ATFX Market Updates 2019

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 21


Personal opinions today:

The FOMC minutes released that the current level of interest rate is appropriate and that they have no intention to consider a rate cut in the short term and will not view a negative interest rate policy. The comments helped explain expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates. However, some officials expressed concern that the global trade war would affect the economy of the United States and the global economy. If US consumption and economic growth slow, it will consider cutting interest rates. Then, after the US President expressed dissatisfaction with the progress of China's trade deal, the market worried that the first phase of the US-China trade deal delayed. Dow futures were fell more than 100 points from the close of the day, lifting gold prices. The dollar index was also affected, with other significant currencies rising against the dollar. Crude oil prices have been affected by a substantial increase in crude oil inventories down. But the Fed minutes and the Russian President and government support for a production cut, the crude oil prices rebounded, reached as high as $57.

Today focus, The ECB minutes, Bank of Canada, Charles speech and the U.S. existing home sales. U.S. existing home sales results maybe affected the US dollar, Dow and commodity market.

Note: * refers to the degree of importance

15:30 Swiss industrial output in Q3 **
17:30 U.K. government balance **
20:30 ECB minutes ***
21:30 U.S. jobless claims last week ***
21:30 Philadelphia fed manufacturing index **
21:40 Bank of Canada, Charles speech ***
23:00 U.S. existing home sales **
23:00 U.S. CB leading indicators *


Euro/dollar
1.1085/1. 1095 resistance
1.1055/1.1045 support
European central bank officials say growth in the European economy is slowing in the short term and could pick up in the first half of next year. But growth in Europe is expected to remain low next year, suggesting monetary policy will remain loose and keeps negative interest rates will be maintained to limit the Euro’s gains. Technically, if the dollar falls, the Euro has a chance to break through 1.11. Otherwise, the Euro still has a chance to test 1.09 against the dollar. Currently, watch for 1.1085 or 1.1095 resistance and lower target 1.1055 or 1.1045 support.

British pound to dollar
1.2935/1.2945 resistance
1.2875/1.2865 support
Markets are optimistic about the U.K. conservative party return to the House of Commons, predicting a strong chance of victory in next month's general election, as well as an orderly Brexit next year. But with the result of next month's UK general election, limited the British pound gains against US dollar. On the other hand, the U.S. President criticised the Fed for the slow pace of interest rate cuts, and some Fed officials were dovish comments, which were bearish for the dollar and bullish for the pound. Technically, the short-term focus 1.2945 important resistance. If there is no breakthrough the important resistance, the trend may adjust. There is an opportunity to approach to 1.2865 support.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6815/0.6825 resistance
0.6785/0.6775 support
The US President's comments have once again triggered China's trade deal. The market is worried that the first phase of the agreement cannot be signed in December, and the additional tariffs are once again being imposed, which is bearish for the Australian dollar. Technically, it is recommended to support the Australian dollar at levels of 0.6785 or 0.6775. The dollar's move was helped by the Fed’s dovish commentary in monetary policy, could bullish AUDUSD.

Dollar/Japanese yen
108.75/108.85 resistance
108.30/108.20 support
The U.S. President, unsanitary with the progress and pace of trade deal, also criticized the federal reserve's monetary policy, which bearish the dollar. In addition, trade tensions heats up, the Dow futures and the Nikkei index futures fell, the dollar fell against the yen to follow the steps. For now, the key is the Fed’s monetary policy record showed the direction of dollar interest rates. More importantly, the lack of progress in trade deals between the United States and China, cannot change the investment climate, tend to cause the dollar to fall against the yen. Technically, if Dow and Nikkei futures rebound, the dollar could test significant resistance against the Japanese yen.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3335/1.3345 resistance
1.3280/1.3270 support
Progress on a U.S.-Canada trade deal is expected in December, though, and a deal could be signed next month. The both sides have not fully reached an deal, the market on the prospects of fear, continue to bearish the Canadian dollar. Technically, it could use OPEC and Russia government coming to cut crude production, bullish oil prices and bullish the Canadian dollar. Currently the resistance could observed at 1.3345.

