ***
23:00 OPEC market report **
The next day 03:00 Fed Bullard speaks

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.0995/1.1015 resistance
1.0955/1.0940 support
Germany trade account and current account for August and France industrial output for August are expected to fall from the previous month. And the European central bank released monetary policy minutes, bearish Euro. European trading session, believe the Euro fails to test 1.0995 resistance. But the Euro is expected to find resistance again after adjusting to facing the weak U.S. inflation data today and a lack of progress in trade talks. Technically, the short-term support level for 1.0940 important support, initial resistance level 1.0995. Of course, the GBPUSD movement may indirectly affect the Euro.

Pound/ dollar
1.2260/1.2280 resistance
1.2170/1.2150 support
In European trading yesterday, markets expected weak U.S. economic data and a possible Fed rate cut. Combined with the British prime minister's negotiations with the European Union, the pound was as high as 1.2290. But the Brexit new deal to leave the EU has been rejected by the EU. The market believes there is still no success, leading to bearish the pound again. The pound will have a chance to test the 1.21 level. Of course, any time there is a good Brexit deal or any event that causes the dollar to fall, it could be bullish the pound in the short term. Technically, the British pound is likely to find resistance again after adjusting to weak U.S. inflation data and the lack of progress in trade talks.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6755/0.6770 resistance
0.6720/0.6705 support
The 13th round of US-China trade talks today saw the market wait and see, stabilizing the Australian dollar. Besides, the expected weak U.S. inflation data today and the lack of progress in trade talks are likely to lead to a bullish AUDUSD and NZDUSD ahead of the U.S. inflation data. If the trade talks do not make any deal, it is expected to be bearish for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Technically, if the AUDUSD failed to break 0.6770 resistance, the trend is still bearish.

Dollar/yen
107.75/107.90 resistance
107.05/106.90 support
Although the US-China trade talks opened today, the market still holds the optimistic attitude, and investment sentiment seems increased; unfortunately, the US President negative remarks, Dow futures and Nikkei index futures trend still have downside opportunities. If the trade talks fail today, Dow and Nikkei futures fall, the dollar will follow fall against the yen. Due to trade negotiation, the trend of China A50 also fell along with the trade talks and affected the direction of the dollar against the yen.

U.S. dollar / Canadian dollar
1.3340/1.3355 resistance
1.3290/1.3275 support
Recently here we pointed out that the international trade tensions, crude oil inventories increased significantly, the oil price trend is uncertain. Crude oil prices continue to fall momentum, cannot find any improvement. With the trade talks uncertainty, the USDCAD is testing 1.3275 support and 1.3355 resistance. If, however, the trade war does not improve or progress is made, the U.S. dollar could rise against the Canadian dollar and the Chinese yuan. More importantly, the Canadian dollar's slide widened on worries about falling oil prices.

US crude oil futures
53.55/54.05 resistance
51.20/50.65 support
U.S. economic data for September continued to be weak, and trade talks between China and the United States were on the stage, raising concerns that the negotiations could hit a snagged path that could bearish the crude oil demand and bearish oil futures prices. If the trade talks are successful, then the crude oil prices would rise.

Gold
1514/1516 resistance
1498/1496 support
US President speaks, and negative remarks affect the investment sentiment. Dow futures fell yesterday, following a rise in gold. If Dow futures rise, gold prices drop in trade talks today. Conversely, the price of gold rose.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26320/26425 resistance
26090/25985 support
Dow futures fell yesterday after most of the September data were widely expected, combined with negative comments from the U.S. President and an impact on US.-China trade talks. Dow futures covered the losses and rose sharply after the U.S. President responded positively to trade talks. If there is any negative news about the trade talks, the investment sentiment will drop, Dow futures could fall. Of course, today's expected weak U.S. economic data will limit the rise in Dow futures and more likely test support.

BTCUSD:
8900/ 9200 resistance
8000 / 7885 support
Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is significant. After fails to test the critical support, then the bitcoin price followed the gold price rebounded. As here mentioned, we are assuming that if the gold price rose, the bitcoin price would follow. At this moment, the bitcoin price tested 8550 resistance. Next, it would test 8900 or 9200 resistance if the US-China trade talks failure.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 11

Personal opinions today:

China and US trade talks opened. China and the United States improved relations, investment sentiment improved, risk aversion cooled. Dow futures rose, testing early of the month highs. Demand for gold and the yen fell, the price of silver followed the price of gold, which also fell.

