ATFX Market Updates 2019

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 12

Personal opinions today:

Many risk events today. Please pay attention to market volatility!

In this morning the federal reserve's FOMC released its decision on interest rates, which was expected to remain unchanged. Later, Fed chairman Powell spoke about the U.S. economic growth, but inflation had yet to pick up. Trade tensions are not likely to improve, and economic instability and downside risks remain. Most important, Fed Chairman Powell said he would consider keeping interest rates unchanged next year and would be prepared to raise them if inflation exceeded the inflation target of 2%. The federal expects to raise rates as soon as 2021.

The federal kept interest rates unchanged in a favorable investment climate, and Dow futures rebounded but still failed to break through resistance to 28,050 high. Gold rallied as the dollar index retreated to the edge of 97 in response to expectations of a longer rate hike. Gold rebounded on the risks of the UK parliamentary election. Also, the U.S. government may impose additional tariffs on China imports on Sunday, raising risk aversion. Safe-haven investors chased gold and the yen. Troubled by trade barriers, crude oil prices have not benefited, limiting the rise.

The key of European data today include German November CPI and Eurozone industrial output for October. But the focus was on the start of the parliamentary elections in the UK this afternoon. Swiss national bank and the European Central Bank interest rate decision and ECB press conference. In other news, the U.S. President is meeting with trade officials tonight to discuss whether to schedule additional tariffs on Chinese goods. If it is granted a reprieve, Dow futures could rise, driving a dollar rally and bullish crude oil prices. Gold and other currencies fell against the dollar.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

15:00 Germany CPI ***
15:00 UK General Elections
15:45 French November CPI *
16:30 SNB interest rate decision ***
17:00 IEA releases monthly report **
18:00 Eurozone industrial output *
20:45 ECB interest rate decision **
21:30 ECB President press conference ***
21:30 U.S. November PPI **
21:30 U.S. jobless claims ***
23:30 U.S. EIA gas inventory change *
The next day 01:30 Bank of Canada governor speech **
The next day 03:00 Bank of Canada press conference ***

EURUSD
1.1155/1.1165 resistance
1.1055/1.1045 support
The federal reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and the dollar's spread over the Euro was steady and bearish. The Euro has a chance to fall to 1.10 or below against the dollar if the European central bank announces tonight that it will continue to ease or plans to cut interest rates further. Just ahead of the general election, the markets expect the conservative party to win control seats and lead the country to an orderly exit from the European Union. The pound rose, indirectly benefiting the euro. Between the start of the British election this afternoon and the end of the evening, the pound will rise or fall, which will help the euro. Suggest for today's market trend is not clear, only for short - term operation, pay attention to the risk.

Pound to dollar
1.3330/1.3350 resistance
1.3105/1.3085 support
The start of Britain's general election a sharp swing in the pound will mark this afternoon as the conservative party's share of seats in parliament is assessed. The pound rose if the conservatives won more seats. The pound is likely to fall as the Labour Party gains more seats. Trading caution is recommended in the risk sentiment, and election results drive travel. Technical analysis operation, the effect may not be noticeable, please pay attention!

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6885/0.6905 resistance
0.6780/0.6770 support
The market grew optimistic, telling the Fed FOMC chairman to keep interest rates unchanged for the next year, reducing the Australian dollar's ability to fall against the greenback. But amid concerns about trade barriers to U.S. goods, the U.S. President may impose additional tariffs on China imports starting Sunday. If the tariffs go ahead as planned, the Australian dollar. On the other hand, a delay would help the Australian dollar. Also, by the fundamental factors around the market, the technical analysis of the proposed reference role is lower.

Dollar to yen
108.90/109.05 resistance
108.40/108.30 support
The dollar fell, following a slide against the yen, as the Fed left interest rates unchanged and expected to keep them there next year. The dollar could rise against the yen if Dow and Nikkei futures rebound and the dollar stays strong. The key is tonight's meeting between the US President and trade officials to discuss whether to go ahead with new tariffs on China goods. If granted a reprieve, Dow futures rose, helping the dollar extend gains against the yen. Note Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei futures index (JPN225) for reference.

