฿ Bitcoin BTC/USD Daily Video, October 07, 2021

gpeter991

Private, 1st Class
Messages
48
Thank you for your guidance Sive. You are really the only one out there to share your knowledge in such a complete and precise way. Just noticed, I am following your posts almost 10 years, So this is crazy for me, so I can only imagine how it feels for you. Surely you made an incredible impact on all of us. Thank you for your work. And now coming to my question. As you say it seems we are in the expansion phase. So I am wondering if there is a good long term smart accumulation strategy on this way up (assuming we talk long term and say 150k-200k targets) How to accumulate smartly? I.E. if to sell part of the position on the mid term targets like 75k and "accumulate on pull back" (when and if it happens, and risk to be out of the game if the pull back does not happen) - this would be more aggressive/risky; or - just add to the existing position on the way - thus playing it safe. Not expecting any straightforward recommendations, but I guess for the forumers it would be great to understand the dynamics on the way up and how deep any retracements could be in general. Meaning if we talk about 75k, what is the probability of retracement on such target... Cheers and have a good rest of the week.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
15,167
Hi Peter, well in general you've said everything correct.
if to sell part of the position on the mid term targets like 75k and "accumulate on pull back" (when and if it happens, and risk to be out of the game if the pull back does not happen) - this would be more aggressive/risky;
Yes, to do such things you should have very accurate strategy of reversal predictions. In most cases you miss - either too early out or not getting in.

or - just add to the existing position on the way - thus playing it safe.
Yes, this is common approach. The usual framework is as follows:
1. Taking initial position with pre-defined stop;
2. At some point move stop to breakeven. So, from risk management - you already do not have any risky position and you could take additionally another one. So you could behave as you have no position at all.
3. You're not intruding in natural price action. When pullback happens you take 2nd position with some stop;
4. Once major tendency continues - you move b/e stop from the 1st position in profit area, below some local lows - either most recent or preceding ones, a bit lower (if we have bullish tendency).
5. Repeat steps 2-4. As a result you get few positions with the same total stop in profit area and most recent position with some stop with risk.

While you're following this tendency - you have to control vital points, major resistance levels, extensions etc.
how deep any retracements could be in general. Meaning if we talk about 75k, what is the probability of retracement on such target...

It is not very difficult. While you're following the tendency, on your main time frame market should not form reversal swing. So, with an upward action HH and HL should be formed. Hence retracement might be in most cases not deeper than to K-area around major 3/8 or major 5/8, but sometimes even smaller.
The depth of the retracement indirectly could be a result of whether we have some barrier on a way of the price, say OBought or tactic upside extension or resistance. In this case retracement probably will be deeper.
With the retracement the speed is matter as well. It should not look like collapse. Second - the timing. For example, if retracement stands for 15 bars around 3/8 support, this is stronger sign than drop to 5/8 support within 8 bars.
This is some common things that probably you know even better than me. Maybe I miss something, so guys, please add-on things that you think are important for this discussion.

Finally, in the course that I've written here, we've touched commonly these topics. So you could read them as well:
Recognizing the Trending market
Scaling of Position
 
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