However, now we saw the trade relations improved, but failed to support the dollar appreciations. As the U.S. reported the consumer prices in September as fell, the market is thinking the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 percentage points. The chance to move up to 78%. The dollar fell, creating a rise in European currencies and commodity currencies rose. Besides, the Saudi crude oil organisation and OPEC plan to cut production to stabilise oil prices and prepare for the listing of Saudi Aramco, China and US trade negotiations are expected to progress well. Crude oil rebounded from its low last night, hit $54 after highs earlier this month.

European markets opened today, with Germany's final monthly CPI reading for September followed by the IEA's monthly oil market report. U.S. markets opened with an eye on the September import price index and the Michigan consumer confidence index for October. Prior to the release of the data, the trend of relevant currencies will be based on market expectations. In addition, as the 13th round of China and US trade talks in the second day. If trade talks going well, dow futures rose then gold prices and the yen fell.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

14:00 Germany monthly CPI data for September ***
16:00 China M2 money supply annualized in September **
16:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report **
20:30 US import price index for September **
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index ***
The next day 01:15 Federal reserve chairman spoke **

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.1035/1.1050 resistance
1.0985/1.0970 support
The ECB minutes and German economic data did not surprise the markets, but the Euro got a boost from U.S. consumer prices drop in September and speculation that the federal reserve would cut interest rates. Today European markets opened, Germany released the final September CPI rate. If the outcome is weak and less than expected, the Euro correction could be deeply. In addition, the progress of China and US trade talks is also the key to the trend of the dollar and the Euro. On a fundamental, European economic data don't have much reason to bullish the Euro. But a stronger pound could support the Euro rise that indirectly affect the Euro.

Pound to dollar
1.2460/1.2480 resistance
1.2370/1.2350 support
The British prime minister has negotiated with the European Union, EU will consider a New Deal with the British government or other options for a Brexit with serious problems created. The pound rose sharply. However, the new Brexit deal has been rejected by the EU and the Brexit issue is once again serious, which may still lead to a negative pound. Any time there is a favorable Brexit deal or any event that causes the dollar to fall could bullish pound in the short term, it said yesterday. After yesterday's new UK proposals and the weak US inflation data, pound is likely to test resistance again. Investors would looking the half year earlier high in this moment.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6785/0.6800 resistance
0.6745/0.6730 support
The 13th round of China and US trade talks was formally held, and the market watched and stabilized the trend of the Australian dollar. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain on the sidelines at a time when U.S. inflation data are weak and trade talks between the U.S. and China have yet to yield real results. If the trade talks succeed, it is expected to bullish Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Dollar/yen
108.30/108.45 resistance
107.75/107.60 support
China and the United States trade talks held, the market to wait and see, investors keep looking forward. While Dow and Nikkei futures rose, the dollar rose above 108 against the yen. If the talks talks fail and Dow and Nikkei futures fall, be aware that the dollar will follow suit against the yen. Assuming that the investment sentiment is good, the dollar would expected to test the early resistance 108.45.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3330/1.3345 resistance
1.3275/1.3269 support
Crude oil prices rebounded and the dollar fell against the Canadian dollar. In addition, as trade talks and negotiations progressed well. However , the US inflation fell and expected to cut interest rates. USDCAD testing 1.3275 support. If, however, the US and China trade war doesn't get off the ground, the U.S. dollar rises against the Canadian dollar. More important is to see crude oil prices fell, Canadian dollar decline widened.

United States crude oil futures
54.05/54.55 resistance
52.65/52.15 support
U.S. economic data for September continued to be weak, and tongshen fell. The trade war between the US and Europe is heating up and demand for crude oil is expected to slow. News that OPEC was planning to cut output and that trade talks between the U.S. and China were progressing well boosted crude futures prices. If the trade talks are successful, oil prices could rise and fall. At the moment the key resistance, 54.05 and 54.55. A breakout could extend to $56, or $52.

Gold
1514/1516 resistance
1492/1490 support
Although, US and China trade talks are going well, some smart money is leaving the gold market, inflowing to stock market. Dow futures rose and gold fell. But US both economy and inflation fell in September. If the Fed will cut interest rates, and the dollar would flow back into the gold market. It would believe that with the conclusion of US and China trade consultation and the return of market focus, gold may be pursued.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26670/26775 resistance
26445/26255 support
Most of US data in the September weak, U.S. inflation also fell in September. Fortunately, trade talks between the U.S. and China going well, investment sentiment improved a bit, and Dow futures recovered losses and rose. Please keep watching, any news from trade talks. If bad news, the investment climate will drop then Dow futures could fall.