USDCAD
1.3200/1.3215 resistance
1.3130/1.3115 support
Federal reserve rates will remain on hold for some time, with few opportunities to raise rates and the dollar falling. Crude oil prices rose as interest rates remained unchanged. Add in Canada's trade deal with the United States, and the Canadian dollar has bullish been expected. Next, if the U.S. government extends additional tariffs on China, the price of crude oil will likely rise, which will benefit the Canadian economy and the Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar is expected to test below $1.31 against the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
59.00/59.25 resistance
58.25/58.00 support
It remains unclear whether the U.S. government will suspend additional tariffs on China imports, limiting the rise in crude oil prices. The fed's rate-setting outlook for the economy is good, and holding rates steady for a while will help drive up crude oil prices. In the absence of good news on trade, crude oil prices will likely adjust. Short - term $58 led important support.

Gold
1479/1481 resistance
1456/1454 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, a negative for gold prices. But today, all the risk events led to increased risk aversion. Focusing on two critical issues. Britain is on course to leave the European Union if the conservatives party win the most seats in the general election. Also, the U.S. government has delayed requisitioning additional tariffs on imports from China. These two events give the market good news, and gold prices can fall from high. And vice versa!

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28050/28210 resistance
27620/27540 support
Whether the U.S. trade department imposes new tariffs on China could lead to volatility in Dow futures. Technically, 27620 is a significant support level in the first phase of Dow futures correction. Significant resistance notes the November high 28210 resistance.

BTCUSD:
7450/ 7685 resistance
6850/ 6650 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. Only If Dow future fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM i

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 13

Personal opinions today:

Signs of easing in market risk events led to excitement in financial markets. After a meeting with us trade officials last night, US President agreed to suspend the imposition of additional tariffs on $150bn worth of China imports and to consider halving the additional tariffs already in place. The news boosted investment markets, with Dow futures hitting a recent closing high and crude oil trading above $59. Gold and the yen fell as risk aversion cooled. The China renminbi, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar rose as trade sentiment eased. In addition, after the polls closed in the UK general election, a preliminary survey estimated that the conservative party won a most of seats, which will help the conservative party lead Britain to leave Europe smoothly and reduce the downside risks to the UK economy. But the European central bank's continued monetary easing measures, which are expected to slow next year, are likely to expand and limit the Euro’s gains.

European trading hours today, we are watching the results of Britain's parliamentary election today to finalise whether the conservatives will win a majority of seats. In the evening, the US President officially announced the suspension of additional tariffs and related policies on imports from China. If it holds, Dow futures could keep rising, bullish on crude oil and bearish on gold and silver. For other currencies against the dollar, the good news is expected to be followed by moderating gains and a downward. On the data front, U.S. retail sales for November were most of concern tonight. The growth is widely expected and the dollar is bullish before release.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

Results of the UK general election to be decided ***
U.S. trade representative announces trade tariff policy ***
21:30 U.S. Retail sales ***
23:00 U.S. Business inventories **
24:00 Fed Williams remarks ***

EURUSD
1.1185/1.1195 resistance
1.1125/1.1115 support
The European central bank announced a continuation of its current easing policy, which is expected to stabilize the economy next year. In order to strengthen economic momentum, the ECB plans further easing policy, which is expected to provide opportunities for the Euro to go down against the dollar. At present, the Euro is rising, mainly because of the British general election. The conservative party is expected to win control seats and lead Britain to leave the European Union in an orderly way, which will increase the pound and benefit the Euro indirectly. It is believed that the UK and the Eurozone will face different challenges after the outcome of the election, and the Euro may adjust its recent gains. If the reference resistance 1.1195 break fails, be careful to reverse.

Pound to dollar
1.3480/1.3500 resistance
1.3385/1.3355 support
The official results of Britain's general election are expected to close this afternoon. If the conservatives win more than 358 seats, try the pound at 1.35. If the conservatives get less than 358 seats, the pound could fall sharply. Trading caution is recommended in the risk sentiment and election results drive travel. If the reference resistance 1.3500 break fails, note the trend reversal.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6940/0.6950 resistance
0.6865/0.6855 support
The US President may suspend the imposition of additional tariffs on China imports scheduled to begin on Sunday. The Australian dollar rose on the bullish news last night. If formally implemented by the weekend, the Australian dollar is expected to maintain gains. However, it is recommended that the technical analysis, the Australian dollar downside risk, pay attention to the 0.6950 resistance. Break failed, trend reversed.

Dollar to yen
109.85/110.00 resistance
109.15/109.00 support
Dow futures rose and the dollar extended gains against the yen as the U.S. President discussed holding off on additional tariffs on China goods and the prospect of a British election helped smooth the Brexit. The technical advice is to look for U.S. Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei futures index (JPN225) as references to see if the dollar/yen can move above 110.00.

