ATFX Market Updates 2019

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
516
Alibaba after a strong earnings report in November plans to issue 500 million new shares plus an additional 75 million “greenshoe” option next week. The greenshoe gives the underwriters the ability to sell more stocks than the original amount set, of those 500 million shares, the 50 million shares will be sold to retail investors. BABA said those retail shares will be priced at no more than 188 HK. The offer price for both the international and the Hong Kong public offering has been set at HK$176 per share. BABA’s Hong Kong listing will be the largest stock offering across the globe for 2019.
The BABA stock price performance has run an impressive rebound since the June lows and registering 22% gaIns for the year, while the S&P 500 is gaining 23% the same period.

BABA beat market consensus expectations in the November earnings report. Revenue was RMB119,017 million (US$16,651 million), an increase of 40% year-over-year. The Annual active consumers on the China retail marketplaces reached 693 million, an increase of 19 million from the 12 months ended June 30, 2019.
Mobile MAUs on the company’s China retail marketplaces reached 785 million in September 2019, an increase of 30 million over June 2019. Income from operations was RMB20,364 million (US$2,849 million), an increase of 51% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA, increased 39% year-over-year to RMB37,101 million (US$5,191 million). The non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was RMB13.10 (US$1.83), an increase of 36% year-over-year.
BABA Cloud computing revenue increased by 64% (YoY) to RMB9,291 million (US$1,300 million) during the September quarter, driven by an increase in average revenue per customer. As of August 4th 2019, 59% of companies listed in China are customers of Alibaba Cloud.
Despite the trade tensions between US and China, BABA managed to avoid damage in the bottom line as it’s wide diversification helps the company to preserve the revenues and earnings. Alibaba has rolled out various services aiming to eliminate the trade war impact on its bottom line.

Alibaba Valuation is still Attractive
Alibaba stock trades at 22.37 P/E making the BABA stock attractive against its competitors, BABA’s Enterprise Value to EBITDA is 28.70, compare this to Amazon’s 26.07. This makes Alibaba stock cheap on a P/E basis, but slightly overvalued on an EV/EBITDA basis.


Alibaba BABA Technical Analysis
On the technical analysis side, the picture is bullish as BABA is trading above all the major daily moving averages and continues above the ascending trendline which started in January 2019. Traders now focus to the upside, where immediate resistance for BABA stands at $186.89 the top from November, while if the stock breaks above that level, the next target will be the resistance at 188.40 which is the high from November 8th before an attempt to yearly highs.
On the other hand, Alibaba stock will find first support at $181.30 the low from November 20, while extra bids will emerge at $176.39 the 50-day moving average. In case the stock breaks below that level bears will target the 100-day moving average at $173.61.

Information provided by InvestingCube.com and ATFX, Market Strategist: Nikolas Papas

Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555). Registered Office: 32 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3SG. Company No. 09827091
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
516
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 27


Personal opinions today:

The US President said that China and US trade deals were close to finalising the first phase, lead to drafting a text. The market is predicting that if the agreement is implemented soon, the U.S. government will probably suspend the threat of additional import tariffs worth $150 billion to China and promote economic development. The news lifted Dow futures again to a near half-year closing high, offsetting yesterday's weak US economic data. But consistently, U.S. economic data has been weaker than market expectations, potentially affecting the Fed’s monetary policy. The dollar index adjusted gains, gold and silver prices rose, European currencies rose slightly. U.S. API crude stocks were declined compared with last week, but still higher than market expectations, with US crude oil prices limiting the $58.50 resistance.

This evening, the final reading of real U.S. GDP for the third quarter, weekly jobless claims, October durable goods orders and the core U.S. PCE price index will provide valuable guidance for the U.S. economy in the first part of the fourth quarter and are more likely to influence market views of the federal reserve's December 11 monetary meeting. So investors will find an essential clue in the Fed Beige Book-report on the state of the economy at 3 a.m. tomorrow. Stock markets, gold prices and the dollar index are expected to fluctuate between the start and end of today's U.S. trading session.