United States crude oil futures
57.35/57.55 resistance
56.05/55.85 support
The U.S. President's comments and a sharp rise in U.S. API crude inventories are bearish for crude oil prices. The current global trade deal with US, have encountered difficulties. The crude oil prices may still need to correction. But with OPEC and the Russian government agreeing to cut output, the price of crude oil could support. It may believe that first support at $55.85. If Crude oil prices rebound, the key resistance would looking at $58 barrier.

Gold
1478/1480 resistance
1467/1465 support
Dow futures fell yesterday and gold rebounded from a low of $1,465, after FOMC minutes and US President speech. If Dow futures continue to fall, gold is expected to test $1,480 resistance. Expect in short term, the gold would test $1472 support. The next support bit, observed at $1,465 support.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27890/28015 resistance
27530/27450 support
The market did not confirm whether the US government would sign a trade deal with China and Canada in mid-December, and investment sentiment dropped. FOMC minutes showed it was not considering cutting interest rates. Investors are worried about the fourth-quarter economic growth and corporate earnings. Dow futures continued to correction for the recent monthly gains. Technically, Dow futures correction, it may be down to 27450 key support.

BTCUSD:
8380/ 8480 resistance
7950/ 7885 support
Technically, the crypto currency demand decreased, bearish Bitcoin price. Now the bitcoin price under US8350 support, looking at lower to US7885 support. However, US President and Fed officials comments and Dow future fell. That is good news for crypto currency; the bitcoin price could reverse and uptrend. If the bitcoin price over US8480 resistance, it could test US9000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.


Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
bl5034_capture1.jpg

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
  • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
 
Personal opinions today:

The US government intends to impose import tariffs on EU car manufacturers, which would affect the economic prospects of Europe. Besides, uncertainty over the first phase of a trade agreement between US and China affected Dow futures fell Then the message that the China government invited US trade official visit to Beijing next month for the negotiations, the China government out of goodwill, the target is expected to reach an agreement. The dollar index and crude oil rose on the news, while gold and silver price fell.

European markets today focused on Germany final third-quarter GDP and European central bank President Christine laggard’s speech, which had a direct impact on the Euro. The performance of the UK manufacturing and services PMI in November could affect pound. US markets, the market watching the Markit manufacturing and services PMI for November and the Michigan consumer confidence index for November. Canadian dollar investors, worth watching Canada September retail sales.

Note: * refers to the degree of importance

15:00 German GDP for the third quarter-final ***
16:30 German manufacturing PMI **
16:30 ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks ***
17:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI **
17:30 UK manufacturing and services PMI **
21:30 Canadian September retail sales **
22:45 US Markit manufacturing and services PMI ***
23:00 US Nov Michigan consumer confidence index final ***


Euro/dollar
1.1085/1. 1095 resistance
1.1055/1.1045 support

The final German GDP for the third quarter were released this afternoon, followed by the ECB President Christine speech, which was even more critical. If comments continue to predict that European economic growth will remain low next year, monetary policy will maintain negative interest rates, which will limit the Euro’s rise. The Euro could fall against the dollar if further rate cuts are indicated. The Euro still has a chance to test 1.09 against the dollar. Current technical observation 1.1085 and 1.1095 resistance, below the first target 1.1055 or 1.1045 support.

British pound to dollar
1.2955/1.2965 resistance
1.2900/1.2890 support

In the UK trading hours today, the U.K. manufacturing and services PMI will be released. Separately, ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks. If Euro’s trend, indirectly bearish for pound. Technically, if the pound does not break through 1.2965, it could correct. If pound breakthrough 1.2890 support, there is an opportunity to explore 1.2865 support.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6815/0.6825 resistance
0.6785/0.6775 support

The US President is reportedly likely to impose additional tariffs on imports from the EU and China next month. There are uncertain factors in the international trade process, and the market is worried the US reopens the addition tariffs in December, the economic growth in the fourth quarter is slowing, more likely to affect next year's economic forecast, the monetary policy further cut interest rates, bearish for the Australian dollar. Technically, it is recommended to support the Australian dollar at levels of 0.6785 or 0.6775. It is waiting for the China trade ministry to invite U.S. trade officials to China for trade talks next month, which could bullish the Australian dollar.