USDCAD
1.3200/1.3215 resistance
1.3130/1.3115 support
Crude oil prices rose as trade eased. Canada has a trade deal with the United States, bullish the Canadian dollar. If the U.S. government trade department formally extends the additional tariffs on China, which would help the Canadian economy and oil prices, it could further bullish the Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar is expected to test below $1.31 against the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
59.85/60.05 resistance
58.25/58.00 support
The U.S. government, trade department decision to suspend additional tariffs on China imports, as revealed by the U.S. President last night, and the federal reserve's interest rate setting outlook for the economy could help lift crude oil prices. But in the absence of good news on trade deals, crude prices could adjust. Short - term $58 led important support.

Gold
1474/1476 resistance
1456/1454 support
The UK general election is over and the result is due in the afternoon. If the conservative party becomes the party with the most seats, the UK is expected Brexit without a problem, risk off which is bearish for gold. Also, if the U.S. represent formally announces a delay in requisition tariffs on imports from China, gold prices are expected to move lower. If there are any risk events, gold prices are expected to jump up. Current reference resistance, $1474 and $1476.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28450/28535 resistance
27975/27895 support
Dow futures rebounded on news that the U.S. government trade department was holding off on imposing a new round of tariffs on China. Technically, if Dow futures upward, watch for significant short-term support at 28210. If the official confirmation message appears, please note 28450 or 28535 for initial resistance.

BTCUSD:
7450/ 7685 resistance
6850/ 6650 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. Only If Dow future fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

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Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
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[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 16

Personal opinions today:

Dow futures rose, and global stocks followed as a slew of good news eased investor risk concerns. The dollar index reversed losses to regain 97 after the US reduced trade restrictions on China. As a result, the Euro rose against the dollar. USD rose against other major currencies, crude oil hovered around the $59 level, and gold and silver prices limited resistance.

Asian markets today focus on China November Retail Sales and Japan October index of tertiary industry activity. In the afternoon in European trading hours, investors focus on the German manufacturing PMI for December and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December. Then, UK manufacturing and services PMI for December. The above data, consensus growth, bullish European currency, such as the Euro and British pound. But around the opening of the U.S. market, the preliminary Markit manufacturing and services PMI for December was one of the market's most famous spots. If it beats market expectations, it could lift the dollar. European currencies and gold prices are downward, but crude oil prices are expected rises, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar. And the Canadian dollar, at 10:00 p.m. released in Canada November existing home sales, worth watching. Believe the price of crude oil, Canadian data growth, bullish the Canadian dollar.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

10:00 China Retail sales ***
12:30 Japan Tertiary industry activity **
16:30 German manufacturing PMI ***
17:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI **
17:30 UK manufacturing and services PMI ***
21:30 New York Fed manufacturing index *
22:45 U.S. Markit manufacturing and services PMI ***
22:00 Canada existing home sales **
23:00 U.S. housing market index (NAHB) *
24:00 BOE semi-annual financial stability report **
24:00 BOE financial policy minutes ***

EURUSD
1.1135/1.1145 resistance
1.1090/1.1080 support
The European central bank is easing policy and estimates that the Euro still has a chance to fall against the dollar next year as the economy downward. If European data show growth in the afternoon and pound rises against the dollar, the euro could benefit indirectly. The dollar is expected to rise and the euro to come down after the release of U.S. manufacturing and services PMI data at 10:45 p.m. Regarding the EURUSD resistance of 1.1145. If it breaks through 1.1115 support, while we expect 1.1080 crucial support.

Pound to dollar
1.3425/1.3450 resistance
1.3315/1.3305 support
In the UK general election, the conservative party took more than half of the seats, bullish for the pound. Markets are watching today as the British prime minister unveils his new cabinet. Separately, the afternoon UK manufacturing and services PMI and the evening BOE semi-annual financial stability report and minutes are expected to limit gains in the pound. Note risk sentiment and market appetite for risk in the UK and recommend trading with caution. If the key resistance 1.3500 break fails, watch for a reversal.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6910/0.6920 resistance
0.6865/0.6855 support
The U.S. government requested additional tariffs on China imports to suspend, once the interest on the Australian dollar. But markets are focused on tomorrow morning when the RBA releases its December monetary policy record. If before the announcement, it is recommended to pay attention to the Australian dollar downside risk, pay attention to 0.6910 resistance and 0.6865 support. Explore the direction of the Australian dollar after the RBA policy record is released. The current global economic climate is improving, the fundamentals of the Australian dollar. It is recommended to pay attention to low support, looking up.

