ATFX Market Updates 2020

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
800
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 15


Personal opinions today:

The U.S. CPI rose 0.2% in December, down slightly from 0.3% but in line with expectations. The dollar had already fallen before yesterday's data. The Euro rose on the news, tried a 1.1145 resistance. Commodity currencies the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar followed suit. Dow futures fell and gold prices rose since the US consumer price index was forecast to fall. Markets are focused today on the December U.S. PPI and the Fed Beige Book. Generally, the Fed releases its Beige Book, a snapshot of regional U.S. economic performance, with markets paying particular attention to the report for clues on the interest rate policy at the end of the month, which is more likely to lead the dollar in the right direction.

In European trading today, European currencies will be led lower by Germany's full-year 2019 GDP, U.K. December CPI, and the Eurozone November trade account forecast. The dollar will then move in response to a range of U.S. economic data expectations and results. On top of that, the U.S. manufacturing and services sector PMI slowed in December, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls, average wages, and CPI fell in December. The outlook for the Fed Beige book report was bearish Dow and US dollars, while the gold, silver price and the yen were on the strong side.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

15:45 France December CPI **
17:00 Germany Annual GDP growth in 2019 ***
17:30 UK December retail price index **
17:30 UK December CPI **
18:00 Eurozone November industrial output **
18:00 Eurozone November trade account ***
21:30 U.S. December PPI ***
21:30 New York Fed manufacturing index **
23:30 US EIA crude oil inventories change **
OPEC releases monthly oil market report ***
the next day 03:00, Fed Beige Book


Euro
1.1145/1.1155 resistance
1.1105/1.1095 support
U.S. CPI data for December fell as expected, pushing the Euro higher. The market is watching today's European data, especially Germany's 2019 GDP and the Eurozone November trade account, for the most attention. If it beats expectations, the Euro could rebound. Technically, around 1.1145 or 1.1155, there are EURUSD important resistance levels. In addition, the U.S. Fed Beige Book on economic conditions is being watched, and the dollar could fall and the Euro’s gain if the report does not signal expansion.

Pound to dollar
1.3075/1.3085 resistance
1.2955/1.2945 support
Earlier, the Bank of England chairman said it had no intention of raising interest rates after weak UK economic data for November. The market is waiting for the results of the UK CPI and retail sales data in December, which are expected to temporarily lower the pound. If the U.S. economic data release is weak tonight and the Fed beige book outlook is downbeat, the pound could upward.

Australian dollar
0.6935/0.6945 resistance
0.6885/0.6875 support
The US and China signed a first-phase trade deal today that markets believe will indirectly boost Australia's economic growth, lowering expectations for a rate cut by the reserve bank of Australia. In addition, China and the United States strengthen close ties and cooperation, the news boosted the industrial metal prices, bullish Australian dollar. Technically, the AUDUSD first target resistance is 0.6935 and 0.6945. Expect the New Zealand dollar to have an opportunity to follow the Australian dollar.

Dollar to yen
110.20/110.30 resistance
109.75/109.65 support
Dow futures rose and the dollar briefly broke through the 110 marks against the yen as trade sentiment eased, expectations for global corporate earnings growth and investment sentiment picked up. But the yen strengthened as US December CPI fell and the dollar failed to rise further. If U.S. economic data continues to disappoint markets this week, Dow futures will fall. Believe that the dollar against the yen may start to decline. Suggest keeping an eye on Dow futures performance to capture the dollar-yen trading direction.

USDCAD
1.3090/1.3100 resistance
1.3025/1.3015 support
U.S. crude oil inventories rose as expected and crude prices were already priced in ahead of the announcement. As usual, after the results were announced, short interest, crude oil prices rose, the indirect bullish Canadian dollar. On top of that, U.S. CPI fell in December and the outlook for the Fed Beige book report was not expected to produce growth forecasts, and the dollar retreated against the Canadian dollar. Technically, USDCAD expects to test 1.3025 and 1.3015 support.

US crude oil futures
59.65/60.15 resistance
57.80/57.65 support
After the crude oil inventory data, closed the short position, crude oil prices rose, the situation in the United States and Iran is expected to continue to disrupt the supply of crude oil investors, risk aversion is likely to continue for some time, supporting crude prices. Technically, refer to $57.80 and $57.65 support, up to $59.65 and $60.15 resistance.