Dollar/Japanese yen
108.80/108.90 resistance
108.40/108.30 support

Dow futures fell, sending the dollar down against the yen, amid uncertainty over trade talks between the United States and the world and nervousness about investment. But the Chinese government has reportedly invited U.S. trade officials to Beijing next month to discuss a trade deal. Expected to increase investment confidence, the dollar against the yen to rise. Technically, if Dow and Nikkei futures rebound, the dollar could test the next significant resistance against the yen. Refer to important resistances 109.25 and 109.40.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3295/1.3305 resistance
1.3255/1.3245 support

OPEC and the Russian government cut crude production, boosting prices. China and the United States look forward to progress in trade deal, the expected bullish Canadian dollar. Canada retail sales data released tonight, in the short term, the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar is expected to test 1.3355 or 1.3245 support.

United States crude oil futures
59.05/59.35 resistance
57.05/56.85 support

OPEC and the Russian government agreed to cut crude oil production from December, bullish crude oil prices. The international trade climate has improved China government has invited the US trade department to China next month. Crude oil prices rebounded, hitting $58 yesterday, pointing to significant headwinds. Current expectations if the U.S. government does not further say, crude oil prices limited room to rise, watch out for adjustments. Technical, pay attention to the $60 resistance, if crude oil prices hit the $59 level, watch out for a reversal!

Gold
1471/1473 resistance
1460/1458 support

The Fed monetary policy has no intention of cutting interest rates, and international trade is expected to improve after China's trade ministry invited the United States to China for consultations. Short - term market sentiment is expected to be good, bearish gold. Technically, Dow futures fell, but the dollar index rebounded, bearish gold broke the support. Short-term watch $1458 support, next-level support, $1452 and $1448.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27955/28015 resistance
27720/27655 support

Chinese trade ministry invited the United States trade officials visited China, and it is expected to sign a trade agreement in December, investment is expected to improve sentiment and outlook. Dow futures could rebound if the U.S. trade officials agree to visit China, which could ease investor concerns. Technically, the short-term focus Dow futures 27655 support.

BTCUSD:
7885/ 8180 resistance
7750/ 7550 support

The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885 support., next target to US7550. But Dow future fell, it is good news for cryptocurrency, the bitcoin price could rebounds, test US8180 resistance.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
bl5646_capture_45.jpg

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
  • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
 
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 25


Personal opinions today:

Last week Germany Q3 GDP growth rate final was 1%. Preliminary manufacturing PMI readings for Germany and the Eurozone rose slightly in November. The ECB President, Christine Lagarde, spoke as markets expected continued slow growth in the Eurozone. ECB would announce stimulus measures in the short term and consider further monetary easing if necessary. The comments sent the Euro down. The UK manufacturing and services PMI continued to slow in November, while the US economy and the Michigan consumer confidence index finally rose in November, the US dollar strengthened and British pound correction to 1.28 level.

European markets today focused on the difference between the German November IFO business sentiment index and UK November's CBI retail sales. The performance of the direct impact on the British pound, indirect impact on the Euro. During U.S. trading hours, Canada reported September wholesale sales. Then the US Dallas Fed business activity index for November. Canadian dollar investors, worth watching Canada September wholesale sales. The dollar index and dollar assets are more likely to be influenced by the November performance of the Dallas fed business activity index, and indirectly by the price of gold and crude oil. New Zealand reports Q3 retail sales tomorrow morning. Based on last week's rise in the New Zealand producer price index, we believe there is an opportunity for retail sales to grow. Estimates before the release of the New York dollar. Finally, depending on the result, see whether to test 0.6450 resistance.

Besides, this weekend is the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, Friday trading day is short. At the same time need to consider the opportunity to correct the position of investment institutions, a variety of asset prices may reverse the trend.