Dollar to yen
109.65/109.75 resistance
109.25/109.15 support
The U.S. government has suspended the imposition of new tariffs on China imports. The result of the British election will help Brexit smooth. If combined with positive U.S. economic data and news, Dow futures rose again, potentially extending the dollar's gains against the yen. Technically, it is recommended to keep an eye on U.S. Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei futures index (JPN225) as the main reference points for dollar-yen movements. While there is still not much reason for the dollar to rise to the 110 level against the yen, the chances of a break above 109 are not significant. But if Dow futures and the Nikkei index fell, the dollar still has a chance to test 108.85 against the yen.

USDCAD
1.3200/1.3215 resistance
1.3130/1.3115 support
The Canadian dollar is expected to gain further gains as international trade sentiment improves, Canadian economic growth and crude oil prices rise. The U.S. dollar is likely to test below $1.31 against the Canadian dollar. Technically, pay attention to the 1.3200 and 1.3215 resistances.

US crude oil futures
60.05/60.30 resistance
58.25/58.00 support
The U.S. government has suspended plans to impose new tariffs on China imports, and the UK faces a clearer prospect of Brexit. The demand for crude oil supported a rise in crude prices through the end of the year. In the event of a crude oil price correction, $58 in the short term is the most critical support level.

Gold
1476/1478 resistance
1466/1464 support
After a year of market risk, slowly receded at the end of last week, believing that gold was losing ground. In the absence of other political risk events, gold prices are expected with a downside. The targets could be testing US1466 or US1464 support. The recent rise in the price of gold has an opportunity to correction as financial institutions prepare to settle accounts before the end of the year. Build reference resistance, $1476 and $1478.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28290/28335 resistance
28025/27930 support
The U.S. government's intention to delay another round of tariffs on China, boosting investment sentiment and value growth for U.S. companies, could push Dow futures higher. Technically, if Dow futures correction, watch for 28025 and 27930 support. 28290 is an essential short-term resistance level.

BTCUSD:
7450/ 7685 resistance
6850/ 6650 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. Only If Dow future fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 18

Personal opinions today:

International trade sentiment eased, and U.S. economic data did well. U.S. President said the federal reserve should ease policy and keep lower interest rates. U.S. stocks continue to rise, Dow futures test again at 28360. The above factors have driven up the price of crude oil. But API crude inventories rose more than expected last week and crude oil prices adjusted from high levels.

During the European market session today, focus on German November PPI, European central bank President speech and Eurozone November CPI. UK CPI and Retail price index for November. Among them, the European central bank President Christine Lagarde gave a speech, monetary policy and the outlook for the Eurozone economy, which is very important. Second, it is worth noting that the Eurozone CPI in November will influence the ECB's monetary policy in the future. U.S. market time, watch federal reserve governor attend a panel meeting and Canada's November CPI. Canadian CPl data, influence is more important, pay attention to the Canadian dollar volatility.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

15:00 German November PPI **
16:30 ECB President, Christine Lagarde speech ***
17:00 German IFO business climate index **
17:30 UK November CPI and Retail price index ***
18:00 Eurozone November CPI ***
18:15 Fed governor attends meetings **
21:30 Canada November CPI ***
23:30 US EIA crude oil inventories change **

EURUSD
1.1155/1.1165 resistance
1.1125/1.1115 support
Eurozone economic data, yesterday's eurozone trade account beat market expectations, positive for the euro. Eurozone consumer prices are expected to rise in November from last month as trade accounts rose yesterday and consumer spending in the fourth quarter was forecast to rise. It is currently trading against dollar resistance of 1.1155 and 1.1165 and yesterday's high of 1.1172. If the data is only in line with expectations and the euro again fails to test high, we expect 1.1125 or 1.1115 support, and we expect 1.1080 important support if we break out.

Pound to dollar
1.3155/1.3165 resistance
1.3085/1.3075 support
U.K. manufacturing and services sector PMI fell in December, while the BoE monetary policy and minutes remained upbeat about the economic outlook. This afternoon the UK CPI and Retail price index for November were watched for growth and pound was expected to be lifted by the BoE interest rate decision. Preliminary technical support is at 1.3085. See 1.3155 resistance above.

