1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

ATFX Market Updates 2019

Discussion in 'Company Articles' started by Kelly Yeung, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    3
    ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
    ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 8


    Personal opinions today:

    Markets expect the Fed could cut rates this month. Besides, U.S. Dow futures continued to rise in anticipation of the 13th round of US and China trade talks on Thursday. Expectations of a consensus on trade between China and the United States to improve trade tensions between China and the United States, risk aversion to cool, gold and silver prices fell.

    In European trading today, watch for Swiss unemployment in September and German industrial output in August, which could affect Switzerland and the Euro, respectively. Generally speaking, the above data can affect the same trend of the two countries' currencies. As the time approaches for Brexit, the British parliament should take note of the fall in the pound without constructive negotiations with the EU. U.S. market hours, the U.S. September PPI, Fed officials and chairman of the speech. The crude oil futures market, watch the U.S. API crude oil inventory last week, crude oil futures market and price fluctuations.

    [Important financial data and events]
    Note: * is the degree of importance


    Summertime is in effect in Australia
    GMT+3 is the time of the trading platform. The above arrangements are subject to change without prior notice.


    07:50 Japan August trade account *
    09:45 China Caixin services PMI in September **
    13:45 Swiss unemployment rate in September **
    14:00 German industrial output in August ***
    18:00 U.S. NFIB small business confidence index **
    20:30 US PPI in September ***
    The next day 01:35 Fed Evans speaks **
    The next day 01:50 Federal chairman Powell speech ***
    The next day 04:30 US API crude oil stocks change ***


    Today's suggestion:

    Euro/dollar
    1.0995/1.1015 resistance
    1.0955/1.0935 support
    Swiss unemployment in September and German industrial output in August, consensus expectations improved from the previous month, U.S. economic data was weak, the dollar may have fallen, and the Euro took the opportunity to rebound, but the hard to 1.1000 resistance without any good reasons. If today's US September PPI and speeches by Fed officials or Fed chairman confirm that the Fed is considering cutting interest rates at the end of this month, the Euro could test or break the resistance after the current correction. Technical, short - term support pay attention to 1.0955 support, resistance 1.0995.

    Pound to dollar
    1.2360/1.2380 resistance
    1.2270/1.2250 support
    Brexit is a serious matter. As mentioned above, the deadline for the UK to leave the EU is approaching, and the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU still fail to proceed smoothly or see any consensus to leave the EU or delay the deadline. Fundamentals lead to bearish the pound; the estimated target will be down 1.22 level and extended to 1.21. If any favourable agreement stimulates pound, it could test 1.2380 resistance. On the contrary, if Brexit deal unfavourite the UK, the pound could fall to 1.21. Today could be influenced by weak U.S. economic data or comments from the federal reserve. Pound would test the initial resistance at 1.2360.

    Australian dollar to US dollar
    0.6770/0.6780 resistance
    0.6725/0.6715 support
    This Thursday is the 13th round of US and China trade talks, any good news, which is likely to bullish the Australian dollar. Besides, the Fed would cut the rate. If the US dollar falls, the Australian and New Zealand dollar. Technical trend analysis, if the Australian dollar sticks to 0.6725 to 0.6715 support level is expected to rebound up 0.6780 resistance, more likely up 0.68 level.

    Dollar/yen
    107.45/107.70 resistance
    107.05/106.90 support
    Dow futures and Nikkei index futures rose as investment sentiment picked up ahead of the upcoming US and China trade talks, while the USDJPY also rose. The dollar is likely to test 107.35 resistance against the yen yesterday as U.S. trade talks with China approach, bullish Dow and Nikkei futures. Continue to refer to the Dow futures, how to lead the dollar against the yen trend. Technically, the USDJPY rebound wave near the current market price level respectively is 107.45 and 107.70. Supports bits 107.05 and 106.90.