This weekend is the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday; investors need to consider investment institutions may use the holiday positioning, various asset prices may reverse the trend.

Note: * refers to the degree of importance

17:00 Swiss ZEW investor confidence index *
21:30 U.S. revised real Q3 GDP ***
21:30 U.S. jobless claims last week ***
21:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ***
22:45 U.S. Chicago November PMI **
23:00 U.S. Personal spending **
23:00 U.S. core PCE price index ***
23:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory **
The next day 3:00 Fed Beige Book ***


Euro/dollar
1.1030/1. 1040 resistance
1.0995/1.0985 support
Despite the recent the performance of Eurozone economic data weak. Assuming that ECB monetary policy will maintain negative interest rates for a long time, which is bearish for the Euro. But yesterday, the U.S. economy was weak, and the market is expected U.S. economic data, and Fed Beige Book may bring weak U.S. economic information. On the sidelines, short - term Euro. Technically, the Euro limited to 1.1030 or 1.1040 resistance. If the U.S. economic data this evening and the Fed Beige Book all not disappoint the market and investors. The dollar rose, and the Euro may test 1.0985 support. If the breakthrough support will be test 1.0955 support.

British pound to dollar
1.2885/1.2905 resistance
1.2815/1.2800 support
The British pound was capped at $1.2905 yesterday on expectations of stronger US economic data. The market is looking ahead to today's expected US economic data and the results of the Fed Beige Book report on the state of the US economy, the pound fell and reached 1.2840. While the market is on the sidelines, the GBP is expected to have an opportunity to test support at 1.2815 or 1.2800. If not any news is not likely to boost the pound, the important resistance level maintained 1.2905 resistance.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6795/0.6805 resistance
0.6765/0.6755 support
Australia's economic confidence index continued to fall, limiting the AUDUSD. RBA President Paul Lowe comments yesterday on Australia's inflation performance is not optimistic, bearish Australian dollar. Relative to New Zealand economic growth, the New Zealand dollar rose against the United States dollar, the Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar cross - trade fell. Technically, the Australian dollar is currently down to support to 0.6765 or 0.6755. But it is worth keeping in mind for investors that trade talks between the U.S. and China may be nearing completion, which could also bullish the Australian dollar. If the AUDUSD breaks through 0.6805 resistance, the first target is expected to be 0.6855 or 0.6885, respectively.

Dollar/Japanese yen
109.30/109.40 resistance
108.80/108.70 support
It was reported yesterday that the US and China trade deals, it is closing to complete the first phase of the agreement and is arranging a high-level meeting. Take this; investor strengthens investment confidence, Dow and Asian stock market build well, drive the dollar to rise against Japanese yen. Technical analysis expected that the USDJPY, 108.80 and 108.70 for the current reference support level. If Dow and Nikkei futures continue to grow, it is possible to extend the surge. The dollar also benefited against the Japanese yen. If the first stage breaks through 109.15, it can challenge the important resistance of 109.40 to the upper level.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3310/1.3320 resistance
1.3255/1.3245 support
OPEC plans to discuss a deal to cut crude production in December, and U.S. crude inventories declined, bullish crude oil prices and indirectly bullish the Canadian dollar. Progress on a trade deal between Canada and the United States is now expected in December. If it would boosting trade between the two countries and potentially bullish the Canadian dollar. Today the US data would lead the trends of the Canadian dollar. Technically, if USDCAD breaks through 1.3255 or 1.3245 support. Look down 1.3205 or 1.3185 support, respectively.

United States crude oil futures
59.05/59.35 resistance
57.05/56.85 support
OPEC and the Russian government initially agreed to cut crude oil production, bullish crude oil prices. International trade atmosphere to further improve, crude oil prices are expected to test $58. The United States reported a drop in API crude oil inventories, believe the U.S. EIA crude oil inventories also fell. In the short term, see if the crude oil inventory data can push crude oil prices even higher. More focus tonight, the U.S. economic data and the Fed Beige Book. Technically, watching for resistance in the $59 to $60 range for crude oil futures if it shows US strong economic growth. If the trend reverses, pay attention to the first target, 56.85 support.

