BetOnMarkets Market Reports

Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening, as traders wait for the latest interest rate decision by the Bank of England. While it is widely expected for the BOE to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, everyone will be paying attention to the statement that comes out with the announcement to see if this is the last rate cut or not. Where the FTSE opens on Thursday will greatly depend on that statement.

Oil prices fell after a government report showed that U.S. inventories of the fuel jumped more than twice the amount analysts forecast. The increase last week left stockpiles 15 percent higher than the five-year average for the period, which should press OPEC to cut supplies at its next meeting. Look for oil prices to trade around the 40 dollars per barrel level until Fridays US employment data.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4180.8 (-44.7)
CAC40 3016 (-49.50)
DAX30 4423.5 (-57.5)
DOW: 7955 (+5)
SP500 829.73 (-2.25)
Gold: 904.05 (+0.35)
Oil: 40.29 (+0.01)



BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from 1 to 25,000 GBP.


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Despite today’s US payrolls falling by a more than expected 598,000, stock markets are powering higher. Let’s be frank, this was an extremely weak employment report with 3.5 million fewer Americans employed In January than a year earlier. However, the world’s biggest economy isn’t willing to roll over and die just yet. The rate of decline is accelerating, but US unemployment is still the peaks of the 1980s and 1970s. Stock markets are moving higher today on the hope that today’s dire figures will act as a catalyst for the massive Obama stimulus package. When stock markets go up on bad news, it is often a good sign that investors have re-discovered their appetite for risk taking.

Even BP and Shell are moving higher today despite oil prices dipping below $40 a barrel. The bears have been handed plenty of opportunities to take control, but so far today, the bulls have won out. That is arguably a very encouraging indication that 2009 won’t end the year as it started.

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It was a better week for world stock markets last week, with all the major indices pushing further off the January lows.

Despite Friday’s US payrolls falling by a more than expected 598,000, stock markets powered higher. This was an extremely weak employment report, with 3.5 million fewer Americans employed In January than a year earlier. However, the world’s biggest economy isn’t willing to roll over and die just yet. The rate of decline is accelerating, but US unemployment is still below the peaks of the 1980s and 1970s. Stock markets moved higher on the hope that Friday’s dire figures will act as a catalyst for the massive Obama stimulus package. In the UK, banks pushed higher as speculation mounts that the bad bank plan is back on the cards. RBS is rumoured to be the first test of this model with other banks applying this template if successful. Judging by the rally in financial shares last week, traders are keen on this plan to come to fruition.

Commodities continued to drift lower, with oil falling through support at $40. Oil producers shrugged off the news to finish up on the week. However, lower energy prices cannot be shrugged off by all of those with a stake in the commodity. The Russian government had its credit rating downgraded due to fears over the impact of the collapse in oil prices. The rouble continued its free fall.

Last week, the Bank of England cut rates to 1% as widely expected, and at the same time, the ECB signalled that it may cut rates in March. Despite the cut, it was a good week for Sterling, especially against the euro, as traders adjust their positions in light of the strong rate cut hint from Trichet.

There was some positive news from the Halifax housing report which showed that UK house prices rose last month. However, it is hard to read too much into this rise as the data conflicts with the previously released Nationwide report, and month to month figures are often subject to wide variance. Next week’s highlights include a number of speeches from prominent central bankers including Treasury secretary Geithner, and FOMC chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday. On Wednesday Governor King speaks at the release of the BOE inflation report. ECB president, Trichet is due to speak on Thursday. Aside from this, we also have US retail sales and unemployment claims on Thursday. When stock markets go up on bad news as they did last week, it is often a good sign that investors have re-discovered their appetite for risk taking.

Even BP and Shell were moving higher on Friday, despite oil prices dipping below $40 a barrel. The bears have been handed plenty of opportunities to take control, but so far today, the bulls have won out. That is arguably a very encouraging indication that 2009 won"t end the year as it started.

A Bull bet predicting that the Dow Jones (Wall Street) will be higher than 8500 in 11 days could return 135% at BetOnMarkets.

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World stock markets are mixed, with the FTSE 100 nudging ahead on a day of tepid trading. The better than expected figures from Barclays has certainly given UK equities on boost, but it is not enough to make the UK’s benchmark index of 100 stocks push through Friday’s trading range.

Barclay’s figures have been well received, but their share price still has a long way to go if it can be deemed to have turned the corner. Last February, Barclay’s shares hit £5.24, even with today’s 12% rise they are still more than £4.00 below this level. The so called independence premium could start to play out in the second half of the year, especially if Barclays start to pay a dividend once again. However, for now, investors are understandably hesitant to take anyone’s word on this.

Wider equities are range bound as the benchmark US indices retreat on the news that the Obama bailout plan won’t be announced until tomorrow. Markets more than anything hate indecision and until a resolution looks likely, or at lease strong rumours of a resolution circulate, equities will trade in a tight range until tomorrow afternoon.