    U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
    1.3325/1.3340 resistance
    1.3290/1.3275 support
    The international trade and sentiment is still tense, the trend of oil price is uncertain, the decline of crude oil price continues without significant improvement, and the USDCAD is testing resistance. In short-term, the market focuses the German industrial output in August, U.S. PPI in September and the U.S. crude oil inventories. Also, Fed officials and chairman speech, it would affect the crude oil prices. If crude oil prices are bearish by weak production data in Europe and the United States and a sharp rise in crude oil inventories, the USDCAD could test 1.3325 or 1.3340 resistance. Otherwise, would check the support for 1.3290 or 1.3275.

    US crude oil futures
    53.55/53.90 resistance
    52.15/51.75 support
    U.S. manufacturing PMI fell for the third straight month, and non-manufacturing PMI fell for the first time. Earlier
    , the Chicago PMI and the Dallas fed's business activity index fell below market expectations. U.S. ADP and official U.S. nonfarm payrolls were weak in September, and oil futures prices fell on concerns about the impact on crude oil demand. For now, the market is focused on the success of the US and China trade talks, with some support for crude oil prices. In the short term, it's important to keep an eye on European and U.S. production data today, crude oil inventories and Fed and US Presidents speak. The commentary can affect the price of crude oil. If any data weak or Fed officials would not cut rate that could bearish crude oil prices. If the trade talks going well, it could lead to higher crude oil prices.

    Gold
    1510/1512 resistance
    1489/1487 support
    If German industrial output in August or U.S. producer prices in September, all weak. Any comments from the federal reserve that it would cut interest rates that could justify a rebound in gold prices. At present, the market is waiting for the above data before, taking advantage of the improved investment sentiment of US and China trade talks and the cooling of risk aversion, such as last week's trend, gold prices fell first. If the all above mentions data is weak, and the fed will consider cutting interest rates soon. Or the US and China trade talks could fall apart without progress. These things, presumably, could trigger a sharp rise in the price of gold. Technical trends, resistance at $1518 and $1520, support at $1465 and $1463 are being watched. In the short term, there is nothing to do. Look out for $1489 or $1487 support, $1510 or $1512 resistance. Most important, Dow futures and gold prices in trends often move in opposite directions. Such as, Dow futures rose, while gold fell.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    26660/26815 resistance
    26265/26110 support
    Most U.S. data for September fell, below the market expectations, and Dow futures fell. With the current China-US trade talks, part of the investment climate improved, Dow futures rose. If the market is looking forward to the China-US trade talks on Thursday, there is any negative news, the investment sentiment fell. Dow futures could fall if a U.S. President Trump speaks destroyed the 13th-trade talks.

    BTCUSD:
    8550/ 8800 resistance
    7960 / 7885 support
    Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is significant. After tests the critical support, then the bitcoin price rebounded. Most recently, If the gold price rose, the bitcoin price would follow. If any adjustment again, it would look at US7885 that critical support. Next, it would test 8550 or 8800 resistance.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

    Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
     
  2. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    3
    ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
    ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 9


    Personal opinions today:

    The US President's comments bearish markets and increased the risks of 13th round of trade talks tomorrow. US core producer price index fell in September, U.S. Dow futures turned from positive to negative, down over 300 points. The yen, gold and silver rose. After that, Fed officials and the Fed chairman released hawkish comments, saying that the Fed would keep interest rates, but would consider restarting to buyin US bond program to boost market liquidity and ease the rise in the yen, gold and silver prices.

    In European trading today, watch the Bank of England release a summary of its financial policy. Before the announcement, the pound fell yesterday, breaking through 1.2200 support. The dollar and Dow futures continue to face downside risks following weak September data already released in the United States, which is expected to report weak August wholesale sales today. U.S. API crude oil inventories rose sharply last week, and it is believed that EIA crude oil inventories also rose, limiting the rise in crude oil futures prices and making it more likely that the trend will remain weak. The next day, the federal reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting at 02:00. If there is a significant increase in the percentage of dovish fed officials, or if officials say they need to consider further rate cuts, watch out for the risk of a weaker dollar. But comments on rate cuts could help dow futures recoup some of their losses.