Gold
1555/1557 resistance
1543/1541 support
U.S. CPI fell, Dow futures and the dollar limited gains, and gold prices were supported by lows. Markets awaited the Fed Beige book report, but investors were downbeat on the outlook, sending money into gold. If the report is neutral and does not explicitly signal weakness in the U.S. economy, gold is expected to adjust. Investors continued to watch Dow futures, recommended choose the Dow futures to forecast the market sentiment and capture gold price trends. If Dow futures rise, gold and silver price fall.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
29075/29155 resistance
28775/28645 support
Today, China and the United States signed the first phase of the trade agreement. However, the US government had no intention of lowering tariffs after the first phase of the trade deal. As a result, the market is betting that the second phase of trade talks could stall ahead of the U.S. president elected in November, with the investment climate cooling and the Dow likely to continue to adjust. Technically, if Dow futures adjust and Dow futures resistance level 29075 becomes the key resistance, testing lower support likely 28645.

BTCUSD:
9025 / 9175 resistance
8250 / 8000 support US December CPI lowers than last month and the Fed Beige Book outlook would not good, bullish the bitcoin price. Technically, the bitcoin price over US8500 which is one of significant resistance. The next target would be looking at US9175. Keep watching the Dow. If Dow fell, the bitcoin price could up. It is the same trend with the gold price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
800
For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
  • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
800
By Alejandro Zambrano Chief Market Strategist at ATFX and Investingcube.com.

The Bank of Canada and the Canadian Dollar will come into focus on January 22, when the Canadian central bank will hold its first-rate meeting for the year. The BoC lifted its interest rate to 1.75% in October 2018 and left it there since then. At this month’s rate meeting, economists anticipate the rate to remain unchanged. However, until recently that was not the case. For most of 2019, economists predicted the Canadian central bank to reduce rates, as many of its peers, however, it never happened.

A rate cut today looks even less likely, and it is possible that the continued strength of the Canadian economy and high inflation will leave the bank rate unchanged for longer, and thereby continue to support the Canadian Dollar.


Canadian Unemployment Rate declines and Inflation Remains High
The latest labor market report out of Canada showed good improvement. The Unemployment rate dipped to 5.6% vs. the 5.8% projected, and the unemployment rate is nearing the multi-year low of 5.4% from June 2019. These are levels that the central bank considers to be very low.


Unemployment rate
bl5805_1_7.jpg

Source: Statistics of Canada

Inflation remains high, with the headline annual inflation is at 2.2%, and core inflation at 1.9%. At the December meeting, the bank said, “CPI inflation in Canada remains at target, and measures of core inflation are around 2 percent, consistent with an economy operating near capacity.” The comment makes it clear that the economy and their interest rate are exactly where they would like to have it.


Canada Inflation Measures
bl5805_2_7.jpg

Source: BoC.

In their GDP output models, they also estimate that the economy is near full capacity, with the GDP gap being estimated to be between -1% to 0%. The level of the output gap has historically been a very good indicator of actions by the central bank.
In the latest rate meeting, the BoC also said their biggest headache was global trade wars, however, tensions have decreased and the US has scaled back some of their tariffs on Chinese goods, and no longer considers China to be a currency manipulator. It, therefore, looks unlikely that trade wars tensions will pick up any time soon.

Overall, the current economic conditions warrant no changes to the central bank rate. If inflation continues to remain persistently high, we might even see a rate hike, which could further support the Canadian dollar. Overall, I remain bullish the Canadian dollar vs. currencies such as the Euro, NZD, and JPY on good technical setups.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
800
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 16


Personal opinions today:

Markets took note of the Fed beige book report the moderate performance of the U.S. regional economy, which could face downside risks in the face of a trade war and U.S. tariffs. Investors are thinking FOMC would keep interest rates unchanged and keep a low-interest policy.

The first phase of the trade agreement between China and the United States was formally signed. The US President said that they will move forward to the second phase and end the trade gap between the two countries. The news was positive for stocks, with Dow futures rising, leading Asian markets to open higher. If the stock market continues to rise, it is believed that will bullish crude oil prices, bearish gold, and silver.

In European trading today, the European currency will be looking at Germany’s December CPI final reading and the minutes of the ECB monetary policy. Now, on the basis of previous Eurozone economic inflation data, it is expected to be bearish for the euro. Tonight's focus will include U.S. retail sales for December, jobless claims for last week and U.S. business inventories for November. Then, at 02:00 a.m., watch for comments from ECB President, looking for clues to next week's ECB policy meeting and setting the trends of the Euro.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

15:00 Germany December CPI final reading **
17:00 IEA releases its monthly oil market report **
19:30 ECB monetary policy minutes **
21:30 U.S. December retail sales ***
21:30 U.S. jobless claims for last week ***
23:00 U.S. November business inventories ***
23:00 U.S. January housing market index NAHB **
23:30 U.S. EIA gas inventory last week **
At 02:00 the next day, ECB President speech ***