Gold
1463/1465 resistance
1452/1450 support
Dow futures rose despite a prosperous outlook for trade talks. But gold prices were boosted last night by weak US economic data and increased risk aversion. But higher Dow futures limited gold's gains, stopping at $1,462. An estimated rebound in gold to $1,465 was technically limited as markets focused on tonight's U.S. economic data and the federal reserve's beige book. If fundamentals point to a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, gold has downside risk.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28160/28215 resistance
27975/27870 support
China and the U.S. trade department are in active negotiations to implement the first phase of a trade agreement and have the opportunity to suspend the imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese imports. Rising investment sentiment lifted Dow futures to a record close. Technically, the short-term focus Dow futures 27975 and 27870 support. If the U.S. economy continues to show significant growth, Dow futures could look to break through 28160 and 28215 resistance, the second target. Also, focus on tonight's U.S. economic data and the Fed Beige Book, with an increased chance for Dow futures to break through resistance if the outlook for the U.S. economy is positive.

BTCUSD:
7280/ 7400 resistance
6450/ 6250 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price now under US7885 support, keeps to looking at the trends go down. If any reasons let Dow future fell, it is good news for cryptocurrency, and the bitcoin price could rebound. But now, the bitcoin price could test US6450 or US6250 support. Critical support, it would US5800.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
516

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
  • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
516
Germany's Q3 GDP came in better than expected after showing limited growth in the euro zone's largest economy by 0.1% QoQ and 0.5% YoY, showing a consolidation in the economy after GDP growth slowed in the second quarter of this year, it was essentially -0.2%. The main reason for the markets was for the index to contract for two consecutive quarters to technically enter the recession, which did not happen.


Perhaps most important in the GDP details to note the following two main points:
First, the labour market has improved overall
The index reveals that the total number of employees in the German labour market reached 45.4 million. This represents an increase of 356,000 employees, or 0.8%, over the previous year. Which is puts the number of workers at the highest level since 1990. It is also remarkable that overall labour productivity improved substantially from the level of the previous year. After labour productivity rose 0.2%.
The improvement in the German labour market extended to the other hand, where total wages and salaries of employees increased by 4.3% compared to the third quarter of 2018, as well as net wages and salaries increased by 4.7% on average, and given the change in wages salaries per worker, we will note that wages and salaries per employee did not rise that much, only increased by 3.2% in growth and 3.6% in net terms. This softer wages and salaries increase per employee can be explained by the rise in the total number of employments, which grew by 1.0% compared to the same quarter a year ago. While household disposable income increased by 3.4%, it is almost the same as the rate of increase in household final consumer spending at current prices 3.5%.
Second, improved consumer spending saved the German economy from recession
Looking consumer spending at the quarterly comparison, it had a positive impact on the improvement in the GDP reading. Also, the fixed capital formation in the construction sector grew significantly from the previous quarter by (+ 1.2%). Fixed capital formation on R & D expenses also rose 1.0%. The growth of foreign trade has made a positive contribution to economic growth. Exports rose 1.0% in the second quarter of 2019, which saw a sharp decline in commodity exports. While the imports in the third quarter of 2019 remained almost in the previous quarter level.

