BetOnMarkets- Economic calendar for week July 28th - August 1st 2008.

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BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing
Contents This Week:
Economic calendar for week July 28th - August 1st 2008.
Commentary: The week ahead.
Economic Calendar for week July 28th - August 1st 2008

PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT not BST. BST is +1 Hr.

Monday July 28th:

UK - Tentaive - Nationwide House Prices M/M.
GE - 06:00 - Consumer Confidence.
US - 16.00 - FOMC Member Mishkin Speaks.

Tuesday July 29th:

GE - Tentative - Prelim CPI M/M.
UK - 08:30 - Mortgage Approvals.
UK - 08:30 - Net Lending to Individuals M/M.
UK - 10:00 - CBI Distributive Trades Realised.
US - 13:00 - S&P/CaseSchiller HPI Composite-20.
US - 14:00 - Consumer Confidence Index.

Wednesday July 30th:

GE - 06:00 - German Retail Sales M/M.
EU - 09:00 - Consumer Confidence.
US - 12:15 - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change.
US - 14:35 - Crude Oil Inventories.
UK - 23:01 - GfK Consumer Confidence.

Thursday July 31st:

GE - 07:55 - Unemployment Change.
EU - 09:00 - CPI Flash Estimate Y/Y.
US - 12:30 - Advance GDP Q/Q.
US - 12:30 - Advance GDP Price Index Q/Q.
US - 12:30 - Employment Cost Index.
US - 13:45 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 13:45 - Chicago Business Barometer.

Friday August 1st:

EU - 08:00 - Manufacturing PMI.
UK - 08:30 - Manufacturing PMI.
US - 12:30 - Nonfarm Employment Change.
US - 12:30 - Unemployment Rate.
US - 12:30 - Average Hourly Earnings M/M.
US - 14:00 - ISM Manufacturing Index.
US - 14:00 - ISM Manufacturing Prices.
US - 14:00 - Construction Spending M/M.

EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany

The week ahead.

Markets endured a volatile week, finishing largely flat despite dramatic 2.5%+ falls on Thursday. In the UK, banking stocks managed to build on the shift in sentiment from last week, but US financials endured further bad news, with Wachovia bank posting a record loss. The beleaguered bank produced an eye watering loss of $8.9 billion for the quarter, slashed its dividend and announced thousands of job cuts. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reversed the gains from last week on fears of complications in the proposed bail out. There were mixed results from major US companies, with tech firms such as Amazon impressing and online DVD retailer Netflix continuing its good run of earnings reports. Apples disappointing figures caused some consternation early in the week, but the Ipod manufacturer wasnt beaten down for long. After opening the day down over $10, Apple recovered the opening losses and more, as sales of the new iphone look to be taking off.

Lower energy prices certainly helped ease the pressure on global markets last week. However, this easing has to be taken in the context of slowing demand from the US and China. Oil closed the week around $125, some $20 below its peak just few weeks ago. Natural gas has fallen even further than oil. Gas has dropped from above 13.50 to 9.737 in July alone, representing a huge 28% collapse. Other commodities have also fallen back in dramatic fashion with Corn and Wheat down at least 40% from their peak prices. Gold has dropped, but less than other commodities, falling 7% coming with $10 of $1000. These falls will be welcomed by governments and central bankers alike, but the real test for global economies, will be the lagging effect of spiraling wage demands.
At the centre of the storm, the US economy is also showing sides of further weakness, not recovery as many hoped at the beginning of this week. US initial jobless claims came in worse than expected and 95% of US metro areas experienced year on year increases in foreclosure activity. It is little wonder they are so bad with the average 30 year fixed mortgage in the US now at its highest level since 2002, despite the dramatic rate cuts from the fed earlier this year. Oil is hovering around the $125 mark, but that will be little comfort to Ford who registered an $8.7bn loss, as consumers shun their gas guzzling SUV heavy catalogue of vehicles. The buying from last week is looking increasingly like a suckers rally as traders realise that the worst may not be behind us, and may in fact may appear very soon in the future.

Next weeks first economic announcement of note is the US consumer Confidence Index. As has been the case with many announcements recently, it will be a question of how bad the figures are rather than how good. Wednesday brings US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change figures, followed by US GDP numbers on Thursday. The First Friday of the new month is always the heaviest with the arrival of US Non Farm Payroll figures.
With US Mortgage applications dropping 6.2% again recently, and profit warnings from Toyota and Ford, the US economy may not be out of the waters just yet. However, the Non Farm Payroll figure, or at least the reaction to them, has the potential to spring a surprise in either direction in the short term. Therefore a volatility trade may be the better option over the coming days. An Up or Down trade returns a profit if either of two levels are hit during the specified time period. An Up or Down trade on the Dow Jones (Wall Street) with the levels set as 11000 and 12000 could return 32% over the next 11 days.
 
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