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BetOnMarkets Morning report

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Erik, Jan 26, 2009.

  1. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

    Jul 23, 2008
    Likes Received:
    Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

    The FTSE is currently indicating a flat opening, as traders wait for the release of the BBA mortgage loans number. While the Bank of England can cut interest rates, as long as banks are not lending money to credit starved business and consumers the economy is going to struggle. Should the loan number be better then expected look for the retail and manufacturing stocks to get a nice boost.

    Crude oil fell from a two-week high on speculation recession in the world's largest economies will curtail demand for fuel and energy. A report later this week will probably show the U.S. economy shrank 5.5 percent in the fourth-quarter, the fastest pace in 26 years. White House officials are working to get President Barack Obamas $825 billion stimulus package approved by mid-February to create or save as many as 4 million jobs.
    Oil prices will likely spend most of the week near the 40 dollars per barrel level.

    Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
    FTSE: 4053.0 (+8.2)
    CAC40 2849.70 (+6.20)
    DAX30 4173.80 (-7.0)
    DOW: 7987 (-77)
    SP500 821.60 (-4.63)
    Gold: 891.40 (-1.03)
    Oil: 45.73 (-0.48)

    BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from 1 to 25,000 GBP.

  2. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

    Jul 23, 2008
    Likes Received:
    BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing Report


    BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing
    Contents This Week:
    Economic calendar for week 26th - 30th January 2009.
    Commentary: The week ahead.
    Economic Calendar for week 26th - 30th January 2009

    PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT

    Monday January 26th:

    UK - 09:30 - BBA Mortgage Approvals.
    US - 15:00 - Existing Home Sales.
    US - 15:00 - CB Leading Index M/M.

    Tuesday January 27th:

    GE - 09:00 - Ifo Business Climate.
    EU - 09:00 - Current Account.
    UK - 11:00 - CBI Realized Sales.
    US - 14:00 - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y.
    US - 15:00 - CB Consumer Confidence.
    US - 15:00 - Richmond Manufacturing Index.

    Wednesday January 28th:

    GE - 07:00 - GfK Consumer Climate.
    GE - 07:00 - Prelim CPI M/M.
    US - 15:30 - Crude Oil Inventories.
    US - 19:15 - FOMC Statement.
    US - 19:15 - Federal Funds Rate.
    Thursday January 29th:

    UK - 00:01 - Nationwide HPI M/M.
    GE - 08:55 - Unemployment Change.
    EU - 09:00 - M3 Money Supply Y/Y.
    EU - 09:00 - Private Loans Y/Y.
    EU - 10:00 - Consumer Confidence Y/Y.
    US - 13:30 - Core Durable Goods Orders M/M.
    US - 13:30 - Durable Goods Orders M/M.
    US - 13:30 - Unemployment Claims.
    US - 15:00 - New Home Sales.
    US - 15:30 - Natural Gas Storage.
    Friday January 30th:

    UK -00:01 - GfK Consumer Confidence.
    UK - 09:30 - Net Lending to Individuals M/M.
    UK - 09:30 - Mortgage Approvals.
    EU - 10:00 - CPI Flash Estimate Y/Y.
    EU - 10:00 - Unemployment Rate.
    US - 13:30 - Advance GDP Q/Q.
    US - 13:30 - Advance GDP Price Index Q/Q.
    US - 13:30 - Employment Cost Index Q/Q.
    US - 14:45 - Chicago PMI.
    US - 14:55 - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.
    US - 14:55 - Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.

    EU - Europe wide
    FR - France
    UK - United Kingdom
    US - United States
    GE - Germany

    The week ahead.
    Considering the dead weight financial sector, stock markets could have fallen a lot further than they eventually did over the course of last week. However, theres no getting away from the mess that financial shares are in. Just over two years ago today, the RBS share price hit an all time high of £7.24. Last weeks low of just 10p highlights the markets underlying concern that the financial cancer has not been completely removed. Last weeks treasury announcement regarding a second round of bailouts seemed to have little impact. In fact, in many ways it had the complete opposite effect.
    The spectre of full nationalisation looms large over the likes of RBS and Lloyds, and the prospect of this is weighing heavily on the beleaguered pound. Sterling is being shunned as traders speculate on the scale of the governments eventual liability with regard to the banks.
    The finger of blame for the current collapse in banking shares is pointing at the short sellers once again. John McFall, Chairman of the Treasury Committee, wrote to the head of the FSA asking them to investigate anecdotal evidence that some hedge funds have been shorting stocks.
    It is almost inevitable that the short sellers get the blame; they are after all a convenient target. However, it should be recognised that conventional investors selling their holdings in droves can have a greater effect on a share price. After nationalisation of Railtrack and Northern Rock, investors could be forgiven for taking their cash and running at the faintest whiff of nationalisation for Barclays, RBS or Lloyds. While the short sellers may be playing a part, it is record losses, ongoing rumours and unquantifiable risks that rattle share prices the most.
    Barry Ritholtz of www.ritholtz.com put it rather bluntly Go Swedish. Wipe out shareholders, bond holders, and all the bad debt and junk paper these firms hold. Zero it out, spin out the assets with clean balance sheets.. The Treasury has effectively admitted that it has no idea how much this will all cost UK tax payers eventually. This coupled with a rumoured downgrade to the sovereign credit rating of the UK government has pushed sterling down to below 1.3700 against the dollar level. The final nail in the coffin for Sterling came when the UK GDP figures came in well below estimates at -1.5% for the last quarter.

    The coming weeks big ticket item is the next FOMC interest rate decision. With rates currently at 0.25%, there is little room for manoeuvre. Speculators will be following the announcement closely to see if the Federal Reserve will follow Japans lead from the 1980s, and cut rates to zero. Almost as important as the rate decision, will be any accompanying announcements on other measures the central bank is taking to get credit markets functioning again.

    Volatility is likely to continue next week on the currency markets with sterling possibly continuing to come under pressure. Against the Dollar, the Pound hit levels not seen for years, yet against the Euro the pound is yet to fall to the 2008 low. The Euro is also weak against the dollar as the so called SPIG countries (Spain, Portugal, Italy/ Ireland & Greece) weigh against the relative strength of North European nations. Sterling could have further to fall; the Euro is not as strong as it was once perceived to be.

    A Double Touch trade predicting that the EUR/ GBP exchange rate will hit 0.9280 and 0.95, could return 119% over the next 7 days.


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