Information provided by ATFX (AE) Head of Market Research: Ramy Abouzaid

Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555). Registered Office: 32 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3SG. Company No. 09827091
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
516
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 28


Personal opinions today:

The final reading of U.S. real GDP in the third quarter was 2.1%, up sharply from 1.9% in the previous report. Besides, the jobless claims fell to 210,000 last week, a significant improvement from the past two weeks. The only disappointment was a drop in personal income and consumer spending, coupled with a lower than an expected PCE price index. The market has been watching the U.S. economy as a whole, depending on the Fed monetary policy direction. This morning, the Fed Beige Book economic report noted that the U.S. economy expanded modestly between October and mid-November, with an optimistic outlook for overall economic growth, a still-tight job market across the country and modest upward pressure on wages. The report said consumer spending was stable to moderate in most of the 12 federal jurisdictions, while retail and manufacturer costs rose in some areas, some citing tariffs. These factors support Dow futures continue to create new highs to close. But with the long U.S. Thanksgiving holiday expected this weekend, investors and investors are cautious and retail sales likely to reposition ahead of the holiday season, which could limit gains in dow futures and asset prices.

[Important financial data and events]
note: * is important


U.S. stocks were closed on the eve of the Thanksgiving holiday, and the market for commodity futures contracts closed early

18:00 Eurozone economic and industrial sentiment index **
18:00 Eurozone consumer confidence index Final **
21:00 German CPI preliminary ***
21:30 Canada Q3 current account ***


EURUSD
1.1020/1. 1030 resistance
1.0995/1.0985 support
Despite recent lacklustre European economic data, the President of the European central bank said the monetary policy would remain negative for an extended period, which would be bad for the euro. The Fed Beige Book report showed a message of moderate U.S. growth, bullish for the dollar and bearish for the euro. Today's final reading on consumer confidence in the Eurozone and the preliminary reading on the German CPI for November. On the sidelines, the short - term may be bullish for the Euro. The Euro could test 1.1030 against the dollar if Germany beats market expectations for its November CPI reading. Conversely, if the data is weak, the euro could check 1.0985 support against the dollar. If the support is broken, 1.0955 support will be tested.

British pound to dollar
1.2960/1.2970 resistance
1.2875/1.2865 support
The pound was boosted by British opinion polls showing the ruling conservative party leading by a wide margin to win the House of Commons election in December and lead by a wide margin to lead an orderly Brexit. British pound broke through resistance at 1.2905 yesterday and is expected to be closed for the US holiday without US economic data.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6795/0.6805 resistance
0.6755/0.6745 support
Confidence in the Australian economy continued to fall and reserve bank of Australia chairman Lowe was bearish on the Australian dollar after her comments on inflation were negative. This morning, the US President signed the Civil Rights Act, which may affect the US-China trade talks, indirectly bearish for the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar had tested 0.6755 support against the U.S. dollar. If the Chinese government does not respond today, believed that it would remove the risk of the Australian dollar falling. As long as China's trade negotiations with the United States succeed. Technically, if AUDUSD can break through 0.6805 resistance, see 0.6855 or 0.6885 for lower targets.

Dollar to Japanese yen
109.55/109.65 resistance
109.10/109.00 support
The U.S. dollar rose against the yen on the back of positive news from the U.S. Fed Beige Book economic conditions report on the U.S. economy. If we break 109.15 in the first stage, we will break through the significant resistance in the next level. At present, if the USDJPY to maintain the upward trend, could test 109.65 or 109.85 resistance. However, considering the U.S. holiday, investment climate under the cautious, estimated current direction has an opportunity to adjust. Technically, target support bit 109.00 is supported.

USDCAD
1.3310/1.3320 resistance
1.3275/1.3265 support
Canada and the United States have made tentative progress on a trade deal but still, haven't reached an agreement on parts of it. Technically, USDCAD would test 1.3320 resistance. If crude oil stays above $57 and breaks above $58.50, it could be bullish the Canadian dollar. It would check 1.3265 support.

US crude oil futures
58.50/59.05 resistance
57.05/56.85 support
OPEC and the Russian government initially agreed to cut crude oil production, bullish crude oil prices. International trade climate needs to improve further, with crude oil expected to test $58. U.S. economic data and the Fed Beige Book report, which showed strong economic growth, are expected to help lift oil prices. If the trend reverses, keep an eye on the first target, 56.85 support.