Euro
1.1165/1.1175 resistance
1.1130/1.1125 support
Germany’s GDP and the Eurozone November trade account were weak in 2019, which is bearish for the Euro. But the Fed beige book reported on economic conditions, which showed moderate growth. Depending on the report, the dollar could fall, followed by the bullish Euro, which hit $1.1162, in line with the analysis's expectations. But we focus today is Germany December CPI final reading and the ECB minutes. These earlier announcements, it is possible to digest, but still can be bearish for the Euro. It is recommended to keep an eye on the Euro limit gains between 1.1165 or 1.1175 resistance.

Pound to dollar
1.3075/1.3085 resistance
1.3015/1.3005 support
Reported CPI fell in December and a flat reading in retail prices, the pound is expected to be affected by a wait to see how the Eurozone and U.S. economies perform. The rise in the pound could be limited ahead of the release tomorrow of December retail sales data. It is recommended to keep an eye on the trend of the pound, the rise may be adjusted.

Australian dollar
0.6935/0.6945 resistance
0.6885/0.6875 support
The United States and China have signed a first-phase trade agreement, and the two countries have made progress in economic and trade relations, which the market believes will indirectly boost Australia's economic growth and lower the expectation of a rate cut by the RBA. It is believed that with the help of closer ties and cooperation between China and the U.S., the prices of basic industrial metals will be boosted.

Dollar to yen
110.05/110.15 resistance
109.75/109.65 support
Dow futures rose as trade sentiment eased and investment sentiment picked up. If U.S. economic data continues to disappoint markets this week, Dow futures will fall. Believe that the dollar against the yen may start to decline. Suggest keeping an eye on Dow futures performance to capture dollar-yen trading direction.

USDCAD
1.3075/1.3085 resistance
1.3025/1.3015 support
China and the United States signed the first phase of the agreement, crude oil prices rose, the Canadian dollar, the United States dollar against the Canadian dollar fell. Crude oil prices are expected to continue to rise, the USDCAD adjustment widened, is expected to first test 1.3025 and 1.3015 support.

U.S. crude oil futures
59.65/60.15 resistance
57.80/57.65 support
Before China and the United States signed the trade agreement, short interest. The official confirmation of the signing and the President of the United States said the two sides are working together to increase the price of crude oil. In addition, tensions in the Middle East have an opportunity to affect crude oil supplies. If risk aversion rises, bullish crude oil prices. Technically, refer to 57.80 and 57.65 support, up to 59.65 and 60.15 resistance.

Gold
1559/1561 resistance
1547/1545 support
U.S. CPI fell, Dow futures and the dollar limited gains, and gold prices were supported by lows. The Fed beige book reported moderate economic growth, a gloomy outlook for investors, sent money into gold, which rose. Investors continued to watch Dow futures, using market sentiment to capture gold. If Dow futures rise, gold and silver price fall.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
29155/29220 resistance
29020/28930 support
China and the United States signed the first phase of trade agreement, good market investment climate. U.S. companies began reporting corporate earnings and the Dow could continue to rise in line with investor expectations. But it must be noted that corporate earnings may be lower than market forecasts, leading to a correction in the stock market. Technically, the first phase of the dow futures correction focuses on 29020 or 28930 support.

BTCUSD:
9025 / 9175 resistance
8250 / 8000 support US December CPI lower then last month and the Fed Beige Book reported moderate economic growth, a gloomy outlook for investors and bullish the bitcoin price. Technically, the next target would looking at US9175. Keep watching the Dow. If Dow fell, the bitcoin price could up. It is same trend with gold price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
800
For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
  • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
800
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 20

Personal opinions today:


U.S. Markets closed for Martin Luther day.

In the afternoon worth watching data today, the German PPI monthly rate in December. Last week, Germany’s CPI was just 0.5% in December, while Germany PPI was expected to remain unchanged in December, bearish for the Euro. Over the weekend, there were reports of tight supplies of crude in the Middle East, lower crude inventories, bullish crude oil prices and, indirectly, bullish gold. Tomorrow, the Bank of Japan will announce interest rates and monetary policy. The BoJ governor’s speech is important.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

(U.S. stock markets closed, CME contracts closed early)
09:30 PBOC one-year lending market quoted rates *
15:00 German PPI for December **
21:00, the IMF releases world economic outlook report **

Euro

1.1125/1.1135 resistance
1.1075/1.1065 support
The Euro fell last week by Germany's final December consumer price index and the minutes of the European central bank's monetary policy meeting. Earlier this analysis suggested keeping an eye on the Euro to limit gains between 1.1165 or 1.1175 resistance, which could fall. The Euro opened below 1.1100 in Asia trading today. Markets are watching Germany PPI for December. Without growth, the Euro has room to fall.

