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BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Erik, Apr 27, 2009.

  1. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

    Jul 23, 2008
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    BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing
    Contents This Week:
    Economic calendar for week 27th April - 1st May 2009.
    Commentary: The week ahead.
    Economic Calendar for week 27th April - 1st May 2009

    **Note: All times GMT, not DST**

    Monday April 27th:

    GE - 06:00 - GfK Consumer Climate.
    UK - 08:30 - BBA Mortgage Approvals.
    EU - 16:45 - ECB President Trichet Speaks.

    Tuesday April 28th:

    UK - 08:00 - CBI Realise Sales.
    US - 13:00 - S&P/ CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y.
    US - 14:00 - CB Consumer Confidence.
    US - 14:00 - Richmond Manufacturing Index.

    Wednesday April 29th:

    EU - 08:00 - M3 Money Supply Y/Y.
    EU - 08:00- Private Loans Y/Y.
    EU - 09:00 - Consumer Confidence.
    US - 12:30 - Advance GDP Price Index Q/Q.
    US - 14:30 - Crude Oil Inventories.
    US - 18:15 - FOMC Statement.
    US - 18:15 - Federal Funds Rate.
    UK - 23:01 - GfK Consumer Confidence.

    Thursday April 30th:

    UK - 06:00 - Nationwide HPI M/M.
    GE - 07:55 - Unemployment Change.
    EU - 09:00 - CPI Flash Estimate Y/Y.
    EU - 09:00 - Unemployment Rate.
    US - 12:30 - Unemployment Claims.
    US - 12:30 - Core PCE Price Index M/M.
    US - 12:30 - Employment Cost Index M/M.
    US - 12:30 - Personal Spending M/M.
    US - 12:30 - Personal Income M/M.
    US - 13:45 - Chicago PMI.
    US - 14:30 - Natural Gas Storage.

    Friday May 1st:

    Bank holiday France, Switzerland, Germany & Italy.

    UK - 08:30 - Manufacturing PMI.
    UK - 08:30 - Net Lending to Individuals M/M.
    UK - 08:30 - Mortgage Approvals.
    US - 13:55 - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.
    US - 13:55 - Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
    US - 14:00 - Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
    US - 14:00 - ISM Manufacturing PMI.
    US - 14:00 - ISM Manufacturing Prices.
    US - 14:00 - Factory Orders M/M.

    EU - Europe wide
    FR - France
    UK - United Kingdom
    US - United States
    GE - Germany

    The week ahead.
    After a disastrous start to the week, financial markets rallied well on
    Friday to close the week unchanged or slightly up. The CAC, DAX and FTSE
    closed the week up 0.4%, 0.73% and 1.65% respectively. The S&P 500 and Down
    closed the week down 0.23% and 0.65%, with the strongest performance coming
    from the Nasdaq 100 which rose 3.24%, its 7th winning week on the trot. The
    Nasdaq was buoyed by strong performances from Ebay, and Microsoft. Amazon
    also continued its incredible run in the face of the bear market, since the
    November lows it has risen 141.11%.

    In keeping with the theme of the last few months, most of the movements last
    week were led by sentiment concerning the banking sector. The week started
    badly on fears that US banks might fail the stress test, and ended
    positively when it emerged that it was likely that all had passed. However,
    the release of the stress tests seemed to bring more questions than answers
    with many believing that the test wasn’t particularly stressful. Some
    analysts point out that the ‘adverse’ conditions tested do not go anywhere
    near far enough. The suspicion is that the US treasury didn’t want any
    further shocks to rock the financial sector, a decision that may come back
    to haunt them.

    As expected, the budget was the focus of analysis in the UK last week. The
    FTSE was largely unaffected by the budget with most companies gathering
    their earnings from across the globe, not just the UK. Currency markets were
    the most volatile as traders reacted to the announcement that UK borrowing
    will hit a peacetime record of £175bn, or 12% of GDP. Darling surprised many
    by adjusting his forecast for UK growth for 2009 downwards to -3.5%. This
    puts the treasury’s forecast in line with other institutions such as the
    IMF, but Darling’s forecasts for 2009 and 2011 are still far more optimistic
    than any other outside organisation other than the Bank of England.
    Considering how inaccurate the government’s forecasts have been so far, it
    is little wonder that currency traders didn’t believe a word of it, and sold
    the pound aggressively against the euro, dollar and yen. The pound gave back
    all the gains made against the euro last week as UK GDP figures released on
    Friday showed that Darling’s projections may already be overly optimistic.

    Increasingly a barometer of global economic confidence, June crude oil
    contracts closed the week above $51, while curiously; natural gas futures
    continued their down trend closing the week at $3.37, some 75% down from the
    peak last June. Gold endured a better week, closing up significantly for the
    first time in five weeks. The highlights for the coming week include the
    FOMC statement on Tuesday and ISM manufacturing on Friday. The UK has a
    number of economic announcements, including the UK Nationwide house price
    index on Wednesday, and the Halifax House price index also expected at some
    point in the week. Although questions remain over accounting tricks employed
    by banks and the depth of the stress test from the US government, there
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