Gold
1463/1465 resistance
1453/1451 support
Real U.S. GDP growth beat market expectations in the third quarter, the Fed Beige Book showed economic growth, and Dow futures rose to limit gold's gains in the $1,461 to $1,463 range. If markets remain optimistic about the prospects for the U.S. economy, the success of international trade deals and Brexit. Believe that the price of gold downward opportunities higher. If support breaks $1,451, have a chance to look at $1,445 to $1,442.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28160/28215 resistance
28030/27975 support
China and the U.S. in active trade talks, U.S. GDP growth beat expectations in the third quarter, the Fed Beige Book showed a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, and investment sentiment picked up, boosting Dow futures to a record close. Dow futures had broken through 28160, testing resistance on the second target of 28215. Dow futures are expected to recheck resistance on the belief that U.S. Thanksgiving holiday spending will increase. Technically, short - term critical support pay attention to 27975 support. If the support bit is broken, it may further test 27795 support to 27680 support.

BTCUSD:
7750/ 7885 resistance
7250/ 7050 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885, keeps to looking the trends go down. If any reasons let Dow future fell, it is good news for cryptocurrency, the bitcoin price could rebounds and probably over US7885.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
516

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
  • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
516

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
516
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 3


Personal opinions today:

Germany and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose in November from the previous month, supporting the Euro yesterday. Separately, the UK manufacturing PMI also rose in November, supporting the pound. While the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI rose in November, but the ISM manufacturing PMI fell deeply in November and disappointed the market. Coupled with the lack of progress in U.S. and international trade talks, the federal reserve has continued to cut interest rates, and the dollar index has fallen amid concerns that US and China trade talks failed to reach a consensus in December, raising the prospect of a recession next year. Dow futures fell on worries about corporate profitability.

Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its decision on interest rates is whether to consider cutting rates. In European trading, the Swiss consumer price index for November and the Eurozone PPI for October, it must be a concern. France government budget should not be taken lightly on the Euro and other European currencies, and indirectly affected on gold and crude oil prices.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

11:30 RBA interest rate decision ***
15:30 Swiss Consumer Price Index **
15:45 France Government budget ***
17:30 UK Construction PMI *
18:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index **
21:45 U.S. Redbook Retail Sales ***
The next day 05:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks change ***


EURUSD
1.1080/1.1090 resistance
1.1035/1.1015 support
European economic data yesterday, the performance of growth, support the Euro. The Euro is stronger today as markets expect a slight increase in the Eurozone PPI in October. If the economic data turns out to be similar to or lower than market expectations, and the Euro fails to test the 1.1090 resistance against the dollar in late European trading, it is likely to move lower. If the data is weak, the Euro will fall in anticipation of U.S. economic data later in the day. Technically, the Euro could test 1.1015 support against the dollar.

British pound to dollar
1.2940/1.2950 resistance
1.2875/1.2865 support
A British opinion poll has predicted that the ruling conservative party will be close to the second leading party in terms of the number of seats won, failing to become the governing leader of the big party, which will undermine the smooth and orderly Brexit. The news is bearish for the pound. If UK economic data fail to gain momentum in time, the Bank of England is feared to be ease monetary policy. Resistance to GBP 1.2950 is likely to be blocked, more likely to affect the GBP decline, target on 1.2865 support.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6835/0.6845 resistance
0.6780/0.6770 support
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has set interest rates today, which could be bearish for the Australian dollar if the RBA would trying to ease monetary policy or cut rates further in the future. Although the rate of the interest rate cut is not high, before the RBA meeting vote, the Australian dollar to maintain under 0.6845 resistance. The absence of any good news from the US and China trade talks also capped the rise of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Technically, AUDUSD is expected to test 0.6845 resistance. Subsequently, the Australian dollar is estimated to rise the momentum of decline, is likely to fall. Preliminary target, 0.6780 or 0.6770 support.

