฿ Bitcoin BTC 06 February - 06 August 2018 Technical update

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Hi Ahmed. Well, idea is simple - different quotes ;) Here I've used FX Choice chart of BTC.
Anyway, the major important thing is analysis itself, because you see forecast, our logic and tools that we use. You could transfer this analysis on quotes of any broker that you like and get "correct" numbers. This will change nothing.
I 100% agree with that analysis is most important. Yet these numbers acts as a validation and confirmation to trading idea which in this case was a big difference. However, I appreciate your efforts and views - just wanted to check!

There is this part of my response which will be great if you can comment on :)

I understand that this is a weekly analysis but it can be helpful (as you do for forex and gold) to point some areas where some patterns might form or in which area a short is more likely and so forth (in lower timeframes 1-D, 4-H and maybe 1-H.
 
Hi Sive,

Bitcoin updates appreciated. Am watching other Crypto Assets too..as it seems good correlation and they follow Bitcoin price structure. I'm not invested in any crypto yet...but i will be when i think the time is right!

It would be nice to get an Elliot wave view on the Bitcoin Chart. I don't use it in my trading normally but it's great to see on much bigger scale and if you have confluence on weekly charts you can sometimes spot great turning points in markets. Bitcoin i think would be no different.! Right.!? ;-)

Spasibo.

BTC 04 June 2018 Technical update
(Uptades weekly, on Mondays)

As you can see last week has shown small range and barely impacts our previous analysis. Weekly chart mostly stands the same.
Two weeks ago we've mentioned warning signs for bulls, guys, and our worst expectations are coming to reality right now. On weekly chart BTC has failed to reach even minor COP target around 10 160$ and turned down. Trend has turned bearish and we've got first bearish stop grabber, which, in turn, suggests drop below recent lows of ~6 500$. Last week we've got another one, which starts to look as a tendency... Thus, on weekly chart overall picture has not changed, and looks bearish. If you're searching change to take investing long-term position on BTC - this is not the time to do it and it is necessary to wait when either BTC will drop below 6500$. Now we need to estimate first target that BTC could reach within 1-2 weeks.
View attachment 37836
Last week we already have mentioned classical truncation inside triangle - price was not able to reach upper border of triangle and turned down. According to classical technical analysis, this could be a early hint on downside breakout. No reasons to buy either. Now it is time to take a look at target that market should reach. They are major XOP target right from ABC pattern at top and second one - smaller AB=CD pattern from triangle. But both of them point on the same 4300$.
Second very important issue - we also could get large butterfly "Buy" with the same destination point. All targets coincide with daily oversold level as well.
Last week price has reached lower border of triangle and now shows minor pullback.
View attachment 37837

Things that we see on intraday chart make us think that current upside action has more retracement features. Upward action a bit choppy. On 4H chart it takes the shape of flag. Now we will kee an eye on 7600-7900 resistance area. This is former lows of the arms of failed H&S pattern:
View attachment 37838

On hourly chart upisde retracement could form "222" Sell pattern and downward action could re-establish. AB-CD target stands around the same 7900-8000$ area. This probably will be the target of this week, if, of course, BTC will not turn down earlier.
View attachment 37839
That's being said - bearish continuation pattern that we've mentioned last week, could be formed and, as we've suggested, it will be "222" Sell.
While long-term traders should wait reaching of ~4300$, where we will do additional analysis on perspective of bullish reversal, which could be triggered by daily butterfly "Buy". Currently we do not see any reasons to buy BTC.
 
Hi Sive,

Bitcoin updates appreciated. Am watching other Crypto Assets too..as it seems good correlation and they follow Bitcoin price structure. I'm not invested in any crypto yet...but i will be when i think the time is right!

It would be nice to get an Elliot wave view on the Bitcoin Chart. I don't use it in my trading normally but it's great to see on much bigger scale and if you have confluence on weekly charts you can sometimes spot great turning points in markets. Bitcoin i think would be no different.! Right.!? ;-)

Spasibo.
Yes, the major condition is liquidity. It works, I mean Dinapoli stuff, on any liquid market.
Well, I think we should ask Stag to give an EW comment on BTC here... ;)
 
Yes, the major condition is liquidity. It works, I mean Dinapoli stuff, on any liquid market.
Well, I think we should ask Stag to give an EW comment on BTC here... ;)

Hi guys, Sive asked me to post my view on Bitcoin so please find below a short EWP based analysis. Please keep in mind that I do not trade cryptos.