    [Important financial data and events]
    Note: * is the degree of importance


    14:30 France business confidence index for September *
    16:00 China M2 money supply in September **
    16:30 Bank of England releases a summary ***
    22:00 US wholesale sales in August **
    22:30 Fed chairman Powell chairs speaks ***
    22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change **
    The next day at 02:00 Federal reserve minutes ***


    Today's suggestion:

    Euro/dollar
    1.0995/1.1015 resistance
    1.0955/1.0940 support
    Swiss unemployment in September and German industrial output in August improved from the previous month, while weak U.S. economic data yesterday sent the dollar down and the euro first to challenge the 1.0995 resistance. Following the Fed's hawkish comments, the euro adjusted. But today's forecast of weak U.S. economic data and the release of minutes from the federal reserve's monetary policy meeting could see the euro find resistance again after the current correction. Technically, the short - term support level 1.0940 attention important support, resistance level 1.0995. Of course, if the British pound below 1.2200 support and extending the decline, may indirectly affect the euro's decline.

    Pound/ dollar
    1.2260/1.2280 resistance
    1.2170/1.2150 support
    Brexit deadline for Britain to leave the European Union approaches, the two countries have failed to reach a consensus in the negotiations, which will lead to a negative effect on the pound. According to the original trend, the pound will fall to the level of 1.21. Of course, any favorable Brexit deal, or any event that causes the dollar to fall, could bullish the pound. The bank of England releases a summary of its financial policy and U.S. economic data, or Fed comments, today. The above time may affect the pound fluctuations.

    Australian dollar to US dollar
    0.6745/0.6760 resistance
    0.6720/0.6705 support
    The US President's comments have raised concerns about the success of the 13th round of US-China trade talks tomorrow, bearish the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, Fed officials said the chances of a rate cut were also negative for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. If trade talks do not make any results, or the US economic data well, the Australian and New Zealand dollars may further break through 0.6705 support.

    Dollar/yen
    107.25/107.40 resistance
    106.85/106.70 support
    Although the US-China trade talks start tomorrow, the investment sentiment tension. Because the US President's negative remarks and saw the Dow futures and Nikkei index futures trend fell, the USDJPY trend also followed the decline. The USDJPY hit the resistance, then the trend reversed and USDJPY decline further. If any market attitude changes, the Dow futures trend will leading the USDJPY trend. Short-term significant resistance is estimated at 107.40.

    U.S. dollar / Canadian dollar
    1.3325/1.3340 resistance
    1.3290/1.3275 support
    The international trade is tense; crude oil inventories have increased significantly, the International crude oil demand is not apparent. Crude oil prices continue to fall momentum, do not see a significant improvement; the dollar against the Canadian dollar may test resistance opportunities increased. If crude oil prices continue to fall, the USDCAD could test 1.3340 resistance. Otherwise explore 1.3275 support.

    US crude oil futures
    53.05/53.55 resistance
    51.20/50.65 support
    Make it simply, the market found the U.S. economic data for September remained weak, trade talks between China and the U.S. could hit a snaggly wall, markets worried about the impact on crude oil demand, and oil futures prices fell. For now, if any successful trade deal between the U.S. and China could support higher crude oil prices. Also, keep an eye out for productivity and manufacturing data in Europe and the United States, as well as Fed officials or chairmen speaks. Any news can affect the price of crude oil. Weak data or Fed officials not considering a planned rate cut, it could bearish crude oil prices. If the trade negotiations are successful, it is expected to increase crude oil prices.

    Gold
    1510/1512 resistance
    1498/1496 support
    US President's negative remarks affect the investment sentiment. Dow futures fell, following a rise in gold. Conversely, if today or coming future the Dow futures rise, gold prices fall.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    26320/26425 resistance
    26090/25985 support
    Dow futures fell yesterday after most of the September data were lower expected and negative comments from the US President hurts progress in US-China trade talks. Dow futures recovered some of their losses on hopes that trade talks between the U.S. and China will begin tomorrow. If there is any negative news, the investment sentiment tension it would bearish global stock market. Dow futures could fall if the U.S. President again derailed trade talks. Of course, weak U.S. economic data and the Fed has no plans to cut interest rates have not only limited gains in dow futures, but are likely to test lows. Technically, the initial significant support bit is 25985.

    BTCUSD:
    8550/ 8800 resistance
    7960 / 7885 support
    Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is very important. After tests the critical support then the bitcoin price rebounded. Assuming that if gold price rose, the bitcoin price would follow. In this moment, it would look at US7885 support. Next, if rebounds, it would test 8550 or 8800 resistance.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

    Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
     
  3. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    3
    [​IMG]

    For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


    Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

    ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
    • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
    • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
    • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
    • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
    • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
     
  4. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    3
    ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
    ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 10


    Personal opinions today:

    The US President said that the 13th round of trade talks, which starts today, could lead to a consensus and agreement. The U.S. Dow Jones industrial average rose more than 200 points in early trading. Dow futures turned from positive to negative after the trade talks to facing the deal. Besides, the chairman of the federal reserve said in the minutes of the fed's rate-setting meeting that U.S. businesses expected the fed to cut interest rates more, which was not good for the U.S. economic outlook. On the facing of the fed intends to hawkish. Dow futures turned lower after the stock spot market closed, leading Asian stocks lower. Dow futures fell, and gold and silver extended gains, which had risen as high as $1,516 before easing in Asian trading yesterday.

    During today's European trading session, watch for the German August trade account and current account, the UK August trade in goods account and UK August industrial and manufacturing output. More notable was the release of minutes from the European central bank's monetary policy meeting. The Euro, the Swiss franc and the pound came downward on expectations of weak European economic data and before the release of the minutes of the ECB's monetary policy meeting.

    With the release of the U.S. consumer price index for September and U.S. jobless claims last week, the dollar and dow futures are expected to face downside risks if the data is weaker than expected. More importantly, during today's great day of US-China trade deal, please keep an eye on the progress of the negotiations during the US trading hours. Investors can use Dow futures and gold prices to judge the progress. If so, in line with market estimates, there may be no progress on the agenda and a chance of a breakdown in the talks, leading to a fall in Dow futures and global stocks, a fall in crude oil prices and thus a rise in gold and silver prices, as well as the yen.

    [Important financial data and events]
    Note: * is the degree of importance


    14:00 Germany trade account and current account ***
    14:45 French industrial output in August **
    16:30 UK trade account for August ***
    16:30 UK industrial and manufacturing output in August **
    19:30 ECB releases minutes ***
    20:30 US September CPI ***
    20:30 U.S. jobless claims ***
    23:00 OPEC market report **
    The next day 03:00 Fed Bullard speaks


    Today's suggestion:

    Euro/dollar
    1.0995/1.1015 resistance
    1.0955/1.0940 support
    Germany trade account and current account for August and France industrial output for August are expected to fall from the previous month. And the European central bank released monetary policy minutes, bearish Euro. European trading session, believe the Euro fails to test 1.0995 resistance. But the Euro is expected to find resistance again after adjusting to facing the weak U.S. inflation data today and a lack of progress in trade talks. Technically, the short-term support level for 1.0940 important support, initial resistance level 1.0995. Of course, the GBPUSD movement may indirectly affect the Euro.

    Pound/ dollar
    1.2260/1.2280 resistance
    1.2170/1.2150 support
    In European trading yesterday, markets expected weak U.S. economic data and a possible Fed rate cut. Combined with the British prime minister's negotiations with the European Union, the pound was as high as 1.2290. But the Brexit new deal to leave the EU has been rejected by the EU. The market believes there is still no success, leading to bearish the pound again. The pound will have a chance to test the 1.21 level. Of course, any time there is a good Brexit deal or any event that causes the dollar to fall, it could be bullish the pound in the short term. Technically, the British pound is likely to find resistance again after adjusting to weak U.S. inflation data and the lack of progress in trade talks.

    Australian dollar to US dollar
    0.6755/0.6770 resistance
    0.6720/0.6705 support
    The 13th round of US-China trade talks today saw the market wait and see, stabilizing the Australian dollar. Besides, the expected weak U.S. inflation data today and the lack of progress in trade talks are likely to lead to a bullish AUDUSD and NZDUSD ahead of the U.S. inflation data. If the trade talks do not make any deal, it is expected to be bearish for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Technically, if the AUDUSD failed to break 0.6770 resistance, the trend is still bearish.