Pound to dollar
1.3045/1.3055 resistance
1.2975/1.2965 support
The Brexit has affected the UK's economic and investment climate, with the UK consumer price index falling in December, while retail prices and retail sales data were only flat, weighing on the pound. It is recommended to keep an eye on the trend of the pound, the rise may be adjusted. There is little optimism in the markets ahead of the release of December jobs data tomorrow, and the pound is likely to continue its downward trend ahead of the results.

Australian dollar
0.6905/0.6915 resistance
0.6865/0.6855 support
Improved economic ties between the United States and China are expected to boost Australia's economic growth. It is believed that with the help of closer ties and cooperation between China and the U.S., the prices of basic industrial metals will be boosted. Technically, AUD and NZD adjustments are expected to return to the 0.69 level after keeping an eye on the 0.6855 support range consolidation.

Dollar to yen
110.25/110.35 resistance
109.75/109.65 support
The global trade climate has improved and investment climate has warmed up. U.S. economic data growth, Dow Jones futures rose, the United States. If U.S. economic data continues to disappoint markets this week, Dow futures will fall. In addition, the Bank of Japan interest rate, generally in the interest rate before the bearish yen. But it's worth noting that the USDJPY often reverses after a monetary decision or press conference.

USDCAD
1.3075/1.3085 resistance
1.3025/1.3015 support
The U.S. dollar fell against the Canadian dollar after the deal was signed and oil prices rose. Oil prices are expected to continue to rise on the back of sentiment in the Middle East and oil supply news, while the USDCAD correction widened and could test 1.3025 and 1.3015 support.

US crude oil futures
59.65/60.00 resistance
58.59/58.35 support
Global trade deal sealed short interest. In addition, tensions in the Middle East, the supply of crude oil decreased, the news affected the price of crude oil rose. If risk aversion rises, bullish crude oil prices. Technically, refer to $58.50 and $58.35 support, up to $59.65 and $60.00 resistance.

Gold
1563/1565 resistance
1550/1548 support
US economic growth, Dow futures trend up, bearish for gold. But with tensions in the Middle East, gold prices upward. If the tensions ease, gold and silver will fall as Dow futures rise. Gold price volatility is recommended. If gold surges in response to unexpected events, it is recommended to maintain high altitude gold. Significant resistance, $1, 585 and $1, 600, respectively.

U.S. Dow future
Market Close today

BTCUSD:
9025 / 9175 resistance
8250 / 8000 support Fed Beige Book reported moderate economic growth, a gloomy outlook for investors and bullish the bitcoin price. Technically, the next target would look at US9175. Keep watching the Dow and global stocks market. If the global stock market fell, the bitcoin price could up. It is the same trend as the gold price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
800
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 21


Personal opinions today:

Yesterday, U.S. markets were closed for the holiday and there was little volatility, with gold and the dollar holding up slight gains.

There's a lot of data to watch out for in the investment markets today and the President's comments to watch out for and the market is going to be a little bit choppy. Moreover, the trend against related currencies could reverse.

First, the bank of Japan sets interest rates and the market watches the BoJ monetary policy and the governor's speech. In European trading, keep an eye on UK unemployment and jobless claims for December. Also, the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany and the eurozone in January. A more noteworthy time for global market volatility was when U.S. President Donald Trump spoke at 18:30. Later, the bank of England governor mark carney gave a speech that could have implications for next week's Bank of England rate-setting meeting.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

11:00 BOJ monetary decision and outlook ***
14:30 BOJ governor holds a press conference ***
17:30 UK unemployment rate and jobless claims ***
18:00 Germany and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment **
18:30 U.S.President, Trump speaks ***
23:00 Bank of England President, Carney speaks ***


Euro
1.1125/1.1135 resistance
1.1075/1.1065 support
The ZEW economic sentiment index for January for Germany and the Eurozone was released today, with market forecasts for an increase from the previous month, which could see the Euro gain ahead of the data. Later, US President Donald Trump speaks. In response to the comments, pay attention to the dollar, indirectly affect the trend in EURUSD. Next, Bank of England President, Carney speaks before the European market closed today. Comments can be bearish for pound and Euro. Technically, the EURUSD trend limit is 1.1125 or 1.1135 resistance, with a chance to test 1.1075 or 1.1065 support, more likely to test lower level before ECB rate meeting on coming Thursday.

