Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

[steveday76]

Thanks for your analysis and positivity. Have a good week all.

 

[georgequayle]

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Hi all.
Well, Bitcoin dropped 3% from the last week and around 7% from it`s high at the beginning of this one. Is it so bad? I don`t think so! Why? I`ll show you below so don`t freak out but zoom out.

Last week daily chart VS this week possible re-charting (chart1)
Last week I was talking about an ascending triangle and 2 (or even 3) possible scenarios. At the beginning of this week all seems like scenario A is in play until the decline that came from nowhere. My personal opinion is that both the peak to $12500 and the drop to $11400 are just a fake moves if we`re looking at this ascending triangle chart. That`s why i`ve tried to ignore it and search for another pattern and almost immediately I saw the ascending channel (trend). A perfect one. Which pattern from this 2 you`ll use is your decision but at this moment i`m 70:30 to the ascending channel (trend).

Weekly chart (chart 2)
Here are 2 things to say. The 1st one is that this chart was initially made at 28.06.2020. Look at the green arrows which are pointing the possible price move. Even I was surprised how accurate are they till now. The most important thing here is the newly added fibo retracement from the last summer 14K top to the corona drop to 3.8K this year. What can we see? A beautiful fibo golden pocket between 10K and 10.5K. This 10.5K sounds familiar right? So what`s the conclusion here? That`s even if we fall far below this ascending triangle or if we fall below this ascending channel, then we have a REALLY STRONG support at 10.5K and even a bit below this (around 10K).

Actual PA situation:

• Support and resistance:
• Support:
• 1st support - $10500 – last MAJOR resistance.
• 2nd support - $9000
• Resistance:
• 1st resistance - $12100-12500 – almost the last bigger resistance before the clear skies, accordingly to VPVR. You saw where we stopped this week – exactly at $12500.
• 2nd resistance - $14000 – the last resistance before the 20K test I can say (the last top + VPVR). Somewhere between 1st and 2nd resistance is $10K, which can act as a support too cuz of the psychological level.
• 10 EMA – the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
• 21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
• Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
• Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 17 weeks bullish signaling (despite this week`s red candle for now).
• Weekly pivot point is $11708,01.

That`s all for now and like i`ve said it before – these corrections are healthier than you think.
See ya next time.

looking good across the board

 

[ForexTus]

Great post, thank you

 

[K_Robdog]

The bulls took the weekend off… Hopefully getting some rest for the next one!

 

[MoBest]

That's a good thread. Following with interest.

 

[louise.kepinska]

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Hi all.
Well, nothing major happened this week for me and despite the very good green candle, which is forming, there`s nothing more to say about the PA. Other than that, there`s something very good and major happened with Bitcoin but you`ll see it from the second chart.

Actual PA situation (chart 1):

• Support and resistance:
• Support:
• 1st support - $10500 – last MAJOR resistance. This support has been tested already with this night drop and done it`s job perfectly. That`s why I’m bullish about this drop.
• 2nd support - $9000
• Resistance:
• 1st resistance - $12500 – almost the last bigger resistance before the clear skies, accordingly to VPVR.
• 2nd resistance - $14000 – the last resistance before the 20K test I can say (the last top + VPVR).
• Somewhere between 1st and 2nd resistance is $10K, which can act as a support too cuz of the psychological level.

• 10 EMA – the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
• 21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
• Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
• Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 15 weeks bullish signaling.
• Weekly pivot point is $11035.14. We`re far from it so far, so I can say that next week can be positive too.
• BTC volatility is still under 40 actually so more movements can be expected. We`ve saw only a small part till now.

Bitcoin Realized price (chart2):

Thanks to Glassnode again we can check the Bitcoin Realized price chart. It`s very simple and clear. The grey line is the BTC price. The orange line is Realized price. Realized Price is the Realized Cap divided by the current supply. Or simply said that`s the price of all BTC paid in circulation right now. This Realized price at the moment is around $6000 and even above, which is the new all time high (ATH). If we check back in the past, every time when we saw such ATH we`ve had a parabolic run and a new price ATH afterward. BUUULISH!!!

That`s all for now.
See ya next time.

Your analysis is always sooo good!
Thank you

 

[sebking1986]

Literally bounced off the resistance to the pip. Still holding nicely so be good to see another run at it this week.

 

[pezz55]

such big swooping movements across BTC at the moment. even with 7% and 3% gains and loss it is moving 1500 points which is to big for me to be trading wish you all the best

 

[momo3HC]

Hi all.
Well, another not so good week for Bitcoin for now but let`s see the bigger picture (in chart 2).

Ascending channel/trend broken (chart1)
Last week I was talking about an ascending channel/trend but at Wednesday it was broken down and now seems like it`s down line is acting like a resistance for the price. Let`s see how it will continue forward.

3 months chart (chart 2)
Now that`s may be the more important chart. Like you`ll see from the chart, every time when we close a 3 month candle above the descending trend line from the last ATH, the run for the next ATH is starting. Well we`re 32 days away from the close of the actual candle so we can only cross fingers to close it above. Don`t know about you but i`ll keep an eye on this chart for sure.

Actual PA situation:

• Support and resistance:
• Support:
• 1st support - $10500 – last MAJOR resistance.
• 2nd support - $9000 – also very important due to 3 month chart.
• Resistance:
• 1st resistance - $12100-12500 – almost the last bigger resistance before the clear skies, accordingly to VPVR. You saw where we stopped this week – exactly at $12500.
• 2nd resistance - $14000 – the last resistance before the 20K test I can say (the last top + VPVR). Somewhere between 1st and 2nd resistance is $10K, which can act as a support too cuz of the psychological level.
• 10 EMA – the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
• 21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
• Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
• Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 18 weeks bullish signaling (despite this week`s red candle for now).
• Weekly pivot point is $11828,22.

That`s all for now.
See ya next time.

 

[reece Rispoli]

great chart thank you