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Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening, as traders are worried that the UK employment data will come out weaker then expected. Analysts are expecting the British economy to have shed 88 thousand jobs, however there are rumors that the loss is greater then that. The FTSE opening price will greatly depend on the employment numbers.

Oil is up this morning partly retracing yesterday's 5.1 percent loss, as the U.S. Senate passed an economic stimulus plan, raising expectations for increases in fuel demand. Oil prices have been hurt this week over a concern that todays inventory numbers will show another build in supply. Oil prices are likely to stay below 40 dollars a barrel for the next few days.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4160.4 (-30.1)
CAC40 2972.20 (-42.30)
DAX30 4448.9 (-96.1)
DOW: 7919 (+33)
SP500 830.53 (+1.00)
Gold: 912.15 (-2.95)
Oil: 37.93 (+0.37)



BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from 1 to 25,000 GBP.

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Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com


The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening, as the sell off that started in Asia is expected to continue. Traders are worried that the Euro-Zone industrial production numbers will create more doubt regarding the economy in Europe and possibly UK. The FTSE is probably spend most of the day in the red.

Crude oil is currently trading at $36 a barrel after dropping to the lowest level in four weeks yesterday as a U.S. government report showed a bigger-than-expected increase in inventories. Oil has declined 19 percent this year and dropped 61 percent from a year earlier. Oil prices will probably stay near the 35 dollar level for the rest of the week.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4213.9 (-15.6)
CAC40 3008.30 (-17.00)
DAX30 4505.2 (-21.3)
DOW: 7904 (-35)
SP500 832.28 (-1.00)
Gold: 940.75 (-0.60)
Oil: 35.99 (+.01)


BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from 1 to 25,000 GBP.

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Despite some better than expect US economic data, markets are firmly on the back foot today as economic and banking fears continue to darken sentiment across the globe. After rallying into Treasury Secretary Geithner’s speech on Tuesday, US markets are continuing to unwind. Perhaps it was a case of markets expecting clarity and getting nothing of the sort.

Of more concern was the data released from the ECB that stated that borrowing from the marginal lending facility hit 10.4 billion Euros, well above recent averages and the highest since November 10th. It may be a blip, but this lending spike could imply that a major bank is in trouble. Irish banks are seeking recapitalisation and UK banks are thought to making use of the ECB’s facilities as well as their European counterparts. Barclays is the stand out faller amongst financials today and though there is no evidence of a connection, it is worth keeping an eye on this.
Oil continues to drop as global economic activity falters. On the other hand gold is on the rise and pushing back up towards $1000 as investors seek out safe havens while stock markets gyrate and central banks scour their text books for the next plan of action.

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Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

The FTSE is currently indicating a very strong opening, as traders are hoping that the improving Chinese economy will help the equities on the FTSE. We don't expect a lot of volume today; however the FTSE is likely to end in the green this week.

Oil traded at the lowest level in 7 weeks yesterday, leading to the worst weekly decline since December. Crude prices are a little higher after equities gained on speculation governments will widen efforts to help consumers weather a deepening global recession. We expect oil prices to stay around the 35 dollars per barrel level to end the week.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4263.7 (+73.2)
CAC40 3013.70 (+52.40)
DAX30 4473.5 (+68.50)
DOW: 7970 (+41)
SP500 840.78 (+3.00)
Gold: 941.25 (-9.40)
Oil: 34.52 (+0.69)



BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from 1 to 25,000 GBP.


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BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing
Contents This Week:
Economic calendar for week 16th - 20th February 2009.
Commentary: The week ahead.


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Economic Calendar for week 16th - 20th February 2009

PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT

Monday February 16th:

US - ALL - President's Day. Bank Holiday.
UK - 00:01 - Rightmove HPI M/M.
UK - 14:00 - MPC Member Bean Speaks.
UK - 14:00 - FOMC Member Duke Speaks.

Tuesday February 17th:

UK - 09:30 - CPI Y/Y.
UK - 09:30 - Core CPI Y/Y.
UK - 09:30 - DCLG HPI Y/Y.
UK - 09:30 - RPI Y/Y.
GE - 10:00 - ZEW Economic Sentiment.
EU - 10:00 - ZEW Economic Sentiment.
EU - 10:00 - Trade Balance.
US - 13:30 - Empire State Manufacturing Index.
US - 14:00 - TIC Long-Term Purchases.
US - 18:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index.
UK - 18:30 - MPC Member Besley Speaks

Wednesday February 18th:

UK - 09:30 - MPC Meeting Minutes.
UK - 11:00 - CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
US - 13:30 - Building Permits.
US - 13:30 - Housing Starts.
US - 13:30 - Import Prices M/M.
US - 14:15 - Capacity Utilization Rate.
US - 14:15 - Industrial Production M/M.
US - 18:00 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
US - 18:30 - FOMC Member Evans Speaks.
US - 19:00 - FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Thursday February 19th:

UK - 09:30 - Public Sector Net Borrowing.
UK - 09:30 - Prelim M4 Money Supply M/M.
US - 13:30 - PPI M/M.
US - 13:30 - Core PPI M/M.
US - 13:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 15:00 - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
US - 15:00 - CB Leading Index M/M.
US - 15:30 - Natural Gas Storage.
US - 16:00 - Crude Oil Inventories.
UK - 17:00 - MPC Member Gieve Speaks.
US - 18:15 - FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks.