Pound to dollar
1.3045/1.3055 resistance
1.2975/1.2965 support
U.K unemployment rate and jobless claims figures for December were released after the U.K. market opened today. Also, investors must keep watching the Bank of England President, Carney’s speech. Brexit at the end of this month also comes after earlier weak economic data. Believe it will limit the rise of the pound, even try to test the lower support. In the evening, investors should keep an eye out for comments from Bank of England governor.

Australian dollar
0.6905/0.6915 resistance
0.6855/0.6845 support
US President Donald Trump was speaking during trading in European markets today. The market is speculating that Trump's comments, defending the US economic outlook and support him to win the US presidential election in November, will lead to bullish dollar comments. Technically, AUD and NZD continue to adjust, keeping an eye on the 0.6855 or 0.6845 support. It is worth noting that comments without any stimulus measures could be bearish for the US dollar and bullish for the Australian dollar. The New Zealand dollar will follow the Australian dollar trends.

Dollar to yen
110.25/110.35 resistance
109.75/109.65 support
The interest rate set by the Bank of Japan, generally bearish on the yen before the rate-setting, but often reversed after the rate-setting, worth noting. More notably, the Bank of Japan governor held a press conference. There is no evidence that the introduction of new easing measures and an optimistic economic outlook can support the yen, and the USDJPY could test 109.75 or 109.65 support. In the afternoon, US President Donald Trump made a speech, paying attention to his remarks and assessing the trend of the US dollar, which indirectly affected the trend of the USDJPY as well.

USDCAD
1.3075/1.3085 resistance
1.3025/1.3015 support
The Bank of Canada will set interest rates tomorrow night as the market watches the BoC monetary policy and economic outlook. If the U.S. President's comments spark tensions in the Middle East in the evening, the price of crude oil will rise, which could boost oil prices and, indirectly, the bullish Canadian dollar. USDCAD could test 1.3025 and 1.3015 support.

US crude oil futures
59.65/60.00 resistance
58.50/58.35 support
A late afternoon speech by the U.S. President could spark tensions in the Middle East, or reduce oil supplies, potentially sending crude prices higher. Risk aversion, bullish crude oil prices. Technically, refer to $58.50 and $58.35 support, up to $59.65 and $60.00 resistance.

Gold
1572/1574 resistance
1558/1556 support
Tensions in the Middle East have cooled, but late this afternoon, the US President made remarks likely to touch on the situation in the Middle East and North Korean. The price of gold rose on fears of stoking tensions as money fled for safety. If the rhetoric is mild enough to calm, then Dow futures rose, gold and silver prices fell. Gold price volatility is recommended. Gold has risen or fallen sharply in response to unexpected events. Technically, it is recommended that high altitude gold is still maintained. See significant resistance at $1585 and $1600.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
29355/29405 resistance
29170/29100 support
In the evening, the US President made remarks that may touch on the situation in the Middle East and North Korean. Dow futures were the first to fall on fears of stoking tensions, with investors locking in profits to unwind their positions in Asian trading and risk aversion rising. Technically, an adjustment of more than 23.6% is possible to further down the adjustment wave of 50%, 29100 as one of support. Afternoon investors must listen to Trump's comments and then evaluate the market values.

BTCUSD:
9025 / 9175 resistance
8250 / 8000 support In the later afternoon, the US President made remarks that may touch on the situation in the Middle East and North Korean. Dow futures were the first to fall on fears of stoking tensions, with investors locking in profits to unwind their positions in Asian trading and risk aversion rising. Keep watching the Dow future and global stocks market. If Dow fell, the bitcoin price could up. It is the same trend as the gold price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
800
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 22


Personal opinions today:

US President attended the international financial forum yesterday, he said the US economy could continue to grow. Meanwhile, US President Trump said the Fed should consider cutting interest rates to coincide with the U.S. economic recovery. Trump's remarks focused on economic and international trade relations, without mentioning the situation in the Middle East or other political issues, to ease investment tensions. Dow futures rose, gold prices fell from high.

In European trading today, Bank of England President speech and U.K. January CBI industrial orders. In addition, the focus is on the Canadian dollar. Canada releases its December CPI tonight. Then, the Bank of Canada announced the interest rate decision and press conference. Tomorrow, US API crude oil stocks change. The crude oil inventory affects the crude oil price and indirectly affects the Canadian dollar.