BTCUSD:
8900/ 9200 resistance
8000 / 7885 support
US CPI fell in September. FOMC would consider cut Fed fund rate. Good for crypto currencies. Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is very important. Assuming the bitcoin price as followed the gold price rebounded. The bitcoin price would test 8900 or 9200 resistance

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

German Economic Sentiment is on a date with new disappointment

Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped to a sharp rise in September 2019, after the August reading, which was the worst reading since December 2011. It came in at -22.5, showing a 21.6-point rise compared to the previous month. Therefore, the indicator appears approximately at the same level as the July reading, which was at -21.1 points. This reading shows September reading at a better level than the market's average forecast at -37.00, as analysts' fears dominated their expectations regarding the intensification of the US-China trade war. But let's wait a bit, as the September reading is still well below the 21.5-point long-term average.

Looking at the reading of the indicator historically, we notice that the indicator is moving in a downtrend, which is exactly in line with the reading of the German manufacturing PMI, which recorded its worst performance since the end of the global financial crisis, as the latest PMI data showed on October 1st, The decline comes as the pace of contraction in production and new orders accelerates. Besides, there was a drastic drop in job opportunities, with German factory employment falling to its lowest level in almost a decade, according to the IHS Markit and BME indicator.

The attached chart shows the IHS Markit / BME Germany Manufacturing PMI - the worst performance of the German manufacturing sector, drawing on the pessimistic outlook for new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and procurement quotas - to 41.7 in September, down from last reading. The same indicator in August was at 43.5, the lowest reading since June 2009.

Analyses by the preliminary industrial group showed that investment goods were the worst performers during the month, followed by intermediaries. Unfortunately, in the September survey, consumer goods producers joined other groups of producers in recording deflation.

Concerning production, September witnessed a remarkable acceleration in the decline of production for the eighth consecutive month at the fastest rate since July 2012. This production shrinking was accompanied by an accelerated decline in new orders, bringing new orders to the lowest level since April 2009. By entering into the details of the survey on the reasons for these declines, Companies reporting a drop in new business commented on customers postponing orders, reducing the number of orders, and in some cases completely cancelling orders, often behind uncertainty about future expectations.

With regards to the German industrial workforce, the pace of layoffs has accelerated at the fastest pace since January 2010. It is very important to point to a decline in manufacturing employment for seven consecutive months, with the recent wave of job losses again focusing mainly on contractors, It is indeed worrying that manufacturers have shown a growing willingness to reduce the number of workers during the last survey, which raises serious concern that this will reflect on German consumer confidence and weigh heavily on the German economy.

Therefore, the ZEW Economic Sentiment reading is expected to see a new decline as the PMI Manufacturing and ZEW sentiment indicator are historically linked to largely consistent performance.




For those who do not know:

Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment survey measures analysts' optimism about the expected economic developments over the next six months. The survey covers up to 350 financial and economic analysts. The indicator is designed to represent the difference between the percentage of optimistic analysts and the percentage of analysts who are pessimistic about the development of the economy. Therefore, the ZEW confidence indicator appears on a scale from -100, which is mean all analysts expect the economy to deteriorate- to 100, which says all analysts expect the economy to improve. Therefore, logically, a value of 0 indicates that the number of optimistic analysts equals the number of pessimistic analysts.



Information provided by ATFX (AE) Head of Market Research: Ramy Abouzaid

Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555). Registered Office: 32 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3SG. Company No. 09827091

 

[Kelly Yeung]

NFLX Q3 Earnings Preview As Competition Heats Up

Netflix (NFLX) will report its Q3 earnings results on October 16 after the market close. Netflix is the streaming entertainment leader, with some 60 million domestic and 91.5 million international subscribers.

The stocks 52-week range is from $231.23 to $385.99; the capitalization stands at 120.084B.