Note: * refers to the degree of importance

17:00 German IFO business sentiment index **
19:00 UK CBI retail sales gap *
21:30 Canada wholesale sales **
23:30 U.S. November Dallas Fed business activity index **


Euro/dollar
1.1045/1. 1055 resistance
1.1015/1.1005 support
European central bank President Christine Lagarde said she expected Europe's economic growth to remain low next year and said the monetary policy would keep interest rates negative, limiting the Euro’s gains. Subsequently, the US Michigan consumer confidence index finally rose in November, the dollar strengthened, and the Euro fell against the dollar, which had a chance to break through 1.1015 support. The U.S. economy, the market's focus this week, is Wednesday and Thursday. Following relevant European data on Thursday and Friday, the Euro is still expected to be dominated by U.S. economic data early this week. Until the Fed Beige Book, the Euro was dominated by Eurozone economic data.

British pound to dollar
1.2890/1.2905 resistance
1.2830/1.2820 support
U.K. manufacturing and services PMI in November were bearish for pound. Meanwhile, US economic data strengthened, pound broke 1.2905 support. Then according to this analysis, the trend continues to adjust. Pound breakthrough 1.2890 and 1.2865 support respectively last Friday. At the beginning of this week is expected by the US economic data and the Fed Beige Book. It is expected to limit the rise of the pound, mainly to see the resistance of 1.2905.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6815/0.6825 resistance
0.6785/0.6775 support
There are still uncertainties in the trade deals. The market is worried that the U.S. will fail to resolve the trade deals in December, which will affect the economic growth in the Q4, and may affect Australia's export trade and economic prospects next year, which is bearish for the Australian dollar. Tomorrow morning, New Zealand and Australia economic data, it is worth noting that the related short-term currencies may adjust the recent decline, a slight rebound. Technically, it is recommended to support the Australian dollar at levels of 0.6785 or 0.6775. Also, if the United States and China get a positive response in the trade talks, the trade ministries of the two countries can conclude the first phase of the trade agreement next month and postpone the implementation of additional tariffs in December, which could help further bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Dollar/Japanese yen
109.05/109.15 resistance
108.55/108.45 support
Trade talks between the United States and the rest of the world are fraught with uncertainty and investment tensions. Dow futures fell, which had affected the dollar's fall against the yen. The China government has reportedly continued to offer positive response to U.S. trade officials and invited the U.S. trade secretary to Beijing China next month to discuss a trade deal. Expected to increase investment confidence, the dollar rose against the yen. Over the weekend, especially in Asian market time today, the USDJPY is testing 108.80 resistance. Technically, if Dow and Nikkei futures rebound, the dollar could test the next significant resistance against the yen 109.40.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3310/1.3320 resistance
1.3255/1.3245 support
Both OPEC and the Russian government have agreed to plan to discuss a deal to reduce crude production in December. Bullish crude oil prices, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar. If Canada makes progress on a trade deal with the United States, it could boost the Canadian dollar. Canada today reported September wholesale sales, in the short term to watch the USDCAD could test 1.3255 or 1.3245 support.

United States crude oil futures
59.05/59.35 resistance
57.05/56.85 support
OPEC and the Russian government plan, and initially agreed to cut crude oil production, bullish crude oil prices. If the trade talks succeed, crude oil prices could test $58 or over. Technical, pay attention to the crude oil futures price $60 significant resistance, suggested that the crude oil price on the $59 level, it has chance to reversal!

Gold
1469/1471 resistance
1452/1448 support
FOMC minutes showed the Fed has no intention of cutting interest rates. China's trade ministry has invited the US trade minister to Beijing China to discuss and look forward to signing the first phase of a trade agreement. Short - term market less harmful news and adverse sentiment, bearish gold. Besides, Dow futures moved higher, the dollar index rebounded, short - term watch gold prices down $1458 support. If the breakthrough is expected to explore the $1452 and $1448 support.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28105/28215 resistance
27720/27655 support
US economic data were better than the market expected last week. Also, the China trade ministry invited U.S. trade officials to visit China. The first phase of a trade agreement between the two countries is expected to be signed in December, and the temporary suspension of additional U.S. tariffs on China imports is expected. The investment climate is expected to improve. Dow futures could get a boost if the U.S. government follows through on its agreement to visit China. Technically, the short-term focus Dow futures 27720 and 27655 support. Overhead first target 28105 and second target 28215 resistance.