    Dollar/yen
    107.75/107.90 resistance
    107.05/106.90 support
    Although the US-China trade talks opened today, the market still holds the optimistic attitude, and investment sentiment seems increased; unfortunately, the US President negative remarks, Dow futures and Nikkei index futures trend still have downside opportunities. If the trade talks fail today, Dow and Nikkei futures fall, the dollar will follow fall against the yen. Due to trade negotiation, the trend of China A50 also fell along with the trade talks and affected the direction of the dollar against the yen.

    U.S. dollar / Canadian dollar
    1.3340/1.3355 resistance
    1.3290/1.3275 support
    Recently here we pointed out that the international trade tensions, crude oil inventories increased significantly, the oil price trend is uncertain. Crude oil prices continue to fall momentum, cannot find any improvement. With the trade talks uncertainty, the USDCAD is testing 1.3275 support and 1.3355 resistance. If, however, the trade war does not improve or progress is made, the U.S. dollar could rise against the Canadian dollar and the Chinese yuan. More importantly, the Canadian dollar's slide widened on worries about falling oil prices.

    US crude oil futures
    53.55/54.05 resistance
    51.20/50.65 support
    U.S. economic data for September continued to be weak, and trade talks between China and the United States were on the stage, raising concerns that the negotiations could hit a snagged path that could bearish the crude oil demand and bearish oil futures prices. If the trade talks are successful, then the crude oil prices would rise.

    Gold
    1514/1516 resistance
    1498/1496 support
    US President speaks, and negative remarks affect the investment sentiment. Dow futures fell yesterday, following a rise in gold. If Dow futures rise, gold prices drop in trade talks today. Conversely, the price of gold rose.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    26320/26425 resistance
    26090/25985 support
    Dow futures fell yesterday after most of the September data were widely expected, combined with negative comments from the U.S. President and an impact on US.-China trade talks. Dow futures covered the losses and rose sharply after the U.S. President responded positively to trade talks. If there is any negative news about the trade talks, the investment sentiment will drop, Dow futures could fall. Of course, today's expected weak U.S. economic data will limit the rise in Dow futures and more likely test support.

    BTCUSD:
    8900/ 9200 resistance
    8000 / 7885 support
    Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is significant. After fails to test the critical support, then the bitcoin price followed the gold price rebounded. As here mentioned, we are assuming that if the gold price rose, the bitcoin price would follow. At this moment, the bitcoin price tested 8550 resistance. Next, it would test 8900 or 9200 resistance if the US-China trade talks failure.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

    Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
     
  5. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    3
    [​IMG]

    For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


    Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

    ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
    • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
    • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
    • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
    • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
    • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
     
  6. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    3
    ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
    ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 11


    Personal opinions today:

    China and US trade talks opened. China and the United States improved relations, investment sentiment improved, risk aversion cooled. Dow futures rose, testing early of the month highs. Demand for gold and the yen fell, the price of silver followed the price of gold, which also fell.

    However, now we saw the trade relations improved, but failed to support the dollar appreciations. As the U.S. reported the consumer prices in September as fell, the market is thinking the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 percentage points. The chance to move up to 78%. The dollar fell, creating a rise in European currencies and commodity currencies rose. Besides, the Saudi crude oil organisation and OPEC plan to cut production to stabilise oil prices and prepare for the listing of Saudi Aramco, China and US trade negotiations are expected to progress well. Crude oil rebounded from its low last night, hit $54 after highs earlier this month.

    European markets opened today, with Germany's final monthly CPI reading for September followed by the IEA's monthly oil market report. U.S. markets opened with an eye on the September import price index and the Michigan consumer confidence index for October. Prior to the release of the data, the trend of relevant currencies will be based on market expectations. In addition, as the 13th round of China and US trade talks in the second day. If trade talks going well, dow futures rose then gold prices and the yen fell.

