Bitcoin pause post inflation rally on recession fears


Bitcoin price extended its increase and surged above $21600 early this week, which is the highest level since September 2022. The strong upside momentum was boosted after the investors were convinced that the Federal Reserve would pause its rate-hike cycle in early 2023 and prepares to slow its current policy tightening pace following a solid decrease in December’s inflation data.

While the last 2 sessions we saw that the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency pairs struggling to break new highs following the release of weak economic data added to worries about a looming recession. The latest US economic data showed the US retail sales report posted a bigger decline than expected for December. US Industrial Production declined by -0.7% in December, the biggest decline since Sept 2021.

The prices also came under demand pressure after the Federal Reserve officials reiterated their commitment to keeping raising interest rates. Market expectations are now for a quarter of one percent (25bp) interest rate hike on February 1. Moving ahead, the overall momentum is expected to remain mixed as the investors are worried as there is no clear timeline about when rate hikes are likely to end and how deep the recession will be.

$BTCUSD short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, as long as the price holds above $20,000 levels, $BTC could see a resumption of the upside move. On the upper side, the key resistance level for the pair remains above $21,600, then the stronger resistance is $22,600, which is important to be stable above it for a continuing rise to $25,000 level. On the downside, in case the price is close below the key $20000 area, the slump will quickly extend toward the $19,300 then $18,800 mark.

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