BTCUSD:
7085/ 7180 resistance
6450/ 6250 support
Here we mentioned over a month, the cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885 support., next target to US7550. These all mark broke. If any reasons let Dow future fell, it is good news for cryptocurrency, and the bitcoin price could rebound. But now, the bitcoin price could test US6450 or US6250 support. Critical support, it would US5800.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
bl5936_en_4.jpg

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 26


Personal opinions today:

The market is predicting that China and the United States will sign the first phase of a trade agreement next month. It expected that the US government would continue to suspend import tariffs on China. Also, the recent U.S. economic data recorded growth; the next two days are expected to release the U.S. data may also show growth. In particular, the US, the final real GDP for the third quarter can maintain 1.9%. The result will release on Wednesday. The federal reserve will report a Beige book, update the US economic conditions. With good predictions, led by the dollar index and Dow futures rose. Bearish for gold, silver and Japanese yen. The crude oil price predicts the market is waiting for U.S. API crude oil inventory data for last week release. If the inventory is lower than the week before, bullish crude oil prices.

In European markets today, focus on Germany December Gfk consumer confidence index and RBA President David Lowe speech. Later, the U.S. released housing-related data and November Richmond federal reserve manufacturing index and Conference Board consumer confidence index. Current estimates, in the United States data expected to be healthy, the dollar continued to see support. Dow futures and Asia stock indexes rose together. But watch out for a possible market correction before European close, around 11 PM tonight. The dollar index and Dow futures are likely to test lower.

This weekend is Thanksgiving holiday; investors need to consider investment institutions may use the holiday positioning, various asset prices may reverse the trend.

Note: * refers to the degree of importance

15:00 Germany Gfk consumer confidence index **
17:05 RBA President David Lowe speaks **
22:00 U.S. FHFA housing price index *
23:00 U.S. New home sales **
23:00 U.S. Richmond federal reserve manufacturing index **
23:00 U.S. CB consumer confidence index **
The next day 05:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks ***


Euro/dollar
1.1015/1. 1025 resistance
1.0985/1.0975 support
Despite the recent performance of European economic data weak, the ECB expected European economic growth to remain at a low level early next year and monetary policy to maintain negative interest rates, which is bearish for the Euro. If the German economic data recorded growth today, but still not enough to boost the Euro. While the market is focusing on this week's positive U.S. economic report, it is also expected that the U.S. economic conditions report "Beige book" may lead to the U.S. economic growth is still active, which may be in this period the Euro lower. Technically expected to limit Euro’s gain, with the possibility of testing 1.0975 support or below.

British pound to dollar
1.2905/1.2915 resistance
1.2860/1.2850 support
British retail sales rose in November, and the pound rebounded. But it also expected stronger US economic data, limiting resistance to 1.2905. The market is forecasting that U.S. economic data and the results of the Beige Book report on U.S. economic conditions may limit pound’s gains, and could dip to 1.2850 support if the 1.2905 and 1.2915 resistance breakout fails. The British pound, in particular, has the opportunity to come downward.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6795/0.6805 resistance
0.6765/0.6755 support
The RBA estimates that the outlook for Australia's export trade and the economy is uncertain next year, which is bearish for the Australian dollar. New Zealand today reported strong Q3 retail sales growth, but Australia's economic confidence index continued to fall, the related currency performance is mixed. The New Zealand dollar rebounded slightly against the U.S. dollar, while the Australian dollar fell against the greenback. This afternoon watch RBA President David Lowe speech, before and after the comments, there is an opportunity to affect the Australian dollar fall. Technically, the Australian dollar is currently down to support to 0.6765 or 0.6755. If the RBA speech to express a positive economic outlook could be positive for the Australian and New Zealand dollar.