Dollar to Japanese yen
109.35/109.45 resistance
108.85/108.75 support
US manufacturing PMI unexpectedly slowed, Dow futures and the Nikkei index fell, and the dollar again tested 108.90 against the Japanese yen after breaking through 109.60 resistance. The market is focused today on last week's U.S. retail sales. If growth will be bullish Dow futures and Nikkei index futures, while bullish Japanese yen. Technically, the opportunity is estimated to test 109.45 as the first key resistance. But if Dow futures fall after the date and the dollar index adjusts, watch for target support at 108.85 or 108.75.

USDCAD
1.3310/1.3320 resistance
1.3275/1.3265 support
The Bank of Canada will set interest rates tomorrow as markets focus on the central bank's monetary policy and economic outlook. Market watch, crude oil price trend weak, bearish Canadian dollar. Technically, USDCAD is testing the 1.3320 resistance. If rebound in crude oil prices above $57 could be bullish the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar could test support at 1.3265 or below as the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged and its economic outlook upbeat.

US crude oil futures
57.75/58.15 resistance
55.75/55.55 support
Crude oil prices are adjusting as OPEC, and other producers countries meet over the weekend to discuss a deal to cut production. Besides, the market focus on tomorrow morning, US API crude oil inventories for last week. The market is expected to decline inventories, the technical support for crude oil prices to rise. If crude oil prices break out watch 57.05, initially look for 57.75 or 58.15 resistance.

Gold
1466/1468 resistance
1456/1454 support
U.K. ruling conservative party may fail to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons next month amid fears that the country could be blocked from a smooth Brexit next year, according to a new poll. The United States and China trade talks have failed to make progress, worried about the economic impact of tariffs, and gold. Last night, U.S. manufacturing data under market expectations and fell from the previous month, while Dow futures fell bullish gold. The market is watching Wednesday night, the U.S. ADP employment change, preliminary estimates of a rise in the number of bearish gold prices. If Dow futures rally 1466 and 1468 resistance break failed. Gold is expected to fall as Dow futures rise.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28035/28095 resistance
27680/27555 support
U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly fell, and Dow futures took the opportunity to adjust amid concerns that U.S. and China trade talks won't take place in December. Technically, after a further dip to 27795 support, Dow futures could fall to 27680 or 27555 support. Dow futures could gain if the market anticipates a rise in U.S. ADP employment data tomorrow.

BTCUSD:
7750/ 7885 resistance
7050/ 6850 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885, keeps to looking at the trends go down. If Dow future keeps fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency. The bitcoin price could rebound and probably over US7885.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
516

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
  • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
516
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 4


Personal opinions today:

The Australian dollar rebounded after the RBA decision to keep interest rates unchanged improved bearish sentiment. Switzerland's consumer price index continued to show negative growth in November, and the Eurozone PPI was flat in October from the previous month. France government budget did not deteriorate in October, boosting the Euro and other European currencies. The mood has turned pessimistic amid growing pressure from Washington on international trade, fears that a US and China trade deal has not been finalized soon, and renewed concerns about raising tariffs on other countries. Generally, December is the month when financial institutions and funds begin to settle their investments. If the investment climate changes, the market moves sharply.

The performance of economic data is also a key gauge of market sentiment, with European trading today focusing on the final reading of Germany's November services PMI and the UK's November services PMI. Markets are now expected to be flat last month, hoping for a surprise that will further boost the Euro and pound. Another market focus tonight will be U.S. ADP payrolls for November. The data is related to non-farm payrolls and could extend to affect the dollar and even major currencies against the dollar as well as Dow futures, crude oil and gold price.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

16:55 Germany services PMI Final***
17:00 Eurozone services PMI Final **
17:30 UK Service sector PMI **
21:15 U.S. ADP payroll ***
22:45 U.S. Markit services PMI **
23:00 Bank of Canada interest rate decision ***
23:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI **
23:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories last week **
24:00 OPEC and non-OPEC JMMC meeting **


EURUSD
1.1090/1.1100 resistance
1.1055/1.1045 support
Yesterday the Eurozone PPI was flat in October and today's focus was on the final reading of the services PMI for Germany and the Eurozone in November. Affected by the decline of the dollar, the Euro is currently active. If the Eurozone economic data turns out to be similar to or lower than market expectations, the Euro is more likely to move lower against the dollar, failing to test the 1.1090 resistance after the European session, ahead of the overnight U.S. ADP payroll data for November. If U.S. ADP Numbers beat market expectations, the Euro could test 1.1055 support against the dollar and could extend to the downside.