[Important financial data and events]
note: * is important


15:40 Bank of England President speech ***
19:00 UK January CBI Industrial Orders *
21:30 Canadian December CPI **
22:00 FHFA House Price Index **
23:00 Bank of Canada interest rate decision ***
23:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales **
The next day 00:15 Bank of Canada press conference ***
The next day 05:30 US API crude oil stocks change ***


EURUSD
1.1105/1.1115 resistance
1.1065/1.1055 support
Today, no Eurozone data releases, investors waiting for the European Central Bank monetary decision tomorrow night. If there are no other contingencies, it would believe the euro could test 1.1065 or 1.1055 support before the ECB decision. The European central bank is expected to keep interest rates and monetary policy unchanged, and the ECB's economic outlook is expected to be optimistic. In addition, expectations of a month-on-month increase in the Eurozone preliminary PMI for January on Friday are bullish for the Euro, which is expected to rebound from lows.

Pound to dollar
1.3070/1.3080 resistance
1.3005/1.2995 support
The U.K. unemployment rate was unchanged in December and jobless claims fell. The jobs data improved and the pound rebounded from lows as high as 1.3080 yesterday. The market watches Bank of England President speech, explaining the Bank of England's monetary policy orientation on the Brexit at the end of this month, believes to continue to limit the rise of the pound. The UK's political and trade stance after Brexit. Watch for the pound to test the 1.29 level again.

Australian dollar
0.6865/0.6875 resistance
0.6815/0.6805 support
Technically, the Australian and New Zealand dollars continued to adjust, breaking through the 0.6845 support level. Australia's economic losses were much higher than expected after the market became overly concerned about the country's wildfires. In addition, the US President said that in order to maintain international trade negotiations, tariffs already imposed will not be removed. The remarks did not mention any stimulus measures, indirectly bearish for the Australian dollar. Believe that the New Zealand dollar trend continues to follow the Australian dollar trend.

Dollar to yen
110.25/110.35 resistance
109.75/109.65 support
The Japanese yen was bearish ahead of the Bank of Japan's rate decision, but the dollar reversed course against the yen after the decision and comments from the BoJ governor. Markets are looking ahead to Friday's CPI results from Japan, with the dollar currently expected to settle at 110.25 or 110.35 resistance before testing 109.75 or 109.65 support.

USDCAD
1.3115/1.3125 resistance
1.3045/1.3035 support
The U.S. dollar remained steady against the Canadian dollar, trading in a tight range as the Bank of Canada set interest rates and markets looked to the Bank of Canada's monetary policy and economic outlook. In addition, the market to watch crude oil inventories change, crude oil price performance, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar. Looking forward to the Bank's monetary policy and economic outlook, the Canadian dollar. USDCAD is expected to test 1.3045 or 1.3035 support.

US crude oil futures
59.05/59.15 resistance
57.75/57.55 support
The US President's remarks yesterday focused on his economic stance and did not stir any political tensions. Risk aversion is not rising, crude oil prices are lower. The market looks ahead to tomorrow's U.S. API crude oil inventory results. Technically, refer to $57.75 and $57.55 support, up to $59 resistance.

Gold
1563/1565 resistance
1548/1546 support
Yesterday, the US President did not comment on the situation in the Middle East, mainly on the global economy and trade, gold prices high adjustment. Technically, gold prices are recommended to remain high. Short-term resistance at $1,563 or $1,565. In the event of an emergency, refer to significant resistance at $1, 585 or $1, 600.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
29355/29405 resistance
29170/29100 support
Yesterday, the US President made remarks on the economy and trade, without any negative market sentiment. Dow futures recovered from losses. Technically, an adjustment of more than 23.6 percent is possible to further down the adjustment wave of 50 percent, 29100 support. Note the 29355 or 29405 resistance in the short term.

BTCUSD:
9025 / 9175 resistance
8250 / 8000 support Dow futures were the first to fall on fears of stoking tensions, with investors locking in profits to unwind their positions in Asian trading and risk aversion rising. Keep watching the Dow future and global stocks market. If Dow fell, the bitcoin price could up. It is the same trend with the gold price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
800
How low can you go? Said the ECB to Eurozone inflation rate?

Despite the significant spike of the inflation rate across the 19 economies of eurozone, which reached a six-month high last month – the European Central Bank is still far from reaching its range of 2% inflation rate needed to reflect how healthy the economic landscape really is.