Dollar/Japanese yen
109.30/109.40 resistance
108.80/108.70 support
The China government has reportedly continued to offer a U.S. trade official to Beijing next month to discuss a trade deal. Investors sentiment was going well; the U.S. and Asian stock markets did well, driving the dollar up against the Japanese yen. The USDJPY broke through 108.80 resistance yesterday, while Dow and Nikkei futures continued to rise. If the surge can be extended, the USDJPY is expected to test 109.15, and the next level of significant resistance is 109.40.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3310/1.3320 resistance
1.3255/1.3245 support
Both OPEC and the Russian government have agreed to plan to discuss a deal to reduce crude production in December. The news helped boost oil prices, indirectly bullish for the Canadian dollar. If Canada makes progress on a trade deal with the United States, it could increase the Canadian dollar. There is no Canada data released today; it’s only the US data affect the Canadian dollar. However, API crude oil stocks will be released tomorrow morning to see if the data can support the Canadian dollar in the short term, making it possible for USDCAD to test support of 1.3255 or 1.3245.

United States crude oil futures
59.05/59.35 resistance
57.05/56.85 support
OPEC and the Russian government plan, and initially agreed to cut crude oil production, bullish crude oil prices. The trade talks to further improve, crude oil prices are expected to test $58. API crude oil inventories will be released tomorrow morning and we will see in the short term whether the data can push oil prices even higher. Technically, watch for resistance between $59 and $60 for crude oil futures. If the trend reverses, pay attention to the first target, 56.85 support.

Gold
1461/1463 resistance
1451/1448 support
The Fed has no intention of cutting interest rates again, and China is expected to confirm the signing of the first phase of a trade agreement next month in talks with the US. From last week's good data result for the U.S. economy, the market expects data released before this Thursday to remain positive. Dow futures and the dollar rose against gold. Technically, if Dow futures and the dollar index continue to rise, gold could still test $1451 or $1448 support. Further tests of the $1,441 support will have to look at whether U.S. economic data show a sharp increase. Moderate growth could see the gold rebound.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28160/28215 resistance
27975/27870 support
Good U.S. economic data last and forecast this week, US dollar and assets stronger. In addition, China and the United States trade department are actively negotiating to sign the first phase of a trade deals next month and have the opportunity to suspend the imposition of additional tariffs on China imports. Investment sentiment could improve, lifting Dow futures to a record high. Technically, the short-term focus Dow futures 27975 and 27870 support. If the U.S. economy continues to grow, Dow futures can look to the first 28160 and the second 28215 resistance.

BTCUSD:
7280/ 7400 resistance
6450/ 6250 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price now under US7885 support, keeps to looking the trends go down. If any reasons let Dow future fell, it is good news for cryptocurrency, the bitcoin price could rebounds. But now, the bitcoin price could test US6450 or US6250 support. Critical support, it would US5800.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
bl5646_capture_46.jpg

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano
ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
  • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
 
libaba after a strong earnings report in November plans to issue 500 million new shares plus an additional 75 million “greenshoe” option next week. The greenshoe gives the underwriters the ability to sell more stocks than the original amount set, of those 500 million shares, the 50 million shares will be sold to retail investors. BABA said those retail shares will be priced at no more than 188 HK. The offer price for both the international and the Hong Kong public offering has been set at HK$176 per share. BABA’s Hong Kong listing will be the largest stock offering across the globe for 2019.
The BABA stock price performance has run an impressive rebound since the June lows and registering 22% gaIns for the year, while the S&P 500 is gaining 23% the same period.
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BABA beat market consensus expectations in the November earnings report. Revenue was RMB119,017 million (US$16,651 million), an increase of 40% year-over-year. The Annual active consumers on the China retail marketplaces reached 693 million, an increase of 19 million from the 12 months ended June 30, 2019.
Mobile MAUs on the company’s China retail marketplaces reached 785 million in September 2019, an increase of 30 million over June 2019. Income from operations was RMB20,364 million (US$2,849 million), an increase of 51% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA, increased 39% year-over-year to RMB37,101 million (US$5,191 million). The non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was RMB13.10 (US$1.83), an increase of 36% year-over-year.
BABA Cloud computing revenue increased by 64% (YoY) to RMB9,291 million (US$1,300 million) during the September quarter, driven by an increase in average revenue per customer. As of August 4th 2019, 59% of companies listed in China are customers of Alibaba Cloud.
Despite the trade tensions between US and China, BABA managed to avoid damage in the bottom line as it’s wide diversification helps the company to preserve the revenues and earnings. Alibaba has rolled out various services aiming to eliminate the trade war impact on its bottom line.