British Pound to the dollar
1.3005/1.3015 resistance
1.2930/1.2920 support
Opinion polls in Britain predicted that the ruling conservative party would fail to win a majority of seats, shaking markets' doubts about Brexit next year. The main news was bearish for the pound. When the US President clashed with foreign leaders at the NATO summit, the dollar fell, and pound gained, breaking through the resistance of $1.2950 to a high of $1.3005. Late in the evening, US ADP employment figures for November were released. Market expectations for growth were bullish for the dollar and potentially bearish for the pound.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6865/0.6875 resistance
0.6800/0.6790 support
The federal reserve held rates steady and offered no monetary easing or further rate cuts, improving the bearish trend for the Australian dollar. The AUD once broke through 0.6845 resistance. But the US and China trade talks have not produced any good news to spur concerns about the Australian dollar's gains against the U.S. dollar. Technically, AUD is expected to test 0.6865 or 0.6875 resistance. ADP employment is likely to increase in November in the United States today; the Australian dollar is expected to decline momentum, is expected to fall. The initial goal, 0.6800 or 0.6790 support.

Dollar to Japanese yen
108.90/109.00 resistance
108.45/108.35 support
Dow futures and Nikkei index futures fell, while the dollar was bearish against the Japanese yen. Technically, there is an estimated opportunity to test 108.45 for the first critical support. If Dow futures continue to fall and the dollar index adjusts, watch for target support at 108.45 or 108.35. But late in the evening, U.S. ADP payrolls for November were reported, and market expectations for growth could push the dollar higher against the Japanese yen. If Dow futures rebound, the dollar is expected to test 109.00 resistance against the Japanese yen.

USDCAD
1.3310/1.3320 resistance
1.3275/1.3265 support
The Bank of Canada will set interest rates tonight as markets focus on the central bank's monetary policy and economic outlook. Market watch, crude oil price trend weak, bearish Canadian dollar. Technically, USDCAD is testing the 1.3320 resistance. A rebound in crude oil prices above $57 could boost the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar could test support at 1.3265 or below as the bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged and its economic outlook upbeat.

US crude oil futures
57.75/58.15 resistance
55.75/55.55 support
OPEC and other crude oil producers will meet soon to discuss production cuts. The wait-and-see market atmosphere is robust, and crude oil prices are trading. Technically, it is expected to support the rise in crude oil prices. A break above $57.05 would see a 57.75 or 58.15 drag.

Gold
1484/1486 resistance
1464/1462 support
Today, the United States released in November ADP employment change, the market preliminary estimates of the number of people increased, supposed bearish gold prices. But yesterday, the U.S. President's comments on trade talks sent Dow futures and global stock markets lower and gold prices higher. If the U.S. jobs data beats market expectations, there is a chance to bullish Dow Jones futures, and gold prices have adjusted gains, target with $1,464 support. Technically, the critical resistance level is referred to at $1,484.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27680/27885 resistance
27250/27165 support
The U.S. manufacturing index unexpectedly fell, and Dow futures took the opportunity to make a deep correction amid concerns that international trade talks with China and Europe will not continue in December. Technically, Dow futures dipped to 27250 or 27165 support. Dow futures could get a boost tonight if there is a significant increase in ADP employment change. In the Short term, the resistance refers to 27680 and 27885.

BTCUSD:
7750/ 7885 resistance
7050/ 6850 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885, keeps to looking at the trends go down. If Dow future remains to fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency, the bitcoin price could rebound and probably over US7885.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
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