    [Important financial data and events]
    Note: * is the degree of importance


    14:00 Germany monthly CPI data for September ***
    16:00 China M2 money supply annualized in September **
    16:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report **
    20:30 US import price index for September **
    22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index ***
    The next day 01:15 Federal reserve chairman spoke **


    Today's suggestion:

    Euro/dollar
    1.1035/1.1050 resistance
    1.0985/1.0970 support
    The ECB minutes and German economic data did not surprise the markets, but the Euro got a boost from U.S. consumer prices drop in September and speculation that the federal reserve would cut interest rates. Today European markets opened, Germany released the final September CPI rate. If the outcome is weak and less than expected, the Euro correction could be deeply. In addition, the progress of China and US trade talks is also the key to the trend of the dollar and the Euro. On a fundamental, European economic data don't have much reason to bullish the Euro. But a stronger pound could support the Euro rise that indirectly affect the Euro.

    Pound to dollar
    1.2460/1.2480 resistance
    1.2370/1.2350 support
    The British prime minister has negotiated with the European Union, EU will consider a New Deal with the British government or other options for a Brexit with serious problems created. The pound rose sharply. However, the new Brexit deal has been rejected by the EU and the Brexit issue is once again serious, which may still lead to a negative pound. Any time there is a favorable Brexit deal or any event that causes the dollar to fall could bullish pound in the short term, it said yesterday. After yesterday's new UK proposals and the weak US inflation data, pound is likely to test resistance again. Investors would looking the half year earlier high in this moment.

    Australian dollar to US dollar
    0.6785/0.6800 resistance
    0.6745/0.6730 support
    The 13th round of China and US trade talks was formally held, and the market watched and stabilized the trend of the Australian dollar. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain on the sidelines at a time when U.S. inflation data are weak and trade talks between the U.S. and China have yet to yield real results. If the trade talks succeed, it is expected to bullish Australian and New Zealand dollars.

    Dollar/yen
    108.30/108.45 resistance
    107.75/107.60 support
    China and the United States trade talks held, the market to wait and see, investors keep looking forward. While Dow and Nikkei futures rose, the dollar rose above 108 against the yen. If the talks talks fail and Dow and Nikkei futures fall, be aware that the dollar will follow suit against the yen. Assuming that the investment sentiment is good, the dollar would expected to test the early resistance 108.45.

    U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
    1.3330/1.3345 resistance
    1.3275/1.3269 support
    Crude oil prices rebounded and the dollar fell against the Canadian dollar. In addition, as trade talks and negotiations progressed well. However , the US inflation fell and expected to cut interest rates. USDCAD testing 1.3275 support. If, however, the US and China trade war doesn't get off the ground, the U.S. dollar rises against the Canadian dollar. More important is to see crude oil prices fell, Canadian dollar decline widened.

    United States crude oil futures
    54.05/54.55 resistance
    52.65/52.15 support
    U.S. economic data for September continued to be weak, and tongshen fell. The trade war between the US and Europe is heating up and demand for crude oil is expected to slow. News that OPEC was planning to cut output and that trade talks between the U.S. and China were progressing well boosted crude futures prices. If the trade talks are successful, oil prices could rise and fall. At the moment the key resistance, 54.05 and 54.55. A breakout could extend to $56, or $52.

    Gold
    1514/1516 resistance
    1492/1490 support
    Although, US and China trade talks are going well, some smart money is leaving the gold market, inflowing to stock market. Dow futures rose and gold fell. But US both economy and inflation fell in September. If the Fed will cut interest rates, and the dollar would flow back into the gold market. It would believe that with the conclusion of US and China trade consultation and the return of market focus, gold may be pursued.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    26670/26775 resistance
    26445/26255 support
    Most of US data in the September weak, U.S. inflation also fell in September. Fortunately, trade talks between the U.S. and China going well, investment sentiment improved a bit, and Dow futures recovered losses and rose. Please keep watching, any news from trade talks. If bad news, the investment climate will drop then Dow futures could fall.

    BTCUSD:
    8900/ 9200 resistance
    8000 / 7885 support
    US CPI fell in September. FOMC would consider cut Fed fund rate. Good for crypto currencies. Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is very important. Assuming the bitcoin price as followed the gold price rebounded. The bitcoin price would test 8900 or 9200 resistance

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

    Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
     
  7. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    3
    [​IMG]

    For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


    Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

    ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
    • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
    • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
    • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
    • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
    • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
     

Share This Page