Friday February 20th:

FR - 07:45 - CPI M/M.
FR - 08:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
FR - 08:00 - Flash Services PMI.
GE - 08:30 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
GE - 08:30 - Flash Services PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Flash Services PMI.
UK - 09:30 - Retail Sales M/M.
US - 13:30 - Core CPI M/M.
US - 13:30 - CPI M/M.

EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany


The week ahead.
After a terrible Tuesday, markets never really recovered last week. After rallying into Treasury Secretary Geithner’s speech on Tuesday, US markets unwound in spectacular fashion. It appears to have been a case of markets expecting clarity from the new US administration, and getting nothing of the sort. The Dow Jones touched its lowest levels since November 2008 at one point.

Whether it was a case of ‘sell the news’ or a technical sell off, there’s no getting away from the fact that yesterday’s fall will have left central bankers and government officials cursing.
The rule book is being re-written by the week, as officials try one solution after another. Much was made of Bernanke’s expertise on the Great Depression, and arguably his dramatic interventions have helped stave off a financial apocalypse. However, right now it’s a blank slate, the scary thing about the current crisis is that nobody really knows how bad it will get, and when it will turn around.
Lloyds Group threw the markets another banking cluster bomb on Friday; seemingly out of nowhere Lloyds announced a £7bn write-down in HBOS’s corporate division. The shares closed the day down nearly a third on the news. According to CEO Eric Daniels, these losses reflect the application of a more conservative recognition of risk, and the further deterioration in the economic environment. Analysts at JP Morgan wrote a note the previous day saying “If the regulator were to require a more ‘comprehensive’ stress buffer, given that none of the banks have raised capital since, it would probably require them all coming to market, and probably requiring government capital.” (Cited in FT Alphaville). Judging by the HBOS announcement and the market’s reaction, JP Morgan may not be far off the mark.
Another concern was the data released from the ECB which stated that borrowing from the marginal lending facility hit 10.4 billion Euros, well above recent averages and the highest since November 10th. It may be a blip, but this lending spike could imply that a major bank is in trouble. Irish banks are seeking recapitalisation and UK banks are thought to making use of the ECB’s facilities as well as their European counterparts.
Bank of England Governor King, warned that Britain is in a ‘deep recession’ with the rate of contraction potentially reaching as high as 6%. Exactly where a deep recession becomes a depression is up for debate, and perhaps such a label can only be applied in retrospect. Markets are taking each day and each economic announcement as they come, with the unfortunate result being a continuation of short term volatility. Still, markets have held above the November lows for now. If these levels fail, it could be the defining point of 2009 for world stock markets.
Oil continues to drop as global economic activity falters. On the other hand gold is on the rise and pushing back up towards $1000, as investors seek out safe havens while stock markets gyrate and central banks scour their text books for the next plan of action.

Next week’s top trading events are the release of the MPC meeting minutes on Wednesday. Analysts will be looking for clues as to the likelihood of further cuts towards zero for UK interest rates. Later that afternoon we have Fed chairman Bernanke speaking, followed by the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Following the same theme, the Bank of Japan announced their overnight call rate in the early hours of Thursday. There is unlikely to be any movement, but the following press conference could spark some volatility as traders react to any additional central bank interventions.

Last week oil fell to around $35 a barrel, yet oil majors such as BP managed to hold up relatively well. A No Touch trade predicting that BP won"t touch £4.60 at any time during the next two months (60 days) could return 62% at BetOnMarkets.


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Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com

The FTSE is currently indicating a weaker opening, after the right move house index showed a 9.1% drop in year over year in home prices. While Monday is expected to be a quiet day, with North America on holiday, Tuesday promises to be a day full of volatility. Between the CPI and retail sales data, we should get a good picture at how the British economy is doing.

Crude oil is trading near the $38 a barrel on speculation that the recession in the world's largest economies will slash demand for fuel and energy. Reports today showed that Japan's economy, the world's largest oil consumer after the U.S. and China, shrunk at the fastest pace since 1974. Oil prices are likely to trade below the 40 dollars per barrel level until the inventory report later this week.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4135.1 (-43.9)
CAC40 2953.70 (-42.80)
DAX30 4357.3 (-50.7)
DOW: 7768 (-65)
SP500 817.03 (-5.50)
Gold: 937.85 (-3.80)
Oil: 37.52 (+0.05)



BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from 1 to 25,000 GBP.


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