The main reason behind all the fuss of the 2% rate, is to maintain price stability in the euro area as a whole. Maybe we’re not there yet, but it might seem that we’re heading towards the right direction. Latter reports of CPI in Euro Zone countries, show a steady growth since October. In the past 3 months, the inflation increased respectively from 0.7% to 1% reaching its peak in December with a 1.3% rate. One thing to keep in mind while reading the chart below; the recent inflation rates are directly influenced by the increase money supply, a policy applied by the ECB through quantitative easing to give an artificially boost to the economy.

bl5805_1_8.jpg


So, the CPI are showing improvement but still below target – what should we conclude from that, you mayask?

Well, the markets are eagerly waiting for any statement, slip, hint, or really anything from the ECB officials to come up with assumptions. According to Yves Mersch, ECB’s governing council member, the final reports are showing good signs of stabilization, and his body language showed confidence - if you’re into reading behavioral signals. He also went to proudly stating that they “were proven right to have accommodative policies” and that “other policy areas need to kick in to help the ECB”. Being on the conservative side for too long, Mersch new laidback attitude could help the markets feeling more revealed towards reaching inflation target.

bl5805_2_8.jpg


But, should we really just count on Mersch rare good mood?

It is definitely too early to conclude whether the eurozone economic slowdown has reached its end. Especially when another ECB governing council member doesn’t share Mersch enthusiasm. For Robert Holzmann, even if the rates are getting better, as long as the target isn’t reached “negative rates will send the wrong signal” –and he might be right. Markets do dance to signal rhythms. Holzmann worry is also backed by the fear of a possible negative impact on the long term, on “productivity, banks and financial stability”.

Maybe it is better to leave them arguing until this week’s ECB meeting, and switch our focus to other significant indicators.

According to primary reports from the German Federal Statistical Office, Germany’s GDP witnessed an up stretch of 0.6% in 2019 compared to previous year. Even though the growth has been steady in the German economy for ten years in a row now – longest period of continuous economic growth in Germany – but it has definitely reached a slower tempo in 2019. We can have a better understanding of that, if we compare last year’s growth to its previous two years (GDP for 2017 grew by 2.5%, and in 2018 grew to 1.5%).

bl5805_3_4.jpg


Nothing seems too worrying, but most European economies do remain under pressure. Besides, final inflation rate doesn’t necessarily say the whole truth. A breakdown of main components in the inflation reports could be more important indicators for the ECB. For example, the main player in last month’s report results was energy price inflation, which went from -3.2% in November to 0.2% in December. Since non-energy industrial goods are directly connected to the state of global economy, the ECB should be keeping an eye on that.

For now, the main “gossips” in the markets are talking about a readjusted inflation target. A strategy that might help removing pressure from adapting tightening policy. Another scenario would be extending quantitate easing for a bit longer; a strategy that could serve the markets for the upcoming months, in hope that the economy can get itself together, act like a grownup for a change and leave the parents garage for good.

In any case, our expectations for the impact of this meeting on the euro will likely be instantaneous. However, If the ECB’s headed by Lagarde, adopted a different unexpected action, would it be a pleasant surprise for the markets or not? We can only wait and see.


What ECB Dove and Hawk members chart?
In general, "Hawk" are members inclined to tighten monetary policy to reduce inflation and accelerate growth while "Dove” members tending towards easing monetary policy to support growth and inflation.
Note - We have built this evaluation of the ECB Dove and Hawk members based on published members statements, interviews and recent voting in the monetary policy meetings, but it must be noted that all views here are self-evaluating - and that very few “Centralists” bank members explicitly describe themselves as Hawk or as Doves. Our opinions may differ from the views of others. It should also be noted that some members tend to historically stick to one side, while others tend to be more flexible in their decisions, shifting from one side to another.


Information provided by ATFX (AE) Head of Market Research: Ramy Abouzaid

Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555). Registered Office: 32 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3SG. Company No. 09827091
 

Kelly Yeung

ATFX.com Representative
Messages
800
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Feb 3


Personal opinions today:

The U.S. Labour force typically slows after the December economic and consumer cycle and season. Coupled with the global outbreak of pneumonia in recent months, the outlook for the global economy has slowed, indirectly affecting the U.S. economic growth. Markets will be watching closely this week for U.S. ADP private-sector job data and U.S. official non-farm payrolls. The market now expects U.S. ADP job numbers to fall to 155,000, with limited non-farm payrolls expected to end up at the same level or lower than the U.S. ADP job number in January. Investors are already concerned about expectations and lack of investment appetite, with Dow futures expected to move down in line with global equities. Commodity demand fell, bearish commodity currencies and oil prices. Capital may flow to gold and the Japanese yen are expected to continue.