NFLX reported a 26% revenue growth for 2Q while the operating income increased by 53% year over year in Q2. Paid membership grew by 2.7 million, less than the 5.5 million in Q2 a year ago and the company’s 5.0 million forecast. Annual Average streaming paid memberships increased 24%, while annual revenue per user (ARPU) increased 3%. EPS amounted to $0.60 vs $0.85 and included a $61 million non-cash unrealised loss from FX remeasurement on EUR-denominated debt. Streaming content obligations decreased 2%, reflecting our shift to more owned vs licensed content. Netflix also missed forecasts in all regions internationally and said it struggled slightly more in places where increased price during the year. Netflix added 2.8 million subscribers internationally.

Source: https://www.netflixinvestor.com

Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) for 3Q at $1.04 with a range between 0.98-1.15, the year-ago EPS was at $0.89. Market consensus revenues for 3Q stands at 5.25B (previous 4B). In Q3, the company expect to grow by 7m paid memberships, more than the 6.1m in Q3 a year ago. Netflix has forecast up to 750,000 paid subscriber additions in the 3Q, with results scheduled to be released on Oct. 16 after the market close.



Netflix Marketing
As NFLX has shifted to original content, Netflix marketing has evolved to increasingly focus on launching key titles to build excitement amongst existing users and non-members. NFLX continues to invest in owned media, where the company can have a strong and direct relationship with fans. The company also building a new licensing and brand partnerships effort, which is optimizing for fan and viewer engagement over revenue maximization.



Product and Partnerships
Netflix entered into a partnership with AT&T in the US to integrate Netflix into its new set-top box. The company is now partner with a wide range of ISPs and multichannel video programming distributors, including Comcast, DISH, Verizon, T-Mobile, Charter, and Altice, in addition to AT&T. The company is not planning to add advertisements in its streaming. “We believe we will have a more valuable business in the long term by staying out of competing for ad revenue and instead entirely focusing on competing for viewer satisfaction.”



Competition
In the upcoming months, Apple (AAPL), Disney (DIS), WarnerMedia, NBCU and others are joining BBC, Amazon (AMZN), Hotstar, YouTube, and many others in offering streaming entertainment services. The innovation of streaming services is also driving home viewers to shift more and more from linear television to streaming entertainment. With so many big players entering the streaming market, a price war could force NFLX to lower its subscription fees. Apple launches its service on November 1st at $4.99 a month. Disney will launch Disney+ two weeks later at $6.99 a month. Netflix in the past had no problem competing against services that are cheaper than the $12.99 a month it currently charges for its most popular streaming plan, but things might change this time as well-capitalized competitors like Apple and Disney enter the market.



NFLX Technical Analysis
Netflix’s stock is down 22% over the last 52 weeks and has lost a quarter of its value since it reported its Q2 results in July, so a lot of the negative sentiment is already priced into the stock.

In the technical side, the picture is bearish for the long term as NFLX trades below all major daily moving averages. NFLX price has been trapped inside a descending channel since July 2019 which drove the price to lower levels. The correction which started from July 17 level of $365 after the release of 2Q earnings which fell short of its own second-quarter subscriber estimates, drove the price down to $253 on September 24th. Immediate support for NFLX stock stands at $257, the low from October 3rd, while a break below might drive prices down to 10-month lows at $252. On the upside first resistance stands at $282, the high from September 20th while more offers will be met at $291 the 50-day moving average, next resistance can be found at $323 the 100-day moving average. Bulls need to push the price outside of the descending channel in order to attract more investors to get in and build a positive momentum.

All in all the technical picture is not bright for NFLX, but the 3Q earnings results might provide the catalyst to reverse the downtrend.

Information provided by InvestingCube.com and ATFX, Market Strategist: Nikolas Papas

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[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 21

Personal opinions today:

Over the weekend, new Brexit deal was voted down by the British parliament. The investment climate has been affected by the British parliament request to postpone Brexit deadline. It is estimated that it is difficult for the UK to smoothly pass the Brexit agreement in the short term, the British pound has increased the risk, and the Euro and pound have fell. Gold prices, crude oil prices and even global stock markets have been affected by the fluctuations. Gold and silver prices rose as risk aversion returned and equity markets fell. The USDJPY opened lower in Asian trading.