Australian dollar to Dollar
0.6875/0.6885 resistance
0.6845/0.6835 support
The RBA monetary policy record for December kept the economic outlook unclear, with the RBA expected to cut interest rates next year in Q1. Yesterday this analysis recommended that the Australian dollar downside risk. At present, the RBA policy record is expected to rise after the Australian dollar consolidation. As long as the global economic climate is expected to improve, the fundamentals should be bullish for the Australian dollar. It is recommended to pay attention to low support 0.6845, looking forward to the future rebound, test 0.6900.

Dollar to yen
109.75/109.85 resistance
109.40/109.30 support
Dow futures rose again, with the dollar following suit against the yen. Tomorrow the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, the market is expected to continue monetary policy easing, bearish the yen. But keep an eye on U.S. Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei futures index (JPN225), which dominate dollar-yen trading. Current 109.40 or 109.30 support, up to 109.75 or 109.85 resistance.

USDCAD
1.3200/1.3215 resistance
1.3115/1.3105 support
The climate for global trade has improved, the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement has been implemented, and foresee Canada economy has grown. On the other hands, crude oil prices rose, the indirect bullish of the Canadian dollar. After the Canadian inflation data released in the evening, the trend of the Canadian dollar has changed significantly. Technically, USDCAD is expected to test 1.31 support. Also, keep an eye on the trend of crude oil prices, indirectly affect the trends of the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
60.85/60.95 resistance
59.85/59.55 support
Crude oil prices upward since the U.S. government suspended its tariff plan, Brexit was more transparent and expected crude oil demand rose in Q4. Crude oil prices rose after a report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week. Crude oil prices test $60.95 resistance stopped. Technical note crude oil price at $60.95 resistance, note the correction.

Gold
1478/1480 resistance
1471/1468 support
Markets watched the monetary policy meetings of the BoJ and the BoE, with gold prices hovering between $1,470 and $1,480 in the near term. If there is no change in monetary policy in Japan and the UK, the gold price could be downside. Separately, gold prices fell on Friday as U.S. third-quarter GDP was reported and market expectations for growth picked up. Suggest a short run between $1470 and $1480, and prepare for a high correction down, more likely to break $1468.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28360/28415 resistance
28125/28030 support
Investor sentiment increased in anticipation of a higher U.S. Q3 GDP, and Dow futures closed at a record high. But note that before the end of the year, when financial institutions traditionally close their positions for profit on assets, Dow futures could adjust at any time. Technically, if the Dow futures at 28360, Dow futures near the critical resistance level, watch for a reversal.

BTCUSD:
6980/ 7085 resistance
6335/ 6185 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. Only If the market risk on and the Dow future deeply fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 19

Personal opinions today:

Investors are focusing on whether the BoJ and BoE will keep monetary policy loose as they announce interest-rate decisions today. At the same time on the central bank governor's economic outlook, the next year's monetary policy strategy. Crude oil prices could also fall, but gold prices could rise if continued monetary easing and a pessimistic economic outlook hurt currencies and related stock markets. In the market, the central bank monetary policy is widely expected to remain unchanged, but the economic outlook from pessimistic to positive, which is also good news, suitable related currencies and oil prices, negative gold prices.

In European trading today, focus on UK retail sales for November. If UK retail sales beat market expectations for a 0.3 per cent rise in November, the pound could gain. Moreover, it is likely to have a positive impact on the bank of England's monetary policy, with an opportunity for the pound to rebound and vice versa. In the evening session of the U.S. market, the number of U.S. jobless claims last week and the total number of U.S. existing home sales in November were the most noteworthy, providing volatility to the market.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

11:00 Bank of Japan interest rate decision
15:00 Switzerland trade account **
17:30 UK retail sales ***
20:00 Bank of England interest rate decision ***
21:30 Canada wholesale sales **
21:30 U.S. current account Q3 ***
21:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index **
21:30 U.S. jobless claims change ***
23:00 U.S. existing home sales **

EURUSD
1.1155/1.1165 resistance
1.1090/1.1080 support
Eurozone economic data yesterday, business sentiment index beat market expectations, bullish for the Euro. Eurozone consumer prices were flat in November before limited the gains and falling back to expectations of 1.1115 support. For the time being, we continue to refer to EURUSD resistance of 1.1155 and 1.1165 but recommend a lower resistance of 1.1335 and 1.1145. If this resistance fails on the Euro, look below for 1.1090 or 1.1080 important support.