In European trading, we are watching the final reading of manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone in January. In the evening, the U.S. Markit and ISM manufacturing PMI for January was even more noteworthy. If the U.S. data beat market expectations, it could lead to short-term volatility in the U.S. dollar and Dow futures. However, the overall investment outlook, the dollar index and Dow futures rose limit.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * refers to the degree of importance


09:30 China manufacturing PMI for January **
16:55 German manufacturing PMI final for January ***
17:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI final for January **
17:30 UK manufacturing PMI for January ***
22:45 U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI final for January ***
23:00 U.S. construction spending in December *
23:00 U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for January **


EURUSD
1.1105/1.1115 resistance
1.1050/1.1040 support

The Euro and Pound rose as British prime minister Boris Johnson brought a positive attitude to the Brexit as the UK actively dealt with the deal, boosting investor confidence. In Europe today, investors watched for the final reading on manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone in January. The market is bullish on the Euro. More important to see tonight's U.S. economic data performance, It could possible to a bullish dollar, bearish Euro trend.

Pound to dollar
1.3210/1.3220 resistance
1.3135/1.3125 support

Britain has officially left the European Union, entering a period of transition from the EU. The British prime minister Boris Johnson has addressed the nation on Brexit, making positive remarks about the prospects for resolving a trade deal with the European Union. Technically, sterling 1.3200 above test important resistance. If U.S. economic data beat market expectations tonight, it is likely to be bullish for the dollar and bearish for the pound.

Australian dollar
0.6725/0.6735 resistance
0.6680/0.6670 support

RBA rate has a monetary decision, the market is expected to keep rates unchanged. But at the end of last year, the RBA chairman said he intended to cut rates, lowering the target rate to 0.5%. Short-term Australian dollar interest rate futures suggest the RBA is expected to cut rates in June. If the RBA keeps rates on hold and signals an optimistic economic outlook, the Australian dollar has a chance to rebound from its lows against the greenback. Technically, the reference Australian dollar's 5-year low against the U.S. dollar is 0.6668. If not lost and rebound, AUDUSD looks up to 0.6755 and 0.6800

Dollar to yen
108.95/109.05 resistance
108.20/108.10 support

Global stock markets were bearish as financial institutions assessed first-quarter economic expectations for a drop. Markets will be watching tonight's U.S. economic data and will be more focused on a number of U.S. economic data this week. Technically, I recommended keeping an eye on Dow futures. If Dow futures fall, the USDJPY moves downward further.

USDCAD
1.3260/1.3270 resistance
1.3220/1.3210 support

Financial institutions evaluated the global economic slowdown in the first quarter, the demand for crude oil products fell, crude oil prices fell, indirectly bearish the Canadian dollar. OPEC members are currently studying the timing of its meeting to discuss oil supplies. If there is no intention to reduce production, crude oil prices continue to decline trend, are expected to further bearish the Canadian dollar. Short-term focus on the performance of the U.S. manufacturing PMI tonight, indirectly affecting the dollar volatility. In addition, it is recommended to pay close attention to crude oil price fluctuations and operate to trade the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
51.85/52.15 resistance
50.35/50.05 support

Financial institutions are assessing signs of a slowdown in the global economy and OPEC members and non-members have no intention of cutting output. That, combined with a drop in seasonal demand for crude, pushed prices lower. Short-term focus on tonight's U.S. data indirectly affected the price volatility. Technically, $50.35 and $50.05 first target support. However, the factors mentioned above have not been resolved, and crude oil prices are expected to continue their downward trend.

Gold
1594/1596 resistance
1576/1574 support

A slowing global economy and looser monetary policy have the opportunity to push up gold prices. Eye on the U.S. manufacturing PMI tonight is also a cause for concern, and how it affects gold price volatility. If U.S. data is weak and Dow futures fall, gold has an opportunity to continue rising. It is believed that due to the global economic problems, the short-term gold price adjustment decline is limited.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28495/28600 resistance
28130/28065 support

Financial institutions predicted a slowdown in the global economy in the first quarter and believed dow futures were bearish. If U.S. economic data disappointed investors tonight, Dow futures will continue to fall. With the end of the financial reporting period for U.S. corporations, it is worth keeping an eye out for seasonally adjusted factors. Dow futures are in a downward adjustment cycle and are expected to test the key support level for the 28130 targets.

BTCUSD:
9575 / 9800 resistance
9050 / 8800 support

Most financial institutions forecast the global economic slowdown in the first quarter. Dow futures and Asian stock markets trading lower. Keep watching the Dow future and global stocks market indexes keeping downtrend, the bitcoin price could up.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Website: https://www.atfx.com/gm/en/?utm_sou...media-buy_all_forum_free_en&utm_content=forum
 
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