The European central bank (ECB) monetary decision on Thursday and formally announce that its new President will take over on November 1st. Later, the ECB officially restarted its TLTRO program in the hope of invigorating the European economy and bringing about recovery opportunities. At last month, the ECB next President said he was looking into the possibility of a big rate cut. This European central bank meeting, can again put forward the relevant research and release the implementation time to be watched by the market. If the ECB has such a plan, it is believed to be good for the future economy of Europe, and EURUSD has the support of investors, hoping to bullish the Euro. But under normal circumstances, a similar situation is expected this week before the release of the European central bank interest rate decision, the Euro downward.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

12:30 Japan national industrial activity index for August **
14:00 German PPI in September **
22:00 Canadian national economic confidence index **
23:00 Canadian parliamentary election ***
Japan holiday tomorrow

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.1165/1.1175 resistance
1.1100/1.1090 support
Brexit deal failed, threaten the Euro. It remains to be seen whether the UK prime minister will again present his proposals to parliament. If it is accepted by a majority of lawmakers, the Euro could test 1.12. Otherwise, retry 1.10. It is believed that the news of Brexit negotiations will continue to affect the pound and indirectly affect the Euro. Also, watch out for the possibility that the Euro could fall to 1.10 before the ECB's monetary policy decision this week.

Pound to dollar
1.2945/1.2960 resistance
1.2855/1.2840 support
The British prime minister submitted the Brexit agreement to the British parliament for a vote, but it was rejected by British MPS. The UK may fail to successfully leave the EU under the agreement by the end of October, and the pound fell, temporarily unable to break through 1.30. If the British parliament again rejects the deal this week and the European commission does not approve of a delay to Brexit, it may lead to bearish on the pound. Keep watching the GBP 1.2840 support.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6875/0.6890 resistance
0.6840/0.6825 support
The reserve bank of Australia (RBA), which has cut interest rates twice last couple of months, released update annual report for 2019 last week, which showed that Australia's economy was doing well after the rate cut and the data showed growth. In addition, China and US. trading relations continued to improve, and the success of the first round of trade negotiations was welcomed by investors, with the benefits of the Australian and New Zealand dollars. But technically, the last month's high of 0.6890 will be an important reference resistance.

Dollar to Japanese Yen
108.85/108.95 resistance
108.25/108.10 support
The Brexit agreement failed to pass the British parliament, the investment sentiment changed, Dow futures and Nikkei index futures trend failed to continue to rise, the USDJPY failed to test 109 key resistance, adjusted to fall. Last week, Dow and Nikkei futures were likely to fall, and the dollar will follow suit against the yen. It is estimated that the USDJPY will continue to follow Dow and Nikkei futures. Keep watching the Brexit deal, how affected the trend of the USDJPY.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3190/1.3200 resistance
1.3120/1.3110 support
The Canadian dollar was indirectly affected by crude oil prices fell after the British parliament failed to pass a Brexit deal. Technically, after USDCAD testing $1.31 support, it could return to $1.32 if crude oil futures prices fall.

United States crude oil futures
54.45/54.70 resistance
52.80/52.55 support
The failure of the British parliament to approve a deal to leave the European Union has bearish crude oil prices. Combined with weak U.S. economic data, crude oil prices adjusted down to $52 probably. From fundamentals to technical analysis, crude oil prices at or below $52. It could supported, and the investor possibility of make long positions at these levels is noteworthy. Important support bits focus on 52.80 and 52.55 support, respectively.

Gold
1498/1500 resistance
1486/1484 support
The price of gold has risen after British parliament failed to approve a new Brexit deal. The British prime minister has sent a letter to the European commission hoping for delay in the deadline. Investors took note of risk on, the demand increasing cause the Brexit deal failure n this moment. In addition, money may flow back into the gold market again, pushing gold prices higher as expectations of Fed rate cut and ahead of a rate hike by the European central bank (ECB). Technically, if Dow futures fall and gold prices rise, silver tends to follow gold. In the short term, it's worth watching Dow futures move, how gold prices move.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26940/27020 resistance
26720/26660 support
Dow futures failed to hold 27,000 points after the Brexit deal failed to pass British parliament. But markets are waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates, betting that weak U.S. economic data could decline Dow futures. But for technical analysis, Dow futures could still move higher if they maintain 26660 support.

BTCUSD:
8600/ 8850 resistance
7885 / 7655 support
As US economy slowdown, FOMC would consider cut Fed fund rate. It is supposed bullish for crypto currencies, such as Bitcoin and other popular crypto currencies. After the weekend, the Brexit deal failed, the the crypto market demand increasing. Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is keeping. Assuming the bitcoin price as followed the gold price. If FOMC and ECB would cut interest rate, bitcoin price could rise further.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.