Alibaba Valuation is still Attractive
Alibaba stock trades at 22.37 P/E making the BABA stock attractive against its competitors, BABA’s Enterprise Value to EBITDA is 28.70, compare this to Amazon’s 26.07. This makes Alibaba stock cheap on a P/E basis, but slightly overvalued on an EV/EBITDA basis.
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Alibaba BABA Technical Analysis
On the technical analysis side, the picture is bullish as BABA is trading above all the major daily moving averages and continues above the ascending trendline which started in January 2019. Traders now focus to the upside, where immediate resistance for BABA stands at $186.89 the top from November, while if the stock breaks above that level, the next target will be the resistance at 188.40 which is the high from November 8th before an attempt to yearly highs.
On the other hand, Alibaba stock will find first support at $181.30 the low from November 20, while extra bids will emerge at $176.39 the 50-day moving average. In case the stock breaks below that level bears will target the 100-day moving average at $173.61.
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Information provided by InvestingCube.com and ATFX, Market Strategist: Nikolas Papas

Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555). Registered Office: 32 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3SG. Company No. 09827091
 
Alibaba after a strong earnings report in November plans to issue 500 million new shares plus an additional 75 million “greenshoe” option next week. The greenshoe gives the underwriters the ability to sell more stocks than the original amount set, of those 500 million shares, the 50 million shares will be sold to retail investors. BABA said those retail shares will be priced at no more than 188 HK. The offer price for both the international and the Hong Kong public offering has been set at HK$176 per share. BABA’s Hong Kong listing will be the largest stock offering across the globe for 2019.
The BABA stock price performance has run an impressive rebound since the June lows and registering 22% gaIns for the year, while the S&P 500 is gaining 23% the same period.
bl5805_1_5.jpg

BABA beat market consensus expectations in the November earnings report. Revenue was RMB119,017 million (US$16,651 million), an increase of 40% year-over-year. The Annual active consumers on the China retail marketplaces reached 693 million, an increase of 19 million from the 12 months ended June 30, 2019.
Mobile MAUs on the company’s China retail marketplaces reached 785 million in September 2019, an increase of 30 million over June 2019. Income from operations was RMB20,364 million (US$2,849 million), an increase of 51% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA, increased 39% year-over-year to RMB37,101 million (US$5,191 million). The non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was RMB13.10 (US$1.83), an increase of 36% year-over-year.
BABA Cloud computing revenue increased by 64% (YoY) to RMB9,291 million (US$1,300 million) during the September quarter, driven by an increase in average revenue per customer. As of August 4th 2019, 59% of companies listed in China are customers of Alibaba Cloud.
Despite the trade tensions between US and China, BABA managed to avoid damage in the bottom line as it’s wide diversification helps the company to preserve the revenues and earnings. Alibaba has rolled out various services aiming to eliminate the trade war impact on its bottom line.

Alibaba Valuation is still Attractive
Alibaba stock trades at 22.37 P/E making the BABA stock attractive against its competitors, BABA’s Enterprise Value to EBITDA is 28.70, compare this to Amazon’s 26.07. This makes Alibaba stock cheap on a P/E basis, but slightly overvalued on an EV/EBITDA basis.
bl5805_2_5.jpg


Alibaba BABA Technical Analysis
On the technical analysis side, the picture is bullish as BABA is trading above all the major daily moving averages and continues above the ascending trendline which started in January 2019. Traders now focus to the upside, where immediate resistance for BABA stands at $186.89 the top from November, while if the stock breaks above that level, the next target will be the resistance at 188.40 which is the high from November 8th before an attempt to yearly highs.
On the other hand, Alibaba stock will find first support at $181.30 the low from November 20, while extra bids will emerge at $176.39 the 50-day moving average. In case the stock breaks below that level bears will target the 100-day moving average at $173.61.
bl5805_3.png

Information provided by InvestingCube.com and ATFX, Market Strategist: Nikolas Papas

Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555). Registered Office: 32 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3SG. Company No. 09827091
 
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