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BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Erik, Feb 16, 2009.

  1. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing
    Contents This Week:
    Economic calendar for week 16th - 20th February 2009.
    Commentary: The week ahead.


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    Economic Calendar for week 16th - 20th February 2009

    PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT

    Monday February 16th:

    US - ALL - President's Day. Bank Holiday.
    UK - 00:01 - Rightmove HPI M/M.
    UK - 14:00 - MPC Member Bean Speaks.
    UK - 14:00 - FOMC Member Duke Speaks.

    Tuesday February 17th:

    UK - 09:30 - CPI Y/Y.
    UK - 09:30 - Core CPI Y/Y.
    UK - 09:30 - DCLG HPI Y/Y.
    UK - 09:30 - RPI Y/Y.
    GE - 10:00 - ZEW Economic Sentiment.
    EU - 10:00 - ZEW Economic Sentiment.
    EU - 10:00 - Trade Balance.
    US - 13:30 - Empire State Manufacturing Index.
    US - 14:00 - TIC Long-Term Purchases.
    US - 18:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index.
    UK - 18:30 - MPC Member Besley Speaks

    Wednesday February 18th:

    UK - 09:30 - MPC Meeting Minutes.
    UK - 11:00 - CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
    US - 13:30 - Building Permits.
    US - 13:30 - Housing Starts.
    US - 13:30 - Import Prices M/M.
    US - 14:15 - Capacity Utilization Rate.
    US - 14:15 - Industrial Production M/M.
    US - 18:00 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
    US - 18:30 - FOMC Member Evans Speaks.
    US - 19:00 - FOMC Meeting Minutes.

    Thursday February 19th:

    UK - 09:30 - Public Sector Net Borrowing.
    UK - 09:30 - Prelim M4 Money Supply M/M.
    US - 13:30 - PPI M/M.
    US - 13:30 - Core PPI M/M.
    US - 13:30 - Unemployment Claims.
    US - 15:00 - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
    US - 15:00 - CB Leading Index M/M.
    US - 15:30 - Natural Gas Storage.
    US - 16:00 - Crude Oil Inventories.
    UK - 17:00 - MPC Member Gieve Speaks.
    US - 18:15 - FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks.

    Friday February 20th:

    FR - 07:45 - CPI M/M.
    FR - 08:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
    FR - 08:00 - Flash Services PMI.
    GE - 08:30 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
    GE - 08:30 - Flash Services PMI.
    EU - 09:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
    EU - 09:00 - Flash Services PMI.
    UK - 09:30 - Retail Sales M/M.
    US - 13:30 - Core CPI M/M.
    US - 13:30 - CPI M/M.

    EU - Europe wide
    FR - France
    UK - United Kingdom
    US - United States
    GE - Germany


    The week ahead.
    After a terrible Tuesday, markets never really recovered last week. After rallying into Treasury Secretary Geithner’s speech on Tuesday, US markets unwound in spectacular fashion. It appears to have been a case of markets expecting clarity from the new US administration, and getting nothing of the sort. The Dow Jones touched its lowest levels since November 2008 at one point.

    Whether it was a case of ‘sell the news’ or a technical sell off, there’s no getting away from the fact that yesterday’s fall will have left central bankers and government officials cursing.
    The rule book is being re-written by the week, as officials try one solution after another. Much was made of Bernanke’s expertise on the Great Depression, and arguably his dramatic interventions have helped stave off a financial apocalypse. However, right now it’s a blank slate, the scary thing about the current crisis is that nobody really knows how bad it will get, and when it will turn around.
    Lloyds Group threw the markets another banking cluster bomb on Friday; seemingly out of nowhere Lloyds announced a £7bn write-down in HBOS’s corporate division. The shares closed the day down nearly a third on the news. According to CEO Eric Daniels, these losses reflect the application of a more conservative recognition of risk, and the further deterioration in the economic environment. Analysts at JP Morgan wrote a note the previous day saying “If the regulator were to require a more ‘comprehensive’ stress buffer, given that none of the banks have raised capital since, it would probably require them all coming to market, and probably requiring government capital.” (Cited in FT Alphaville). Judging by the HBOS announcement and the market’s reaction, JP Morgan may not be far off the mark.
    Another concern was the data released from the ECB which stated that borrowing from the marginal lending facility hit 10.4 billion Euros, well above recent averages and the highest since November 10th. It may be a blip, but this lending spike could imply that a major bank is in trouble. Irish banks are seeking recapitalisation and UK banks are thought to making use of the ECB’s facilities as well as their European counterparts.
    Bank of England Governor King, warned that Britain is in a ‘deep recession’ with the rate of contraction potentially reaching as high as 6%. Exactly where a deep recession becomes a depression is up for debate, and perhaps such a label can only be applied in retrospect. Markets are taking each day and each economic announcement as they come, with the unfortunate result being a continuation of short term volatility. Still, markets have held above the November lows for now. If these levels fail, it could be the defining point of 2009 for world stock markets.
    Oil continues to drop as global economic activity falters. On the other hand gold is on the rise and pushing back up towards $1000, as investors seek out safe havens while stock markets gyrate and central banks scour their text books for the next plan of action.

    Next week’s top trading events are the release of the MPC meeting minutes on Wednesday. Analysts will be looking for clues as to the likelihood of further cuts towards zero for UK interest rates. Later that afternoon we have Fed chairman Bernanke speaking, followed by the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Following the same theme, the Bank of Japan announced their overnight call rate in the early hours of Thursday. There is unlikely to be any movement, but the following press conference could spark some volatility as traders react to any additional central bank interventions.

    Last week oil fell to around $35 a barrel, yet oil majors such as BP managed to hold up relatively well. A No Touch trade predicting that BP won"t touch £4.60 at any time during the next two months (60 days) could return 62% at BetOnMarkets.


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