Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

momo3HC

Sergeant
Messages
193
Hi all. I`m opening this thread to follow BTC movement closer, share my ideas and discus the whole situation with it. Here`s my latest view.

Nothing major has changed lately. Consolidation time. Let`s see the chart by chart explanation below.
1st chart :
2019-10-11 22_24_42-BTCUSD 8326.56 ▼ −2.98% Unnamed – Opera.png

First, the price level of around $7700 is still playing as a strong support. If we go over $9100 I can say we`re safe and definitely can look for further hights, and the opposite - if we go below $7700 we`re not good. Second, if we check Simple Moving Averages (100 and 200 days) and their connectivity, things are looking not so bad. The bad points about 200SMA is that the price tried to pass above it last two days but unfortunately it failed for now. The 100SMA is still above 200 SMA but seems like it`s trying to go under. Stochastic right now is not so good too - going into overbought zone.
As a conclusion in short-term i`ve got to say it`s something like 70:30 for bearish scenario. For mid and long-term i`m more than bullish. I have a strategy which in short is to open a Long positions with every $1000 price drop (of course with mind of the leverage and the first position size). And because of the all mentioned above I`m also opening some small Short position just to catch this short-term bear market with SL $9200.
2nd chart:
coinmetrics.png

As I said last time i`m still HODL-ing my BTC and even compounding it. From the second chart it`s seems it`s not only me. Based on Coinmetrics one cohort of traders are owners with a cost basis above $13,000. Prior to the market sell-off, roughly 720,000 Bitcoin belonged to this cohort. Analysis of on-chain activity indicates that virtually all Bitcoin owned by this cohort remained dormant during the sell-off, suggesting that capitulation among these traders is complete. Only 4,140 of the 720,000 Bitcoin moved over the past nine days and did not contribute meaningfully to selling pressure. These traders have apparently become numb to a 20 percent drop in prices and are now firmly long-term holders.
3rd chart:
2019-10-11 22_15_00-Microsoft Edge.png

Just a comparison between the situation back in 2014-2016 and now. The only difference is that the things now are moving faster.
BTC is dying? I don`t think so!
 

RachelEB

Private, 1st Class
Messages
60
Very thorough break down of where you see things playing out, will follow with interest.

Would like to hear your thoughts on whether Bitcoin will test the major support base at 6000 before making its move north again?
 

momo3HC

Sergeant
Messages
193
Very thorough break down of where you see things playing out, will follow with interest.

Would like to hear your thoughts on whether Bitcoin will test the major support base at 6000 before making its move north again?
I`ve already prepared some interesting data for this week analysis but be patient. ;)
 

momo3HC

Sergeant
Messages
193
Let`s see the actual situation with BTC.

1st chart:
BTC 19102019.jpg

All about technical is almost the same like previous weekend.First, the price level of around $7700 is still playing as a strong support. If we go over $9100 I can say we`re safe and definitely can look for further hights, and the opposite - if we go below $7700 we`re not good. Second, if we check Simple Moving Averages (100 and 200 days) and their connectivity, things are looking not so bad. The bad points about 200SMA is that the price tried to pass above it a couple of times but unfortunately it failed for now. The 100SMA is still above 200 SMA but seems like it`s trying to go under. The new add in technical chart is Madrid Moving Average Ribbon. It seems like good technical tool so i`ll watch it in near future. I`m seeing it bearish now but the lines seems parallel already so that can be a signal for turning back soon.

2nd chart:
PNG image.png

Thanks to Glassnode we can see what the institutions and big players are doing right now – COMPOUNDING. Yes, the addresses owning at least 1000BTC are extremely growing. What do you think about it? If BTC will gonna crash do you think such money will be invested in it?


Here`s 2019 BTC live address counts by balance:

Up to 0.1 BTC: 2.845.298 +12.0%

Up to 1 BTC: 785.685 +11.8%
Up to 10 BTC: 153.083 +2.5%
Up to 100 BTC: 16.093 -3.1%
Up to 1000 BTC: 2.172 +17.6%
Up to 10000 BTC: 110 +11.1%

That`a all for this week.

P.S. No change into my HODL and trading positions.
 

momo3HC

Sergeant
Messages
193
What a week for BTC!!! o_O

First of all i`ve had prepared some analysis for this week in Thursday and it was a bit negative for BTC but all`ve had changed yesterday. I haven`t more time to analyze anything than technical so here it is.
BTC 26102019.jpg

First, the price level of around $9200-9300 now is around the down side of the last descending triangle. If a daily candle close over $9200 I can say we`re safe and definitely can look for further hights, and this level will act as a next support. No matter of the last mentioned we already have 2 supports now. $8500 is the first. It`s 50% Fibo level and also it`s around the last side way move. The second support if we brake the first is $7200 (61.8% Fibo). This support reacted almost perfect this week.

About Moving Averages:

50 SMA -The price already passed above it which is a very good sign.
200 SMA - The price already passed above it which is a very good sign.
20 EMA - The price already passed above it which is a very good sign.

Death Cross is trying to form between 50 and 200 SMA but i`m not relying so much on that sign cuz it`s very slowed in time indicator and back in time we have an examples of fake death crosses.

May be the most good news I find into the Volume. Volume is way above $2bil. (for the 10 real exchanges) for the last 24hrs. I can`t remember for how long i`ve not seen such big volume and because of that we can`t talk about any manipulations.

That`a all for this week.

P.S. No change into my HODL and trading positions.
 

DaveT

Sergeant
Messages
182
Unbelievable move for BTC in the last 24 hours. It shouldn't surprise me anymore but it always does!
 

momo3HC

Sergeant
Messages
193
Quiet week for BTC.
First of all seems that we all must thanks to China for the last week bomb.

1st chart:
BTC 02112019.jpg

Nothing major changed from the last weekend except that we saw this wasn`t just a momentum and the price level of around $9200 now is acting like a strong support level. That`s around the down side of the last descending triangle. There`s also 2 next supports:
$8500 is the first. It`s 50% Fibo level and also it`s around the last side way move.
$7200 is the second. It`s 61.8% Fibo. This support reacted almost perfect last time.

About Moving Averages:
50 SMA -The price is still above it which is a very good sign.
200 SMA - The price is still above it which is a very good sign.
21 EMA - The price is still above it which is a very good sign.
Death Cross is trying to form between 50 and 200 SMA but i`m not relying so much on that sign cuz it`s very slowed in time indicator and the 200 SMA is still heading north.

For me the long-term prognosis is green for sure but as you`ll see from the chart in short-term I prefer to see some descend to $8500 level and then continuation of upward move to the next ATH. This kind of movement won`t be such a surprise and it will be even a healthy move.

2nd chart:
02112019.png

Thanks to well-known Willy Woo and some other very good educational source called Forex.Academy we can see this chart which in very simple way points where are we in this moment through Bitcoin price model. The conclusion here is very simple – ATH ahead of us!

That`a all for this week.

P.S. No change into my HODL and trading positions.
 
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