Before you start
For those who are not familiar with the Wave Principle, I highly recommend a 30 minues video tutorial demonstrating a method called the Kennedy Channeling Technique (KCT), a very simple approach that allows you to utilize the essence of the Wave Principle - without being an expert elliottician. Or if you are in a hurry, check my "super powerful" 15 slide quick start guide at the end of the post, it takes less then 3 minutes.​

The decline from ATH looks to be a corrective structure and can be viewed as complete founding bottom at 6481 (78.6% retracement). From 6481 we can count a pair of first and second waves so the rally from there seems to be in a corrective wave 2 phase or at the early stages of a wave 3 advance towards the green target zone.

Under this scenario, other than a corrective setback the Bitcoin should continue to strengthen. The 7016 area should hold as support and is considered critical for an immediately bullish outlook. If it is broken a decline back near to 6481 might occur but I think it would only delay the resumption of the larger Bitcoin advance triggered by breaking 7722 and keeping on towards 8555.

Regarding target prices, if it is going to be an (A)(B)(C) corrective recovery instead, the advance may find a top around 10277 (see grey channel) and a reversal may start from there.

All the best guys.

BTCUSD_h4_180605.gif
 
Hi guys, Sive asked me to post my view on Bitcoin so please find below a short EWP based analysis. Please keep in mind that I do not trade cryptos.
Thanks a lot, buddy for valuable insight.
brevity is the soul of wit.
 
Hi Sive,

Bitcoin updates appreciated. Am watching other Crypto Assets too..as it seems good correlation and they follow Bitcoin price structure. I'm not invested in any crypto yet...but i will be when i think the time is right!

It would be nice to get an Elliot wave view on the Bitcoin Chart. I don't use it in my trading normally but it's great to see on much bigger scale and if you have confluence on weekly charts you can sometimes spot great turning points in markets. Bitcoin i think would be no different.! Right.!? ;-)

Spasibo.
hi Brett,
Can you please direct me to the Sive's post: BTC 04 June 2018 Technical update as I can not see the attachments, thank you. Chalo
 
hi Brett,
Can you please direct me to the Sive's post: BTC 04 June 2018 Technical update as I can not see the attachments, thank you. Chalo

Hi mate,
Update for 4th of June doesn't exist any more, because I replace analysis in the same post. Once I've put it - it stands for a week and next Monday I update it. So i do not keep the history. This is done for easy surfing inside this thread.
You could read the recent one - it is mostly the same as week ago, because our ~4'300$ target has not been hit yet.
 
Hi mate,
Update for 4th of June doesn't exist any more, because I replace analysis in the same post. Once I've put it - it stands for a week and next Monday I update it. So i do not keep the history. This is done for easy surfing inside this thread.
You could read the recent one - it is mostly the same as week ago, because our ~4'300$ target has not been hit yet.
Thanks..as i have no clue..? :oops:
 
Hi Sive-

Thanks for the analysis.

I noticed that your focus is on when to long BTC, what about areas where to short it.

I mean do you think that there are some areas that we can focus on to go short (short term bounce) or you think it’s more likely that we continue the drop from here.

I would like to share with you this view and get your feedback

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nV7OTwdb/

Thx again
 
Hi mate,
Update for 4th of June doesn't exist any more, because I replace analysis in the same post. Once I've put it - it stands for a week and next Monday I update it. So i do not keep the history. This is done for easy surfing inside this thread.
You could read the recent one - it is mostly the same as week ago, because our ~4'300$ target has not been hit yet.
Dear Sive, Thank you very much for your reply, I do appreciate it.
I am ready to follow up your great assistance, Just want you to know how much you have helped me through the years, I am still learning from a great master, and now with bitcoin!!, muchas gracias
 
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