Pound to dollar
1.3115/1.3125 resistance
1.3060/1.3060 support
UK CPI and RPI rose in November, beating expectations. The retail sales number are also expected to rise in the UK today, with gains expected in the pound. The pound rose as the Bank of England raised interest rates on expectations of continued growth in line with UK economic data. Preliminary technical support is 1.3060 or 1.3050 low a week ago as a reference. Look up at 1.3115 or 1.3125 resistance. If the pound break 1.3125 resistance, look up at 1.3165 or 1.3210.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6875/0.6885 resistance
0.6845/0.6835 support
Australia unemployment rate fell to 5.2 percent in November. Data beat market expectations; the Australian dollar had risen. Should global trade tensions improve further, the Australian dollar could gain. Investors are waiting for the U.S. real Q3 GDP tomorrow. If growth is seen, the Australian dollar will try 0.6900.

Dollar to yen
109.75/109.85 resistance
109.40/109.30 support
Dow futures rose, USDJPY following the trends. The market expectations that BoJ monetary policy will continue to ease; it is expected but recommended that the USDJPY between 109.40 and 109.75. If there is a change in the outlook for monetary policy, watch for dollar/yen volatility. Technically, Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei futures index (JPN225) often dominate dollar-yen movements. Estimates are currently looking at 109.75 or 109.85 resistance.

USDCAD
1.3165/1.3175 resistance
1.3105/1.3095 support
Crude oil prices have risen and completed the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal. Last night, Canada CPI as lower than market expectations, believe the trend of the Canadian dollar has an opportunity to fall. Technically, USDCAD is expected to test the end of 1.31 support. Suggest watching crude oil price trend, indirect to lead the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
60.95/61.15 resistance
59.85/59.55 support
Crude oil prices were supported by the U.S. government's decision to suspend trade tariffs, a more precise outlook for Brexit and higher demand for crude oil in the Q4. The market is looking ahead to the release of U.S. real Q3 GDP tomorrow, with crude oil prices estimated to have hit $60.95 or $61.15.

Gold
1479/1481 resistance
1471/1469 support
Markets watched the monetary policy meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, with gold prices hovering between $1,470 and $1,480 in the near term. If there is no change in monetary policy in Japan and the UK, the gold price downside. Suggest a short run between $1470 and $1480. If the US Q3 GDP increased, the gold price could test lower tomorrow.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28370/28415 resistance
28207/28125 support
Investor keeps looking ahead to the final reading on U.S. Q3 GDP. Note that before the end of the year, financial institutions traditionally settle for assets and liquidate their positions profitably. Dow futures could see any correction and any time. If the final reading of U.S. Q3 GDP is released tomorrow. Technically, if Dow futures test 28370 or 28415 resistance, watch out for trend reversals. Break 28125 support; the decline has a chance to expand.

BTCUSD:
7350/ 7485 resistance
6875/ 6755 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. If the market risk on and the Dow future deeply fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, the US7400 as the bitcoin price resistance. If not break the resistance, keep looking at US6755 support and US6400.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 20

Personal opinions today:

Bank of Japan and Bank of England interest rates remain unchanged, BoJ and BoE monetary policy, keep loose. The governor of the BoE said he was more concerned about the future economic outlook, predicting uncertainty over fiscal policy in the coming year. In particular, whether Brexit successfully at the end of January next year and the economic outlook, there is not optimistic sentiment, bearish for the pound. The U.S. economy remains strong, and the market is concerned about the release today of the Q3 real GDP final and the Michigan consumer confidence index final, the market has greater confidence, expected growth, capital flows into the dollar. Crude oil prices surged above $61 on optimism about the economy and demand.

