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BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Erik, May 4, 2009.

  1. Erik

    Erik BetOnMarkets Representative

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    BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing
    Contents This Week:
    Economic calendar for week 4th -8th May
    Commentary: The week ahead.
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    Economic Calendar for week 4th - 8th May

    **Note: All times GMT, not DST**

    Monday May 4th:

    Bank Holiday UK & Japan.

    GE - 06:00 - Retail Sales M/M.
    EU - 08:00 - Final Manufacturing PMI.
    EU - 08:30 - Sentix Investor Confidence.
    US - 14:00 - Pending Home Sales M/M.
    US - 14:00 - Construction Spending M/M.
    EU - 18:00 - FOMC Member Lacker Speaks.

    Tuesday May 5th:

    Bank Holiday Japan.

    UK - 08:30 - Construction PMI.
    EU - 09:00 - PPI M/M.
    US - 14:00 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies.
    US - 14:00 - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
    UK - 23:01 - Nationwide Consumer Confidence.

    Wednesday May 6th:

    US - 02:30 - FOMC Member Yellen Speaks.
    UK - 08:00 - Services PMI.
    EU - 09:00 - Retail Sales M/M.
    UK - 09:30 - BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y.
    US - 12:15 - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
    US - 14:30 - Crude Oil Inventories.
    US - 21:30 - FOMC Member Yellen Speaks.

    Thursday May 7th:

    FR - 06:45 - Trade Balance.
    GE - 10:00 - Factory Orders M/M.
    UK - 11:00 - MPC Rate Statement.
    UK - 11:00 - Official Bank Rate.
    EU - 11:45 - Minimum Bid Rate.
    EU - 12:30 - ECB Press Conference.
    US - 12:30 - Unemployment Claims.
    US - 12:30 - Prelim Nonfarm Productivity Q/Q.
    US - 12:30 - Prelim Unit Labour Costs. Q/Q.
    US - 13:15 - FOMC Member Evans Speaks.
    US - 14:30 - Natural Gas Storage.
    US - 19:00 - Consumer Credit M/M.

    Friday May 8th:

    Bank holiday France.

    GE - 06:00 - Trade Balance.
    UK - 08:30 - PPI Input M/M.
    UK - 08:30 - PPI Output M/M.
    GE - 10:00 - Industrial Production M/M.
    US - 12:30 - Non Farm Employment Change.
    US - 12:30 - Unemployment Rate.
    US - 12:30 - Average Hourly Earnings M/M.
    US - 17:00 - FOMC Member Lacker Speaks.
    US - 17:15 - FOMC Member Evans Speaks.


    EU - Europe wide
    FR - France
    UK - United Kingdom
    US - United States
    GE - Germany


    The week ahead.
    It was another good week for equity markets with the banks leading the
    charge. Barclays was the front runner, rising to over £2.90 at one point and
    gaining over 10% on Thursday alone. Barclays is benefiting from the so
    called ‘independence’ premium, and speculation over the potential gains to
    be made with the sale of its BGI unit. With today’s gains, Barclays has
    overtaken Britain’s only other remaining independent bank, in terms of
    returns over the last year. Barclays has lost 40.53%, while HSBC has lost
    45.50% over the last 365 days. Interestingly, HSBC is the only major UK bank
    which hasn’t rallied by 55% or more in the last month. Santander’s results
    certainly helped sentiment in the sector across Europe. It wasn’t just the
    banks enjoying some welcome interest, BSkyB posted excellent results that
    showed there was some truth in the belief that people will spend more on
    home entertainment in a recession. Sky’s profits were also boosted by demand
    for its HD service. US markets were also strong with Nasdaq 100 making it
    eight winning weeks on the trot. The rally came despite record continuing
    jobless claims in the US. However, it is thought that the decline in the
    four week average of weekly claims is pointing to a peak. Investors know
    they aren’t out of the woods yet, but perhaps what we’re seeing at the
    moment is a belief that financial Armageddon has been averted. Markets were
    idle on Friday, with most of Europe enjoying a bank holiday, and UK traders
    eyeing the clock ahead of their long weekend. In fact, Friday’s trading on
    the FTSE 100 was the smallest since June 2008. Historically markets tend to
    bottom when volatility subsides. The VIX options volatility index continues
    to drop and credit markets indicate a renewed appetite for risk taking. It
    appears that traders may finally believe they have a grip on things. The
    world economy may continue to plummet, but at a much more predictable rate.
    Whether markets are too complacent, and in for a rude awakening or not, is
    another question. The coming week starts in earnest with the release of US
    Pending home sales on Monday. Tuesday afternoon brings two market moving
    announcements with Fed chairman Bernanke testifying alongside the release of
    the latest ISM non manufacturing PMI data. Wednesday brings the ADP Non Farm
    Employment Change data, with UK Services PMI in the morning. Thursday is
    busy with the MPC and ECB releasing their official bank rates along with
    news of any planned central bank actions. The ECB are expected to cut rates
    by a quarter of 1%. The release of the bank stress test is tentatively
    planned for the afternoon. Then to cap off an already busy week, we have US
    Non Farm Payrolls on Friday. After rising for 8 weeks on the trot, the
    Nasdaq 100 could be due a pull back.

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