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BetOnMarkets Morning Update

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Erik, Jul 25, 2008.

  1. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a week open, are awaiting the very important UK Consumer Price Index. The Bank of England has been struggling for the last few months to maintain a balance between controlling inflation, and trying to jump start a sputtering economy. Todays data will show if the BOEs job will become easier or not. A weak CPI number will result in a very strong open for the FTSE.

    Renewed worries about a slowing down economy across the world, has pushed oil prices to a 14 week low. While escalating tension in Russia , traders are worried that a slowdown will lower demand will continue to be the overall theme. We will be looking forward to Wednesdays Department of Energy inventory supplies, which tends to move the market. Gold is nearing 800 dollars for the first time this year, as the strength of the US dollar has forced all those holding gold as a hedge to sell out of their positions, While we feel this is overdone, the recover of the US dollar has began.
     
  2. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a weaker open as traders are waiting for the release of the UK employment numbers. Some analysts are expecting for an increase in the unemployment rate, which will give more reason for the BOE to cut the interest rate at the next meeting. We feel that the unemployment rate will be even worse then expected, and if it happens look for the FTSE to open almost 1% weaker.

    Oil broke through the 115 dollar support level, on speculation that a U.S. government report today will show refiners cut output, signalling a drop in demand in the world's largest energy consumer, a build-up in the US inventory could push oil below 110 dollars per barrel. Gold is trading just above the 800 dollar level, and it seems like its going to go lower, as the US dollar is picking up steam against the other currencies. We will not be surprised if gold drops below 800 based on positive US dollar sentiment.
     
  3. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    The FTSE is currently indicating a higher open as traders are anticipating that the economic news from its main trading partner, European Union, comes out better then expected. Today around the same time the FTSE opens for trade, the European Union will be releasing its GDP results for the 2nd quarter. Analysts are excepting for a contraction of 0.2%, however we have heard rumours that there is a chance that the number will come out much higher. Should this happen we could see the FTSE close up more then 100 points

    Gold is benefiting from bottom buying. Some traders are hoping that the recent US dollar strength is over done and that gold is poised for a jump back up to 900 dollars per ounce.
    Oil benefited yesterday from the bullish inventory numbers, however the overall down trend should resume today and we could retest the 114 dollar level.
     
  4. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    BetOnMarkets Morning Report

    The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening as traders await the release of the UK retail sales numbers. While economists are expecting a contraction of 0.2%, traders are hedging in case the numbers come out worse then expected. Should this happen, the FTSE could open 1% lower.

    Gold is in recovery mode as the strength of the US dollar wanes. Gold is now trading above the 820 dollar per ounce mark, and is poised to go higher. Oil had a very interesting day; after bearish inventory data, which saw crude oil fall below the 114 dollar mark, the black gold recovered and coupled with the weakness of the US equities market, finished the day above the 116 dollar per barrel mark. We expect oil to follow the US dollar, if the dollar weakens then look for oil to test 120 dollar level.
     
  5. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    BetOnMarkets Morning Report

    The FTSE currently indicates a flat open, as there is no economic data to help the traders determine where the FTSE is headed next. Today's trading could be influenced by the data that is released in Europe and US, especially the European consumer confidence report. Look for a quiet day, as most traders are going to be taking off early to enjoy the last weekend of summer.

    Oil traders felt like they just took a rollercoaster ride yesterday. Oil finished down almost 3 dollars per barrel and at one point was trading below the 115 dollar mark. We suggest for traders to stay out of the oil market until after the weekend, as hurricane Gustav is unpredictable.

    BetOnMarkets
     
  6. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    BetOnMarkets Morning Report

    The FTSE is currently indicates a lower open as traders await the release economic data regarding the state of the UK banking sector. Economists are wondering how well this sector is doing, especially the mortgage industry. An increase in approved loans could signal that the banking industry is once again ready to lend money to the public.

    Oil should be front and center as Hurricane Gustav makes landfall around the time London closes for the day. There are rumors that Hurricane Gustav is going to hit the oil producing area of the Gulf of Mexico. This could result in the price of oil retesting the record price set earlier this year.

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  7. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    BetOnMarkets Morning Report

    The FTSE currently indicates a flat opening as traders wait to see what the Bank of England decides before putting money into the equities market. The BOE finds it self again at a cross roads, trying to decide which fire is more dangerous, inflation or an economy on the brink of a recession. I would not want to have that job today.

    Oil finally broke below the 200 day moving average and is technically in a free fall until the 100 dollar per barrel mark. Due to the shortened week in US, the inventory numbers will be released today instead of Wednesday, this release should have a significant effect on the price of oil today. Gold keeps trading lower as renewed optimism regarding the US economy has traders selling gold and buying the US dollar. Look for the very important employment figures today around lunch, which will give you a hint regarding tomorrows all important employment rate for US. Strong numbers could possibly send gold below 800 dollars per ounce.

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  8. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    BetOnMarkets Morning Report

    The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening although there is no UK economic data today, the FTSE will be influenced by the release of the US employment numbers. Analysts are expecting a loss of 75 thousand jobs, after studying the economic reports we believe, that number is too optimistic. If the employment data comes out soft, watch for the FTSE and all the other major stock exchanges to finish the day deep in the red.

    Oil has continued its free fall and a lot of it can be credited to the latest wave of strong US dollar sentiment. With the GBP/USD now trading below 1.80 dollar mark, the US dollar has appreciated by more then 10% in the last 4 weeks. Traders will be analyzing today's employment data very carefully, to see if the recovery was warranted.

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  9. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    BetOnMarkets Morning Report

    The FTSE currently indicates a flat opening, as traders await the release of the UK Industrial and Manufacturing production numbers. While analysts expect flat growth for the month of July, we feel that the number is a little optimistic resulting in the market possibly opening lower this morning.

    Oil prices are trading lower, as another hurricane is slated to miss the key oil producing fields. Adding to the lower oil price is the resurgence in the strength of the US dollar, which traded at an 11 month high versus the Euro. We might see the Euro trade as low as 1.35 per US dollar this month.

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  10. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    BetOnMarkets Morning Report

    The FTSE is currently indicates a weaker opening as traders await the release of the UK trade balance numbers. While the weekend nationalization of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in the US gave the FTSE and every other equities index a boost on Monday, it was very short lived, as the FTSE finds itself exactly where it was last Friday. It seems like traders are not satisfied with the take over and are worried that nothing changed in the mortgage debt market.

    Oil keeps taking in on the chin as it seems like every hurricane starts to weaken before hitting the important oil producing fields. Not helping is the stronger US dollar which keeps making the oil contracts cheaper.
    It is possible that we can see prices below 100 dollars per barrel this month.

    BetOnMarkets
     

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