In European trading today, focus on Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index, the Eurozone current account and the UK Q3 GDP. Among them, the U.K. Q3 GDP final value, impact on the pound and indirectly affect the Euro. In the evening U.S. market session, Canadian retail sales have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar. The U.S. final reading on Q3 real GDP and Michigan's consumer confidence index, respectively, all markets concern.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

09:30 China lending market quoted rates **
15:00 Germany Gfk consumer confidence index **
17:00 Eurozone current account **
17:30 U.K. Q3 GDP final **
21:30 Canada retail sales **
21:30 U.S. Q3 GDP final ***
21:30 U.S. real personal consumption expenditures ***
21:30 U.S. core PCE price index ***
23:00 U.S. Michigan consumer confidence index final ***

EURUSD
1.1135/1.1145 resistance
1.1090/1.1080 support
Europe's economic growth has been weaker than that of the U.S. The market forecast, the US Q3 real GDP and the Michigan consumer confidence index in December final value growth, short - term bearish for the Euro. However, it is worth noting that the Euro will be supported in a short time if the Eurozone current account and U.K. annualized Q3 GDP finally beat market expectations. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to 1.1335 and 1.1145 resistance. While the Euro is trending down, watch for the euro to fall. 1.1115 is an important support in the short term. If the U.S. economic data is strong, note the Euro at 1.1090 or 1.1080.

Pound to dollar
1.3065/1.3075 resistance
1.2975/1.2965 support
The UK economy has shown little growth, having slowed in the past quarters. The governor of the BoE said after the rate meeting that there were uncertainties over Brexit next year and the impact on the economic outlook. Comments affect investor confidence, bearish for the pound. Fundamentals and technical side in the bearish the pound. If the UK's Q3 GDP finally beats expectations, short-term support for the pound rose to 1.31 resistance. Technically, it is recommended to focus on 1.3065 or 1.3075 resistance in the short term. To the UK data performance, assess whether the sterling trend can break through 1.3075 resistance. If the previous attempt fails, the pound will continue its downward trend.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6895/0.6905 resistance
0.6855/0.6845 support
Australia unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in November, beating market expectations and pushing the Australian dollar higher. Should global trade tensions improve further, the Australian dollar could gain. At present, the wait-and-see the US Q3 real GDP, it is recommended to pay attention to low 0.6845 support and 0.6905 resistance. Market estimates that the final reading on U.S. real GDP growth, it may be higher than the initial reading is also bullish on the Australian dollar, which is expected to show a 0.6905 drag on the data.

Dollar to yen
109.60/109.70 resistance
109.30/109.20 support
Dow futures rose, bullish the USDJPY higher. As the bank of Japan raised interest rates yesterday and monetary policy remained loose, the Japanese yen was upbeat in the short term. If the U.S. Q3 real GDP finally beats expectations, the dollar could move between 109.60 and 109.70 yen. Technically, it is recommended to keep an eye on U.S. Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei futures index (JPN225), which often dominate dollar-yen movements.

USDCAD
1.3165/1.3175 resistance
1.3105/1.3095 support
US - Mexico - Canada trade agreement implementation and oil prices rise, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar. However, Canadian inflation data CPI lower than market expectations; the Canadian dollar fell. Tonight, Canada reports October retail sales. Observe the performance and evaluate the strength of the Canadian dollar. Also, it is recommended to pay attention to the trend of crude oil prices, indirectly affecting the performance of the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
61.15/61.35 resistance
60.25/60.05 support
Crude oil prices rose on optimism about the global economy as the U.S. government suspended trade tariffs. Also, markets are waiting for the final reading of U.S. real GDP. If the performance beats market expectations, crude oil prices are estimated to test $61.35 resistance. However, before the weekend, crude oil price rise stopped, pay attention to the adjustment risk.

Gold
1479/1481 resistance
1471/1469 support
Bank of England monetary policy meeting, the BoE kept the loose policy, the future economic outlook worries. According to market research analysis, the process of Brexit faces difficulties and directly affects the European economy. Gold hovered between $1,470 and $1,480 as a hedge. Besides, markets remain focused on the release of US Q3 GDP final data. Gold has an opportunity to fall if data growth beats market expectations. Suggest a short run between $1,470 and $1,480, suggest a high correction of $1,480 or above, and gold is more likely to test $1,469 after adjusting for gains.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28475/28520 resistance
28207/28125 support
Investor sentiment remains active as investors wait for the final reading on U.S. real GDP in Q3. Dow futures could rise if the final reading of U.S. Q3 GDP beats market expectations. But with the weekend and fund managers preparing for the Christmas holiday, Dow futures could adjust at any time. Technically, if Dow futures try 28475 or 28520 resistance, still need to be careful to reverse the trend.

BTCUSD:
7350/ 7485 resistance
6875/ 6755 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. If the market risk on and the Dow future deeply fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, the US7400 as the bitcoin price resistance. If not break the resistance, keep looking at US6755 support and US6400.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.