฿ Bitcoin BTC/USD Weekly, August 20 - 24, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

Today we need to adjust our BTC short-term setup slightly. In fact, we still watch for downside retracement on houry chart, that we've discussed last week, but daily pattern has to be replaced. Previously we talked about B&B "Sell", but now, as market has failed to reach 3/8 Fib level within 3 sessions above 3x3 DMA - more chances to get DRPO "Buy" or, just downside continuation if it will not be formed:

Still, chances on appearing of DRPO are not bad, because on 4H we have H&S-kind price action, or, may be we even could classify it as Triple bottom, as arms stands too closed to the head. Anyway, this is reversal type formation and it supports idea of DRPO "Buy" on daily chart by far:

At the same time this pattern suggests deep retracement to form right arm (or 3rd bottom, whatever you like more). And on hourly chart now we watch for AB-CD pattern. It could be AB=CD, but I draw 1.618 AB-CD because it better matches to harmony of the H&S pattern - 1.618 target coincides with the bottom of left arm on 4H chart.
Market is forming a kind of triangle here and few hours ago it has failed to reach upper border of the pattern. Usually it tells about weakness and anticipates downside breakout:

That's being said, today we mostly expect downside action to ~6100$ area and then (probably tomorrow) our focus will be on DRPO "Buy" pattern on daily chart, which could trigger stronger upside action.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings, everybody

So, our yesterday suggestion on BTC drop is seemed to be correct. On daily chart we're mostly watching the same - DiNapoli DRPO "Buy" pattern, which could push price to 7200-7300$ area, but we still think that upward action should start from a bit lower levels:

Dealing with potential H&S pattern here, on 4H chart, makes us think that BTC should show another leg down, somewhere to 6100-6150 $ area to hold the harmony of the pattern and complete hourly pattern:

Now it's just a first AB=CD target is completed. IT's an OP. But taking in consideration the acceleration down to it, it makes us expect 1.618 continuation. Once it will be hit, this will be an area where we could think about long entry:

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

So our daily suggestion was correct, but intraday action was not quite so as we've expected... On daily we have a kind of DRPO "Buy" Look-alike setup. Yesterday we were waiting for second bottom of this pattern that closer to the first one, which could give us perfect DRPO, but we haven't got it as market jumped higher. Due significant difference between the bottoms of DRPO pattern, we call it as LAL - look-alike. Anyway it could lead market to 50%-61.8% resistance, which is typical DRPO target:

On 4H chart we're dealing the same H&S pattern and our upside expectations mostly are based on it:

Thus, market currently shows reaction on inner 1.618 Butterfly "Sell" pattern, but major AB=CD target around 7000-7100 has not been met yet. Ultimate H&S target and XOP target stand around 7500 which corresponds to major 5/8 daily Fib resistance level.
As soon as retracement will be over, upside action should continue. In general, market should hold above the neckline of our H&S pattern at 6600$ area - this is first 3/8 Fib support level. Lower we have K-support around 6475$:

 

[RogerTC]

On the weekly; stop grabber buy is in play. Target of the grabber will be the stops above 8500. Failure of stop grabber will be bearish and will let the market see new lows probably.

Looking at our daily; market retracing from good resistance zone recently. We do have another agreement resistance zone around 7400-7500. There is also gap at 7368 at CME futures which the market very likely go for to close it.

Oh the 4 hr ; 6620 confluence support and 6480 confluence support stands as good spots to long the market.

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

On the weekly; stop grabber buy is in play. Target of the grabber will be the stops above 8500. Failure of stop grabber will be bearish and will let the market see new lows probably.
View attachment 38946

Looking at our daily; market retracing from good resistance zone recently. We do have another agreement resistance zone around 7400-7500. There is also gap at 7368 at CME futures which the market very likely go for to close it.

View attachment 38947


Oh the 4 hr ; 6620 confluence support and 6480 confluence support stands as good spots to long the market.

View attachment 38948

Welcome back Roger and thanks for your analysis too!

If you could've posted only after an hour or so, the analysis will show a very confusing reaction (now at 6360).

I don't know if you or Sive are looking at the short/long on bitfinex. Shorts are almost at all time high and longs keep reducing the position. Even after yesterday reaction to the top, very little has changed for shorts (as if it didn't trigger enough stops). Yet price dropped like a rock!

Would the push up now considered as a bull trap, and/or failed H&S pattern?

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

4H chart is most important today, because picture that we see here - almost cancels perspective of upside action. DRPO "Buy" on daily chart also stands just in one step from failure:

Most important detail here - market has not reaced H&S target and dropped below neckline again. This is very bad news for bulls and half way to total collapse and H&S failure. So right now we call to not take any longs. Second issue - BTC stands at 5/8 support. Drop and close below it will turn daily DRPO LAL to Failure. Both patterns suggest drop below 5800 lows...

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

Yesterday we already have mentioned sentiment change on BTC market - failure to complete AB-CD target, based on H&S and drop below its neckline looks not very optimistic:

Current action makes us think that we now stand in common AB-CD retracement, which potentially should give "222" Sell and further downside action back to 5800 lows. Only action above recent 7000 top will change this picture: